Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

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NATO the Greatest Threat to Civilization

Blog/War

Posted Jan 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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COMMENT: Hi Marty,
I wonder if the downside of the US occupation of Europe since WW2 and US subsidization of military aid has produced a culture of pacifism. Germany’s reluctance to supply tanks to Ukraine suggests other motives.

The media focuses more on Russia and internal dissent against Putin. One reads about defections and men trying to escape the draft. The real symptom is the fraying of NATO and the US mission in Europe.

I seriously doubt Europeans want war. These military alliances die over time. Unless there is a perceived military threat, Nato appears to be a relic like the Maginot Line fortifications in France decades ago.

To my memory, no military alliance has ever lasted long. They usually die off from wars waged or the passing of time. NAto now is on the clock. I think it will die this decade.
MS
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REPLY: NATO is the problem. Russia, and its people, have no desire to invade Europe. The day of communism and its spread as a religious cult is over, except in the West where Socialism is the means of the power of the state and to keep the people dependent upon that power the very exact way that communism worked. Despite the fact that communism collapsed it was so inefficient and deprived the people of even freedom to imagine and curiosity that is the seed of advancing society. Without that freedom to imagine and the curiosity to discover new things, society withers and dies.


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The Neocons see only hatred and war. John McCain openly met with the Neonatzis of Ukraine and promised them the funding to destroy Russia. Nobody thinks about the people. It is always this ideological endeavor to destroy an opponent as if this were a Roman Gladiator Contest to the death. They expect the people to utter the same words – “We who are about to die, salute you.”

NATO is a relic. It has NO PURPOSE unless it can constantly argue that Russia is the enemy and it will conquer all of Europe without NATO. This to me is the same as Athens demanding tribute from Greek cities that became the Delian League. That alliance of Greek city-states led by Athens was formed in 478 BC as a defense to a “possible” revenge invasion from Persia following the Greek victories at Marathon, Salamis, and Plataea during the 5th century BC. Persian never again even attempted such an invasion. But Athens extorted the Greek City States and moved the central Treasury from Delos to Athens and used all that tribute to build great monuments in Athens. The USA is like Athens. It defeated the German Nazis like Athens defeated the Persians. We created NATO to then defend against the Russian Communists, but have supported the Ukrainian Neonazis ever since and protected them from any prosecution.

That exploitation led to discontent and many then joined with Sparta to attack the arrogance of Athens. It was then that Persia supported Sparta to defeat Athens in 404 BC. The question is rather blunt. Will history repeat and Russia join with China to take down the arrogance of the West and make Stolenberg choke on his own words – “Weapons are the way to peace.” Sorry, but Rome showed us the way to peace – inclusion, and trade. The West has done nothing but rejects allowing Russia to enter the Western economy. Once the people are dependent upon trade, that is what creates peace – never arms.
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Athens fell in 404 BC. The cost of defending itself against Sparta backed by the Delian League and Persia led to its debasement of the coinage when the silver was running out. The emergency issue was bronze silver plated. The most common denomination became the drachm – debased at that. If history repeats, then the monetary system of the West will likewise collapse as it pours unjustified money into Ukraine – a government consumed with hatred. Peace will only come when the Ukrainian people overthrow Zelensky and wake up that they are merely being sacrificed in the war of hatred against Russia that is propelled by propaganda.

Just listen to the propaganda being spread by the Prime Minister of Finland who is prepared to also sacrifice her people on the altar of the Neocons.
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NATO has no purpose if there is peace. Like ancient Athens, they must always scare the people and claim that Russia wants to invade and conquer Europe. The Russian people no more want war than the people of Europe. NATO will prevent any peace and using arms only allows them to keep their jobs and spread propaganda to maintain their position.


Categories: War
« Russia Prepared for NATO Invasion

The Arrest and Imprisonment of John Carpay

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Most of you will be aware of the wrongful arrest and near 24-hour imprisonment of John Carpay, constitutional lawyer and president of the Justice Center for Constitutional Freedoms.

In this in-depth and in-person interview, John shares the details of the situation that led to a Canada wide warrant for his arrest on charges of obstruction of justice and intimidation of a judge.

In addition, John discusses the fact that the persecution did not stop with him. Since his arrest and imprisonment another JCCF lawyer was also arrested, under the same charges, even though that lawyer had only peripheral involvement.

Watch HERE

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Bank of Canada: “We’re Pausing to Assess Whether We’ve Done Enough,” Hikes by 1/4% to 4.5%, QT Continues

by Wolf Richter • Jan 25, 2023 •

Will pause if inflation projections pan out. If not, more rate hikes on the table. Frets about upside risks to inflation from services, labor market, China.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the 8th rate hike in a row, totaling 425 basis points in 10 months, bringing the target of the overnight rate to 4.5%. QT will continue and “is complementing the restrictive stance of the policy rate,” the BOC said in the statement.

The coming pause at 4.5%: “If economic developments evolve broadly in line” with BOC’s outlook, it “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.”

BOC Governor Tiff Macklem said later on Wednesday in an interview with Reuters the BOC would pause as long as needed to judge the effectiveness of the cumulative increase in rates and think carefully about the next steps.

But with inflation still at 6.3%, “the question really we’re asking ourselves is, ‘Have we done enough?,’” BOC Governor Tiff Macklem said later on Wednesday in an interview with Reuters. “We’re pausing to assess whether we’ve done enough.”

More rate hikes if inflation doesn’t cooperate: Inflation was still over three times the BOC’s target, though it slowed from 8.1% in June 2022, as gasoline prices plunged and some durable goods prices dropped. The BOC is now projecting that it will come down rapidly to 3% by the end of this year and to 2% by the end of next year. But the statement and Macklem separately pointed out that this may be illusory.

The risks to the projections come from services inflation, the tight labor market along with wage growth, and the reopening of China’s economy, the BOC and Macklem pointed out.

Services inflation is in full bloom and got a worried nod from Macklem in the interview. If services inflation sticks around, “you’re not going to see inflation come down as we forecast and yes, in that case, we probably will need to do more,” he said.

In its statement, the BOC said that it “is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target.

Rate cuts not on the table: “We’re not talking about cuts. We’re not even thinking about cuts…,” Macklem said.
The idea is this: If inflation doesn’t follow the BOC’s projected path, if instead inflation dishes up surprises, as inflation typically does, and if services inflation is entrenched and won’t budge, then there may be more rate hikes.

If inflation follows the instructions issued by the BOC, and “as things start to get more back to normal, at some point, yes, we probably will be thinking about some modest cuts in interest rates,” Macklem said.

Pricking the housing bubble. The housing bubble had become an official issue for the BOC back in April 2021. “You won’t be surprised to hear that we also spent some time discussing what is happening in the housing market,” Macklem said back then in his opening statement following the BOC meeting, and he has been talking about it ever since.

And what was once one of the biggest most breath-taking housing bubbles in the world is now deflating at a rapid pace.
Home prices in Canada dropped by 17.4% in December from the peak in March 2022, and by 7.5% year-over-year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Sales plunged by 39% year-over-year. The composite benchmark price of the Canada MLS Home Price Index for all types of homes has now dropped by C$151,300 in nine months since the rate hikes started.

Whether or not the BOC’s tightening will knock down inflation the way the BOC is projecting remains to be seen. But tightening has started to take down this splendid housing bubble that the BOC had so vigorously inflated and then so vigorously fretted about:
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Hoards Are Vital to our Understanding of History

Blog/Ancient Economies

Posted Jan 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

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QUESTION: Why do you buy hoards? It is interesting. Just curious.
JY
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ANSWER: The coinage is the ONLY way to truly confirm the history. Much of the most important periods like the 3rd century AD, the fall of the Republic, or the Revolution during the Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC known as the Social War, can only be properly understood through the coinage lacking really detailed accounts of financially what was taking place. By recreating the monetary system using coinage, I was able to answer the question – How did Rome Fall? Gradually? Or Catastrophically? By assembling all the coinage, and testing it out, I could establish what nobody else could do using documents or archaeological digs. Rome collapsed in just 8.6 years.
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That was then observed in testing and using the same methods around the world. The collapse of the English coinage that inspired Gresham’s Law, bad money drives out good, also took just 8 years.

The Great Monetary Crisis of 1092 saw the gold content collapse also in just 8 years. The same pattern has unfolded time and time again. History repeats NOT because of wars or abstract theories. It repeats simply because human nature never changes – on technology.
The computer was about to forecast the fall of Communism in 1989.95 and it spread and took down the Berlin wall a few months after Tiananmen Square. People attributed that to modern communication. That was nonsense, The Roman Republic fell in 509 BC, and in the same few months in Athens, they too overthrew their tyrants, and Democracy was born.

The question is NOT how fast the information spreads. It could have traveled from Rome to Athens in a few days. The real question is how long does it take to filter through society to create political change?
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Therefore, assembling the number of coins by examining hoards and the number of different dies multiplied by 15,000 will give us a good idea of the money supply at that time as illustrated above. Granted, this research project cost tens of millions of dollars to produce. Nonetheless, it has yielded a wealth of information that enabled us to see specifically what took place economically. Human nature has not changed. When Rome burned, Nero did visit the victims. Tiberius issued coins for the aid of Asia when a major earthquake devastated the region we call Turkey today.

I am finishing a book on the famous Battle of Actium where Mark Antony lost to Octavian giving birth to Imperial Rome. The number of dies and the amount of coins issued by Antony demonstrates that the entire wealth of Egypt was at his disposal and it was really an Egyptian proxy war against Rome. The number of silver denarii struck had to be at least 25 million. The sheer massive amount of the increase in the money supply thanks to Egypt was huge. Antony’s coins remained in circulation for decades, although very work. They were the most common coin found in hoards at Pompeii in 79AD about 100 years later. Hoards enable us to see the cost of that war and how it changed Egypt and Rome.

