Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Good afternoon Benny,
Let me start off by saying a big Thank you to the time and energy you invested this past week. My mom always told me the people around us reflect whom we become. I hope this is true, and with that I hope to learn more of all good and positive lessons that I can retain from you. This past week was an amazing start, with the hope that the new week being better. I would like to learn more on how to read the news better when the economic news come out on our calendar. As you can see that I tried the nightly trade dow30 and when I did not know what to do, I trimmed the fat on the silver market since it was low. It worked out for me, maybe luck for now I'll keep on going at it on my demo account its become my new form of entertainment.
thank you for this wonderful experience.

Here is a logo I made thinking of you, The slogan is catchy. I guess its everything I learned depicted in one image.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...m_campaign=RSS

Fox News – “ominous Great Depression warning”

Blog/Economics

Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...on_warning.png

Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told. Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes. Therefore, they conclude that our standard of living has been rapidly declining. The number reveals that more than one-third of all U.S. young adults are being supported in part by their parents. Thanks to COVID, this disrupted society far greater than anyone is reporting. In addition to the shortages because of the lock-downs, by the end of 2020, more than half of young adults in America were living with one or both parents. That statistic actually exceeded the record high of the Great Depression.

Here is the worst part of this analysis. Many are jumping on the bandwagon claiming that the decline in real disposable income has been the largest since 1932 and therefore, this is a warning sign of a Great Depression is coming. They seem to be focused on the fact that the GDP report showed a significant decline in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. Now let’s look closer!
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https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Work-Force.jpg

First of all, the entire reason why unemployment rise to 25% during the latter part of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Why? At that time, about 40% of the civil workforce was still agrarian. The Dust Bowl meant job loss. If you could not even plant crops, there was no need for people to pick crops.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Labor-2019.jpg

Service during the Great Depression accounted for 17% of the workforce compared to 44%+ today. Government, federal, state, and local, was 22% of the civil workforce during the Great Depression compared to 33% by 1980. Things have continued to evolve and by 2019, services represent 79.41%. Agriculture is now a tiny fraction of what it once was – 1.41%.

In the USA, at the state level, their share of the civil workforce varies greatly. Florida is at about 11.3% compared to New Mexico which is 22.5% – a government employee’s paradise. The lowest is Michigan at 10.1%.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...e-Then-Now.png

During the Great Depression, the entire reason for the collapse in disposable income was the collapse in agriculture which created a collapse in income due to massive unemployment. That is totally different from the crisis we have today.
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Here we have rising prices due to shortages and then central banks raising interest rates in a fool’s quest to stop inflation when it is not based on speculation. Moreover, the biggest borrower is the government, and rising interest rates will only increase their exposure to keep rolling over the debt. Therefore, governments have been borrowing year after year. What happens when the public no longer buys their debt?

Real disposable income has been collapsing for completely different reasons since 1932. Here we have the costs of everything rising and then these people want war with Russia and China. Every war since the start of recorded history has resulted in inflation. Add to this, the total insanity of trying to end climate change by outlawing fossil fuels at a time when the climate is prone to getting colder.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w.../01/Carots.jpg

We are already witnessing riots around the world BECAUSE of inflation. During the Great Depression, people were suffering from DEFLATION. So comparing just that statistic of a decline in personal income and projecting we now face a Great Depression, does not even qualify to be classified as analysis. That is no different from someone warning that carrots must be lethal because everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has obviously died.



Categories: Economics
« The Coming Great Global Default

Markets Are Pricing a Fairy-Tale Fed Ending. The Dream Can’t Come True.

As Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to outline his thinking when releasing the first interest-rate decision of 2023, markets are counting on last year’s aggressive hiking campaign to pause soon and go into reverse later this year.

That’s a big reason why the Nasdaq is up more than 10% since Jan. 1. Over the past three months, the S&P 500 is up more than 8%.

Investors aren’t pricing the Fed to perfection. They’re pricing in a fairy tale.

If the Fed behaves as the market expects and starts to cut rates by the end of the year, it will be because the economy is so weak that it needs a lot of support. In that situation, companies will be having a hard time making money, which can’t be good for stocks.

Alternatively, if the Fed guides the economy to a soft landing, it won’t be cutting rates by the end of the year. That would imply that unemployment stays low, which worries the Fed because it gives workers more power to bid up their wages.

