Price itself it's an indicator
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 7,083 Posts
trend can’t be dead because trends dosen’t exist. {image} {image}
Surely a pair can move in a certain direction for the day, which can be classed as Trend
IMHO
Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
Counter-Trend Entry Return This Week:
-5.7%
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Member | 7,083 Posts
{quote} Hi Erebus, i was just sarcastic. Of course trends exist. Even if you trade a mean reversion system it's still trend trading in a way. Every year in the last 200+ years someone says trend is dead and still someone makes money trend trading. He asserts that as soon you define a trend every one else has taken a position and in a way it's true but everyone use different lookback periods for entry/exit, atr stop loss, pyramiding/scaling in or out, trailing the stop or not. Even the portfolio used to make the trades it's very important. {image}...
I understand now, thanks
Thanks for the article, but using SP500 to check for trend?
The Stock market is designed to inherently go up, so for sure there will be times when it does in fact, go into an uptrend.
Maximize wins, minimize loss, stay in the game as long as you can
Counter-Trend Entry Return This Week:
-5.7%
{quote} A HA, you got me, darn, can't even find an argument on the internet these days
People really should read books, article/interview and speeches of the top traders like Marcus, Kovner, Soros, Seykota, Dunn, PTJ. Drukenmiller the legend himself speaks in one of his speeches about a friend of his pyramiding huge in and going with the trend.
Price itself it's an indicator
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 3,651 Posts
Simply not true. If you understand that price always returns to the median one can, put together a pretty effective trend trading strategy. You can add to your position until it has reached your long-term median. On my model you start building your position when price is completely out and away from the median lines
..... absolutely....that eurcad 21/22 trend was 3000 pips..... usdjpy was 5000....
many more like in size and duration.....
it just depends on how we want to trade as to what we see..... some see support and resistance everywhere..... some see to liquidity and supply.......
i see trends.....
and i'm still standin......h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Been And Gone. | 1,702 Posts
I saw this thread and couldn't resist. Without fail, I always fall clean off my chair when opinion makers try to carry an idea without first seeing how close to the edge of the cliff they themself are already standing.
Exhibit A
If you, are a person, how many view points can you hold in your brain at any one time?
Exhibit B
How formed and unformed is your thinking, to actually try to argue something that has already been proven AND disproven AND reconsidered?
Eg.....
Literally almost everyone I have ever met in the last say 40yrs, claims their ideas and thinking is 'right' or 'better' or 'best'. That's why these public forum trading websites are such a laugh for me. Why? Because most people waste A LOT of time. I mean HEAPS of time. So much so, that the attached pic I just stuck here, according to some people, would be BS, while others would say it's "true" and others might say it's 'kinda right'. The problem with all that, is, how the hell do you know anything? This site and the internet is so full of itself that if I introduced you to some real life traders/investors who just do what they do and keep it to themself, they probably wouldn't live up to your expectations..... despite the fact that they do VERY well for themselves year in and out.
It's also fascinating to watch people peruse and move through a topic or subject about trading, then move on to another topic, without appreciating that their anchors for thinking about the two (possibly and seemingly unrelated topics and subjects) possess a different or even contradictory anchor. And this of course leads to a different opinion about each. Why is this important?
Simple. People don't usually give themself enough credit for properly using the tools they were born with.
Trends are therefore a fascination, regardless of which side your opinion falls.
So for me, I say to each side of the argument ....
Grow up. Not being offensive or insulting here. But a genuine call to arms. If you stick to one 'style' you will inevitably lose. Why? Overuse of one style creates blindspots. And these then create deeper blindspots that will leech into your real life. Don't believe me? Just look around at all the "experienced traders" and the "high impact" people, then look at the 'new members'. All of the real to life traders/investors I have known do not advertise anything re: what they do. EVER. It's not about edge, it's about self respect.
What will be intriguing for me here, will be to see how many people dismiss all this and how many have the sense to realize this is something you'll need to deal with eventually, so why not now?!
If you do not learn to grow out of an opinion, then you cannot get better.
Everything has a trend ...... once the pieces have presented and you glue all the relevant pieces together. Context is what helps you see what others do not.
Eg. - how much debt an entity carries over, has an enormous impact on its currency exposure. But you won't find too many people chatting about that. Why not? "It's not on the chart and it's not on the forum" (booohoo). Oh no.
Context.
So yeah, when you've been around long enough, it becomes obvious how and where people are going wrong. And it's NOT how good your chart looks...... unless you're in playschool of course. Hehehehehe.
