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XRPUSD - Technical analysis

The XRPUSD pair has been actively growing since the beginning of this year as part of the general market trend. However, at present, the upward dynamics have seriously slowed. The price reached three-month highs around 0.4290, after which it rolled back to 0.3906 (Murrey level [8/8]). Fixation below it will give the prospect of further decline to 0.3662 (Murrey level [7/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey level [6/8]). If the quotes consolidate above the resistance zone of 0.4050 – 0.4150 (middle line of Bollinger bands, Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey level [+1/8]), growth may continue to 0.4395 (Murrey level [+2/8]), 0.4565 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%) and 0.4750. Technical indicators point to the continuation of the uptrend. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is reversing upwards from the oversold zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.415, 0.4395, 0.4565, 0.475 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418
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Chart of the Day - USDDIX
The dollar index fell below 103 on Wednesday, extending yesterday's losses sparked by Powell’s latest comments. Head of the Fed said that more rate hikes will likely be needed and that the terminal rate could peak higher if the jobs market remains strong, however underlined that disinflation has begun. Traders now look ahead to more Fed commentary on Wednesday for further guidance. From a technical point of view, USDIDX bounced off key resistance at 103.40, which is marked with upper limit of the local 1:1 structure, previous price reactions,50 SMA (green line) and upper limit of the descending channel. As long as price sits below the aforementioned level, the main sentiment remains bearish. Nearest major support to watch is located around recent lows at 100.60. On the other hand, if buyers manage to regain control, upward correction may be launched towards resistance at 105.30, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move launched in January 2021.

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GBPJPY Repeats the Negative Closings

The GBPJPY pair confirmed keeping the domination of the bearish bias by providing new negative close below the additional barrier 159.90, to notice forming bearish waves and achieve some negative targets by reaching 157.45. We expect to gather the additional negative momentum to resume the bearish attack and succeed to crawl below 157.30 obstacle to target 156.65 followed by 155.70 levels direct. The expected trading range for today is between 159.00 and 157.3.
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EURUSD Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair declined clearly yesterday to approach our waited target at 1.0635, but it bounced bullishly to test 1.0745 again, and it keeps its stability below it until now, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, noting that surpassing the mentioned target will push the price to 1.0515 as a next negative station. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0745 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0640 support and 1.0800 resistance.
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NZDUSD Within Sideways Track
The NZDUSD pair still stuck between the next trend keys represented by 0.6290 support and 0.6360 resistance, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now, waiting to breach one of these levels to detect the next destination clearly. We remind you that breaking the support will press on the price to achieve negative targets that start at 0.6210 followed by 0.6140, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend and head towards 0.6465 followed by 0.6530 levels as main positive stations. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6270 support and 0.6400 resistance.
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Breaking - EUR Weakens Slightly After German Inflation Data

Annual inflation rate in Germany rose to 8.7% YoY in January, from 8.6% YoY in previous month, below market estimates of 8.9% preliminary estimates showed. The statistical office changed the CPI base year to 2020 from 2015 and a technical programme made it necessary to postpone the release of the preliminary CPI.
On a monthly basis, the inflation rose to 1.0%, in January from -0.8% in the previous month and above market estimates of 0.8% increase. In December when a federal one-off payment to cover the monthly installment for gas and heat for all households and small- to medium-sized businesses came into effect, pressuring the inflation down. The EU-harmonized index fell to 9.2% from 9.6%, below forecasts of 10%. EURUSD bounced off the1.0740 resistance after release of today’s German inflation data.

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USDJPY Tests the Resistance
The USDJPY pair tested 131.65 level by today’s open, keeping its stability below it, accompanied by stochastic reach to the overbought areas, which supports the chances of resuming the negative trades to head towards achieving negative targets that start at 130.40 and extend to 128.90. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, reminding you that it is important to hold below 131.65 to continue the expected decline. The expected trading range for today is between 130.4 support and 132 resistance.

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USDCAD Attempts to Recover

The USDCAD pair approached 1.3350 level and bounced upwards clearly to test the first key resistance 1.3450, consolidating below this level until now, noticing that stochastic shows clear negative signals now, waiting to push the price to resume the bearish trend that its targets begin at 1.3350 and extend to 1.3280 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 1.3450 and 1.3500 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3350 support and 1.3490 resistance.
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CADCHF Technical Analysis

The CADCHF pair succeeded to gather the additional negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested negativity and notice its crawl towards 0.6840 recently, also, the stability of the additional barrier 0.6920 forms major factor to confirm the domination of the bearish bias, which allows us to suggest suffering additional losses by crawling towards 0.6790 level soon, followed by reaching the additional support 0.6745 that forms the next main target for the upcoming trades. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6880 and 0.6790.

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Chart of the Day - USDCHF

Swiss franc strengthened on Monday after the annual inflation rate in Switzerland jumped to 3.3% YoY in January, the highest reading since September 2022, from 2.8% in the prior month and above analysts' estimates of 2.9%, which should support the case for further SNB policy tightening. Pair may experience increased volatility ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data that could reinforce the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. From technical point of view, the pair broke below the local support at 0.9235, which is marked with previous price reactions, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward wave and 200 SMA (red line). As long as price sits below, downward move may deepen towards next major support at 0.9200, which coincides with the lower limit of the triangle formation, 50 SMA (green line) and 38.2% retracement.