If the economy remains resilient, the Fed will keep rates higher to ensure inflation stays low in the longer term—even if inflation continues to slow sharply in the short term. And higher interest rates also aren’t good for stocks. If nothing else, they damp risk appetite by making interest-bearing investments more attractive.

And there’s the rub. Stocks are currently priced correctly only if there’s both a soft landing and rate cuts by the end of the year. They won’t both happen.

So if Powell sounds hawkish on Wednesday, take him at his word. If he’s not, prepare for recession. Either way, maybe it’s time to consider selling the stock rally.

—Brian Swint

Good day Benny,
I don't know how to start but I got lucky again today thanks to your teaching's . I open an account for a friend today, and traded it for him. I was telling him about my luck and wanted him to follow your amazing lessons. Here are the results from both accounts.
Thank you

It's funny to think about how all our abusive, oppressive systems are only there because the people who benefit from them are able to keep everyone else too divided and distracted to notice that we vastly outnumber them and could literally just force change to happen anytime we want.

❖

People have a fairly easy time accepting that things are fucked because we are ruled by corrupt assholes. They have a much harder time accepting that we are ruled by corrupt assholes because our corrupt asshole systems will always necessarily elevate corrupt assholes to the top.

It's easier to blame our problems on oligarchs or the Deep State or a cabal of satanic pedophiles than it is to blame them on systems that we ourselves participate in and have lived our entire lives intertwined with and which have been continuously normalized within our culture. If the problem is just a few corrupt assholes then it's not a very daunting problem, because all you have to do is remove those corrupt assholes and everything's golden. If the problem is the systems around which our entire civilization is structured, it's far more daunting.

It's easy to imagine a future without corrupt assholes. It's almost impossible to imagine a future where human behavior is not driven by profit for its own sake, where we have moved from competition-based systems to collaboration-based ones where we all work together for the common good.

In competition-based systems the most powerful governments will always be those who are willing to do whatever it takes to stay on top, the most powerful people will be those who are willing to do whatever it takes to get power, and everyone else gets crushed in the mad scramble. The fact is we'll always be ruled by corrupt assholes as long as we have competition-based systems, because the best competitors will always be the most ruthless individuals who will do anything to get to the top. Get rid the current assholes and new assholes will necessarily arise to take their place.

It's easy to say "Those assholes at the top need to go." It's much harder to say "Everything I'm familiar with needs to go." It's a giant leap into the dark of the unknown. But that's the only way we'll ever move toward health, and it's the only way our species will avoid being driven to its doom.

❖

Why does China keep aggressively surrounding itself with US military forces? pic.twitter.com/Oq4DQoUrWS
— Caitlin Johnstone (@caitoz) January 31, 2023

❖

Art snobs used to call you unsophisticated if you didn't like and appreciate Abstract Expressionism, then decades later it came out that the CIA had artificially popularized Abstract Expressionism as part of its culture war against the Soviet Union. There's probably a lesson in there somewhere.

❖

People are making a major confession when they accuse you of having loyalty to Russia or China for criticizing US foreign policy. They're admitting that for them it's not about truth or facts, but about which government you're loyal to. That's why criticism looks like treason to them.

"You're repeating Russian talking points" really only ever means "You're criticizing US foreign policy," and they only object to criticism of US foreign policy because on some level they believe it's every westerner's duty to advance the information interests of the US empire. Saying words based not on whether they're true but on what government's interests they serve is just being a propagandist. Someone who accuses you of being a propagandist because you criticized US foreign policy is actually admitting that they view themselves as a propagandist.

Blind conditioned loyalism is the only thing that can cause someone to meet criticism of the US empire not with the question "Are these words true?" but with a reflexive "Are these words sufficiently loyal to my government and its allies?" That's what's behind those accusations.

This exceedingly common tendency shows us that we live in a civilization guided primarily not by the search for truth but by blind loyalty to rulers, much the same as it was in feudal times. It shows us that western civilization is not at all what it pretends to be.

A future humanity that is actually guided by truth and facts will simply weigh claims and criticisms about important matters based on how demonstrably true they are in the light of currently available information, not on whose propaganda interests they serve.