And people providing "commentary" always gives me great belly laughs as well. It reminds me of the same silliness you see over on the "news" threads on this site and others of the 'happenings'. People yakking and yet nothing is learned.
There's fakers, there's breakers and then there's makers.
School's out people, time to try on those big shoes.
Happy trading and learning.
Peter
Exhibit A
If you, are a person, how many view points can you hold in your brain at any one time?
Exhibit B
How formed and unformed is your thinking, to actually try to argue something that has already been proven AND disproven AND reconsidered?
Eg.....
Literally almost everyone I have ever met in the last say 40yrs, claims their ideas and thinking is 'right' or 'better' or 'best'. That's why these public forum trading websites are such a laugh for me. Why? Because most people waste A LOT of time. I mean HEAPS of time. So much so, that the attached pic I just stuck here, according to some people, would be BS, while others would say it's "true" and others might say it's 'kinda right'. The problem with all that, is, how the hell do you know anything? This site and the internet is so full of itself that if I introduced you to some real life traders/investors who just do what they do and keep it to themself, they probably wouldn't live up to your expectations..... despite the fact that they do VERY well for themselves year in and out.
It's also fascinating to watch people peruse and move through a topic or subject about trading, then move on to another topic, without appreciating that their anchors for thinking about the two (possibly and seemingly unrelated topics and subjects) possess a different or even contradictory anchor. And this of course leads to a different opinion about each. Why is this important?
Simple. People don't usually give themself enough credit for properly using the tools they were born with.
Trends are therefore a fascination, regardless of which side your opinion falls.
So for me, I say to each side of the argument ....
Grow up. Not being offensive or insulting here. But a genuine call to arms. If you stick to one 'style' you will inevitably lose. Why? Overuse of one style creates blindspots. And these then create deeper blindspots that will leech into your real life. Don't believe me? Just look around at all the "experienced traders" and the "high impact" people, then look at the 'new members'. All of the real to life traders/investors I have known do not advertise anything re: what they do. EVER. It's not about edge, it's about self respect.
What will be intriguing for me here, will be to see how many people dismiss all this and how many have the sense to realize this is something you'll need to deal with eventually, so why not now?!
If you do not learn to grow out of an opinion, then you cannot get better.
Everything has a trend ...... once the pieces have presented and you glue all the relevant pieces together. Context is what helps you see what others do not.
Eg. - how much debt an entity carries over, has an enormous impact on its currency exposure. But you won't find too many people chatting about that. Why not? "It's not on the chart and it's not on the forum" (booohoo). Oh no.
Context.
So yeah, when you've been around long enough, it becomes obvious how and where people are going wrong. And it's NOT how good your chart looks...... unless you're in playschool of course. Hehehehehe.
And people providing "commentary" always gives me great belly laughs as well. It reminds me of the same silliness you see over on the "news" threads on this site and others of the 'happenings'. People yakking and yet nothing is learned.
There's fakers, there's breakers and then there's makers.
School's out people, time to try on those big shoes.
Happy trading and learning.
Peter
Trading's for those who learn independently. Everyone else is just blind.
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 3,651 Posts
Why would you bet your future on the past?
some of us will, without hesitation, bet our future trading on our past.... we know our past.....
this is peytons results so far for this current february.... 16 days.....
she will gladly bet her next 12 days trading on her past 16..... or this year on last year......
her results are fairly predictable....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Been And Gone. | 1,702 Posts
I cannot speak for anyone else here, for me, the below picture accurately represents most people's psyche in 2023.
Of course people will argue til they're blue in the face about this and that, but none of that changes anything real. Using words such as gambler or speculator etc, really doesn't display the degree of complacency and apathy and assumption in people's minds. I prefer to use the word .... blind.
This thread's topic and many others offer people the choice to learn or to keep scooping the same ol' crap into their minds.
If you the trader, only have 2 "options" (apart from sit on the sidelines doing nothing) .... up or down, then you're playing "their" game. Regardless of the indicators or interpretations. This is why these sites are funny, they reek of poor underlying information and education. To take advantage of people here on these sites, would be akin to shooting fish in a barrel.