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Where Rome began with bronze as its monetary unit and one pound was known as a Roman As, we can see that the price of the Punic Wars as what was one pound of bronze consistently declined. Here we found it was six waves of 51.6 years which are in themselves six waves of 8.6 years, that produced the major wave of 309.6 years. So if we look from the beginning of the Roman As being 341 grams in 280 BC, by the time we get to Nero in 54AD, the Roman As was about only 10 grams.
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Even looking at the reforms of Diocletian in 295AD, his introduction of the follis declines remarkably also following the six waves of 8.6 years. I have looked at the monetary systems of Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas. they have conformed to the Economic Confidence Model confirming that this is a cycle that clearly incorporates everything from war to climate change.
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Even though Emperor Titus’ (79-81AD) reign was marked by a relative absence of military and political conflicts after his father, Vespasian (69-79AD) had defeated Judaea was defeated, there were several disasters during his brief leadership. On October 24 in 79 AD, Mount Vesuvius erupted and almost destroyed the cities and resort communities around Naples. The cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum were buried under stones and lava in 79AD shortly after Titus (79-81AD) came to power. Titus made all efforts to help the victims of the volcano and donated large amounts of money from the imperial treasury. The emperor visited Pompeii right after the tragedy happened.
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A single silver denarius was discovered in 1974 among the 180 silver coins buried in Pompeii. When it was cataloged, it overturned history. Titus’ father died on June 24th, 79 AD. Therefore, any coin of Titus as emperor would have to have the very first recording of his power “IMP VIIII” or 8th Imperator, which was a title that meant ‘leader of the army’ to the Romans. The coin discovered in Pompeii had the legend “IMP XV,” which was granted to Titus for the war in Britannia. Titus sent Gnaeus Julius Agricola who pushed further into Caledonia and managed to establish several forts there as recorded by Tacitus (Agricola 22). Therefore, Titus received the title of Imperator for the fifteenth time for this event, according to Cassius Dio (Roman History LXVI.20). This took place we know in September 79 AD about 3 months after becoming emperor following his father’s death. Obviously, if any coin was discovered in the ruins of Pompeii with “IMP XV” in its legend, then this provides absolute proof that the date for Vesuvius of August 24th, 79 AD cannot be correct.
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Archeologists in Pompeii have discovered a remarkable inscription written in charcoal which has survived the catastrophe confirming that the eruption of Mt Vesuvius indeed took place in October 79AD as confirmed by the coin discovered and ignored by historians. The charcoal writing, discovered on the wall of a villa during a new phase of excavations, adds weight to a theory that the volcano destroyed the town in October 79AD rather than August of that year in line with Cassio Dio and the denarius of Titus. The date of August 24th, 79 AD, came from a letter addressed by Pliny the Younger to the Roman historian Tacitus, originally written some 25 years after the event.
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Titus devoted much of his silver coinage of Atonement to the gods for the disaster of Pompeii. There were four main Atonement issues commemorating the services of prayer and propitiation through which the emperor attempted to address the public alarm over the disaster. People often attributed such events to the gods being angry. The coinage showed emblems seeking the approval of Jupiter, Neptune, Apollo, and the deceased former Emperors to watch over the Roman people.

News actually spread rapidly around the Roman Empire. There were formal boards where notices would be posted in which important news and major events would be informed to the people much like such a board in a big company with notices to the employees. These boards were called the Acta Diurna and they were designed to inform the Roman people thereby avoiding fake news. We could call them ancient billboards in modern terms and even government officials would walk up and pin a written notice and the crowds would rush to see what is news. Thus, everyone knew of Pompeii in a matter of days. It did not take long for information to circulate.
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Because the coin dies back then were hand carved, we are able to identify the number of dies in use during a given year because each is unique. Just look at these portraits on the famous Tribute Penny of Tiberius (14-37AD). It all depended upon the artistic ability of the engraver.

The coin itself has taken its name because Jesus, referring to a denarius, which the English translated to “penny” because that was their silver coin, asked: “Whose is this image and superscription?” When answered that the likeness was Caesar, He replied; ”Render therefore unto Caesar the things which are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s” (Matthew 22:20-21). Thus, the coin has been called the tribute penny meaning that was how you paid your taxes.

Hoards have enabled me to (1) see what was in circulation at that point in time for the hoard can be dated to around the most recent coin in the hoard. (2) I also have a number of ancient Roman dies like this one of Tiberius. Studies creating modern dies to test how many coins could be struck from such a die before it cracked provides a picture of about 15,000 coins.
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By completing die studies quantifying how many were in use, it then becomes possible to estimate the money supply. Here we can see that during the Social War of 90-87BC, there is a drastic increase in the quantity of coinage issued obviously to pay for soldiers. However, conducting metal testing on the coinage of this period, we find that Rome also debased the coinage slightly adding up to 10% copper to the silver. Therefore, studying hoards allows one to actually ascertain the extreme of monetary affairs.
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The Social War of the First Century BC was a failed Revolution against the corrupt Republic. The rebellion was waged by ancient Rome’s Italian allies (socii) who were denied equal rights with the Romans, despite the fact that they also fought alongside Romans in battle. They were seeking to separate and thus they fought for independence. Here are the coins of the rebels. They are very rare. You can see the theme celebrating the female head of Italia.
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The allies in central and southern Italy had fought side by side with Rome in several wars and had grown restive under Roman autocratic rule, wanting instead Roman citizenship and the privileges it conferred. In 91 BC, the Roman tribune Marcus Livius Drusus proposed granting them Roman citizenship. The arrogance of the Senators erupted into a heated opposition. They went as far as to even Drusus for daring to propose such a decree. That resulted in the revolution.
When I dug deeper, the coinage with the debasement also reveals that there was a financial crisis. In all honesty, it was the Debt Crisis that ended the Roman Republic. There was a Sovereign Debt Crisis during the Roman Republic period that resulted in a dictatorship and a debt default. The Roman Debt Crisis of the 1st century BC has left behind a vivid account of what took place. The volume of gold and silver in Italy had increased dramatically during the late 2nd century BC following the Punic Wars. We have the first real gold coins issued by the Roman Republic at that time.
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However, this concentration of wealth, which was akin to the United States after World War I and II, was absorbed by commercial expansion and investment in Gaul and Asia. A period of excessive concentration of money and large profits came to an end with the rise of the Social War of 91-88BC which was a war waged between the Roman Republic and several of the other cities in Italy (no taxation without representation), which prior to the war had been Roman allies for centuries. The war was begun by the Picentes because the Romans did not want to afford them Roman citizenship, thus leaving the Italian groups with fewer rights. The war resulted in a Roman victory and genocide against the Samnites. However, Rome granted Roman citizenship to almost all of its Italian allies, including the Samnites, to avoid another war. Therefore, we find that the debt crisis was correlated with a separatist movement – which we are beginning to see worldwide starting in Europe, but will eventually become a contagion in the United States as the conflict between left and right erupts after the November elections.
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The Social War led to the complete state bankruptcy of the Roman State. We can see the dramatic rise in the money supply created during this time of war. This turmoil was then followed by the dictatorship of Sulla who then imposed an attempt to control the debt crisis capping interest rates at 12%. The previous legal rate was capped at 8.5%, but obviously, the market had exceeded that limit and Sulla had to confront that reality in 88BC. The debt crisis continued and then in 86 BC, the government was compelled into default. This is when the Valerian Law came into play. The State debts were defaulted on and thus reduced to 25%.


Categories: Ancient Economies, Ancient History

« J.P. Morgan was an Ancient Coin Collector

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Story at-a-glance

1. In March, the United Nations New World Order (UNNWO) announced its annual International Day of Happiness global campaign, along with a call for solidarity and unity in the global fight against COVID-19
2. The UNNWO goals, such as ending poverty, hunger, gender inequality and polluted water, sound admirable, but are just pawns used to further a one-world government regime with power concentrated in the hands of a few billionaires
3. A one-world government tactic that New World Order relies on is media censorship, which the liberal “fact-checking” group Media Matters is now advocating for anyone who doesn’t align with the New World Order mission
4. The World Health Organization, whose biggest funders include the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, aims to vaccinate everyone across the globe by 2030 and to track who has and has not been vaccinated
5. Mass COVID-19 vaccination poses health dangers and even vaccine advocate Bill Gates predicts adverse reactions to the vaccine will claim 700,000 victims

From Dr. Joseph Mercola
Since COVID-19 first entered the scene, exchange of ideas has basically been outlawed. By sharing my views and those from various experts throughout the pandemic on COVID treatments and the experimental COVID jabs, I became a main target of the White House, the political establishment and the global cabal.

Propaganda and pervasive censorship have been deployed to seize control over every part of your life, including your health, finances and food supply. The major media is a key player and has been instrumental in creating and fueling fear.

I am republishing this article in its original form so that you can see how the progression unfolded.

Originally published: 07/28/2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is being used to facilitate the efforts of a select few to create a one-world government with power concentrated in the hands of an elitist group of billionaires.

In March 2020, the United Nations New World Order (UNNWO) announced their annual International Day of Happiness global campaign, along with a call for solidarity and unity in the global fight against COVID-19. (1) The campaign theme, according to UNNWO, was 2)
“… a call on all 7.8 billion members of the global human family, and all 206 nations and territories of planet earth, to unite in solidarity, and steadfast resolve, in fighting back against the COVID 19 Coronavirus …”

While the UNNWO sustainability goals, such as addressing poverty, hunger, polluted waterways, and more, sound admirable, (3) they rely on one-world government manipulations such as media censorship, mass surveillance of citizens and total governmental control of your health care decisions, as I will explain in detail in this article.

One clear example of the dangers of one-world initiatives is the World Health Organization’s Immunization Agenda 2030, in which the aim is to vaccinate everyone across the globe. (4)Bill Gates of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, a big WHO funder, has stated he intends to vaccinate the global population against COVID-19, (5) and then track and monitor each person through digital surveillance. (6) The Rockefeller Foundation also supports mass-tracking of the citizenry — all under the guise of “public health.” (7) The reasoning for this is to stop the pandemic.

But, will a gigantic global disease surveillance system created under the pretext of COVID-19 be dismantled once the pandemic is declared over? Or, will it simply morph into other surveillance functions also presented as mechanisms to protect the “public health?”

