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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,401
  • Jan 21, 2023 1:25am Jan 21, 2023 1:25am
The Dow that can be named is not the Tao.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,402
  • Jan 21, 2023 2:19am Jan 21, 2023 2:19am
shit would break hard north if the Fed and the Market get on the same page. Feb01 setting up to be a binary mofo. If earnings come in not so bad and FOMC says 25 bps, we could break north from the chop box. If earnings mostly bomb and the Fed says 50 bps, watch out below. Well, one can hope.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,403
  • Jan 21, 2023 3:03am Jan 21, 2023 3:03am
by 2nd week of Feb, Qs could easily be $30 higher or lower. My wetdream scenario is megatech earnings suck and then the Fed disappoints with a 50, then the bottom drops out of the chop box. We could see a 10% drop in 2 weeks, no prob....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,404
  • Jan 21, 2023 3:48am Jan 21, 2023 3:48am
AAPL set up for a massive crash, no way they will have anything good to say, and the er is the day after Fed day. The old double whammy. This will not be the biggest trade I ever launched, but risking <$5k to net >$50k will be nice....
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if the calendar longs survive into the week following ER, a 2-sigma move on 200 lot AAPL could change my life

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,405
  • Jan 21, 2023 10:52am Jan 21, 2023 10:52am
QCOM also ER's 02/02. I'd look to close 02/01 after the Fed move. The names with ERs on 02/01 and 02/02 are a gift, will benefit from rising iv's from both the FOMC and the ER.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,406
  • Edited Jan 22, 2023 3:18am Jan 21, 2023 11:46pm | Edited Jan 22, 2023 3:18am
1/31: AMD, ....

2/1: META,

2/2: GOOGL, AMZN,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,407
  • Jan 24, 2023 6:13pm Jan 24, 2023 6:13pm
Quoting The Fool
1/31: AMD, .... 2/1: META, 2/2: GOOGL, AMZN,
Shotgunning calendars for the ER/FOMC iv rise. This is a special opportunity for anyone who knows how to trade vol at earnings. Mostly bot put calendars today, will look for a pullback to add the call side. But I am bearish and hunting dogs, plus the put calendars will pay better. I skipped MSFT, just looking for next week plays.
GOOGL, META, etc etc

GOOGL calendar P/L below modeled with a 10% iv rise, will be taken off b4 the release. This is how we do it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,408
  • Jan 25, 2023 2:51pm Jan 25, 2023 2:51pm
probly chop 3,950 to 4,050 or so until next week. Maybe the Fed can break it up or down.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,409
  • Jan 25, 2023 4:58pm Jan 25, 2023 4:58pm
megacap earnings, the FOMC, and the NFP. All in the same week. If that won't mash a chop box I dunno what will.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,410
  • Jan 26, 2023 5:03pm Jan 26, 2023 5:03pm
painfully slow waiting for a breakout these day, but maybe one is underway. I still think we can see some long green next week if the Fed sounds dovish. Actual SPX dbl calendar maybe the best of a long list I have for those dates....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,411
  • Jan 27, 2023 11:32am Jan 27, 2023 11:32am
Every day, chop & dip til about 1130, then steady rally to the close.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,412
  • Jan 27, 2023 8:10pm Jan 27, 2023 8:10pm
Quoting The Fool
probly chop 3,950 to 4,050 or so until next week. Maybe the Fed can break it up or down.....
I expect a bit of pull-back or flat-line next Mon-Tues, with spoos going into the FOMC 2/1 at 4,050 +/-. I have all I want on for the coming week, eyeing some AAPL trades to add but we'll see. It's going to be a very interesting week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,413
  • Jan 28, 2023 2:24pm Jan 28, 2023 2:24pm
IF you need tuition on trading spreads, lots of good content from tastytrade, a lot of it on Youtube, like th below. No tuition like experience though.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,414
  • Edited Jan 30, 2023 12:01am Jan 29, 2023 11:45pm | Edited Jan 30, 2023 12:01am
the last week of bull action could be running into reality this week. The Fed could surprise with 50 bps; the megacaps could stink on their earnings calls. I am looking at the drop from 12/13 to 12/19 and imagining something like that, if we dither around 4,050 til Wednesday a similar drop could take us below 3,850 into early next week. Tempted to shore up the downside of SPX put calendars I have with SPX long put verts, as shown.
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in this sweet dream, all the puts survive into the following Monday for full effect
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,415
  • Jan 30, 2023 10:14am Jan 30, 2023 10:14am
Quoting The Fool
Every day, chop & dip til about 1130, then steady rally to the close.
lol....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,416
  • Jan 31, 2023 1:45pm Jan 31, 2023 1:45pm
Quoting The Fool
the last week of bull action could be running into reality this week. The Fed could surprise with 50 bps; the megacaps could stink on their earnings calls. I am looking at the drop from 12/13 to 12/19 and imagining something like that, if we dither around 4,050 til Wednesday a similar drop could take us below 3,850 into early next week.
holding tight on the binary setup. It's about 5:3 bull:bear. But, seems market is dead set on rallying; only a purely hawkish FOMC could keep it down. My targets for Friday are out there, but attainable, maybe - SPX 4,200; RUT 2,000; QQQ $310....if we get a strong breakout on Wed and then good follow through on Thur-Fri, I could see those. RUT 2,000 definitely, QQQ $305, SPX $415+, sure. Problem with all the calendars though is iv's will deflate after the FOMC, so they all need big moves to do well.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,417
  • Feb 1, 2023 3:00pm Feb 1, 2023 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}holding tight on the binary setup. It's about 5:3 bull:bear. But, seems market is dead set on rallying; only a purely hawkish FOMC could keep it down. My targets for Friday are out there, but attainable, maybe - SPX 4,200; RUT 2,000; QQQ $310....if we get a strong breakout on Wed and then good follow through on Thur-Fri, I could see those. RUT 2,000 definitely, QQQ $305, SPX $415+, sure.
...coming together, will cross fingers for a big Thursday. Will likely cash out some tomorrow in fear of an NFP adverse effect...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,418
  • Feb 1, 2023 5:52pm Feb 1, 2023 5:52pm
Qs $310 by Friday maxP about $0.80 on a $0.03 entry.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,419
  • Feb 1, 2023 6:56pm Feb 1, 2023 6:56pm
Max on the RUT calendar about $4,65 on a 35c debit. Need that 2000 handle to magnetize....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,420
  • Feb 1, 2023 7:07pm Feb 1, 2023 7:07pm
SPX (I luv the big fat bastard) will net >$7 on a finish @ 4,200. A gauntlet of earnings and data to run b4 Friday, will have to take some off all the above Thursday to insure at least a break even on the last 1-2 weeks of positioning.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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