The Swamp | Page 5319 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #106,361
  • Jan 25, 2023 10:29am Jan 25, 2023 10:29am
EG back below 8825 and 8822.8.. It made a double top .885x,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 5 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,362
  • Jan 25, 2023 10:30am Jan 25, 2023 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls are looking like they touched a hot stove.. A 50 pip drop. {image}
Sure seems like the news out of Canada is throwing the dollar into a fit....

Still, PA is bullish, the dollar is bearish, equities are bullish....

I have a stretch target on Fibre at 1.1018 for EOM.... But that would be really something if it got there...
  • #106,363
  • Edited 1:00pm Jan 25, 2023 12:05pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} +15 stops at b.e, will hold/short above 1.2385ish
closes looking more likely to hold long some more… will test some shorts up here

Edit: moved SL + 35

out +60
  • #106,364
  • Jan 25, 2023 12:53pm Jan 25, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Sure seems like the news out of Canada is throwing the dollar into a fit.... Still, PA is bullish, the dollar is bearish, equities are bullish.... I have a stretch target on Fibre at 1.1018 for EOM.... But that would be really something if it got there...
It took a while to get to 1.0805. Bulls closed a week above 1.0835. The month closes next week. Above 1.0835 is still bullish to me. Close this week below 1.0835. Even then, 1.070 is in the way. A January close below 1.07 reject is what bears need. Without that, 1.1186/slip is in my scope. I figured 1.0805.5 was coming since at 0.9596/slip. I was never sure about 1.1186. But its always been in the possibilities.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,365
  • Jan 25, 2023 1:18pm Jan 25, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} closes looking more likely to hold long some more… will test some shorts up here Edit: moved SL + 35 out +60
closing might have been premature…
  • #106,366
  • Jan 25, 2023 1:21pm Jan 25, 2023 1:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It took a while to get to 1.0805. Bulls closed a week above 1.0835. The month closes next week. Above 1.0835 is still bullish to me. Close this week below 1.0835. Even then, 1.070 is in the way. A January close below 1.07 reject is what bears need. Without that, 1.1186/slip is in my scope. I figured 1.0805.5 was coming since at 0.9596/slip. I was never sure about 1.1186. But its always been in the possibilities.
Slip could be 1.1186/1.1246 in this templet. I will do anther off past completed. PA is
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,367
  • Jan 25, 2023 1:21pm Jan 25, 2023 1:21pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} closing might have been premature…
premature epipulatiin.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,368
  • Jan 25, 2023 1:24pm Jan 25, 2023 1:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It took a while to get to 1.0805. Bulls closed a week above 1.0835. The month closes next week. Above 1.0835 is still bullish to me. Close this week below 1.0835. Even then, 1.070 is in the way. A January close below 1.07 reject is what bears need. Without that, 1.1186/slip is in my scope. I figured 1.0805.5 was coming since at 0.9596/slip. I was never sure about 1.1186. But its always been in the possibilities.
with only 4 trading days left, bear has a lot to do.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,369
  • Edited 2:22pm Jan 25, 2023 2:10pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} closing might have been premature…
Asia might have some fun.

looks like it’s going to push higher… I took a long on cable at 98… stop at 92, small position

edit - it was going to be -6 or +12. S/O
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: F8BE59B6-4B81-4F41-A030-D902441FE5E9.jpeg Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3E23A355-3B0C-4BF1-95C2-D9E1428C8E2D.jpeg Size: 105 KB
  • #106,370
  • Jan 25, 2023 2:54pm Jan 25, 2023 2:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It took a while to get to 1.0805. Bulls closed a week above 1.0835. The month closes next week. Above 1.0835 is still bullish to me. Close this week below 1.0835. Even then, 1.070 is in the way. A January close below 1.07 reject is what bears need. Without that, 1.1186/slip is in my scope. I figured 1.0805.5 was coming since at 0.9596/slip. I was never sure about 1.1186. But its always been in the possibilities.
Some traders on GBPUSD thread speculate that 1.2650 could be achieved by the bulls. This would mean that Euro bulls could get to 1.11.
I believe we will find out very soon due to the enormous ammount of very important news in the first two weeks of February that are coming.

DXY hanging around Support.

My first post was that I expect the price to reach 1.11 and I still support that analysis.
If we get to 1.11 and Pound consequently to 1.2650, I will start buying USD at that point.

