What is Actual, Forecast & Previous? | Forex Factory

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What is Actual, Forecast & Previous?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 26, 2006 8:03am Oct 26, 2006 8:03am
I am a rookie in forexfactory and have some questions that couldn't find the answer anywhere:

1. What is the numbers below these terms(Actual, Forecast & Previous)? some are in percent others not.

2. There is an "M" or "K" beside some numbers. What does these letters mean?

3. Some numbers are negative. what does this mean?

I'm sure somebody answers me
  • #2
  • Oct 26, 2006 10:09am Oct 26, 2006 10:09am
Previous is the value of the data the last time it was released.

Forecast is what the analysts/economists think the value will be this time.

Actual is what the actual reported value for this time is.

Some data, such as Non Farm Payroll, are reported in thousands (K), and trade balances and what not are in millions (M) or billions (B)

The negative just means that the value went down over the period. For example, CPI could go down, which means consumer costs are down.

I would suggest reading a bunch on news trading like this before you attempt it.

andersenws
"Youth is the trustee of prosperity." - Benjamin Disraeli
  • #3
  • Aug 4, 2011 10:47am Aug 4, 2011 10:47am
What should one do if the "Actual", "Forecast" and "Previous" numbers are the same? Should one go ahead and *BUY* since it shows somewhat the currency is stable on the economic calendar? Especially when the *forecast* number is the same as the *actual*.
  • #4
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:02am Sep 14, 2011 1:02am
Quoting Kitemma
What should one do if the "Actual", "Forecast" and "Previous" numbers are the same? Should one go ahead and *BUY* since it shows somewhat the currency is stable on the economic calendar? Especially when the *forecast* number is the same as the *actual*.
I don't believe when actual and forecast are the same you should "buy". It depends on many factors, including the type of indicator, expectations of traders, magnitude of recent news, magnitude of upcoming news, and many other factors. so there is no general rule that when actual=forecast=forecast you should buy.
  • #5
  • Nov 18, 2022 1:10am Nov 18, 2022 1:10am
Guys did you notice that the Previous is different than the previous Actual on forexfactory economic calculator !! Please help me to know the reason of difference between last actual and current previous on the calender
  • #6
  • Nov 19, 2022 1:01pm Nov 19, 2022 1:01pm
Can anybody PLEASE help? I've spent all day trying to find this

When is the CPI forecast data released? I have found many conflicting sources and is frustrating the hell out of me

What date/time is that info released and viewable please can anyone help
  • #7
  • Dec 26, 2022 3:33am Dec 26, 2022 3:33am
The forecast is the analysis trader makes for the trades by estimating their relative value. When real data beats forecast we made, the value of the currency increases. Currency tends to decline if actual data results are worse than anticipated.
  • #8
  • Feb 17, 2023 12:33am Feb 17, 2023 12:33am
Is there any need of previous data because it didn’t worked for example> if previous data is -10 and actual data is -5 so should we call it positive impact because even the data is in minus value but it’s better than previous data so it should be positive and bullish price action should happen?If am wrong please tell me i lost my money by using like this.

