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USDCAD - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3691–1.3978. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3265.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9455 – 0.9600. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9140.

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NZDUSD - US inflation slows the decline

According to the January report, food prices in New Zealand rose again: thus, against January 2022, the cost of food increased by 11.0%, and vegetables and fruits rose most of all – by 16.0%. The price of meat, poultry, and fish grew by 9.2%, while restaurant meals and soft drinks increased by 8.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Compared to December last year, the indicator increased by 1.7%. The US dollar is trading at 103.300 in the USD Index, having hardly reacted to yesterday's disappointing CPI report: the index rose by 0.5% in January, exceeding the 0.1% growth rate of the previous month, which led to a slowdown in annual inflation to 6.4% from 6.5% before. The rate of decline has reduced to a minimum, and soon inflation may continue the positive dynamics observed in autumn.

The trading instrument has reversed and is actively declining, approaching the December low of 0.6240, and the technical indicators reinforce the sell signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6360, 0.6500 | Support levels: 0.6240, 0.6100.
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AUDCAD Leans above the Additional Support

The AUDCAD pair lost the positive momentum, which forces it to form some of the bearish correctional rebound, to face the extra support at 0.9225 and settles above it, the continuation of the stability above this support besides providing positive momentum by stochastic exit from the oversold level, which will increase the chances for gathering positive momentum, to begin activating the bullish track by targeting 0.9345 level initially, then breaching the barrier near 0.9420. while the price reach below the current support will force it to suffer extra losses by resuming the bearish correctional attempts, to expect reaching the critical support at 0.9130.
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AUDUSD consolidates below the resistance

The AUDUSD pair attempted to return to the main bullish channel but it consolidated below the resistance line formed at 0.7000 barrier, to start today with bearish bias and approach the key support 0.6925, waiting to break this level to confirm the continuation of the correctional bearish wave and head towards our negative targets that start at 0.6855 and extend to 0.6780. The EMA50 forms negative pressure against the price to support the expectations to decline, besides stochastic that provides negative signals on the four hours’ time frame. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions conditioned by the price stability below 0.7000. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6870 support and 0.7000 resistance
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Chart of the Day - GBPJPY

UK inflation data for January was released today at 7:00 am GMT. Release showed a bigger slowdown in price growth than expected, with headline CPI gauge moving down from 10.5 to 10.1% YoY (exp. 10.3% YoY). Core gauge dropped from 6.3 to 5.8% YoY (exp. 6.2% YoY). Unsurprisingly, lower inflation reading was taken as dovish with investors increasing bearish BoE bets. This, in turn, triggered a pull back on GBP market. Taking a look at GBPJPY chart at H4 interval, we can see that the pair has managed to climb above the resistance zone ranging below 38.2% retracement of the downward move launched in October 2022 recently but this breakout was short-lived. Pair pulled back below it this morning but has bounced off the daily lows and it looks like another attempt to break above 38.2% retracement may be on the cards. However, if bulls fail and bears regain control, a deeper correction may be on the cards. In such a scenario, 156.76 zones will be a key support to watch. However, 23.6% retracement in the 159.30 area may also provide some support given that it saw numerous price reactions over the past 2 months.
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USDCHF Technical Analysis

The USDCHF pair provided new positive trades to test the key resistance 0.9250, showing bearish bias now to press on the EMA50, waiting to surpass this barrier to confirm the continuation of the expected bearish trend on the intraday basis, which its next targets located at 0.9120 followed by 0.9060. Stochastic provides negative signals that we are waiting to support the continuation of the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that breaching 0.9250 will push the price to achieve additional gains and visit 0.9315 before detecting the next destination clearly.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair confirmed breaking 0.6290 level after closing the daily candlestick below it, which supports the expectations of achieving more bearish correction on the intraday and short term basis, opening the way to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels as next main targets. The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend, while stochastic begins to loses the positive momentum gradually. Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline in the upcoming sessions, noting that the continuation of the bearish wave requires holding below 0.6290 and 0.6320 levels.
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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil price bounced upwards clearly after the negative attempts that it witnessed yesterday, as it kept its stability above 78.00, to surpass 78.90 level and settles above it now, which leads the price to resume the bullish bias, affected by the inverted head and shoulders’ pattern, which has positive targets that start at 81.60 and extend to 84.25. Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, being aware that breaking 78.00 will cancel the mentioned positive formation and press on the price to turn to decline, to head towards visiting 75.65 areas mainly.
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Gold Technical Analysis