❖

Jimmy Dore just had a great antiwar rant on Tucker Carlson where he got the message "China's not our enemy" across to the audience most sorely in need of hearing it, and people are on social media trying to act like that's a bad thing. If a peace advocate goes on Tucker Carlson to promote an important antiwar message because other major outlets like MSNBC and CNN refuse to platform any antiwar voices, the very last person you should be angry at in that equation is the peace advocate.

Big Thanks to @TuckerCarlson for letting someone say this on TV. I would love to bring this message to @MSNBC @CNN @NPR @abcnews etc..but they won’t have me. We’re going to have to come together to stop the war machine: pic.twitter.com/KePBod5ASJ
— Jimmy Dore (@jimmy_dore) February 1, 2023

If you actually opposed the US empire and its warmongering and nuclear brinkmanship, it would enrage you that liberal outlets refuse to platform people who criticize those things. That would be the focus of your outrage. It would never even occur to you to shriek at Jimmy Dore. If you're angry at Dore for going on Carlson's show instead of at the liberal outlets who refuse to platform antiwar voices, then your real objection isn't to Tucker Carlson, it's to antiwar voices getting a platform.

❖

Nobody actually believes western proxy warfare in Ukraine is about saving Ukrainian lives. You don't save lives by ramping up escalations, you save lives by negotiating peace, which would require concessions from the US empire. Empire simps just don't want those concessions to be made.

The US could easily end this war by respecting Moscow's security concerns and rolling back its war machinery and proxy ops from the region. The US won't do this because it wants to use this proxy war to bleed Russia and facilitate regime change in Moscow. That's all this is.

❖

Once you get a penetrating insight into how much of our civilization is comprised of narratives people made up, it changes your view of everything. Politics. Government. The media. Money. The economy. Religion. Culture. Even your very self. Our entire species moves in accordance with made-up stories.

You might think a clear recognition that our entire society is made of bullshit would be a negative experience, and at first it can be, but what's ultimately understood is something very positive: that if our entire civilization is made up, then we can simply make up something else. Something better. Something that works for all of us.

And then you notice something even cooler: that humanity is already unpacking this insight on a collective level. Longstanding beliefs about power structures and religion are being abandoned en masse. People are making up their own rules about money, gender, relationships, spirituality, etc. That's what you're seeing in these new ideas about cryptocurrencies, in the younger generations' ideas about gender and sexuality, in rewriting the rules of what relationships, marriages and families are supposed to look like. People are beginning to replace the old narratives with narratives of their own making.

There's a growing recognition throughout our species that the stories which have been guiding our collective behavior are made up — usually by the powerful, for the powerful — and they can simply make up something else. And sure it often looks awkward and messy right now, but it would have to look awkward and messy at first. These are baby steps.

More and more, humanity is collectively looking at the narratives out of which our society is woven and asking, "Why are we acting like this is true when it's just a made-up story? Would our interests be better served by telling another story? Or dispensing with story altogether?" Which is fascinating, because if you look very deeply within yourself you will come to see that most of your suffering as an individual is the result of the mental narratives you believe, which you can then disentangle yourself from. Humanity is moving toward this same kind of insight on a collective level.

A healthy human is one who has shifted into a functional relationship with mental narrative where thoughts are experienced as tools to be picked up when they are useful and set down when they are not, instead of being believed and clung to and dominating our lives. A healthy humanity will look much the same.

__________________

My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube, throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fi, Patreon or Paypal, or buying an issue of my monthly zine. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish.

Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.

The Fed is trying to compensate for an earlier mistake (“inflation is transitory”) with yet another mistake (raising rates by another 25bps). The Fed should have stood down today – they did not.

Let me make my case.

Inflation is under control. Over the last six months, Consumer Price Index (CPI) has run at less than 2% annualized. Shelter represents one-third of CPI and commands an even greater share of the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator (Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator), but housing costs are reflected in CPI with a lag. Increased mortgage costs have put the brakes on the housing market: home prices and housing starts/permits are decreasing. The Case Shiller/S&P housing price index peaked in June. Apartment List rents have declined for five months in a row. Both Housing Starts and New Permits are down over 20% from one year ago. Further, the chief culprit in recent inflation, surging money supply, fell by 1.3% in 2022. The last time we had negative money supply (M2) growth was in 1938!

Avoiding recession is still possible. Yes, it is true, my yield curve indicator is code red. I am on record, however, as stating a recession is avoidable. Various factors, including the extraordinary job market with 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person, offer the potential of a soft landing. The Fed, however, can derail this ideal scenario, and in its actions today, damage was done.

