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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,201
  • May 1, 2007 7:17pm May 1, 2007 7:17pm
20:14 The Tokyo fix is in 40 minutes and may provide some aciton, since Tokyo will be out on holiday for the remainder of the week.
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  • #4,202
  • May 1, 2007 7:28pm May 1, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
20:14 The Tokyo fix is in 40 minutes and may provide some aciton, since Tokyo will be out on holiday for the remainder of the week.

Cesar,

You have said "Tokyo fix", what is that refered to? are they like to buy Yen back, when it drop?
  • #4,203
  • May 1, 2007 7:37pm May 1, 2007 7:37pm
looks like one, but i thought that way over thanksgiving, going south, and look where it left me!!! this market has a tendency of getting you thinking one way and then drops a bomb the other. alll i have heard latley is how bad the economy is doing here in the states, yet the dow is surging, unemployment is at 4.5%, personal income is up by 6%, and corporate profits are way up, partly due to the drop in value of the greenback. i just do not get the low value of the yen, when their economy is supposedly doing soooo much better than the u.s. economy is. sorry, but i see manipulation of the jpy and i think they will let it unwind at an opportune time for them and make a few trillion. i just hope to have a few bucks to ride the waterfall down. just not seeing this move up as a proper view of the technicals of econmies. imo, i see this as a sucker move, i just figure that i can ride this and make a few bucks as well. like i said, i have crainial/rectal in understaqnding this market, i need a plunger to rectify it, and maybe some help from you guys here to give a little pull.
  • #4,204
  • May 1, 2007 8:06pm May 1, 2007 8:06pm
240-242 will on its way in just a short while due to this report:

[00:45 UK Econ: Speculation Grows That UK Rates May Hit 6% - UK Times] Sydney, May 2: The UK Times reports in today"s edition that speculation is growing in London that the Bank of England might have to get more aggressive in their monetary policy and push rates to 6% in light of the strong CBI report released yesterday. The CBI report showed that retail sales surged ahead last month, to their strongest levels in almost three years. The report also showed that price pressures continue to build up in manufacturing as companies try to bolster profit margins. The current rate is 5.25%, but the market has already factored in another 25 BP hike to 5.5% by the BOE when they announce their verdict on May10. The GBP gained ground across the board when the CBI report was released yesterday with the EUR/GBP falling from 0.6825 to 0.6805 while the GBP/USD broketough resistance at 2.0060 to trade up to 2.0075 before falling sharply in the wake of strong US ISM data. The GBP/USD has traded with a heavy tone in Asia this morning, but the hawkish turn in BOE expectations should provide good support on dips from here. Key support is found at the 20-day MA around 1.9905 and buying dips with a stop below that level is the favoured strategy. The GBP/USD trades 1.9975/80.

  • #4,205
  • May 1, 2007 8:08pm May 1, 2007 8:08pm
Please note that I have made adjustments to both the static levels (black) and the dynamic River levels (blue) based on the price action over the last 5 weeks. The static levels will be fixed for approximately 4-5 weeks depending on volatility.

The model has changed and we are trading at the River level of 239.27 so my bias has moved to Neutral until this level is resolved. Traders may wish to stand aside until the next directional move becomes clearer. If you trade, expect volatility on the hourly closes.


Long Strategy (Neutral)
If you are holding longs, stay long. Risk is an hourly close below 239.27. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here.
Traders can look to set new longs on an hourly close above 239.18. Target is 241.84. Exit completely here.

Short Strategy (Neutral)

Traders can enter new shorts on an hourly close below 238.80. Risk is an hourly close above River at 239.27.Target is 236.53. Cover completely here.