Or no previous data is used to predict impact
like if value is in minus so it’s a bearish impact,
and if value is in plus it would bullish impact.
please tell me
  • #9
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:56am Feb 17, 2023 5:56am
Quoting divyanshu000
Is there any need of previous data because it didn’t worked for example> if previous data is -10 and actual data is -5 so should we call it positive impact because even the data is in minus value but it’s better than previous data so it should be positive and bullish price action should happen?If am wrong please tell me i lost my money by using like this. Or no previous data is used to predict impact like if value is in minus so it’s a bearish impact, and if value is in plus it would bullish impact. please tell me
If you are a short term investor then this data is useless for you. You can NOT predict the impact using this data. This data should be used with other economic data and information to provide some guideline of what is going on with currency/country.
  • #10
  • Feb 18, 2023 8:06am Feb 18, 2023 8:06am
I trade in H1 and H4 timeframes only.
Well till now i was always comparing the actual data to previous data then predicting the up down.
{Scenario-1}please understand it with these two examples below~
[eg1> (actual data) -5 is better than (previous data) -10, so in this case i predict bullish because actual data is better than previous data even it’s in the negative number but better than previous data]
[eg2> (actual data) 5 is worst than (previous data) 10, so in this case i predict bearish because actual data is worster than previous data even in the positive number but worster than previous data]
I only look for better or worster than previous data for up and down prediction and it worked always yet but who knows i was lucky and wrong.
That’s why i was looking for clarification for this serious issue.
{Scenario-2}
What make bullish and bearish impact?
Can i say -5 is simply bearish because it’s in negative number, no matter if it’s better than previous data?
Can i say 5 is simply bullish because it’s in positive number, no matter if it’s worster than previous data?
So if scenario-2 is the right answer so what is the the point to see previous data if it’s not effective here ?
If scenario-1 is the right answer so i will continue to do same thing.
  • #11
  • Feb 19, 2023 10:34pm Feb 19, 2023 10:34pm
As quinn09 said
Quoting quinn09
The forecast is the analysis trader makes for the trades by estimating their relative value. When real data beats forecast we made, the value of the currency increases. Currency tends to decline if actual data results are worse than anticipated.
So I don't think that previous data have weight here. The market reacts to the difference between forecast and actual data. You can't just buy because some data is better then it was a month ago. This data only represents one piece of the puzzle, in some days you may have 4 news on usd and some of them will be positive and some negative. What is your risk management? And as you said, you lost money by using like this, looks like it doesn't work, or if it worked for some time then you should find the reason why you lost your money. I can't imagine trading your scenarios.
  • #12
  • Feb 19, 2023 10:49pm Feb 19, 2023 10:49pm
Quoting samjpiper
Can anybody PLEASE help? I've spent all day trying to find this When is the CPI forecast data released? I have found many conflicting sources and is frustrating the hell out of me What date/time is that info released and viewable please can anyone help
I am not sure, but if you are talking about FORECAST data, then it will be different on the different sources and it can be released at any time. It's the forecast data, anyone can do a forecast, I can say that CPI will be around 7%, that is my forecast, you can use it or not. There is a schedule for the actual data release, not for the forecast data.
  • #13
  • Mar 11, 2023 8:02am Mar 11, 2023 8:02am
Sup Guys, I am new here. Can y'all help me understand something, yesterday it was NFP news so I checked, the reading said the dollar was strong enough to buy, it was a beautiful buy but as soon as the news hit the dollar market started selling so anyone who has a clue, can you help me understand.
  • #14
  • May 29, 2024 3:46pm May 29, 2024 3:46pm
Hey guys, I'm a new member here. Can someone help me understand something, when the 'forecast' is less than 'previous' which one is safer or let me say which action would you take as a trader between buying and selling when trading at that time? Could it possibly be a down trend an up trend or maybe it just depends. I'm so confused.
  • #15
  • Jun 12, 2024 11:17pm Jun 12, 2024 11:17pm
Quoting andersenws
is the value of the data the last time it was released. Forecast is what the analysts/economists think the value will be this time. Actual is what the actual reported value for this time is. Some data, such as Non Farm Payroll, are reported in thousands (K), and trade balances and what not are in millions (M) or billions (B) The negative just means that the value went down over the period. For example, CPI could go down, which means consumer costs are down. I would suggest reading a bunch on news trading like this before you attempt it. andersenws...
I have Just Two Questions If you can solve I will be too happy and I will understand that here have humanity In human
.......I am searching from a long time that how can i find
Actual data before the announcement?
and can i understand by myself on Previous data and Forecast data that what will be the the actual data comes kindly i am sure you can solve my this problem ......
...... Thanks I will be waiting for your response........
  • #16
  • Feb 11, 2025 4:52am Feb 11, 2025 4:52am
Can someone help. I know how to read the news if it is displayed like this ''Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;''. But how do I read it if it displays as
''More hawkish than expected is good for currency;''? As no data appears for Actual, Forecast, Previous headings.. Thanks
  • #17
  • Feb 18, 2025 10:53pm Feb 18, 2025 10:53pm
Quoting KevNeale64
Can someone help. I know how to read the news if it is displayed like this ''Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;''. But how do I read it if it displays as ''More hawkish than expected is good for currency;''? As no data appears for Actual, Forecast, Previous headings.. Thanks
This means that the market is reacting to the tone of the central bank not the actual numbers. Hawkish means raising the rates or keeping them high. When its hawkish, the currency usually goes up. The opposite of hawkish is dovish which means cutting the rates or being cautious, here the currency may drop.
  • #18
  • Last Post: Jul 25, 2025 2:19am Jul 25, 2025 2:19am

  1. No numbers are shown because the release is qualitative, like a central bank statement or speech.
  2. “More hawkish than expected” means the central bank sounds stricter (likely to raise interest rates).

    1. This is positive for the currency (it may strengthen).

  3. “More dovish than expected” means the central bank sounds softer (likely to cut or hold rates).

    1. This is negative for the currency (it may weaken)

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