The market and the Fed are in a symbiotic situation. The Fed tries to figure out what the market wants, and the market figures out the “least worst” action the Fed is likely to take. In the run-up to this week’s Fed meeting, the market became comfortable with a 25 bp hike (the least-worst scenario), because a 50 bp hike would have spelled disaster.

Why not put previous statements and egos aside and look at the data? Inflation has dramatically slowed. The previous rate hikes will continue to negatively impact shelter costs through the rest of 2023. Why push the US economy into recession? It is unnecessary and, in my opinion, a historic mistake by the Fed.

My hope was that the Fed would stand down today, concluding the data suggest a pause, and should inflation rekindle, its policies could be revisited. It appears the Fed fears making the same mistake Arthur Burns’ Fed made in the 1970s: relatively easy money led to a 9% annual increase in M2 during his tenure as Fed chair. But today’s economy is much different than the economy of 50 years ago. Further, today’s -1.3% annual M2 growth is far from +9.0%.

We didn’t need a 25 bp fed funds hike today, and we certainly don’t need additional hikes. To makes thing worse, the Fed has signaled yet another (unnecessary, in my opinion) hike. We are at a pivotal point in the economic cycle. Overshooting the runway is never a good idea.

https://gainspainscapital.com/

Few Things Destroy an Investor’s Portfolio Like This

Posted on January 31, 2023 by The Phoenix

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks are now in a strange time in which they do not perceive any major threats.

As a result of this, the bulls are buying stocks based on the usual “the Fed is about to pivot” nonsense. And they’re in for a world of pain.
Last year (2022) the big threat was inflation. Inflation, combined with the Fed tightening monetary policy, forced Treasury yields higher. With yields hitting 4% or higher in some cases, stocks were no longer as attractive as an investment class. So the stock market was repriced downwards from 20-22 times forward earnings to 16-18 times forward earnings.
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However, as the above chart shows, since October 2022, Treasury yields have stabilized. With yields no longer rising, the threat of inflation has “disappeared” as far as stocks are concerned. And so investors have begun pouring back into the stock market based on the hope that the Fed will soon end its monetary tightening.

This is horribly misguided. Few things destroy an investor’s portfolio like buying stocks during a recession based on hope that the Fed will start easing monetary policy. And rest assured, the same bond market that told us inflation was out of control, is now telling us that a recession has arrived.
So what happens to stock bulls who buy stocks going into a recession? Well, the last two times, stocks did this:
https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-con.../GPC119233.png

In simple terms, the markets are setting up to deal out a load of pain to stock market bulls in the coming weeks.
But you don’t need to be one of them!

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.
It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.Paragraph
To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:
https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=m5

Good morning Domenico

I have changed my educated guess on (NFP) Non Farm Payroll Job Number to be announced this morning at 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time from 25,000 jobs created to 75,000 jobs created. We shall see in 2 hours and 37 minutes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ollective-west

Escobar: The Trials And Tribulations Of The Collective West

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by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Feb 02, 2023 - 11:50 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Sit back, relax and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both...
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=GBnF_T55

One may be excused to imagine all sorts of amusement games unrolling at the HQ of the Russian General Staff as The Empire and NATO go literally bonkers.


What crazy stunt will they come up with next – short of WWIII?

Here is a delightful put down of NATO’s dementia praecox. Everything so far has failed, from “crippling sanctions” to all sorts of wunderwaffen, while the whole Global South marvels at the exploits of Wagner PMC – now configured as the planet’s top urban fighting machine.

CIA mouthpiece Washington Post duly released how Washington, once again, had the Liver Sausage Chancellor Scholz for breakfast, lunch and dinner. The idea was floated by Secretary of State Tony Blinken: let’s announce we will deliver M1 Abrams to Ukraine in a hazy, unspecified future, thus providing cover for Scholz to release the Leopards now.

Don’t you just love German sovereignty in action?

Every military analyst with an IQ over room temperature knows all those Leopards will be duly incinerated – or better yet, captured, and dissected by Russian military specialists.

