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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,441
  • Feb 3, 2023 12:40pm Feb 3, 2023 12:40pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Or not... Lol Nice brother, enjoy mexico. I love going down there. Where are you headed?
...yeah makes sense there should be some profit taking today. I only left on about 20%, committed to seeing them run to the close and will have the calls on for Monday....

Going to the Yucatan, do some reef snorkeling, cenote diving, maybe get lucky with some yoga pants in Tulum, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,442
  • Feb 3, 2023 1:01pm Feb 3, 2023 1:01pm
bot back the Feb3 short 4,200 calls in the SPX calendars for 20c, now riding Feb6 4,200 long calls to glory. A 4,200 pin today will be worth $20! Omg that'll buy Fancy Feast for a decade!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,443
  • Feb 3, 2023 3:03pm Feb 3, 2023 3:03pm
So I ride the doji into Monday. Will be setting up trades around the 2/14 CPI next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,444
  • Feb 3, 2023 3:14pm Feb 3, 2023 3:14pm
btfd on AMZN? any bull rally I'd bet sees Amazon bought back.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,445
  • Feb 3, 2023 4:16pm Feb 3, 2023 4:16pm
This guy ....John Mowrey, NFJ - I like his talk. I need to look to fine tune my approach to trading the bull. I sense a feeding frenzy coming in 2023....task is to find the best meat...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,446
  • Feb 4, 2023 4:27pm Feb 4, 2023 4:27pm
Quoting The Fool
btfd on AMZN? any bull rally I'd bet sees Amazon bought back.....
...Gotta work both ends, as usual. Indices look like they will get a little more on the Friday pullback. Maybe we chop until 2/14 CPI. Although, I expect some Fed jawboning starting up again. Not sure if it matters much anymore.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,447
  • Feb 4, 2023 10:02pm Feb 4, 2023 10:02pm
China re-opening to boost FXI? Maybe get a pullback off the balloon drama? Anyway, FXI has room to run. A couple simple spreads with good potential to pay off well if China continues to blast up. Risking $1800, 200-lot spreads could net >$165k on a run past $45 10 weeks from now. Outsized run to $50 by Apr 21 would pay $290k. FXI has good liquidity, we'll see where these can fill.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,448
  • Feb 4, 2023 10:11pm Feb 4, 2023 10:11pm
You gotta take what comes. I'm ready for the Goldilocks market....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,449
  • Feb 4, 2023 10:50pm Feb 4, 2023 10:50pm
Ford....idk....but it was trading >$25 a little over a year ago. The 10c calendar shown, 100-lot risks $1000, if you take it to the $22 strike safely, you're left with the long calls for 4 months. Basically, you get control of 10,000 shares of the stock for 4 months for $0.10/share.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,450
  • Edited 11:34pm Feb 4, 2023 10:55pm | Edited 11:34pm
this is exactly what my life as an options trader is like
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,451
  • Feb 5, 2023 12:14am Feb 5, 2023 12:14am
Quoting The Fool
This guy ....John Mowrey, NFJ - I like his talk. I need to look to fine tune my approach to trading the bull. I sense a feeding frenzy coming in 2023....task is to find the best meat... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq49pu910Cg&t=12
Wait for one sticky CPI report. I'm sure many hedge funds slaughter houses willing to trade finest meat.
  • #18,452
  • Feb 5, 2023 12:37am Feb 5, 2023 12:37am
Quoting Traderview
{quote} Wait for one sticky CPI report. I'm sure many hedge funds slaughter houses willing to trade finest meat.
Most of my risk $ will be going on a binary setup for the 2/14 CPI. After the giddy bull runs of the last few months, some data showing increasing inflation (along with lots of jawboning from the Fed squad) may be enough to sink stocks again. I could see SPX falling fast to 3,800 in the week or so past a CPI shocker on Valentine's Day. I'll wait & see for a couple days in the coming week b4 getting into positions....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,453
  • Feb 5, 2023 12:50am Feb 5, 2023 12:50am
otoh, you know, it's very hard to stop a determined bull market. Look at the S&P from Apr '20 to Dec '21: 2,192 to 4,819, yes it more than doubled in just 20 months. Speaking of hedgies, do you think they enjoyed 2022? A trainwreck. No bonuses. Layoffs. Nobody would like to see a bull market roar back more than them. I always shoot at both ends of the alligator, but I am sure we could see a run to a new ath in the indices by the end of the year.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,454
  • Feb 7, 2023 3:00pm Feb 7, 2023 3:00pm
I expected more action off a JPOW talk day. I sold SPX vert calls Feb10 4270/4300, for $1.10 in the last minutes. I have those hedged with SPY Feb10 $420/426 bull vert calls, entered Monday for 40c debit. Plan to take profit from both, we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,455
  • Feb 7, 2023 4:23pm Feb 7, 2023 4:23pm
hey, i had a question: how many cents do you guys target in a trade? obviously some stocks like tsla or nvda move several dollars per day but with slower stocks like aapl or msft or amzn or the like I was wondering what a respectable number of cents to target in a given trade would be
  • #18,456
  • Feb 7, 2023 4:40pm Feb 7, 2023 4:40pm
Quoting SlashMostly
hey, i had a question: how many cents do you guys target in a trade?
as many as possible, lol. There's a variety of answers...

If I am selling SPX spreads, I look for a minimum of $1.00 per $10.00 of width, preferably much better than that. But, like in the spread I mentioned above, I will take less if the duration is low (and theta is high). SPX short call spread above is just 3 dte....

Otherwise, I usually won't bother with a trade if I don't think I can net out $1 or better. A lot of the spreads in SPX I do are in the $1.00-$2.00 debit range.

Another way of looking at it is: I usually only enter trades that have a high roi potential - usually at least 4-5x. I use the Euro-style options (SPX and RUT) credit spreads to fund those.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,457
  • Feb 7, 2023 4:42pm Feb 7, 2023 4:42pm
Quoting The Fool
I expected more action off a JPOW talk day. ...
...I think I meant I expected JP to jawbone down the bull market, or at least try to.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,458
  • Edited 5:55pm Feb 7, 2023 4:50pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting SlashMostly
hey, i had a question: how many cents do you guys target in a trade?
If you learn anything about trading options, one important thing to discover is the leverage that's inherent in them. One options contract "controls" 100 shares of stock. Right now, I can buy at-the-money (atm) AAPL calls for $3, for contracts expiring in 10 days on Feb 17. So, I get to play with 100 shares of AAPL for $300. Doing the same with 100 actual shares would cost me $15k+.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,459
  • Feb 7, 2023 4:57pm Feb 7, 2023 4:57pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}If you learn anything about trading options, one important thing to discover is the leverage that's inherent in them. One options contract "controls" 100 shares of stock. Right now, I can buy at-the-money (atm) AAPL calls for $3, for contracts expiring in 10 days on Feb 17. So, I get to play with 100 shares of AAPL for $300. Doing the same with 100 shares would cost me $15k+.
owning one $155 long AAPL call pays the same as owning 100 long shares. Until the options expire....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,460
  • Feb 7, 2023 8:52pm Feb 7, 2023 8:52pm
TLT 1-month calendars are getting very cheap. If inflation keeps coming down, the bond market will front run the Fed, and long bonds will get bid. If you buy the calendars a month from the front call, you'll get 2 months in TLT for pennies. TLT doesn't move much, but when it does start to move, it'll trend well....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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