Vaccine Mania Has Gripped the Nation
As the COVID-19 pandemic passed its six-month mark and the number of reported cases in some countries and states rose, the focus on a vaccine intensified, with numerous vaccine makers vying to be first with results.
That distinction came in mid-July, when the initial results from a clinical trial of a vaccine candidate developed by Moderna, sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, received a positive write-up in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) (8) and pleased Wall Street. (9)
What’s interesting is that Moderna has “never produced an approved vaccine or run a large trial,” according to Stat News. Yet, it seized the COVID-19 opportunity (10) and forged ahead. When you think about it, though, the exuberance over the vaccine candidate is irrational.
First, as with all vaccines, adverse effects can and will sometimes occur. Even fiercely pro-vaccine advocates have expressed concerns about possible adverse effects of a hurried-up COVID-19 vaccine.

From Bill Gates (11) (more on that later in this article) to Merck CEO Kenneth Frazier, (12) to rota virus vaccine inventor Dr. Paul Offit (13) — who once held the Merck-endowed chair in vaccinology (14) at The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia — high-profile individuals are talking about it.
Offit expressed reservations about how fast the vaccine companies were pushing development of the vaccine, and warned of possible safety and efficacy problems that could occur from giving it to thousands of people “without a large safety and efficacy trial.”
Frazier had similar concerns, with a more strongly-worded comment: “If you’re going to use a vaccine on billions of people, you better know what that vaccine does.” Along that same line of thinking is the concern — as with all vaccines — that the immunity and/or duration is not assured because the “immunity” is not naturally acquired.

Another concern is that contact tracing and computer apps to determine the whereabouts and contacts of a person who may have been exposed are much too aggressive. For example, even if someone has no symptoms of COVID-19, governments, whether local or national, will have the ability to quarantine a person against their will, according to a You Tuber who recounts her contact tracing training in a video. (15)

Moreover, according to top legal scholar Alan Dershowitz, (16) a 115-year-old U.S. Supreme Court ruling allows authorities to legally inoculate someone with a vaccine against their will for the purpose of safeguarding public health. On the other hand, they cannot do so if the vaccine is intended only to protect a person’s personal health, he says.

While other legal scholars debate just how far the federal government can go with this, (17) such threats to your rights and health continue to grow. And, certain media groups, who should be supporters of free speech, are leading the charge to take away your free speech rights. Standing at the forefront, the liberal “fact-checking” group Media Matters is trying to discredit vaccine safety groups who they believe could stand in the way of worldwide vaccination. (18)
Media Matters Pushes Censorship of Vaccine Safety Groups

A smear piece from Media Matters, titled “The Most Notorious Anti-VAX Groups Use Facebook to Lay the Groundwork Against the Novel Coronavirus Vaccine,” (19) lays the groundwork for discrediting the National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC), Children’s Health Defense and Informed Consent Action Network. The article begins by casting such groups as a threat during COVID-19 20)

“As novel coronavirus cases spike in the U.S. and numerous efforts are underway to develop a vaccine, the most prominent U.S. anti-vaccination organizations are using Facebook and other social media platforms to poison the well against a potential vaccine.”

Media Matters is angry that Facebook allows the groups’ social media communications to appear educational rather than branding them as “vaccine misinformation.” This is especially important, writes Media Matters, because support for vaccination among the general public is falling 21)
“Support in the U.S. for vaccination generally has been on a downward trend for the past two decades. A January 2020 poll released by Gallup found that 84% of Americans believe it is ‘important’ to vaccinate children, down from 94% in 2001.

The poll found that support for vaccination has declined ‘among almost all subgroups of the U.S. public.’ Gallup attributed the decline in support for vaccination to the spread of false information about vaccines, in particular the debunked link between vaccines and autism.”


Download PDF

Vaccination Is Becoming a Hard Sell
Media Matters cites a 2014 study published in the journal Pediatrics
(22) that identified four ways in which the desirability of vaccination is promoted and how none of the messages is working. The four attempts to “reduce vaccine misconceptions and increase vaccination rates for measles-mumps-rubella (MMR)” were listed by the journal as 23)

1. Information explaining the lack of evidence that MMR causes autism from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2. Textual information about the dangers of the diseases prevented by MMR from the Vaccine Information Statement
3. Images of children who have diseases prevented by the MMR vaccine
4. A dramatic narrative about an infant who almost died of measles from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fact sheet

However, the messages are not working and possibly even backfiring, says Media Matters. (24) [And] “… attempts to ‘correct false claims about vaccines may be especially likely to be counterproductive.'”

The messages likely backfire because Big Pharma and its buddy, Big Biotech, suffer from a credibility problem — in the case of Big Pharma, from the many medications it has withdrawn after assuring the public they were safe (25) Moreover, “anti-vaccination content” — as Media Matters calls it — may be more compelling than messages designed to sell vaccination 26)
“Another negative factor in play at Facebook and other social media outlets is that research suggests that anti-vaccination content tends to be more popular than pro-vaccine content and anti-vaccine messages …”
The messages are also likely ringing stronger with younger people who tend to be the biggest users of social media, Media Matters admits 27)
“According to a report from Center for Countering Digital Hate … Americans who ‘use social media more than traditional media to access news and updates about Covid’ say that they will get vaccinated against coronavirus at a rate 10 points lower compared to those who primarily consume traditional media.”

Media Matters Has a Huge Influence on Mainstream Media
Media Matters’ initial $2 million in funding came from wealthy progressives via the Tides Foundation,(28) with additional funding from MoveOn.org and the New Democrat Network, according to National Review.(29) In 2010, George Soros, one of the richest people in the world, gave the group $1 million, according to The New York Times.(30)
The self-proclaimed “fact checking group,” founded by conservative-turned-progressive David Brock,(31) states that its mission is to counteract conservative media, and it has been very successful. According to the Daily Caller 32)
“The group scored its first significant public coup in 2007 with the firing of host Don Imus from MSNBC. Just before Easter that year, a Media Matters employee recorded Imus’s now-famous attack on the Rutgers women’s basketball team, and immediately recognized its inflammatory potential.
The organization swung into action, notifying organizations like the NAACP, the National Association of Black Journalists, and Al Sharpton’s National Action Network, all of which joined the fight … By the end of the week, Imus was fired.”
Media Matters then enlisted the National Hispanic Media Coalition, League of United Latin American Citizens and similar groups to pressure CNN advertisers to oust anchor Lou Dobbs from CNN for alleged racist comments.(33) In November 2009, Dobbs left CNN, and the Daily Caller quotes a Media Matters staffer who said, “We got him fired.” (34)
Media Matters also launched what they dubbed a “campaign to expose Glenn Beck’s racist rhetoric in an effort to educate advertisers about the practices on his show.” The campaign facilitated his departure from Fox News. (35)
Media Matters is also able to place their biased stories in mainstream outlets as real news. According to the Daily Caller, sources from the organization bragged about planting stories in The Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Los Angeles Times and on blogs such as the Daily Kos, Salon and HuffPost. They also reported a warm reception at The New York Times 36)

“Jim Rainey at the LA Times took a lot of our stuff,” the staffer continued. “So did Joe Garofoli at the San Francisco Chronicle. We’ve pushed stories to Eugene Robinson and E.J. Dionne [at the Washington Post]. Brian Stelter at the New York Times was helpful.
Ben Smith [formerly of Politico, now at Buzz Feed.com] will take stories and write what you want him to write,” explained the former employee, whose account was confirmed by other sources. Staffers at Media Matters “knew they could dump stuff to Ben Smith, they knew they could dump it at Plum Line [Greg Sargent’s Washington Post blog], so that’s where they sent it.”
As described by Sharyl Attkisson, the impact of Media Matters is of concern to everyone 37)

“The problem is, too many news organizations and even journalism groups such as Poynter use Media Matters and their affiliates as if they are legitimate news sources. They are either unforgivably ignorant of Media Matters’ slants — or choose to keep readers in the dark because they agree with the slant.
One major interest Media Matters and its affiliates have served over the years is that of the pharmaceutical industry. They often smear scientists and journalists who report on prescription drug and vaccine safety issues, falsely labeling them as ‘anti-vaccine.’ Of course, that’s like saying that because I broke news about problems with Firestone tires, I am ‘anti-tire,’ or because I have exposed fraud within charities, I am ‘anti-charity.’ Silly.”

COVID-19 and Vaccines Are a Pathway to Billionairehood

Forbes compiled a list of 10 health care billionaires who have profited since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic. Topping the list was Stéphane Bancel, CEO of Moderna, whose vaccine candidate trial results were published by NEJM.38 According to Forbes: (39)
“When the WHO declared a pandemic, Bancel’s estimated net worth was some $720 million. Since then, Moderna’s stock has rallied more than 103%, lifting his fortune to an estimated $1.5 billion. A French citizen, Bancel first joined the billionaire ranks on April 2, when Moderna’s stock rose on the news that the firm was planning to begin phase two trials of its vaccine.”

Bancel is far from the only person who has become a “biotech billionaire” thanks to the lucrative development of COVID-19 vaccines, treatments and diagnostic tools solicited by governments and funded by taxpayers. Others include: (40)
1. Gustavo Denegri — With a net worth of $4.5 billion, Denegri has a 45% stake in the Italian biotech company DiaSorin.
2. Seo Jung-Jin — With a net worth of $8.4 billion, Jung-Jin co-founded Celltrion, a biopharma company in Seoul.
3. Alain Mérieux — With a net worth of $7.6 billion, Mérieux’s grandfather founded BioMérieux, a French multinational biotech company.
4. Maja Oeri — With a net worth of $3.2 billion, Oeri is a descendent of Fritz Hoffmann-La Roche, the founder of pharmaceutical giant Roche and owns about 5% of Roche’s shares.
5. Leonard Schleifer — With a net worth of $2.2 billion, Schleifer’s wealth is attributed to Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, which he co-founded.
6. George Yancopoulos — With a net worth of $1.2 billion, Yancopoulos is Regeneron’s chief scientific officer.
7. and 8. Thomas and Andreas Struengmann — With a net worth of $6.9 billion, the Struengmann twins sold their generic drug company Hexal to Novartis in 2005 and have other biotech investments.
9. Li Xiting — With a net worth of $12.6 billion, Xiting cofounded Mindray Medical International, China’s largest medical equipment producer.