Still waiting, though I did notice something. It seems to me that someone is actively defending Euro and Pound (or selling USD).
When the news came out for CAD, although the USD rallied against CAD, it didn't start to rally against Euro or Pound, rather started to decline which I find interesting. This very rarely happens. This just tells me someone isn't done with USD, just yet!

This is just something I noticed and have some feelings about, I just get the impression someone is overplaying their cards at the moment with USD like they're waiting for the perfect moment. Of course, these are just thoughts and not actually how I trade. Just wanted to share what I think it's going on.

It's a waiting game now and probably will be until Fed next week. We should get some play due to PCE on Friday and then I won't even bother with USD pairs until Fed.

Two things: where the price is before Fed
where the price is after Fed

Since we have a big rally, one should expect a correction or in the other case, continuation of the real trend which is still down on MN TF.
  • #106,371
  • Jan 25, 2023 3:17pm Jan 25, 2023 3:17pm
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} Some traders on GBPUSD thread speculate that 1.2650 could be achieved by the bulls. This would mean that Euro bulls could get to 1.11. I believe we will find out very soon due to the enormous ammount of very important news in the first two weeks of February that are coming. DXY hanging around Support. My first post was that I expect the price to reach 1.11 and I still support that analysis. If we get to 1.11 and Pound consequently to 1.2650, I will start buying USD at that point. Still waiting, though I did notice something. It seems to...
keep up the work on the larger tf
id probably ignore 1.26x on cable and it adding to an argument for eurusd to 1.11. People will throw numbers out there and when it eventually get there say theyre right without much/any explanation. Most will lose a lot before we/if we get to 1.265/1.11

if you aren’t already positioned for those levels then the RR has depreciated substantially.

edit - I took another long on CABLE at 1.2396, same stop 1.2392.
  • #106,372
  • Jan 25, 2023 4:23pm Jan 25, 2023 4:23pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} keep up the work on the larger tf id probably ignore 1.26x on cable and it adding to an argument for eurusd to 1.11. People will throw numbers out there and when it eventually get there say theyre right without much/any explanation. Most will lose a lot before we/if we get to 1.265/1.11 if you aren’t already positioned for those levels then the RR has depreciated substantially. edit - I took another long on CABLE at 1.2396, same stop 1.2392.
I mean you have a point! EURUSD is at 1.09 now, so GBPUSD should be at least above 1.245 going by that logic and it isn't.

Thanks!
  • #106,373
  • Jan 25, 2023 6:31pm Jan 25, 2023 6:31pm
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} Some traders on GBPUSD thread speculate that 1.2650 could be achieved by the bulls. This would mean that Euro bulls could get to 1.11. I believe we will find out very soon due to the enormous ammount of very important news in the first two weeks of February that are coming. DXY hanging around Support. My first post was that I expect the price to reach 1.11 and I still support that analysis. If we get to 1.11 and Pound consequently to 1.2650, I will start buying USD at that point. Still waiting, though I did notice something. It seems to...
I dont know if you realize this or not. Before pa hit 0.9596. I had 0.9596/slip on the radar, Its here posted. So long before it dropped to 0.9596/slip. Most gurus expected a bounce near 1.0 at the time. The bounce after was likely to be 1.0806.5 (I was considered nuts to post that). If it hadn't hit 1.0805 by the years end. Then 1.1186 was the larger target. If and only if it could break 1.0836. You just started posting here. Those numbers your posting today, were posted over 5 months back. Just saying. Its a lot easier to post 1.11 now, than before pa ever went below 1.00.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,374
  • Jan 25, 2023 6:42pm Jan 25, 2023 6:42pm
once pa can punch through the residual R from 2020. It can pass 1.0944/slip. What's the slip? It can be 43 pips. It can be less. In this area It has a chance to fall back to 1.0835 ish. This or even 1.07 may provide the launch for 1.1186/slip..