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GBPUSD Resumes the Decline

The GBPUSD pair bounced bearishly after testing the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, to resume the expected bearish track on the intraday basis, which its next target located at 1.1940. The EMA50 supports the expected bearish trend, noting that the current decline is considered as bearish correction for the rise measured from 1.0297 to 1.2443, and breaking the targeted level will open the way to achieve additional declines that reach 1.1625 areas. The EMA50 forms negative pressure that supports the continuation of the bearish trend domination in the upcoming sessions, and the price needs to get negative motive that assists to rally towards achieving the waited targets. Therefore, we expect to witness more decline on the intraday and short term basis, noting that breaching 1.2140 will stop the bearish trend and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1940 support and 1.2110 resistance.
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EURUSD Approaches the Target

The EURUSD pair resumed its negative trading to move away from 1.0745 level, as it falls under continuous negative pressure coming by the EMA50, to approach our waited target at 1.0635, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing the mentioned level will push the price to achieve more decline and head towards 1.0515 as a next main target, while the price might witness some temporary sideways fluctuation affected by stochastic positivity until getting negative motive that assists to resume the negative trades to achieve the mentioned target. On the other hand, we notice that the price completes forming negative pattern that adds more confirmation to the continuation of the expected bearish wave, which has negative targets that surpass 1.0515 to reach 1.0400 areas. Therefore, we will continue suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1.0745 will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to start new recovery attempts on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0575 support and 1.0745 resistance.
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Gold Price Awaits more Decline

Gold price settles below the broken support of the bearish flag pattern, to keep the negative effect of this pattern active, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards our main expected target at 1828.70. On the other hand, the price form new negative pattern that we expect to cause additional declines that surpass the mentioned level to head towards 1788.20 areas on the near term basis. Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, taking into consideration that breaching 1878.8 will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to attempt to regain the main bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.
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Crude Oil Completes Positive Pattern

Crude oil price approached the positive target mentioned in our last report at 80.40, showing some bearish bias by today’s open to test the support base formed at 78.90 after breaching it previously, and consolidating above this level is considered as the first condition to continue the bullish wave on the intraday basis. By taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price completed forming inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that surpasses 80.40 to reach 81.60 followed by 84.25 areas, to continue suggesting the bullish trend for the upcoming period. The EMA50 provides the positive support to the price, to reinforce the continuation of the expected bullish trend, while stochastic might cause some sideways fluctuation and temporary negative trades before resuming the expected rise. Therefore, we expect to witness more rise in the upcoming sessions, noting that breaking 78.90 followed by 78.30 levels will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 77.50 support and 81.30 resistance.
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair trades positively to test the key resistance 0.6340, reminding you that consolidating below this level is required to continue the expected negative scenario, which its targets begin by breaking 0.6290 to confirm opening the way to head towards 0.6210 followed by 0.6140 levels. On the other hand, breaching 0.6340 will push the price to build new bullish wave that its targets begin by testing 0.6390 areas and extend to 0.6490. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6240 support and 0.6350 resistance.
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EURUSD Attempts to Rebound

Fed's Bowman pointed out today that the US central bank still has a lot of work to do in order to achieve financial stability. Bowman emphasizes that further tightening of monetary policy is needed in order to achieve the desired level of inflation. Bowman also points out that interest rates need to reach restrictive levels and will stay there for a long time. Volatility is rather limited today as the market awaits tomorrow’s US CPI report. EURUSD rebounds despite the fact that yields are rather muted, which is attributed to good market sentiment.
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EURGBP is Forced to Decline

The EURGBP price suffered strong negative pressures, which forces it to delay the bullish attack by reaching the extra support at 0.8875 to notice forming some of the negative waves by reaching 0.8825. in spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels but the continuation of providing negative closes below the broken support confirms its surrender to the bearish correctional bias domination, to expect reaching 0.8805 and surpassing this obstacle might extend the losses towards 0.8730, to face the moving average 55.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8865 and 0.8805.
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Chart of the Day - GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair erased most of the early gains as investors digested latest figures from the UK labour market. The UK Office for National Statistics Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in December as widely expected, while the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 12.9K in January. Moreover, December reading was also revised down sharply to -3.2K as compared to the 19.7k rise estimated originally. The number of people in work grew by 74k in Q4 of 2022, easily topping analysts’ projections of a 40k increase. The number of part-time employees jumped to the highest level since the September-November period of 2021, however the number of full-time employees decreased but still above pre-pandemic levels. On self-employment, part-time self-employed increased, while full-time self-employed remained low. On the other hand, in November 2022 to January 2023, job vacancies fell by 76K to 1,134K, the seventh consecutive quarterly fall, reflecting uncertainty across industries, as survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment.

Meanwhile US dollar trades slightly lower, extending yesterday's decline, however further downside move may be capped as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which will be released at 1:30 pm BST.

From a technical point of view, GBPUSD rose sharply in the morning after the release of UK data, however the pair pulled back after buyers failed to break above the 100 EMA (purple line). If sellers manage to regain full control, then declines may deepen towards local support at 1.2075. On the other hand, if bulls manage to regain control, next key resistance to watch can be found around 1.2215.
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