Pandemic Profiteering Has Increased the Wealth Gap
The U.S. has been noteworthy for its extreme wealth and income inequality, and the richest have become even richer from pandemic profiteering, according to the Institute for Policy Studies: (41)
“Between January 1, 2020 and April 10, 2020, 34 of the nation’s wealthiest 170 billionaires saw their wealth increase by tens of millions of dollars. Eight have seen their net worth surge by over $1 billion.

As of April 15, Jeff Bezos’s [Amazon’s founder] fortune had increased by an estimated $25 billion since January 1, 2020. This unprecedented wealth surge is larger than the Gross Domestic Product of Honduras, $23.9 billion in 2018.”

The wealth of the world’s top five billionaires — Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett and Larry Ellison — increased twice as much as the federal government paid in stimulus checks to more than 150 million Americans. (42)

And as mentioned earlier, and noted by Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the NVIC, (43) Moderna’s stock price ballooned when it announced that its messenger RNA vaccine was ready for clinical trials, (44) and the company’s CEO became “a new billionaire overnight.”

Questions About the Moderna Vaccine
Authors of The New England Journal of Medicine article, cited earlier, wrote that the Moderna vaccine candidate, named mRNA-1273, “induced anti–SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified.” The study team did note, however, “Solicited adverse events that occurred in more than half the participants included fatigue, chills, headache, myalgia, and pain at the injection site.” (45)

But, according to Just The News, adverse effects were not always that minor, especially after a second injection: (46)

“Notably, every participant in the two larger-dose groups reported adverse reactions after their second injections. One study participant in the smallest-dose group, meanwhile, was removed due to having developed hives after the first round of injections.”
In addition to adverse effects, scientists are questioning how long immunity against the coronavirus, suggested by the presence of antibodies, will last.

According to Zero Hedge, immunity durability may be so short-lived, a COVID-19 vaccine “might need to be administered every year to offer a reliable level of protection.” (47) That will certainly be a windfall for the biotech billionaires. Zero Hedge writes: (48)

“[A] study produced by researchers at King’s College London is showing recovered patients’ antibodies declined significantly within months of infection, raising the critical question of whether a vaccine could ever provide lasting protection.

Moderna’s vaccine candidate has shown the capacity to produce antibodies in test subjects, but it’s still unclear exactly how much protection this might provide.
University of Nottingham Emeritus Professor in Immunology Herb Sewell, who consulted on the study, said it appeared to show that antibodies to the virus disappeared more quickly than antibodies for MERS and other coronaviruses …

Several high profile studies have raised doubts about whether these antibodies are permanent, or effective, or not.”
Finally, the adverse effects of vaccines in general are so well known, even Bill Gates — who is arguably the world’s most passionate vaccine advocate — admits that as many as 700,000 could become victims of adverse reactions to the COVID-19 vaccine. According to the German website Ken FM, in an interview with CNBC Gates said: (49)

“… if we have … one in ten thousand side effects … that’s, you know, way more — 700,000 … people who will suffer from that. So, really understanding the safety at gigantic scale across all age ranges — you know — pregnant, male, female, undernourished and existing comorbidity, it’s very, very hard …
… that actual decision of‚ OK, let’s go and give this vaccine to the entire world, governments will have to be involved because there will be some risk and indemnification needed before that can be decided on.”

Since that interview, several bloggers and media watchers have twisted Gates’ words as deaths, which has triggered another media “fact-checker,” APF Fact Check, (50) to call them out for it. So, if you do share this information, please note it’s side effects — which can include deaths, but also anything from a light fever to a very serious, but not life-threatening event — that Gates specifically mentioned.

The Empire of Billionaires Is a Threat to Public Safety
In summary, as biotech billionaires rush in to profit from the COVID-19 pandemic, your privacy rights are being violated through tracking and contact tracing, and your right to refuse a vaccine may be in jeopardy if it is deemed for the public good. At the same time the very media that should be promoting your right to free speech and to question government’s decisions for your body is advocating for having those rights taken away.

Through the pursuit of an artificial vaccine, natural immunity to viruses like COVID-19 will not occur and future pandemics are assured. But that means mass vaccination will have to be repeated over and over again, which is good news for the pandemic profiteers. But is it good for you?

-----------------------------------------------------

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https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c...20the%20seller.

Currency Option: Definition, Types, Features and When to Exercise
By James Chen

https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/PQ...026c00af8.jpeg

Updated June 05, 2022

Reviewed by
Michael J Boyle

Fact checked by
Timothy Li

What Is a Currency Option?
A currency option (also known as a Forex option) is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain currency at a specified exchange rate on or before a specified date. For this right, a premium is paid to the seller.

Currency options are one of the most common ways for corporations, individuals or financial institutions to hedge against adverse movements in exchange rates.
Key Takeaways

1. Currency options give investors the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a particular currency at a pre-specific exchange rate before the option expires.
2. Currency options allow traders to hedge currency risk or to speculate on currency moves.
3. Currency options come in two main varieties, so-called vanilla options and over-the-counter SPOT options.

Currency Option
The Basics of Currency Options
Investors can hedge against foreign currency risk by purchasing a currency put or call. Currency options are derivatives based on underlying currency pairs. Trading currency options involves a wide variety of strategies available for use in Forex markets. The strategy a trader may employ depends largely on the kind of option they choose and the broker or platform through which it is offered. The characteristics of options in decentralized Forex markets vary much more widely than options in the more centralized exchanges of stock and futures markets.

Traders like to use currency options trading for several reasons. They have a limit to their downside risk and may lose only the premium they paid to buy the options, but they have unlimited upside potential. Some traders will use FX options trading to hedge open positions they may hold in the Forex cash market. As opposed to a futures market, the cash market, also called the physical and spot market, has the immediate settlement of transactions involving commodities and securities. Traders also like Forex options trading because it gives them a chance to trade and profit on the prediction of the market's direction based on economic, political, or other news.

However, the premium charged on currency options trading contracts can be quite high. The premium depends on the strike price and expiration date. Also, once you buy an option contract, they cannot be re-traded or sold. Forex options trading is complex and has many moving parts making it difficult to determine their value. Risk include interest rate differentials (IRD), market volatility, the time horizon for expiration, and the current price of the currency pair.

Vanilla Options Basics
There are two main types of options, calls and puts.

1. Call options provide the holder the right (but not the obligation) to purchase an underlying asset at a specified price (the strike price), for a certain period of time. If the stock fails to meet the strike price before the expiration date, the option expires and becomes worthless. Investors buy calls when they think the share price of the underlying security will rise or sell a call if they think it will fall. Selling an option is also referred to as ''writing'' an option.
2. Put options give the holder the right to sell an underlying asset at a specified price (the strike price). The seller (or writer) of the put option is obligated to buy the stock at the strike price. Put options can be exercised at any time before the option expires. Investors buy puts if they think the share price of the underlying stock will fall, or sell one if they think it will rise. Put buyers - those who hold a "long" - put are either speculative buyers looking for leverage or "insurance" buyers who want to protect their long positions in a stock for the period of time covered by the option. Put sellers hold a "short" expecting the market to move upward (or at least stay stable) A worst-case scenario for a put seller is a downward market turn. The maximum profit is limited to the put premium received and is achieved when the price of the underlying is at or above the option's strike price at expiration. The maximum loss is unlimited for an uncovered put writer.

The trade will still involve being long one currency and short another currency pair. In essence, the buyer will state how much they would like to buy, the price they want to buy at, and the date for expiration. A seller will then respond with a quoted premium for the trade. Traditional options may have American or European style expiration. Both the put and call options give traders a right, but there is no obligation. If the current exchange rate puts the options out of the money (OTM), then they will expire worthlessly.

SPOT Options
An exotic option used to trade currencies include single payment options trading (SPOT) contracts. Spot options have a higher premium cost compared to traditional options, but they are easier to set and execute. A currency trader buys a SPOT option by inputting a desired scenario (e.g. "I think EUR/USD will have an exchange rate above 1.5205 15 days from now") and is quoted a premium. If the buyer purchases this option, the SPOT will automatically pay out if the scenario occurs. Essentially, the option is automatically converted to cash.

The SPOT is a financial product that has a more flexible contract structure than the traditional options. This strategy is an all-or-nothing type of trade, and they are also known as binary or digital options. The buyer will offer a scenario, such as EUR/USD will break 1.3000 in 12 days. They will receive premium quotes representing a payout based on the probability of the event taking place. If this event takes place, the buyer gets a profit. If the situation does not occur, the buyer will lose the premium they paid. SPOT contracts require a higher premium than traditional options contracts do. Also, SPOT contracts may be written to pay out if they reach a specific point, several specific points, or if it does not reach a particular point at all. Of course, premium requirements will be higher with specialized options structures.

Additional types of exotic options may attach the payoff to more than the value of the underlying instrument at maturity, including but not limited to characteristics such as at its value on specific moments in time such as an Asian option, a barrier option, a binary option, a digital option, or a look back option.

Example of a Currency Option
Let's say an investor is bullish on the euro and believes it will increase against the U.S. dollar. The investor purchases a currency call option on the euro with a strike price of $115, since currency prices are quoted as 100 times the exchange rate. When the investor purchases the contract, the spot rate of the euro is equivalent to $110. Assume the euro's spot price at the expiration date is $118. Consequently, the currency option is said to have expired in the money. Therefore, the investor's profit is $300, or (100 * ($118 - $115)), less the premium paid for the currency call option.

Hello everyone,
Its my third day trading with Ben, I'm still not confident and wont be until I make 100 trades with no loss. In the mean while I'm very impressed with the results.
Thank you for the time you taken,
Cheers

What about the Dollar Milkshake Theory and Klondike Gold

 
The Dollar Milkshake Theory holds that when times become financially difficult globally, like now, it plays in the dollar’s favor. And the proponents of that theory believe there is no reason at all to give up on the dollar. In fact, they think that times like this when the dollar is a bit weaker, you should be taking a stronger view of the dollar. For example, a recent guest on this show who is a proponent of the Dollar Milkshake Theory is Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals.

