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The Swamp

  • #106,301
  • Edited 6:49am Jan 20, 2023 6:38am | Edited 6:49am
I mention 1.07 for good reason. Those can yield many pips. In this case 1.0835 needs to be taken too. 1.0787 is too small to trust alone. pa is above 1.0694/1.07 and 1.0787. But it has not cleared with a large close above 1.0835. 1.070 has a week close above it. Since it reached 1.0805. Its having the bullish momentum look. I said many times I cant argue with anyone longing. But it is unlikely to run higher without large closes above 1.0835. It will likely run lower, if a large close below 1.07/0694. Since pa has been above 1.0835, Just being below 1.07/1.0694 may be bearish. Confirmation would be a large close below 1.0964/1.07.. The debt ceiling worry favors the bulls now.

The completed structure at 1.0805/slip. Has the potential to drop it to 1.0093. A smaller structure at 1.0710/slip backed by 1.0694/1.07 has the potential to bounce it. Along with the debt ceiling it may produce 1.1189/slip +.

The problem with not making it that deep is 1.0887. A smaller support, but its a tough one.

Note what happens potentially. When the yellow are broken and closed sides. Like I said, in this case 1.0835 is needed closed. The 1.0805 completion usually requires a retrace/ or a trend change. I dont trust this bull yet. Its a good place to screw the many people..

I may be wrong.. But 1.0710/slip is not asking for too much. Seeing a test of that area is not too much. It may be a better long. If it can hold. At least until 1.0835 can start to be closed above. Today is Friday. This is the could be the largest close above 1.0835 this year, or not.
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  • #106,302
  • Jan 20, 2023 6:52am Jan 20, 2023 6:52am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Some might say Lazy. the earth is flat with no timezones. i didnt short it... Im still in EU, may reload at 1.0818/29 EDIT - its good for +10... B.E {image}
visible TL on 4h, a break may see the 1.0787 broken... it may not.
  • #106,303
  • Jan 20, 2023 7:00am Jan 20, 2023 7:00am
Quoting gatorinla
Will it go to 1.070/1.0710? I dont know. Friday's close lead me to believe, it would go to 1.0710 50/50%. If it does go there, will it bounce? I dont know, but I see some reasons it may. Mainly because of 1.0700. And if 1.0700 cant hold it with closes. I will see support is broken. I will be more inclined to short then. 1.0835 and 1.07 separately are pivotal. Being so close to each other, makes the frog in a blender movements.. It makes things less clear. Either direction has to clear both.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3MCqf00_uI&t=7s...
More of this until she gets the -1.0694/1.0835+ closes. Range trading. Month close is 11 days out. It can do 11 days or more of this.
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  • #106,304
  • Jan 20, 2023 9:32am Jan 20, 2023 9:32am
Nasdaq may be topping soon. 11554ish may be it.. Debt ceiling collateral damage. A R/R trade for me..
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  • #106,305
  • Jan 20, 2023 9:38am Jan 20, 2023 9:38am
Dow is weaker, but its into week range.. Maybe a look at the upper adr.. After 33418... ADR 33450. I will look there. NASAQ and dow may be in those places near the same time. The Nasdaq can do a little better with a weak dollar over the Dow. The Nasdaq is weighted a little more to foreign business than Dow.
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  • #106,306
  • Jan 20, 2023 9:59am Jan 20, 2023 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} More of this until she gets the -1.0694/1.0835+ closes. Range trading. Month close is 11 days out. It can do 11 days or more of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3MCqf00_uI
pretty similar to what I got... A monthly close over 1.0835-1.0860(drew that one with a crayon), gets me adding on to my core longs. The other 2 entries are at .9565 and .9910 respectively

2 broad targets for 2023... 1.3095 and 1.3400, although an argument for a major overshoot can easily be made....

