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  • #1
  • First Post: May 1, 2007 10:55am May 1, 2007 10:55am
Here is a topic for discussion:

A lot of traders and investors argue whether or not one day trading will be done completely by computers.

I know we have a variation of this reality today, we call them EA's, but do they really work in the long run?

Think about this -
The market is always changing, and since a computer can not think logically and needs a mechanical system to trade, and a mechanical system needs parameters to trade and parameters will not work as market conditions change will computers ever be able to "out-trade" a human? (I know that is sort of a run on sentence, but I hope it gets my point across)

....I'am one trader who hopes computers never dominate the market. It would destroy everything about trading that I love.
  • #2
  • May 1, 2007 10:58am May 1, 2007 10:58am
My EA breaks even when not profitable.... at least in 6 years of backtests. You can see results on my journal.

Does that mean success will continue? Certainly not. But, if an EA breaks even when not profiting, what more can you ask for? Every mechanical system has weakness and risk.
  • #3
  • May 1, 2007 11:00am May 1, 2007 11:00am
The problem is that it's only backtest.........
  • #4
  • May 1, 2007 11:09am May 1, 2007 11:09am
There are good systems, maybe not EA, which could adjust itself to fit the market.
  • #5
  • May 1, 2007 11:35am May 1, 2007 11:35am
By the time you'd be able to worry about computers dominating trading, I doubt you'll care very much.

Seriously...I've said it before, EA trading is just like any other form of trading...it takes human intervention to make all the pieces run smoothly over time. A computer could eventually be adaptive enough to take advantage of this the unique market movements, but it will be a long long long while before it becomes mainstream enough for any of you to care.

Quoting superdezign
Here is a topic for discussion:

A lot of traders and investors argue whether or not one day trading will be done completely by computers.

I know we have a variation of this reality today, we call them EA's, but do they really work in the long run?

Think about this -
The market is always changing, and since a computer can not think logically and needs a mechanical system to trade, and a mechanical system needs parameters to trade and parameters will not work as market conditions change will computers ever be able to "out-trade" a human? (I know that is sort of a run on sentence, but I hope it gets my point across)

....I'am one trader who hopes computers never dominate the market. It would destroy everything about trading that I love.
  • #6
  • May 1, 2007 11:42am May 1, 2007 11:42am
Quoting superdezign

....I'am one trader who hopes computers never dominate the market. It would destroy everything about trading that I love.
I've only been playing with these things for a few months, but I think you have nothing to worry about.

Trading is an art.

You can take the most solid set of rules, give it to 100 traders, and they will all have different balances at the end of a few weeks or months.
  • #7
  • May 1, 2007 11:42am May 1, 2007 11:42am
Quoting spieler
The problem is that it's only backtest.........
Many backtests are based on unrealistic fills, and show nice equity curves.

My fills are all based on VERIFIED entry and exit points. Forward tests are recorded on my journal to create a track-record.


As for "human intervention" with EAs... that makes me want to laugh. Most traders can't trade a profit from a hole in a wall. I bet that Alparsai's Pipboxer outperforms most FF members.
  • #8
  • May 1, 2007 2:10pm May 1, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting superdezign

A lot of traders and investors argue whether or not one day trading will be done completely by computers.
I'm sure that day will not be happen, cause there are two kind of factors that move the market; technical and fundamental.
Maybe computer can be used for technical, but not for fundamental.

I am more worried about what if money market will crash some day, that money does't exist anymore, or what if there is only one currency for all the world likes euro.
You can't make the market move, but you surely can follow the move!!!
  • #9
  • May 1, 2007 2:28pm May 1, 2007 2:28pm
although you can backtest an EA the EA must be based on parameters in order for a computer to trade it, since the market changes, parameters that worked at one time may no longer work in more recent market conditions.

backtesting validates a theory or system but does not prove that it will work in the long run.
  • #10
  • May 1, 2007 3:11pm May 1, 2007 3:11pm
I'd tried a few EAs which shows promising result in backtest, but in live account, it's going downwards now i'm just doing trades by myself
  • #11
  • May 1, 2007 3:14pm May 1, 2007 3:14pm
Quoting fxhot
I am more worried about what if money market will crash some day, that money does't exist anymore, or what if there is only one currency for all the world likes euro.
The powers that be are making too much money to let the present system go away. There will always be something to trade.
  • #12
  • May 1, 2007 3:26pm May 1, 2007 3:26pm
In my journal, I have shown that trading multiple strategies simultaneously can cancel each others drawdown. No system always wins... they will all have losing streaks.

I think the key is to have a few strategies winning while a few are drawing down.
  • #13
  • May 2, 2007 5:03am May 2, 2007 5:03am
EAs are very good, they help you remove the emotion from a trade, but ... all EAs are created by people
  • #14
  • May 2, 2007 6:43am May 2, 2007 6:43am
Quoting fxhot
I am more worried about what if money market will crash some day, that money does't exist anymore, or what if there is only one currency for all the world likes euro.
Don't worry about a single global currency....if there is no more fx pairs then we trade commodoties such as oil.....if oil runs out then we trade wheat....if the wheat crop gets destroyed by crazy weather then we trade weather futures at the Chicago Merc....if the planet becomes uninhabitable then we all go to the moon and open the Lunar Mercantile Exchange and start trading moon rock futures Bottom line there has always been something somewhere to trade since time began and there always will be.

Have a great trading day.
  • #15
  • May 2, 2007 7:12pm May 2, 2007 7:12pm
i trade eas' live. However, I have found most eas' crash in demo live or make a lot in demo live and give it all back. As far as backtest, they arent worth the electronic print they are printed on. I can give you a backtest that shows millions after one year. You trade it live, and your ass will be handed to you.
  • #16
  • Last Post: Edited 7:53pm May 2, 2007 7:25pm | Edited 7:53pm
A lot of good backtests are impossible. I started a thread about these here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23087

Not all good backtested EAs are crap though.

Quoting 4XWeezal
i trade eas' live. However, I have found most eas' crash in demo live or make a lot in demo live and give it all back. As far as backtest, they arent worth the electronic print they are printed on. I can give you a backtest that shows millions after one year. You trade it live, and your ass will be handed to you.
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