The Dollar Milkshake Theory is in fact more than a theory. It is a proven dynamic that we have witnessed in times of global financial stress such as the 2008 crisis, and more recently with the supply side problems related to Covid and the Ukrainian war. With rising interest rates, foreign borrowers of dollars had to liquidate their assets and buy dollars to pay their debt obligations which caused the dollar to rise, hence the term Dollar Milkshake Theory. During times of trouble the U.S. sucks its NATO partners dry as money flows back into the U.S. at the expense of trading partners in the U.S. empire.

But what happens if interest rates continue to rise and/or if adversarial countries decided that they have had enough of the weaponization of the dollar? What happens to the fate of the dollar if those countries have orchestrated a competing method of trading that says, “we no longer need dollars?” That kind of tectonic shift in the global financial architecture is in fact taking shape right now. John Rubino opines on that and other reasons why he thinks the days of dollar hegemony are numbered.

Peter Tallman, the President & CEO of Klondike Gold, has worked hard to outline the first 500,000+ gold resource ounces from the hard rock source from where 20 million ounces of gold were mined in the great placer gold rush of the late 1800’s. Peter explains why, geologically, there is reason to anticipate that 40-to-60 million more ounces gold remain on Klondike’s massive project in the Yukon located just minutes from downtown Dawson City in the Yukon.
 
Listen Now!
Jay Taylor Media Website

Jay Taylor Media You Tube

 
 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...m_campaign=RSS

Forecasting the Future

Blog/AI Computers

Posted Jan 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Spread the love

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ecasting-1.jpg

QUESTION: So if I read you right, you never anticipated that your computer would also forecast war and geopolitical events. ChatGPT seems to be able to find things and answer questions. But it cannot forecast the future by itself. So what did you do that is even more impressive than ChatGPT?
DW

ANSWER: Being a programmer since my teens, was the key. Being a trader, I had experience in both fields, which enabled me to TEACH my system how to analyze. So Socrates is not going out to the web and collecting what everyone has to say. It is analyzing the data all on its own.

Because I was also a history buff, I saw how civilization rose and fell. There was obviously a cycle to absolutely everything. Since even taking energy, we use to just burn wood, then oils, then whale oil, and then oil. There is a cycle to innovation. Not personally knowing if that will change to something else, I had to construct my system with my experience and then allow it to discover entirely on its own.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ne-27-1998.jpg

I have explained at conferences that we had a client, the Universal Bank of Lebanon, who found a ledger recording the daily prices of their currency back decades. They asked if we could create a model. The data was input and the system forecast-ed that their country would go into chaos in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. They calmly asked – What currency would be best? They saw themselves the crisis coming and in 8 days the civil war began. The same took place with a Sausi client who was a big shipper. He wanted to know what gold was going to do for Iran was going to start attacking shipping in the Gulf the next day. I asked: Are you telling me a war will start tomorrow? Oh yes, he replied. So by 1998, it was clear that the computer was capable of projecting wars. That is when I stood up in our London WEC in June 1998 and warned that Russia was about to collapse in 30 days. That became the Long-Term Capital Management collapse with the Russian bond market.

So ChatGPT is cool and it will dazzle everyone. I wrote such a program during the early ’80s to teach my computer how to use natural language to communicate. I used my children as the input. The program I wrote was designed to have a conversation. It would retain a database of who you were so if it asked if you had a dog and you said yes, it would ask you its name and remember that. So the next time you came back it would ask you how is your dog. It had so impressed my daughter should bring all her friends over. I was working with Dragon Systems back then when it was hardware. So the computer would talk verbally to them and they thought it was alive.

We will release a portal where you can ask Socrates questions and it will respond. But this is focused on the economy, not the name of Lady Gaga’s dog. Socrates is totally different from ChatGPT.


Categories: AI Computers

« Understand How We Think

Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release

Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Usual Effect Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;

Next Release Feb 24, 2023

FF Notes Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. CPI is released about 10 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;

Why Traders Care It's the Federal Reserve's primary inflation measure. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

5 Minute Chart - Dow Jones 30 Stock Index

Stock Equities opens for trading starting in Frankfurt Germany.

Between the hours of 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time and 6:00 AM Eastern Standard Time there are unique trading patterns that repeat every trading day from Monday to Friday.

Understanding these patterns and why they happen is one of the very special trade plans that Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation teaches to it's Forex students.

This will help you make extremely profitable Forex trades each week in Forex trading.

Thickpipe has done incredibly well trading his $50,000.00 US dollars Demo account at Friedberg Direct since it was opened on January 23, 2023.

European stock market hours

Country Stock Exchange EST

Europe Euronext 4 am to 12:30 pm

United Kingdom London Stock Exchange 3 am to 11:30 am

Germany Börse Frankfurt Stock Exchange 2 am to 2 pm

Notes:
"THIS IS A DEMO ACCOUNT WHICH IS TRADED WITH VIRTUAL FUNDS. NO REAL MONEY IS USED IN TRADING THIS ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are used primarily for education purposes, testing of strategies, and familiarizing traders with market movement and the FX Trading Station. There are inherent risks associated with online trading that may arise due to downtime, currency fluctuation and other risks associated with currency speculation. Only risk capital should be used when trading a real account."


ACCOUNT SUMMARY


Beginning Balance $50,000.00

Ending Balance $53,423.57

Floating P/L $28.08

Equity $53,451.65

Necessary Margin $3,750.00

Usable Margin $49,701.65

Necessary Margin (Maintenance) $15,000.00

Usable Margin (Maintenance) $38,451.65

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...om-accelerates

The Race To The Bottom Accelerates
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Jan 27, 2023 - 07:20 AM

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

When competence, transparency and accountability are all punished, the Race to the Bottom accelerates.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=8hT226il

Race to the Bottom describes the process of competitive devaluation, where value is gutted to remain competitive with those who are grabbing market share by stripping out quality, value, durability, transparency, accountability and competence.

We see the global Race to the Bottom in everyday products: the quality of goods has plummeted as manufacturers compete to reduce costs to maintain high profit margins by stripping out the quality and durability of components. We see it in shrinkflation, where the cereal box contains less cereal while the price ratchets higher.

We see it when cereals that once contained no sugar are now sickly-sweet because the manufacturer is losing market share to less healthy sugar-bomb cereals.

We see it in healthcare where costs have been so ruthlessly stripped out to boost profits that it takes months to get an appointment and overworked caregivers no longer have the "luxury" of providing the care they were trained to provide. Routine procedures and hospital stays now carry price tags equal to four years college tuition or a modest house.

The Race to the Bottom isn't limited to goods and services. Consider the bedrock of the social order, civility. Civility in discourse is now rarer than sightings of UFOs / UAPs.

In politics, scoring cheap points while ignoring the nation's social decay and unsustainable bubble economy is another example of the Race to the Bottom. Is getting to the bottom of the Taylor Swift ticketing "fiasco" really the most pressing issue that politicians need to address? It would seem so.
In macro-economics, the Race to the Bottom is often used to describe currency devaluation: nations seek to devalue their currency to boost exports, ignoring the downside of devaluation, i.e. their citizenry's wealth is also devalued as the purchasing power of their currency is reduced to aid a relatively small cohort of exporters.

The decay of transparency, accountability and competence that manifests across a vast spectrum of public and private life is a profoundly systemic Race to the Bottom. Local governments and corporations alike seek to hide their malfeasance, greed and incompetence and evade accountability by any means available.

It's as if hiding incompetence and insider profiteering is now the most valuable form of competence. Real-world competence has decayed to the point that nobody even knows what competence is, as they've never experienced it. The same can be said of transparency and accountability: nobody's actually experienced actual transparency and consequences falling to those in positions of responsibility.

The "solution" of the incompetent is always the same: throw more money at the problem. But doubling or tripling the budget for housing the homeless or improving public transit never results in doubling or tripling the efficacy or efficiency of the failing systems. Instead, the money is squandered on insider profiteering: studies no one ever looks at, PR displays of "caring," spectacles of some new showcased 'solution" that doesn't actually work and was never intended to be anything more than a PR stunt, and so on.

In this Race to the Bottom, power flows from saying "no", not "yes." The list of "stakeholders" is endless, and every one can stall or cancel a project. Nobody's in charge except to make sure nothing gets done of any consequence.
In this Race to the Bottom, it's a major victory if each unit of homeless housing only costs $300,000 each rather than $600,000 each and a grand total of 42 units will be built--eventually, unless of course a NIMBY group or other "stakeholder" nixes the project via endless judicial filings.
No matter how much money is thrown at the system, the bus service continues its downhill slide.

When competence, transparency and accountability are all punished, the Race to the Bottom accelerates. The worst are advanced, and the race to strip value, quality and quantity out of products and services becomes a free-for-all strip mining that favors the ruthlessly greedy.

"Markets" are nothing but platforms to be manipulated and gamed to benefit the few at the expense of the many. In this Race to the Bottom, regulators are either toothless or asleep at the wheel or bought off. Everything is for sale, and auctioned off to the highest bidder.

From low earth orbit, the Race to the Bottom is accelerating on all fronts because we've lost the ability to solve problems due to the power of entrenched insiders and powerful interests who profit so immensely from keeping the corrupt, unsustainable systems of power glued together for just a bit longer so they can maximize their private gains.

That the system they've hollowed out to maximize their private gain might take them down when it collapses doesn't seem to occur to them. Their "faith" in the power of wealth is absolute, and so they think they'll be safe in their fortified compounds, super-yachts, private aircraft, etc.
But all these forms of power are contingent on the vast system they are busy hollowing out.

So go right ahead and join the race to the bottom in every nook and cranny of public and private life. All your gains will vanish with the system that's been fatally undermined by the pell-mell race to the bottom.