Gold price continued to decline to reach few pips away from the waited target at 1828.70, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci correction level for the rise measured from 1616.65 to 1959.77, which means that breaking it will push the price to visit the next correctional level at 1788.20. Therefore, we suggest witnessing more bearish bias in the upcoming sessions, and the price needs negative motive that assists to achieve the required break and rally towards the suggested target. Taking into consideration that breaching 1878.80 will stop the negative scenario and push the price to rise again.
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DAX 40 - the German stock market is preparing to continue its growth

The aircraft engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines Holding published its financial results yesterday, reporting quarterly revenue growth to 1.51 billion euros from 1.35 billion euros in the previous period, while earnings per share increased from 2.14 euros to 2.23 euros. HR consulting company Randstad Holding NV released another positive report, reporting revenue of 7.01 billion euros, which beat analysts' forecast of 6.96 billion euros, and earnings per share of 1.93 euros, the highest in the company's history. Investors were disappointed only by the statistics of the brewing company Heineken NV, which recorded a drop in revenue from 7.79 billion euros to 7.42 billion euros. On the daily chart, the price is trading in an uptrend, holding within the local ascending corridor with dynamic boundaries of 16300 – 15000, and the technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal.

Support levels: 15250, 14700 | Resistance levels: 15680, 16200

NATGAS

US natural gas prices have been trading sideways since the beginning of February. Bulls attempted to break above the upper limit of the trading range in the 2.60 area on Tuesday but failed and a pullback was triggered. Price found support in the 2.43 area and an over-4% rally has taken place in the past few hours. The EIA report on natural gas inventories is released to watch for NATGAS traders today. It is expected to show much smaller inventory draw (-97 bcf) than in the previous week (-217 bcf). Such low expectations can be reasoned with the fact that the United States enjoyed relatively high temperatures. Moreover, the report will not yet capture the impact of Freeport LNG terminal resuming operations. Nevertheless, some short-term volatility is to be expected around release time. Taking a look at NATGAS chart we can see that the price is currently trading near the midpoint of the trading range. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate in the next 8-14 days with temperatures in key heating regions dropping. This combined with resumption of exports at Freeport LNG terminal may provide some upward pressure on NATGAS prices going forward.
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EURJPY Technical Analysis

The EURJPY pair continued to provide new positive trades, to take advantage of the major indicators that provide the positive momentum, to notice moving away from the additional support 142.40 and achieve additional gains by touching 143.45. These factors confirm the continuation of the positivity for the upcoming trading, to keep our bullish overview that might target 144.05 level soon, while breaching it will extend trades towards the next barrier at 145.25 direct. The expected trading range for today is between 142.75 and 143.90.

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Tesla's 2023 Recal of Full Self-Driving Targets a 'Fundamental' Flaw

More than 360,000 vehicles will receive an over-the-air update after the US government said that Autopilot can be dangerous in some driving situations.
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Morning Wrap - GOLD

1. US indices finished yesterday's trading lower as higher-than-expected US PPI reading for January added to inflation concerns. S&P 500 dropped 1.38%, Dow Jones moved 1.26%, Nasdaq plunged 1.78% and Russell 2000 dropped 0.98%
2. Indices from Asia-Pacific followed into footsteps of US peers and traded lower today. Nikkei dropped 0.7%, S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.9% lower, Kospi declined 1% and Nifty 50 traded 0.3% down. Indices from China traded up to 1% lower
3. DAX futures point to a lower opening of the European cash session
4. US President Biden said that he expects to speak with Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, soon. However, relations between China and the United States are strained following the shooting down of a Chinese balloon. Moreover, Financial Times reports that senior Pentagon official will make a trip to Taiwan what is unlikely to brighten up relations between China and the US
5. Fed Mester said that recent data shows demand not softening as expected. She also said that Fed will have to go above 5% and keep rates there for a while
6. RBA Governor Lowe said that if "things go right" rate cuts could come as soon as 2024. However, Lowe also said that rate hike cycle in Australia is not over yet as inflation remains high and damaging
7. Shinichi Uchida, Bank of Japan official, said that BoJ decided to launch a pilot central bank digital currency (CBDC) this April. Program will be aimed at testing technical feasibility of such solutions
8. New Zealand Finance Minister Robertson say that there is evidence suggesting that inflation has peaked already
9. Saudi Energy Minister bin Salman said that the output deal struck in October will remain in place for the full 2023. He also said that he is skeptical about quick pick-up in Chinese demand following economic reopening
10. While decent gains can be spotted on most altcoins, major cryptocurrencies are lagging behind. Bitcoin drops 1.5%, Ethereum trades 0.5% higher, Litecoin declined 0.4% and Ripple trades 0.5% down
11. Energy commodities trade mixed - oil drops around 0.5% while US natural gas rallies 4%
12. Precious metals are pulling back as USD strengthens - gold drops 0.6% and silver trades 0.8% down
13. USD and CAD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and NZD lag the most

Strong USD, driven by hawkish Fed speakers, is putting a break on the recent gold market rally. GOLD has already pulled back around 7% off a recent high.

