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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,181
  • May 1, 2007 10:54am May 1, 2007 10:54am
Hey Cesarnc are u still in Long with Target to reach 120?

I've caught some of those nice dips this morning and pocketed at 119.80.

I'm trying to see where price may head but not sure with fundamental analysis. Benanke is talking now but unfamilar with the impact it may have.

Quoting cesarnc
Uj just dying to take 119.80/120 out.
  • #4,182
  • May 1, 2007 10:59am May 1, 2007 10:59am
Quoting newjersey24
Hey Cesarnc are u still in Long with Target to reach 120?

I've caught some of those nice dips this morning and pocketed at 119.80.

I'm trying to see where price may head but not sure with fundamental analysis. Benanke is talking now but unfamilar with the impact it may have.
I TP most of the lots at 119.70-80 area. Running tiny positions now...

Uj is being too stalling with sharp intraday reversals. No point in keeping 1 target only... Better buy dips and dumped them upstairs.
  • #4,183
  • May 1, 2007 11:17am May 1, 2007 11:17am
Gotcha man.

Thats what we did.

We had

buy limits at 119.20, .30, .40., .50

with TP of 20 pips for each.

So we came out well. Right now im waiting for another dip to put shorter buys TP 10 pips.
  • #4,184
  • May 1, 2007 11:27am May 1, 2007 11:27am
Quoting smikester
Interestingly, we are approaching levels of resistance that go back to 1991 and 1998. The recent (January this year) peak of 241.50 was a resistance level back in those years. There followed a retracement to 221. And now we're testing it again. Sorry if someone has already made this observation.
smikester, I appreciate for your observation and looked out for us all.
My question is 221 is where we will possibilly test again, or not?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #4,185
  • May 1, 2007 11:31am May 1, 2007 11:31am
Quoting newjersey24
Gotcha man.

Thats what we did.

We had

buy limits at 119.20, .30, .40., .50

with TP of 20 pips for each.

So we came out well. Right now im waiting for another dip to put shorter buys TP 10 pips.
Wow
Gone to a better place
  • #4,186
  • May 1, 2007 11:34am May 1, 2007 11:34am
hello everybody
have been reading the tread from the start only just go the ok to post reply so will be doing that more now. everyboby keep up the good work as i am learning lots
  • #4,187
  • May 1, 2007 11:42am May 1, 2007 11:42am
Quoting trader8686
smikester, I appreciate for your observation and looked out for us all.
My question is 221 is where we will possibilly test again, or not?http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Dunno!
Gone to a better place
  • #4,188
  • May 1, 2007 11:43am May 1, 2007 11:43am
Quoting smikester
Wow

it really isnt much, trading on mini accounts. so its basically a dolloar a pip.

We have about 15k in the market.
mini account

When we get more comfortable will go standard. but far now all the ones with many trades and small lots adds up pretty nice.
  • #4,189
  • May 1, 2007 11:46am May 1, 2007 11:46am
Quoting newjersey24
pretty nice.
Style...
Gone to a better place
  • #4,190
  • May 1, 2007 2:18pm May 1, 2007 2:18pm
Have we finish recovery, yet? I think so, how about you all? 239.45 now.
  • #4,191
  • May 1, 2007 2:39pm May 1, 2007 2:39pm
I have been expecting this pair to challenge the 241.00 area before retreating. I think we may have another run at the top before it heads down. I have been in a carry trade with the GBP/JPY since 230.00. What do others think about this pair?

PT
Zone Breakout Method
  • #4,192
  • May 1, 2007 2:55pm May 1, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting PowerTrader
I have been expecting this pair to challenge the 241.00 area before retreating. I think we may have another run at the top before it heads down. I have been in a carry trade with the GBP/JPY since 230.00. What do others think about this pair?

PT
GBPUSD Bulls are licking their wounds now.... When they come back furious, GJ will soar.

To note that Cable has put new 8-days high today, which was interrupted by the profit taking after USD-positive ISM. Cable's also putting higher lows in the daily.

USDJPY has lots of woods to chop in the 119.80/120 area, so it's hard to tell when it's going to push through.... Maybe some other swings downwards first.