The Ibogaine-fueled fantasy is that we can individually pillage the system by stripping it of value, but magically escape the consequence of everyone stripping the value out to maximize their gains, i.e. systemic collapse.

Nice, until the Ibogaine wears off. That's not how reality works. Actions have consequences, and those consequences have their own consequences.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/wo...098/w26098.pdf



December 10, 2007

How Destructive is Keynesian Mercantilism?

By Wayne Jett

We who relate to the economic world through the classical model of theory sometimes fail to realize just how badly irrational Keynesian theoreticians have become. True, Keynesian's dominate academia and the media, so how can we be unaware of their views? Classical economic theory is so self-contained and reliable for analytical and forecasting purposes that Keynesian views are not beneficial, so they can be ignored.

Nevertheless, when Cambridge economist John Maynard Keynes in 1936 created a theoretical model to advance mercantilism, big government and its mercantilism allies in the financial world and academia grabbed the ball and ran with it. Keynesian analysis and rhetoric are now so dominant they require examination for grounding in where public policy is heading. The dollar’s value has fallen steeply since mid-2005 despite repeated assurances from the Fed and Treasury that U. S. policy favors a “strong dollar.” Thus, the question arises: are the Fed and Treasury prevaricating or failing?

For a clue to the answer, consider Keynesian commentary published in Taipei Times authored by respected professor of economics at the University of California (Berkeley), J. Bradford DeLong. His commentary begins with this title and sub-title: “IS THE DOLLAR LEADING US INTO A DEPRESSION? A fallen greenback could mean economic turmoil, or … economic crisis. Economists are having trouble predicting the outcome because investors are not behaving rationally.” Psst, professor, your slip in respect for free markets is showing.

Those Pesky, Irrational Investors
At the outset, professor DeLong would benefit by honoring, as all economists should, the first rule of poker players: when all others at the table are acting irrationally, re-check your hole card. The fault may lie not in our investors, but in our economists.

DeLong observes that the falling dollar is causing “profound global macro-economic distress,” putting the world economy at risk. He posits that, if investors expect the dollar’s fall to continue, they will flee the currency, causing interest rates to soar and recession to follow. On the other hand, he reasons, if investors think the dollar will fall no more or even rise, interest rates can remain low and economic growth relatively robust. DeLong says so far there are “no signs” other than market volatility that investors think the dollar will continue to fall, and opines that this may be “wishful thinking” because the “… still-large current account deficit guarantees that the dollar will continue to fall.” (Emphasis added.) He shakes his head that he and fellow economists cannot understand why “typical investor[s] … have not taken steps to protect themselves … against the very likely US dollar decline in our future.”

Funny thing, though. On May 1, 2007, Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in a speech enunciating the close relationship between open international trade and prosperity, said “the existence of a trade deficit or surplus, by itself, does not have any evident effect on the level of employment.” Bernanke emphasized that “… willingness to trade freely with the world is indeed an essential source of our prosperity.” These observations are at odds with DeLong’s view that the U. S. current account deficit guarantees the dollar’s continued fall and economic crisis. Current account deficits coexist with prosperity for long periods, portending calamity only in Keynesian theory.

The Problem Is Bad Policy
DeLong’s comments illustrate Keynesian's’ approach to economic crises produced by their own policy. He observes the crisis and ponders why private parties fail to protect themselves from inevitable collapse.

Why not step back and examine the doctrine that produces dollar devaluation and a potentially cataclysmic outcome, rather than summarily dooming the public to live (or die) with that outcome? A continuously deteriorating dollar is not an inevitable result of the U. S. current account deficit, any more than was the overly strong dollar produced by the Federal Reserve during 1997-2002.

Relative to gold, the dollar is presently worth less than one-third of its 1999 value. The dollar’s extreme swings in value are caused by Fed operations. The FOMC manipulates domestic interest rates to assist price-fixing of bank credit costs. Simultaneously, the Fed issues instructions to the New York Fed’s open market desk to inject or drain liquidity without a guideline for the dollar’s value except foreign exchange rates. In 1997-2002, the Fed was far too stingy with liquidity, and in 2005-2007, too generous. In both periods, the Fed set credit costs too high, favoring banks.

Forex rates are dependent both on the dollar’s value and on the results of foreign central bank practices with their own currencies. Each foreign bank attempts to maintain parity with the dollar so as to remain competitive in the U. S. market, following a falling dollar downhill and a rising dollar uphill. Thus, forex rates are chaotic, unhelpful measures of the dollar’s health.

The Dollar’s Fall Was (And Is) Planned
The concern for a sharp fall in the dollar is real, considering current Fed practices that continue to weaken the currency. However, foreign capital continues to flow into the U. S. for an entirely rational reason, even considering existing Fed policy. No other currency presently enjoys national security capable of defending it from foreign aggressors. In that circumstance, any alternative currency can be attractive relative to the dollar only until the U. S. is no longer able or willing to defend it. This does not excuse bad U. S. monetary policy. Under present circumstances, which may be fleeting, national security pre-eminence overcomes flawed economic policy.

Reasoning that the current account deficit makes a weak dollar inevitable suggests that the weak dollar is intended – not accidental. Why? Because devalued currency is prescribed by DeLong and other Keynesian's as the cure for current account deficits. Thus, a continuation of the dollar’s fall is “inevitable” only in the sense of inevitability the Fed will follow Keynesian advice. Economic calamity can result from debasement of the currency, but would be the fault of Keynesian's at the helm rather than deficit in the current account.

The Solution is Monetary Policy Reform
Having already diagnosed the ailments of DeLong’s analysis, we have at hand the best remedy for the weak dollar. The twin scourges of severe credit strains and weak dollar can be relieved by dual responses. Credit strains are curable by floating the overnight funds rate to allow a normal yield curve, thereby enabling credit to flow to economic growth as determined by the market. Robust health can be restored to the dollar, eliminating inflation, if the Fed manages liquidity towards a stated gold price value for the dollar. This reformed U. S. monetary policy would delight every foreign user of dollars, including producers of all goods and commodities, as well as every investor in U. S. equities and bonds.

With such a positive outcome, we could stop worrying about the rationality of investors and economists, not to mention the looming economic turmoil and crisis Keynesian's now foresee. ~

Wayne Jett is managing principal and chief economist of Classical Capital LLC, a registered investment advisory firm in Pasadena, CA. He can be reached at [email protected].

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ce...ops+to+zero%29


Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Future of Surveillance And Control


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BY TYLER DURDEN

SUNDAY, SEP 26, 2021 - 03:00 PM

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

One of the most potentially far-reaching trends in the financial landscape right now is the imminent roll-out of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and the parallel attacks which central bankers are waging on private digital currencies and tokens as they tee up the launch of their CBDCs.

First some clarifications. While the majority of central bank-issued currencies (fiat currencies) in existence around the world are already in digital form, a fiat currency held in digital form is not the same as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).


What is a CBDC?

A CBDC generally refers to electronic or virtual central bank (fiat) money that is created in the form of digital tokens or account balances which are digital claims on the central bank. CBDCs will be issued by central banks and will be legal tender.

Many CBDCs that are being researched and developed employ Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), with the recording of transactions on a blockchain.

However, unlike private cryptocurrencies which use a permissionless and open design, CBDCs that use DLT will use permissioned variants (deciding who has access to the network and who can view and update records in the ledger). See here for a discussion of permissionless vs permissioned blockchains.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=q3iyAX9I

CBDCs - The antithesis to decentralized private cryptocurrencies and tokens Critically, as the name suggests, CBDCs will be centralized and governed by the issuing authority (i.e. a central bank). So, in their design and structure, CBDCs can be viewed as the very antithesis to decentralized private cryptocurrencies and tokens.

Central banks have already working on two types of CBDCs, ‘wholesale’ digital tokens that would have access restricted to banks and financial entities to be used for activities like inter bank payments and wholesale market transactions, and ‘general purpose’ (retail) CBDC for the general public to be used in retail transactions.

It is this ‘general purpose’ CBDC which most people are referring to when they discuss central bank digital currencies, and it is these ‘general purpose’ CBDCs that will be most important to watch when central banks and governments begin to attempt their roll-outs to distribute CBDCs to billions of people across the world either through account-based CBDCs or ‘digital cash’ tokens.

As you can guess, account-based CBDCs will be tied to user identities and Digital IDs, and straight off the bat they allow for total surveillance by the State and torpedo any chance of anonymity. For this reason, they are already a favorite among central banks. Given that CBDCs will be centralized ledgers and can be programmable, the ‘digital cash’ token option is not much better in terms of privacy and freedom.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=EGZe6JDT

The Bank for International Settlements - The Dark Tower of Basel

Many central banks will probably opt for a hybrid model of both account-based and token-based digital cash. As an example, Canada, the one-time liberal democracy, perhaps illustrates the account-based vs token-based choices best, where Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada, in its design documentation for CBDCs shows that at the end of the day, it's about surveillance and control, saying that:
“anonymous token-based options would be allowable for smaller payments, while account-based access would be required for larger purchases.”

Central banks are also experimenting with various models for the distribution of CBDCs to the masses, including using private commercial banks and payment providers who will intermediate on the central banks’ behalf, and also direct distribution of payments by a central bank to a population. Either way, you can see that CBDCs greatly facilitate the statists to advance their Orwellian plans for Universal Basic Income (UBI) and dependency on the state.

Accelerating rollout

CBDCs are not just a buzzword or a hazy innovation that may appear sometime in the distant future. They are actively being developed now and in a widespread fashion.

In January 2020, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued the results of a survey on CBDCs that it had conducted in the second half of 2019, and to which 66 central banks had responded. Strikingly, 10% of central bank respondents (which represented a fifth of the world’s population) said that they were likely to issue a ‘general purpose’ CBDC (for the general public) in the near future (within the next 3 years). Another 20% of central bank respondents said they would likely issue a ‘general purpose’ CBDC in the medium term (within 6 years).