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GBPJPY Keeps the Positivity

The GBPJPY pair kept its positive stability above the additional support 159.90, to confirm surrendering to the domination of the suggested bullish bias by touching 161 level, reminding you that it is important to gather the additional positive momentum to manage to breach the moving average that forms an obstacle at 162.10, to ease the mission of reaching the additional positive stations near 163 followed by 164.45. The expected trading range for today is between 160.4 and 162.

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NZDUSD

1. Indices from Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher at the beginning of a new week. Nikkei and S&P/ASX 200 traded 0.1% higher, Kospi added 0.2% and Nifty 50 dropped 0.1%. Indices from China traded up to 2% higher.
2. DAX futures point to a higher opening of the European cash session today.
3. US index futures trade little change compared to Friday's cash closing prices.
4. US and Canadian traders are off for holidays today so liquidity conditions in the afternoon may be thinner.
5. US Secretary of State Blinken said that US has information suggesting that China is considering providing Russia with ammunition and lethal weapons for war in Ukraine.
6. Bloomberg reports that meeting between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi over the weekend was rocky and far from encouraging.
7. People's Bank of China left 1- and 5-year prime lending rates unchanged at 3.65 and 4.30%, respectively. Decision was in-line with expectations.
8. According to Reuters report, People's Bank of China has reportedly asked domestic bank to slow issuance of loans this month.
9. North Korea fired two ballistic missiles today. UN Security Council will convene at 8:00 pm GMT today to discuss the situation.
10. Cryptocurrencies are trading mixed today with major coins experiencing rather small moves. Bitcoin drops 0.2%, Ethereum trades 0.3% higher and Dogecoin adds 0.4%.
11. Energy commodities trade mixed - oil gains 0.8-0.9% while natural gas pulls back around 2%.
12. Precious metals benefit from USD weakening at the beginning of a new week - gold and silver gain around 0.1% each while platinum adds almost 0.5%.
13. AUD and JPY are the best performing major currencies while CHF, EUR and USD lag the most.

NZDUSD bounced off the 0.62 support zone last week but failed to launch a major recovery move. There is a lot of uncertainty around NZD as RBNZ is set to announce rate decision this week (Wednesday, 1:00 am GMT) and some see a chance for rate hike cycle pause amid recent floods and cyclone hit.

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EURUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level А ended, and the development of the upward wave B started, within which the entry first wave of the lower level 1 of (А) of B formed. Now, a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (А) of B, within which the wave a of 2 has formed, and the wave b of 2 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.0325 – 1.0163. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1040.
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GBPUSD - The price is in a correction and a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward first wave of the higher level (1) formed, within which the wave 5 of (1) ended. Now, a downward correction is developing as the second wave (2), within which the wave of the lower level A of (2) has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the wave B of (2), the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.1400 – 1.1155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2437.
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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting at 83.

The market remains stable against the background of incoming multidirectional, fundamental information. Thus, the export of Russian oil is actively redirected to new markets after the introduction of economic sanctions by the EU and members of the G7, and yesterday, India announced another record for energy purchases: total imports in January for the first time exceeded 5.0M barrels per day, and in second place in terms of supply is Russia, which sold a record 1.4M barrels per day, up 9.2% compared to December, while the share of oil from the Middle East in total oil imports India decreased to 48.0%, although at the beginning of last year, it exceeded 80.0%. Meanwhile, the US authorities are developing additional measures to block Russian oil exports. According to Bloomberg, the new bans are planned to be directed against the defense and energy sectors, focusing on compliance with current restrictions and preventing circumvention of price cap restrictions.

Thus, the supply of raw materials on the world market continues to grow, and the data on stocks from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), which recorded a growth of 16.283M barrels, clearly confirm that it does not allow the asset quotes to return to growth. On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving within the local ascending corridor, completing the next wave of decline and getting ready for a reversal, and the technical indicators are uncertain, pointing to a local correction.

Resistance levels: 85.6, 91 | Support levels: 80, 75.5

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