Dow Jones in a remarkable session today, holding above the expected resistance 13,120, favors carry trades.
  • #4,193
  • May 1, 2007 3:00pm May 1, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
GBPUSD Bulls are licking their wounds now.... When they come back furious, GJ will soar.

To note that Cable has put new 8-days high today, which was interrupted by the profit taking after USD-positive ISM. Cable's also putting higher lows in the daily.

USDJPY has lots of woods to chop in the 119.80/120 area, so it's hard to tell when it's going to push through.... Maybe some other swings downwards first.

Dow Jones in a remarkable session today, holding above the expected resistance 13,120, favors carry trades.
So Cesar, we are soon to finish this correction, I think, someone say to hit 236/237 again for this downtrend. Do you think that is possible?
  • #4,194
  • May 1, 2007 3:07pm May 1, 2007 3:07pm
Well, my analysis throws that USDJPY is maturing a bullish trend... but GBPUSD maybe is running out of gas...

Anyway GBPUSD not gonna reverse soon... so it would be enought to have a USDJPY bullish and a GBPUSD ranging to have a GBPJPY nice rally

iiivb
  • #4,195
  • May 1, 2007 3:11pm May 1, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting trader8686
So Cesar, we are soon to finish this correction, I think, someone say to hit 236/237 again for this downtrend. Do you think that is possible?
No strong downside in Cable before the next rate hike (0.25%), maybe not before another possible hike (0.25%) after that.

And unless a catastrophe takes place, UJ is going up. Gotta fight this huge USD-bearish sentiment, though. So it's going to be very lazy.
  • #4,196
  • May 1, 2007 3:13pm May 1, 2007 3:13pm
Quoting iiivb
Anyway GBPUSD not gonna reverse soon... so it would be enought to have a USDJPY bullish and a GBPUSD ranging to have a GBPJPY nice rally

iiivb
Exactly! It is likely to be a bumpy ride, but "higher lows / higher highs" is uptrend enough
  • #4,197
  • May 1, 2007 6:35pm May 1, 2007 6:35pm
hey cesar,

i guess with the good usd data, we will see jpy head thru 120, but will gpd drop down close to 1990, and will it really do anything for this pair, or will this pair still go to around 241??
  • #4,198
  • May 1, 2007 6:45pm May 1, 2007 6:45pm
I know this question was not addressed to me, but if I may tell you my insight:

All depends on the absolute variation of the price. If the USDJPY rallies 2 pips by any GBPUSD dip of 1 pip... we will see GBPJPY us 1 pip. This is a very simplified analysis and of course theoretical.

The best indicator of a probable carry trade uptrend is the risk appetite reflected on all stock markets, overall the Dow Jones. Carry trades are directly proportional to risk aversion.

iiivb

Quoting mtrmth
hey cesar,

i guess with the good usd data, we will see jpy head thru 120, but will gpd drop down close to 1990, and will it really do anything for this pair, or will this pair still go to around 241??
  • #4,199
  • May 1, 2007 7:01pm May 1, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting iiivb
I know this question was not addressed to me, but if I may tell you my insight:

All depends on the absolute variation of the price. If the USDJPY rallies 2 pips by any GBPUSD dip of 1 pip... we will see GBPJPY us 1 pip. This is a very simplified analysis and of course theoretical.

The best indicator of a probable carry trade uptrend is the risk appetite reflected on all stock markets, overall the Dow Jones. Carry trades are directly proportional to risk aversion.

iiivb
That plus a daily (so far & trustworthy) sovereign powerful and highly inclined upwards channel that will not allow Cable below 9950 (if such) for too long...

Today USD move was much more a USD short exit (profit taking from Cable and Euro at high levels) than dollar redemption. If recent history (days) repeat, USD will be dumped again shortly. USD-index printing lower lows and lower highs for a month.

IMO, 2.0 magnet will attract GU back up shortly. Buyers are just below current price or just running late

This dollar frenzy has to settle down so carry trades will takover... Until then, enjoy a nice bottom fishing.
  • #4,200
  • May 1, 2007 7:08pm May 1, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting cesarnc
That plus a daily (so far & trustworthy) sovereign powerful and highly inclined upwards channel that will not allow Cable below 9950 (if such) for too long...
This upwards channel (and the corrective less inclined downwards one)

Smells like a breakout coming up, huh?
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