In August 2020, the BIS published a comprehensive working paper on CBDCs titled “Rise of the central bank digital currencies: drivers, approaches and technologies” one part of which analyzed the BIS database of central banker speeches and found that between December 2013 and May 2020, there had been 138 central banker speeches mentioning CBDCs, with a dramatic increase in CBDC related speeches since 2016, a timeframe which coincided with central banks launching research projects on CBDCs. The same BIS report also highlighted that, (totally coincidentally) the Covid-19 'pandemic' "accelerated work on CBDCs in some jurisdictions."

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=i4aA3gaM

BIS slide on CBDC global project status - August 2021. Source.

Fast forward to right now, and on the website of the globalist Atlantic Council (headquartered in Washington D.C.), there is an interesting Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker which lists all the countries that have either launched or piloted a CBDC or are developing or researching a CBDC.

Here we find that 5 central banks have already launched a CBDC, 14 have a CBDC in the pilot, 16 have a CBDC in development, and another 32 central banks are at the research stage with their CBDC. That makes 67 central banks (countries in total). While the 5 currency areas that have already launched a CBDC are all islands in the Caribbean, the central banks at the pilot stage include heavyweights such as China, South Korea, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden.

Those at the development stage include the central banks of Canada, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, France, and Nigeria. Those at the research stage include the central banks of the US, UK, Australia, Norway, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia.

So as you can see, this is not some theoretical issue. Centrally controlled digital currencies are coming down the pipe in a big way, and some will be appearing, if not imminently, then very soon. And given the ease with which governments have imposed lockdowns and restrictions on their compliant populations during 2020 and 2021, it is not hard to envisage that these same pliable masses will be easily influenced to embrace CBDCs as being in their 'best interests.

BIS Switzerland - The Usual Suspect

In fact, one-third of the entire BIS annual report 2021 is focused on CBDCs in a section titled “CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system”.
Here, the BIS predictably trumpets the benefits of introducing central bank-issued centralized digital currencies while at the same time attempting to undermine private cryptocurrencies. The BIS wording reveals the fact that central banks are in a panic over the competitive threat of private cryptos and have accelerated the development of CBDCs partially due to this fear, with the BIS stating that:

“Central bank interest in CBDCs comes at a critical time. Several recent developments have placed a number of potential innovations involving digital currencies high on the agenda.

The first of these is the growing attention received by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies; the second is the debate on stablecoins, and the third is the entry of large technology firms (big techs) into payment services and financial services more generally.”

The BIS then attempts to dismiss each of these 3 threats:

Cryptocurrencies, claims the BIS “are speculative assets rather than money, and in many cases are used to facilitate money laundering, ransomware attacks, and other financial crimes”.

Bitcoin comes in for some special mention with the BIS saying that “Bitcoin, in particular, has few redeeming public interest attributes when also considering its wasteful energy footprint’.

Stable coins, says the BIS “attempt to import credibility by being backed by real currencies” that are “ultimately only an appendage to the conventional monetary system and not a game-changer.”

The entry of large tech firms that dominate social networks, search, messaging, and e-commerce into the realm of financial services and payments provision infrastructure seems to especially bother the BIS, and it spins its criticism into the argument that although these platforms have large network effects, this creates “further concentration” in the market for payments.

The irony is not lost on the fact that it’s the BIS, as the central bank of central banks and one of the most concentrated power centers in the world, that is criticizing others’ “concentration” of power.

Throughout this CBDC pitch, the BIS report refers at numerous points that digital currencies should be “in the public interest”, which really means that digital currencies should be controlled by the BIS and its central bank members, as well as perpetuate their centralized monetary power structure.

The BIS even has the gall to claim that CBDCs should respect privacy rights, when in fact the whole architecture, rationale, and design of central bank digital currencies will allow central banks and national authorities to invade totally on privacy rights.

But sometimes the BIS lets its guard down and reveals its authoritarian plans for CBDCs. A case in point is a recent interview with Agustín Carstens general manager of the BIS, where he chillingly said:

"We don’t know who’s using a $100 bill today and we don’t know who’s using a 1,000 peso bill today.

The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.”

See the video segment below for Carstens' remarks:


Singing from the Same Song Sheet

With the BIS in Basel Switzerland as the conductor and orchestrator, it's not surprising that central bank governors and country heads are now singing from the same song sheet, the song being ‘private digital currencies bad, central bank digital currencies good’.

Earlier this month (September 2021) at a banking conference in Stockholm, the governor of Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank), Stefan Ingves, commented that ‘private money usually collapses sooner or later, while conveniently failing to mention the hundreds of government and central bank-issued paper currencies that have collapsed throughout history due to overprinting, depreciation and hyperinflation. Nor did Ingves mention Voltaire’s famous quote that “Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero”.

Ingves, whose country is one of the leaders in promoting a cashless society, also took a derogatory swipe at Bitcoin saying “sure, you can get rich by trading in bitcoin, but it’s comparable to trading in stamps.” All the while the Riksbank is pushing ahead with its central bank digital currency, called the e-krona, a CBDC which uses distributed ledger technology, and which the Swedish central bank is currently testing in conjunction with Handelsbanken, one of Sweden’s largest retail banks.

In the same week as Ingves’s comments in Sweden, the governor of Mexico’s central bank, Alejandro Diaz de Leon, was also taking a shot at private cryptocurrencies and for good measure, he also put the boot into precious metals.

Diaz de Leon said that Bitcoin is more like a method of barter than ‘evolved’ fiat money, and continued “in our times, money has evolved to be fiat money issued by central banks. Bitcoin is more like a dimension of precious metals than daily legal tender.”

That comment, which attacks two birds with one stone (crypto and precious metals), will definitely please his central bank governor colleagues at the BIS, and may even earn Diaz de Leon a nomination as the next BIS general manager, to succeed his fellow countryman Agustín Carstens.

Speaking of the BIS, Benoit Coeure, head of the BIS Innovation Hub, also gave a WEF style speech about CBDCs in early September, acknowledging the convenient catalyst of the covid 'pandemic', and the accelerated development of CBDCs by central banks:

"the world is not returning to the old normal. Payments are a case in point. The pandemic has accelerated a longer-running move to digital .... the world's central banks are stepping up efforts to prepare the ground for digital cash – central bank digital currency (CBDC):

"A CBDC's goal is ultimately to preserve the best elements of our current systems while still allowing a safe space for tomorrow's innovation. To do so, central banks have to act while the current system is still in place – and to act now."

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also recently joined in the attack on private digital currencies, while simultaneously promoting Turkey’s CBDC. At an event on 18 September, the Turkish president stated that:

“We have absolutely no intention of embracing cryptocurrencies”

“on the contrary, we have a separate war, a separate fight against them. We would never lend support to [cryptocurrencies]. Because we will move forward with our own currency that has its own identity.”


China: Digital Yuan - An Ominous Blueprint

A huge red flag over CBDCs and user privacy is that these central bank digital currencies are programmable, as details on China’s ‘Digital Yuan’ already show.

For example, the Digital Yuan can be programmed to be activated on a certain date, programmed to expire on a certain date, programmed to be only valid for certain purchases, and ominously, programmed to be only available to citizens who meet certain pre-conditions.

As a potential blueprint for other CBDCs, people across the world need to sit up and take notice, because the issuing authorities of these CBDCs coming down the pipe can therefore decide who gets access to CBDCs, what they can transact using those currencies, and how long the purchasing power remains valid.

Central Banks can thus influence and control the behavior of the recipients of this centralized digital cash, as well as exclude those who they want to penalize or who don’t comply with the State's rules or parameters.

And right on cue as this article was just published, Chinese authorities have now announced (on 24 September) a total ban on all cryptocurrency transactions. Except, of course, it's the upcoming authoritarian Digital Yuan.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=fVZszfLv

The future according to WEF's Klaus Schwab and his Elite private banker handlers

Conclusion - Slavery or Monetary Freedom

Although central banks will claim that they are introducing CBDCs for reasons such as improving payments efficiency, boosting financial inclusion for the unbanked, and tackling illicit transactions, their real motivations, as always, are for surveillance and control.

Surveillance of a population via complete visibility into financial transaction flow and user identities, and centralized control of the money supply within a cashless financial system. Think China’s social credit system on a global dystopian scale, where vax passes evolve into digital IDs and digital IDs link to CBDC issuance and use. In fact, the entire coercion around implementing vaccine passports and digital IDs looks to be a pre-planned stepping stone for the roll-out of central bank digital currencies and global social credit systems.

The timing of the accelerated emergence of CBDCs may partially be an attempt by central banks to outflank the numerous private cryptocurrencies, tokens, and decentralized finance ecosystems that have emerged and that are a threat to the power of the centralized banking system at whose apex sits the BIS.

But it would be naïve to think that central banks that knew in advance about the initiation of a‘WEF’ global technocratic and corpocratic takeover that would begin in 2020, are not now orchestrating the rollout of CBDCs as part of a long-term global agenda, that agenda being the global socialist Agenda 2030, and a future in which, according to the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF)

“You’ll own nothing. And you’ll be happy”.

BIS and central bank attacks against private cryptocurrencies are to be expected. After all, the same central banks and the BIS have waged a very long war against physical gold and silver. And precious metals have been money since 4000 B.C.

With the launch of CBDCs by central banks and their elitist private banking controllers, that war looks set to intensify. So, do you want a future of monetary freedom or a future of perpetual slavery to central banker CBDCs?

If you want monetary freedom, then ownership of physical precious metals and private and anonymous digital currencies are now some of the only ways to counter and protect against the ominous CBDC plans which the BIS and its central bank members are intent with imminently rolling out.

* * *

This article originally appeared on the BullionStar.com website under the same title "Central Bank Digital Currencies – A Future of Surveillance and Control

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...w/#more-267297


Via International Man

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International Man: What is the idea behind the so-called “Great Reset?”

Nick Giambruno: We’ve seen countless examples of the self-identified elite in the West using that term recently.
But let me first ask, who put these people in charge? Who anointed them the leaders of the world?
They’re not only talking about resetting the financial system but dramatically changing the nature of life.
I think something sinister is going on, and they’re not even trying to hide it anymore. It’s all in the open now.
So, let me try to summarize something incredibly complex.