So what happens next is yet another vector of the – very successful so far – U.S.-unleashed German de-industrialization racket: the Americans will invade the German industrial military complex with their “much improved” Abrams – which may perhaps arrive in 2024, when only a rump Ukraine may still exist, or never arrive at all. So no need for the Abrams to prove themselves in actual combat – as in being captured and/or incinerated.

Rumors in Washington advance that the U.S. “strategy” in Ukraine – extensively detailed by endless think tank reports – had to be adapted. It’s not about “defeating Russia” anymore, but providing Kiev with the means to “scare” Russia. The Russian General Staff must be trembling in their boots.
Meanwhile, in real life, nearly every possible scenario gamed in Washington and Brussels finishes with NATO like a giant, armored version of Wile E. Coyote plunging to the depths of the Grand Canyon. And that happens even if the much bally-hooded “Big Arrow” Russian offensive starts in a few days or weeks, or never starts at all.

Arguably the Russian General Staff has concluded a long time ago there’s no point in reducing Ukraine to rubble in a matter of hours – something they could easily accomplish. Thus the fabled mincing machine approach – offering no excuses for NATO to “escalate” (which they continue to do anyway, as Jens “War is Peace” Stoltenberg is so fond of parroting).

The trick is that NATO’s escalation overdrive, as it happens, is somewhat controlled by the Russian General Staff, which is always calculating which optimal maneuvers will consume NATO’s military hardware faster. Call it a Russian version of the popular axiom “frog in a boiling pot doesn’t realize it’s being cooked until it croaks.”

Attacking Russia-China-Iran
Absolute desperation is now graphically extrapolating into attacks on Iran. Both Russia and China have Iran as their key ally in West Asia for the whole, complex process of Eurasia integration; strategic partnerships interlink the trio.

So attacking the Ministry of Defense in Isfahan with drones – total fail – and bombing an IRGC convoy of humanitarian aid crossing from Iraq to Syria is a serious U.S.-Israel-coordinated provocation.

Essentially these are also attacks against Russia and China. Israel cannot lift its hand or foot without U.S. permission. Iranian intel may be able to establish how the Straussian neo-con and neoliberal-con cabal in charge of U.S. foreign policy authorized if not ordered these attacks, which of course are directly connected to NATO’s desperation in Ukraine.

When in doubt, just come back to Zbig “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski: “Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia and perhaps, Iran, an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by contemporary grievances. It would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc.”

And mirroring Ukraine/Russia there’s of course Taiwan/China.

As Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has extensively explained, if Taiwan manufactures chips for U.S. missiles Washington then sends to Taiwan for its “self-defense”, but Taiwan needs to wait because the missiles are needed in Ukraine instead, or chips can’t be shipped to the U.S. owing to a possible sea and air blockade imposed by China, the Americans will be operationally ill-equipped to support their two-front war against peer competitors Russia and China.
Bye bye Pax Americana. It’s the fear, actually paranoia, of a destroyed Taiwan – and the destruction in every scenario would be provoked by the Americans themselves – that has led the Straussian neo-con and neoliberal-con cabal to demand their chips be Made in USA.
On the energy front, since U.S. energy costs are low, Washington gambled that much of the de industrialization of Germany would revert to American benefit. Yet since Iranian, Russian and Venezuelan oil prices are lower than the U.S., not much production may be shifting to the Hegemony: it will go to China.

To the bottom of the Grand Canyon!
The January 10 joint declaration between EU-NATO graphically shows how the EU is no more than the P.R. arm of NATO.
This NATO-EU joint mission consists in using all economic, political and military means to make sure the “jungle” always behaves according to the “rules-based international order” and accepts to be plundered ad infinitum by the “blooming garden”.

So in the end what’s left of “Europe”, when it’s NATO – actually Washington – that really rules?

“Europe”, according to relentless propaganda, means defending “our values” – as in peace, democracy and prosperity. The trick is that unelected elites forced the implicit identification of this imagined, practically sacred “Europe” with the European Union. And that’s how the EU has acquired a mythical identity.

Of course, in real life the EU – as in the real, politically organized “Europe” – has performed as a toxic instrument of division among European peoples.
Instead of peace, it has invested in all-out rabid war against Russia. The EU is arguably the most democratically irresponsible institution on the planet: spend a day in Brussels and you understand everything. And instead of prosperity, the EU has institutionalized austerity.

So sit back, relax and enjoy a race to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. The only question is who will get there first: the EU, NATO, or both.