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The Swamp

  • #106,781
  • Feb 10, 2023 7:35am Feb 10, 2023 7:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I will say that was a success. I see 0693 one. But since 0681 held support. I wont take the 0693 short. Maybe 1.0713 or 17 area will pop up another. My 5 min has gone a little bullish
35 years doing this…. And I still havent ever been able to design a scalping system that I can take to production….

I tip my hat to the guys that can do it well
  • #106,782
  • Feb 10, 2023 7:36am Feb 10, 2023 7:36am
Canadian Jobs report absolutely on fire

15K expected… 150K reported

You heard it here first… these are the last beats on any jobs reports for awhile

just too much baked in to these giant beats
  • #106,783
  • Feb 10, 2023 7:58am Feb 10, 2023 7:58am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} 35 years doing this…. And I still havent ever been able to design a scalping system that I can take to production…. I tip my hat to the guys that can do it well
I was looking for a sign of life from bulls. 1.0668 was my dumb entry. 1.0681 could of been another. I got a little heartbeat on the 5min for bulls after 1.0681.. That's what i was looking for. Since 1.0681 is a 6h support. This has a chance to run. LC and the last few days have closed higher. No closes day below 1.07. Today being a Friday.. Closing today above 1.0723 leans bullish. Bearish below 1.07.
Using strictly R/R. A long starting below 1.07 near that 6h has potential. But i dont have anything greater than a little 5min bull atm. (and 6h support)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,784
  • Edited 10:00am Feb 10, 2023 8:10am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I was looking for a sign of life from bulls. 1.0668 was my dumb entry. 1.0681 could of been another. I got a little heartbeat on the 5min for bulls after 1.0681.. That's what i was looking for. Since 1.0681 is a 6h support. This has a chance to run. LC and the last few days have closed higher. No closes day below 1.07. Today being a Friday.. Closing today above 1.0723 leans bullish. Bearish below 1.07. Using strictly R/R. A long starting below 1.07 near that 6h has potential. But i dont have anything greater than a little 5min bull atm....
A 4h closed lower. Its below 1.07. All I have is that 6h support.. 5 min on the st bull side. 4h to 15 min bearish.. Pa back above 1.0731 may be bulls stretching legs. There is no stretch till it happens.. Yes i have a long. But its not safe. No trade is ever safe, especially early on.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,785
  • Feb 10, 2023 9:28am Feb 10, 2023 9:28am
Bullish Dollar
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-de...m-01-20230210/
  • #106,786
  • Feb 10, 2023 9:37am Feb 10, 2023 9:37am
For all to hold some basic know how!
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  • #106,787
  • Feb 10, 2023 10:30am Feb 10, 2023 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A 4h closed lower. Its below 1.07. All I have is that 6h support.. 5 min on the st bull side. 4h to 15 min bearish.. Pa back above 1.0731 may be bulls stretching legs. There is no stretch till it happens.. Yes i have a long. But its not safe. No trade is ever safe, especially early on.
Now the 5 min is bearish again.. 6h is all that's left. It closes in 1.5 hs. Bears may break it this time..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,788
  • Feb 10, 2023 10:42am Feb 10, 2023 10:42am
system generated 6h s/l 1.0654, 8h 1.0662, 12h 1.0628, 24h 1.0553. wk 1.0518
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,789
  • Feb 10, 2023 11:57am Feb 10, 2023 11:57am
Quoting gatorinla
I want pa to get near 1.0668, but see 1.0680/81 as possible S too. With things bearish below 1.07.. I will wait for a wick closer to the low. S/l just below it. I just take small trades. This is just a support area. Not a b/o confirmed long. A 4h target exhaustion area near support. If it runs up w/o me, that's ok.. I know/think what the day close needs. The smaller time 4h and below are all bearish. All I have left is the 6h, starting around 1.0681. The bears still have not closed a day below 1.07..
Approaching tp #2. It appears the 4h short yesterday off the -1.0760 close was correct. The only reason it may not make it is that 6h support. Flat shorts, 2 small longs.

the 5m/4h is still bearish. It may break support. 6h/month bullish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,790
  • Edited 12:15pm Feb 10, 2023 12:05pm | Edited 12:15pm
I dont have a 5min normal set-up. Using the 6h as a base. A 5min close above 1.0677 (long green candle).. may target closer to 1.07

ditto with these.
15 min 1.0694
30 min 1.0709
60 min 1.0723
4h 1.0769
6h 1.0794
8h 1.0813
12h 1.0827
day 1.0799
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,791
  • Feb 10, 2023 12:19pm Feb 10, 2023 12:19pm
bullish 1m tp1 1.0677 tp2 at 1.0683

Quoting gatorinla
I dont have a 5min normal set-up. Using the 6h as a base. A 5min close above 1.0677 (long green candle).. may target closer to 1.07 ditto with these. 15 min 1.0694 30 min 1.0709 60 min 1.0723 4h 1.0769 6h 1.0794 8h 1.0813 12h 1.0827 day 1.0799
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,792
  • Feb 10, 2023 12:32pm Feb 10, 2023 12:32pm
finishing a 2 day fast in 30 min. I thought about going for 3 days. Superbowl weekend is too close.