These people recognize the current international monetary system based on the US dollar is on its way out. Even Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, acknowledges that the US dollar’s supremacy is fading.

Although they would prefer to continue milking the current system, they realize it’s failing and the need to bridge the gap to a new system that they hope to control.

Nobody knows what the next international monetary system will look like—not even the elites. However, they know what they want it to look like.
They want a totalitarian control grid with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), movement licenses, mandatory medical procedures, and a social credit system, among other nasty things.
Simply put, the Great Reset agenda is a high-tech, communist, global panopticon.

In short, they want total control over you in all domains—new feudalism.
They’re emotionally manipulating people with fear and false narratives into accepting things they ordinarily wouldn’t—like their enslavement.
That’s what their Great Reset agenda is all about. It’s self-evidently anathema to personal freedom, human dignity, and self-determination.
Whether the self-proclaimed elites get all or some of those things is an open question.

The best scenario for mankind would be for most major governments to go bankrupt—which they are well on their way to—before they can implement the Great Reset agenda.

International Man: It seems changing the money so that governments can have more control over people is a big part of this plan. How do you see it?

Nick Giambruno: I see it like this.
Don’t let any government, whether it’s the US government, the Chinese government, or a global government entity like the IMF, tell you what money is.
Money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been brainwashed into believing.

It would be similar to transporting yourself back in time and asking the average person in the Soviet Union, “Where do shoes come from?”
They would say, “Well, the government makes the shoes. Where else could they come from? Who else could make the shoes?”

It’s the same mentality here regarding money today—except it’s much more widespread.
The truth is money doesn’t need to come from the government any more than shoes do.

People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times.

However, for over 2,500 years, gold has been mankind’s most enduring form of money.

Gold didn’t become money by accident or because some politicians decreed it. Instead, it became money because countless individuals throughout history and across many different civilizations subjectively came to the same conclusion: gold is money.


It resulted from a market process of people looking for the best way to store and exchange value.
So, why did they go to gold? What makes gold as attractive as money?
Here’s why.

Gold has a set of unique characteristics that make it suitable for money.



Gold is durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, scarce, and most important, it’s the “hardest” of all physical commodities. In other words, gold is “hard to produce” relative to existing stockpiles and the one physical commodity most resistant to inflation. That’s what gives gold its monetary properties.

Bitcoin shares many of gold’s monetary characteristics. Like gold, Bitcoin does not have counterparty risk, and nobody can arbitrarily inflate the supply.

Here’s the bottom line.
I would encourage people to be sovereign individuals and recognize what works best for them as a vehicle to store and exchange value, rather than thoughtlessly accepting whatever the government gives them as money.

International Man: What makes government money dangerous?

Nick Giambruno: Governments reap enormous power from their racket of printing fake money out of thin air and forcing their citizens to use it. Whether it’s Venezuela, Lebanon, Argentina, or the US, it’s the same scam. It allows governments to act like vampires and feast on their citizens’ savings.

Imagine if you had that kind of immense power?

You could create something with little to no effort and then force everyone else to accept and use it as money. You could create paper wealth out of thin air and cut your enemies off from the economy. You’d be very powerful.

That’s why all governments treasure their monopoly on money.

Remember, government money is political money. It’s a potent tool to steal from and control you.

Consider what happened to the truckers in Canada in early 2022. With no due process or judicial review, the Canadian government seized their bank accounts at the flip of a switch. The government granted itself the power and made it a simple administrative task.

We will see many more of these kinds of actions—and more severe ones—soon.

International Man: What can the average person do about this?

Nick Giambruno: The incident with the truckers in Canada and other recent events have been stark illustrations of the dangers of government money.
On the other hand, they’ve been terrific advertisements for real money.

I’ve studied money, monetary policy, and monetary history. I’ve been to Zimbabwe, Argentina, Lebanon, and other countries that have experienced hyperinflation.
In my view, the most important attribute of money is that it is hard to produce—its “hardness.” In other words, something that is resistant to inflation.

Think of money as a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

Would you want to put that into something that somebody else can create with no effort or cost?
Of course, you wouldn’t.

It would be like storing your life savings in Chuck E. Cheese arcade tokens or airline frequent flyer miles. Putting your savings into government currencies isn’t that much different.
What you want to do is to put your money into something that someone else cannot make easily.

Here’s the bottom line.
The vast majority of humanity does not understand what makes good money. Instead, they’ve been hypnotized into believing something inferior—the scraps of paper or digital entries that governments can create with no effort—is good money.

It’s a sad state of affairs and one of the biggest swindles in human history.

To enact their Great Reset agenda, the elites count on the average person not understanding the issues around money. They are relying on people blindly swallowing their poisonous CBDCs.

The most effective thing the average person can do to fight against this agenda is not to store their life force in government currencies. That way, the government—and the elites behind them—cannot use inflation to siphon off your monetary energy to fund their nefarious plans.

The idea is to put a meaningful portion of your savings into hard assets, apolitical, neutral money that has no counterparty risk and is resistant to inflation.
I put physical gold coins in your possession, as well as Bitcoin, in that category. But only Bitcoin where you control the private keys and do not depend on the permission of a third party—like an exchange or custodian—to access your money.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/a...m_campaign=RSS

Blog/AI Computers

Posted Jun 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Klaus Schwab’s view of the future and Artificial Intelligence is seriously flawed. He argues that the fusing of the political, physical, digital, and biological worlds will have a transformative impact on every facet of human existence. He insists that this will range from the way we live our lives, the manner in which we will work, the reconfiguration of economic models, the products we sell, and I believe his self-delusion, the power to extend our lives indefinitely. Of course, his cohort, Yuval Noah Harari, dreams of converting society into programmed robots. Meanwhile, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla dreams of putting chips in every pill that confirms to a central database that you took his latest creation.
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Schwab’s Fourth Industrial Revolution is seriously flawed for he has no understanding of actual real AI programming. Yes, insofar as AI is concerned, I do not believe in the view that if you throw in mountains of data, somehow the computer will evolve and figure it all out and come up with a force or conclusion. They did that at IBM with Big Blue. They thought it would find the cure for cancer – it failed. There is something more that makes our brain function. It is NOT just a neural net and consciousness somehow emerges because of all the connections. Granted, they try to mimic the brain and look upon us as simply a biological lifeform without actually understanding there is something much deeper.

Perhaps the night you suddenly fell in love with your partner. You were out to dinner, and your unconscious mind actually recorded everything — the place, the food, the music, what they wore. You consciously are not actually noticing all these variables. But years later, you hear that song, taste that same food, or revisit the place. Suddenly, without even trying to remember, the event is relived. You can close your eyes and see the event as if it were a recorded movie. Our brain is actually recording everything without us even trying. Creating a neural net and dumping all this information in there does not recreate that ability.
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Sigmund Freud (1856- 1939) and Carl Gustav Jung (1875–1961) dived very deeply into the construct of the mind. Their view of our unconscious was the result of very deep self-analysis. Socrates is different. I created pathways and taught it how to analyze. I spend a lot of time self-analyzing how I would trade, and what I would look at as an international hedge fund manager. I had to understand how the mind actually worked both on the conscious and unconscious levels.

Because I knew I was not going to be a world globe trotter again, I got a dog. She has taught me about how the mind also works. She thinks. She has a strategy. She has the same range of emotions that we have from boredom to excitement. I can see her thinking. She clearly communicates through her eyes and body language. There is an innate ability to communicate with dogs that has evolved over the centuries, which is one of the primary reasons our canine-human love affair has gone on for centuries. There is a distinct dog-human interspecies understanding that is extraordinary, but it also is a glimpse into ourselves. She anticipates where I will go when I get up and will gently let me know when she is hungry. But to my astonishment, she will play ball, but then will try to make me go fetch. She would bang her bowl if it was out of the water, but then if she wanted me to stop working, she would bang the bowl because she knew that sound would cause me to come out of the office.
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There is a whole other aspect to not just our mind, but how even a dog thinks, which reveals to me that the failure in AI with machine learning is that it is one-dimensional. There is a far deeper level of activity beyond our conscious mind that they try to duplicate with neural nets. My dog has indeed reinforced my understanding of how to really construct AI, which is substantially different from the one-dimensional neural net.

My dog understands so many words that it is astonishing. I was talking with a friend and just mentioned the word “dog,” and she got up and immediately ran to the window to see what dog dared to enter her domain. If I say we are going shopping, she goes to the front door. If I say we are going to take a walk, she runs to the back door. She obviously understands far more language than I ever expected. A 2020 study by researchers at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary discovered that, while dogs may not pick up minute details in human speech, they can, in fact, comprehend their owners’ most basic words.

What she has taught me is that even a dog has a conscious and unconscious mind. She dreams as we go. It is really amazing when you pay attention. This is just far more involved than creating a one-dimensional neural net, throwing a bunch of data in, shaking (not stirring), and hoping for the best. Their theory that accelerating the ability to calculate and adding parameters to models was not really a game-changer. The models are faster, and playing a game of chess or Jeopardy, they can beat a human because they have the ability to test every possible outcome in a few minutes. But that is the problem. They can wow everyone with speed, but they CAN NOT create something new. That was the failure of IBM’s Big Blue.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ated-them..jpg

Creativity REQUIRED imagination, and expanding the nodes and speed does not lead to imagination. Without imagination, we cannot create a real game-changer. Thus, all the AI that Schwab cheers will lead the world into his Fourth Industrial Revolution is missing the critical ingredient, which does not exist in the conscious mind but is buried in the unconscious realm where we hide our talents, dreams, and our long lost memories. This is why Socrates has provided forecasting that is even original.

So I have taken a different approach. Socrates is NOT a one-dimensional neural net. Don’t worry. It will not suddenly come alive and decide to wipe out the inferior species known as humans. But the world Schwab envisions is not real. It only leads, not to the critical ability of creativity, which exists only in freedom, but to oppression and conformity precisely as the result of Marx’s experiment we call socialism/communism. Communism collapsed because it suppressed creativity. That also necessitates FREEDOM.

 

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