So semantics and arguing aside, predictable is only relevant in the space of normal and normal is only relevant in the space of safe and natural. So using the past to determine 'trend' or using contemporary assumptions to trade is just silly. (It's not whether your account balance goes up or not) It puts you right in the cross hairs of the game. A game I have been watching for 4 decades now. Of course, as a fish in a bowl, a person wouldn't see what's coming until it's already happening or happened. That is really the difference here. There's nothing intelligent about using past as predictable, unless you're playing a video game (where it's you vs the game in a self enclosed scenario) and you know all the moves and when to do them. People starting to understand now?
Trading, re: retail type trading and traders, is a great access point to test people and their ingenuities, their assumptions, their intelligences, their maturities. If all that people see is $$$$ .... then you're a fool who has no real life references (far beyond 'fundamental analysis'). You don't own that $$$, just as you don't own that trend etc.
A two degree strategy HAS TO trend or return just as it has to fail. The problem really is people listening to all the wrong people and things. Watching too many youtube videos and being saturated by "the kardashians" or caged fighting.
I would suggest everyone pick up a dictionary and look up trend. And then read ALL the meanings in all its different contextual references.... verb, noun etc. You'd be surprised to learn how others see many things.... as well as how they see you, the trader.
I find people don't even understand 'volatility' properly. They think it's "when the market makes a big strong move" or "it moves a lot" ...... WOW !!!!!
Playing for 'normal' is akin to hunting boar with a rifle and you're following it, and following it then momentarily you lose it and then suddenly it's standing at your feet ... you take the shot and blow your whole foot off. Why? No observations. No spacial awareness. No intelligence. Just pulling the trigger/pushing a button.
I love it when people tell me I'm "wrong" or talking bS, as if it's all just an opinion or some facts on their own.
Traders need to grow up.
Happy trading and learning
Peter
Of course people will argue til they're blue in the face about this and that, but none of that changes anything real. Using words such as gambler or speculator etc, really doesn't display the degree of complacency and apathy and assumption in people's minds. I prefer to use the word .... blind.
This thread's topic and many others offer people the choice to learn or to keep scooping the same ol' crap into their minds.
If you the trader, only have 2 "options" (apart from sit on the sidelines doing nothing) .... up or down, then you're playing "their" game. Regardless of the indicators or interpretations. This is why these sites are funny, they reek of poor underlying information and education. To take advantage of people here on these sites, would be akin to shooting fish in a barrel.
So semantics and arguing aside, predictable is only relevant in the space of normal and normal is only relevant in the space of safe and natural. So using the past to determine 'trend' or using contemporary assumptions to trade is just silly. (It's not whether your account balance goes up or not) It puts you right in the cross hairs of the game. A game I have been watching for 4 decades now. Of course, as a fish in a bowl, a person wouldn't see what's coming until it's already happening or happened. That is really the difference here. There's nothing intelligent about using past as predictable, unless you're playing a video game (where it's you vs the game in a self enclosed scenario) and you know all the moves and when to do them. People starting to understand now?
Trading, re: retail type trading and traders, is a great access point to test people and their ingenuities, their assumptions, their intelligences, their maturities. If all that people see is $$$$ .... then you're a fool who has no real life references (far beyond 'fundamental analysis'). You don't own that $$$, just as you don't own that trend etc.
A two degree strategy HAS TO trend or return just as it has to fail. The problem really is people listening to all the wrong people and things. Watching too many youtube videos and being saturated by "the kardashians" or caged fighting.
I would suggest everyone pick up a dictionary and look up trend. And then read ALL the meanings in all its different contextual references.... verb, noun etc. You'd be surprised to learn how others see many things.... as well as how they see you, the trader.
I find people don't even understand 'volatility' properly. They think it's "when the market makes a big strong move" or "it moves a lot" ...... WOW !!!!!
Playing for 'normal' is akin to hunting boar with a rifle and you're following it, and following it then momentarily you lose it and then suddenly it's standing at your feet ... you take the shot and blow your whole foot off. Why? No observations. No spacial awareness. No intelligence. Just pulling the trigger/pushing a button.
I love it when people tell me I'm "wrong" or talking bS, as if it's all just an opinion or some facts on their own.
Traders need to grow up.
Happy trading and learning
Peter
Trading's for those who learn independently. Everyone else is just blind.
- Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Been And Gone. | 1,702 Posts
Trading's for those who learn independently. Everyone else is just blind.
{quote} Peter Your'e rambling again, incoherent and seem to like talking about pigs, children and what you would do with a knife. STOP DRINKING
I love how he involved boar-hunting and such into it, feels a bit like a James bond movie
Please guys continue i spent my monthly allowance on popcorns
Memories is all that remains…