Unless something changes with a close today above 1.07.. Its looking bearish next week. the 1m failing to reach tp1 with some pep. Does not look bullish.

If any green candles show up closing above those levels. That may change things. That 1min is a telling sign,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,793
  • Feb 10, 2023 2:30pm Feb 10, 2023 2:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
bullish 1m tp1 1.0677 tp2 at 1.0683 {quote}{image}
1min has reached tp1. Nothing to be excited about. I put the current 5 min on the chart. In case she is sneaking to close the week above 1.07.

On this 5 min if it makes tp2 1.0688. it will be close to the 15m. Setting up.. The 15min is more important. Because the 15 min sets up a tp above 1.07.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,794
  • Feb 10, 2023 2:38pm Feb 10, 2023 2:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1min has reached tp1. Nothing to be excited about. I put the current 5 min on the chart. In case she is sneaking to close the week above 1.07. On this 5 min if it makes tp2 1.0688. it will be close to the 15m. Setting up.. The 15min is more important. Because the 15 min sets up a tp above 1.07. {image}
Clarifying this some. A large 15 min green (significant looking compared to the ones around it) candle. Closing above 1.0786 may set up a breakout. I posted 30 min +.. if the candle is above those its stronger. Being above 1.07 or 1.0724 is strong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,795
  • Feb 10, 2023 2:45pm Feb 10, 2023 2:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Clarifying this some. A large 15 min green (significant looking compared to the ones around it) candle. Closing above 1.0786 may set up a breakout. I posted 30 min +.. if the candle is above those its stronger. Being above 1.07 or 1.0724 is strong.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,796
  • Feb 10, 2023 2:52pm Feb 10, 2023 2:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,797
  • Feb 10, 2023 3:21pm Feb 10, 2023 3:21pm
The second week in a row, no COT.

"February 10, 2023: The impact of the cyber-related incident at ION is being mitigated. However, multiple reporting firms continue to experience technical issues that prevent submission of timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report will continue to be delayed until the receipt and validation of all reportable data is completed."
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,798
  • Feb 10, 2023 3:33pm Feb 10, 2023 3:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image}
seems like we will be closing the week under those numbers.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,799
  • Edited 4:52pm Feb 10, 2023 4:22pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} seems like we will be closing the week under those numbers.
yep, unless it gaps above 1.07.. Selling the bounces looks like the way to go next week. 1.0485/slip has a algo target. Also some week support at 1.0518..
Other week support 1.0596 *1.0497 1.0395 dynamic. Weekly average range (WAR) about 223 pips. PA can be at 1.0485/slip next week. I will talk like its going there unless it gaps above 1.07.. Lets say it does make it to 1.0485/slip, then closes the week above 1.0518. That may allow a bounce to retest 1.07 from below. 1.07 may be R then.


a day support that could slow or stop the descend at 1.0561. Some of these will probably rise some with time. If 1.0561 stops it. Sometime pa measures before advancing. 1.0561+.0223=1.0784. Pa came close to 1.0784 at this weeks high.

If the opportunity arises again, sell 1.0792/slip.. Next week. That's a perfect spot to screw those already short, a perfect spot to get more longs. The market is a whore. It likes phucking everyone.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,800
  • Feb 11, 2023 4:02pm Feb 11, 2023 4:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I will say that was a success. I see 0693 one. But since 0681 held support. I wont take the 0693 short. Maybe 1.0713 or 17 area will pop up another. My 5 min has gone a little bullish
Yeah man you filipped at the right time.

I really was dead wrong all week, after covering a huge winner at 1.1021. 350 solid pts of buying the dip havent worked out well, and I’ve given back about as much Alpha as Im willing to lose

1.0648-1.0629 holds and Im brilliant(actually lucky is a better term). Beyond that is the dreaded place traders never want to be, in the middle where you shouldn’t do anything….

1.0275 never was retested after a strong move off the lows. In fact that was my original profit target when I initially shorted at 1.0735 a month ago. It also happens to be the mid from the low to high of the rally off of .95XX…. And we all know how much Fibre loves 50% retraces…

I might have to sit out the move down or up and just take my punishment for not being more patient. Hard as that is, its usually the right choice
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