http://www.rivertheory.com/storage/gbpjpy5-2-2007.PNG
  • #4,206
  • Edited 9:19pm May 1, 2007 9:08pm | Edited 9:19pm
GBP/USD is coming down.............1.9962, hopefully it will hold 1.9950.
  • #4,207
  • May 1, 2007 9:20pm May 1, 2007 9:20pm
thanks for the note drt, i have been visiting your site, thanks for that as well. i have seen volitility from time to time and always seem to be away from the computer to get any action. was wondering if you have any tips on when to look for time frames of trading, i was thinking of early in the moprning seems to porvide some good movement. seems to be the nighttime around now sees some movement, just have to look for around 20 or 30 pips during asian market. am i seeing it right.
  • #4,208
  • May 1, 2007 9:24pm May 1, 2007 9:24pm
Quote
GBP/USD is coming down.............1.9962, hopefully it will hold 1.9950
what analysis about that statement ?
  • #4,209
  • May 1, 2007 10:23pm May 1, 2007 10:23pm
Cable falling below 9950...if UJ bounces off 120 we may have a nice retracement on the geppy, no?
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
  • #4,210
  • May 1, 2007 10:23pm May 1, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting garitempe
what analysis about that statement ?
On page 280, message# 4198 by Cesar
  • #4,211
  • May 2, 2007 1:43am May 2, 2007 1:43am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
The model has changed and we are trading at the River level of 239.27 so my bias has moved to Neutral until this level is resolved. Traders may wish to stand aside until the next directional move becomes clearer. If you trade, expect volatility on the hourly closes.
And so the bottom line is stay away?
Gone to a better place
  • #4,212
  • May 2, 2007 2:02am May 2, 2007 2:02am
IMHO the bottom line is trade what u see. Others can give inputs but in the end.. It is u alone who need to plan ur trade and trade what u plan.
  • #4,213
  • May 2, 2007 2:45am May 2, 2007 2:45am
Quoting dd33
IMHO the bottom line is trade what u see. Others can give inputs but in the end.. It is u alone who need to plan ur trade and trade what u plan.
I agree. Thank you for your input. I probably didn't think through that post. The thing is, I agree with DRT.

The trend is nearing historic highs (see my earlier post). Add to this the seeming strengthening of the dollar and I have a perfect scenario for "I don't know what to do".

I am planning to stay out for now. I am waiting to see what the dollar does.
Gone to a better place
  • #4,214
  • May 2, 2007 4:19am May 2, 2007 4:19am
Quoting trader8686
On page 280, message# 4198 by Cesar
yup... I was stopped out at 9940.... Too excessive the extension below 9950 if compared to Euro below 1.36.

We will have to deal with this kind of excessive behavior while Tokyo is out.

Cable is in this annoying consolidation period, raning 9900-0050s for days.... Let's check on UJ above 120, if it holds.... If cable gets back to 2.0, we are talking about GJ at 240....
  • #4,215
  • May 2, 2007 8:18am May 2, 2007 8:18am
UJ is probably going to retest highs. GBP is heading up I believe to retest 2.0. PJ is driving me crazy as usual, last night's dive made me loose pips.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,216
  • May 2, 2007 8:41am May 2, 2007 8:41am
09:39 Look out for some funky price action in USD/JPY for 10 am expiry
  • #4,217
  • May 2, 2007 8:47am May 2, 2007 8:47am
Quoting cesarnc
09:39 Look out for some funky price action in USD/JPY for 10 am expiry
Define funky - as in volitile?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,218
  • May 2, 2007 8:58am May 2, 2007 8:58am
Quoting Sami7
UJ is probably going to retest highs. GBP is heading up I believe to retest 2.0. PJ is driving me crazy as usual, last night's dive made me loose pips.
What is "PJ" ??

Well, Down Jones started crazy and going up fast. Too bad Cable is in bad shape now, so flows are going to EURJPY, that it is already at extreme high level, so bad time to go in....

We are trapped here until GBPUSD find some good soul to start buying...

9860/50 said to shelter the buyers, so this is going to be a loooong day if this is true.
  • #4,219
  • May 2, 2007 9:05am May 2, 2007 9:05am
Quoting cesarnc
What is "PJ" ??

Well, Down Jones started crazy and going up fast. Too bad Cable is in bad shape now, so flows are going to EURJPY, that it is already at extreme high level, so bad time to go in....

We are trapped here until GBPUSD find some good soul to start buying...

9860/50 said to shelter the buyers, so this is going to be a loooong day if this is true.
PJ like UJ (Pound - Japanese Yen)
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #4,220
  • May 2, 2007 9:25am May 2, 2007 9:25am
of the most recent move up - we are sitting at the 61.8% fibo on the hourly chart. Looking like more time down if we get an hourly close below this level - will be interesting to see if goes to 238.46 - 100% retracement. Anyone?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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