Later after pa reaches 1.1186/slip. If pa can return below 1.0935, and 1.07. It should fall back to 1.0096/x. eventually 0.93xx. To the lower algo below 0.8.
This can take a few years. 1.1186 slip may be aided to rise higher. With the nuts in congress debt ceiling.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 17 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,375
  • Jan 25, 2023 7:13pm Jan 25, 2023 7:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
once pa can punch through the residual R from 2020. It can pass 1.0944/slip. What's the slip? It can be 43 pips. It can be less. In this area It has a chance to fall back to 1.0835 ish. This or even 1.07 may provide the launch for 1.1186/slip.. Later after pa reaches 1.1186/slip. If pa can return below 1.0935, and 1.07. It should fall back to 1.0096/x. eventually 0.93xx. To the lower algo below 0.8. This can take a few years. 1.1186 slip may be aided to rise higher. With the nuts in congress debt ceiling. {image}
Some of the large banks are saying 1.15. That certainly can happen. Especially with congress not raising the debt limit. Or waiting for the last minute, or even default. To me the algo ignores a lot of stuff. I doubt it can ignore a threat of default. Anyway with the algo alone. With no added outside info. 1.1186/slip may drop this back to the next algo of a like size 0.7700. Meanwhile on a fall, others will form as R areas, new algos to short. Possible tl R in green. Somewhere above 1.230/50ish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,376
  • Jan 25, 2023 8:50pm Jan 25, 2023 8:50pm
options at 1.0950. That's within the slip of 1.0944. It may be worth a look. A possible good R with stops above 1.0950. That algo may push pa back to 0887 or 0835. Possible long there 0835 or 0835 area.. No need to risk a lot of pips on a short above 0950.. Its right or not. Its against trend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 6 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,377
  • Jan 25, 2023 8:57pm Jan 25, 2023 8:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
options at 1.0950. That's within the slip of 1.0944. It may be worth a look. A possible good R with stops above 1.0950. That algo may push pa back to 0887 or 0835. Possible long there 0835 or 0835 area.. No need to risk a lot of pips on a short above 0950.. Its right or not. Its against trend. {image} {image}
This yellow may help a drop. It makes 1.0944 and 1.0950 harder to reach. But it may also slap it down after a option wick to 1.0944/50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 23 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,378
  • Edited Jan 26, 2023 1:37am Jan 25, 2023 11:24pm | Edited Jan 26, 2023 1:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know if you realize this or not. Before pa hit 0.9596. I had 0.9596/slip on the radar, Its here posted. So long before it dropped to 0.9596/slip. Most gurus expected a bounce near 1.0 at the time. The bounce after was likely to be 1.0806.5 (I was considered nuts to post that). If it hadn't hit 1.0805 by the years end. Then 1.1186 was the larger target. If and only if it could break 1.0836. You just started posting here. Those numbers your posting today, were posted over 5 months back. Just saying. Its a lot easier to post 1.11 now,...
Haha I agree my friend!
I didn't know that you were forecasting all of that, good job.

Anyway, being called crazy means you're thinking outside of the box.
I respect "crazy" people, because crazy people are crazy at first, but later geniuses.

Wonder how many times was Tesla called an idiot or insane before he proved how much smarter and how much more intelligent he is than all of the people combined back then.

For some reason, people don't like when someone is pushing for something greater than having a job and dying. Some people don't care, well majority doesn't care. Too few people encourage other people to follow their dream.
  • #106,379
  • Edited 2:53am Jan 26, 2023 2:29am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting Don96
{quote} keep up the work on the larger tf id probably ignore 1.26x on cable and it adding to an argument for eurusd to 1.11. People will throw numbers out there and when it eventually get there say theyre right without much/any explanation. Most will lose a lot before we/if we get to 1.265/1.11 if you aren’t already positioned for those levels then the RR has depreciated substantially. edit - I took another long on CABLE at 1.2396, same stop 1.2392.
have another long on cable at 87, second one yesterday manual close before wide spreads at close of play.

currently at b.e - gives me enough to try some shorts and stay long.

out at 1.2410, didn’t take any shorts.
  • #106,380
  • Edited 1:10pm Jan 26, 2023 5:12am | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Some of the large banks are saying 1.15. That certainly can happen. Especially with congress not raising the debt limit. Or waiting for the last minute, or even default. To me the algo ignores a lot of stuff. I doubt it can ignore a threat of default. Anyway with the algo alone. With no added outside info. 1.1186/slip may drop this back to the next algo of a like size 0.7700. Meanwhile on a fall, others will form as R areas, new algos to short. Possible tl R in green. Somewhere above 1.230/50ish. {image}
No, God, No - Mme Lagarde again - 02/02/2023 Press conference following the Governing Council meeting of the ECB in Frankfurt - the start of a fresh new 1000 pips drop...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
51 traders viewing now