One level at a time....
  • #106,307
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:18pm Jan 20, 2023 12:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
Dow is weaker, but its into week range.. Maybe a look at the upper adr.. After 33418... ADR 33450. I will look there. NASAQ and dow may be in those places near the same time. The Nasdaq can do a little better with a weak dollar over the Dow. The Nasdaq is weighted a little more to foreign business than Dow. {image}
The Dow is not near that R. The Nasdaq being the stronger is not showing weakness. No trade yet.
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  • #106,308
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:21pm Jan 20, 2023 12:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
Nasdaq may be topping soon. 11554ish may be it.. Debt ceiling collateral damage. A R/R trade for me.. {image} {image}
The Dow has not hit R. The Nasdaq can run over R as long as the Dow is rising. Patience
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  • #106,309
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:43pm Jan 20, 2023 12:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The Dow has not hit R. The Nasdaq can run over R as long as the Dow is rising. Patience
I screwed up on Dow. 33362 is a close R.. Its a big one. My Dow charts dont go high enough. An indi dont work at higher settings.. I have to reduce the time frame. This is the yellow line in other charts for a long term direction. Its being tested from below. Its a large R 33362
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  • #106,310
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:44pm Jan 20, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} More of this until she gets the -1.0694/1.0835+ closes. Range trading. Month close is 11 days out. It can do 11 days or more of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3MCqf00_uI
hi Gator,

looks like we are going to close the week and day above 0835
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #106,311
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:54pm Jan 20, 2023 12:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I screwed up on Dow. 33362 is a close R.. Its a big one. My Dow charts dont go high enough. An indi dont work at higher settings.. I have to reduce the time frame. This is the yellow line in other charts for a long term direction. Its being tested from below. Its a large R 33362 {image}
The Dow can cross this, if not its a big one. If its unable to cross. It will fall. Nasdaq is well above a like place. If the Nasdaq falls the yellow line support is 11035.. The qr1 at 11711. When you see this lost during the ceiling news. Its a big deal..
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  • #106,312
  • Jan 20, 2023 12:58pm Jan 20, 2023 12:58pm
Bitty spiking EOD today.... Lots of risk on signs....
  • #106,313
  • Jan 20, 2023 1:06pm Jan 20, 2023 1:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The Dow can cross this, if not its a big one. If its unable to cross. It will fall. Nasdaq is well above a like place. If the Nasdaq falls the yellow line support is 11035.. The qr1 at 11711. When you see this lost during the ceiling news. Its a big deal.. {image}
Its testing. I cant hold a position over the weekend.. The gap could make or break me.. I got a 1/20th short position. If it was Monday R/R wise this could be a decent one. A large gap up is not worth the risk.. Although I think it may gap down.
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  • #106,314
  • Jan 20, 2023 1:31pm Jan 20, 2023 1:31pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Bitty spiking EOD today.... Lots of risk on signs....
AJ may interest you on the heels of the debt ceiling. 8833. Its been pulled back from the edge twice this month.
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  • #106,315
  • Jan 20, 2023 1:42pm Jan 20, 2023 1:42pm
Non commercial cut more longs. Retailors are mostly long.
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  • #106,316
  • Jan 20, 2023 1:48pm Jan 20, 2023 1:48pm
This may help my eg short
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  • #106,317
  • Jan 20, 2023 4:39pm Jan 20, 2023 4:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
This may help my eg short {image}
GBP looks bullish verse usd. Added with those others.. EG short looks favorable.
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  • #106,318
  • Jan 22, 2023 3:37pm Jan 22, 2023 3:37pm
eu closed the week above 1.0835 and opened above 1.0835.. I cant be short.. I can long a retrace 1.0710 and allow for some slip.. Support to me is 1.07ish..
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  • #106,319
  • Jan 22, 2023 3:42pm Jan 22, 2023 3:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The Dow can cross this, if not its a big one. If its unable to cross. It will fall. Nasdaq is well above a like place. If the Nasdaq falls the yellow line support is 11035.. The qr1 at 11711. When you see this lost during the ceiling news. Its a big deal.. {image}
The Dow tested the R last week.. If the Dow is to drop.. This is a good place to start a good drop. 33362 ish.
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  • #106,320
  • Jan 22, 2023 3:51pm Jan 22, 2023 3:51pm
looking to tp eg around 8647,, Its testing the PP 8759 from below now,,
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