The Swamp

If you think 1.0787 will give, and you want to short. A chance for 1.0812/slip is there. The 6h dont require 1.0812.. It can drop w/o much retracing using the 6h.

H4 tested twice today... both times bears held at H4 close///

Gold...wait for H4 to break.. it will happen very soon ..

That algo at 1.0710 is near 100 pips. Away from the little one at 1.0812.. UE likes 100 pips.

Wow,, someone put a yellow line there at 0787

The 6h does not show a retrace algo. It dont have to retrace. If it does, the pp at 0810 and smaller algo at 0812. That may be worth a look.

Anyone interested in some used furniture? Twitter is having a fire sale.

Month average range reached..

not much for Eur tomorrow option expires

closed shorts, had a small one pending the break of 1.0787, it didn’t happen yet. I may get chance to re short london tomorrow…

would consider long at 1.0781… Pa will change tomorrow

New day new chart. Bulls tried to close above 1.0835 and were rejected. Bears tried to close below 1.0787 and were rejected. I think it will run back to 1.0811+. From there, things are less clear. I do think pa had/has a 50/50 shot at 1.0710 this week. The week is still open. So when it/if it goes to 1.0811+. If its unable to start closing above 1.0835. I will take the shot at 1.0710 or less. Bears need -1.07 with large closes to run/win that battle. If not 1.1186 is open, but only if it can take those large closes above 1.0835. If bears do manage to close Friday below 1.07/1.0694. Than 1.0093/slip has a shot. From there some bounce, or 0.93xx. Bounce could be 1.1186. 1.1186 has a 50/50 shot in 2023. It can go to 1.0710 and 0.93xx/slip and still make 1.1186 this year.

Here is several unknown steps.. Its either-rism No bias

Weak options (little money backing). Above the yellow (0788) favors bulls, (0787) below
the yellow favors bears. 1.0710 has the algo shot.. 1.07.. can support. Bulls need 1.07 to support. So here at 1.07/1.0787/1.0835 may be a bottom.. or the beginning of a drop pivotal.

I need to re-state this. I try not to sell at lows like 1.0787. I try to get some bounce. In this case 1.0811/slip has a algo. But the 6h closed earlier, in a place less likely to bounce much. The way it closed it may just sit near 1.0887. Then just fall from there. The system is not perfect. It wont tell you everything in black and white. My solution for these times is not to get hurt if it does bounce to 0811/slip. But I can use a smaller position and snowball a drop. Either way that's my plan.. Tp a little above 1.07/0710.. I do have a tp set at 1.0712.. I will treat 1.070 like I'm treating 1.0685. 1.07/0710 is a potential bounce. The R/R there long is better than a short there. Meaning you dont need to be right to make money. I can long a small position with a 1.067x stop. I can add if it climbs. I can close the long and short if it seems strong bear. I can add to the short if 1.07 looks to be R with closes below.

I did a smaller short. I will try to snowball to 1.070xx.. Closing below 0787 would make it a R.. Soft R at first

That last h doji at 0787.6. The h before was lower. A bear b/o in some candle teachings..

Will it go to 1.070/1.0710? I dont know. Friday's close lead me to believe, it would go to 1.0710 50/50%. If it does go there, will it bounce? I dont know, but I see some reasons it may. Mainly because of 1.0700. And if 1.0700 cant hold it with closes. I will see support is broken. I will be more inclined to short then. 1.0835 and 1.07 separately are pivotal. Being so close to each other, makes the frog in a blender movements.. It makes things less clear. Either direction has to clear both..

Had a couple shorts stopped this AM, in another with stop at 26, it’s not looking promising.

also sold EG at 0.8775, tight stop

shorted 1.0836 stop 1.0899 TP below 1.0750

Not much change.. I thought 1.0787 may break while I slept, it hasn't .. Pa is still contained within the 1.07/1.0835 +-50 area. A smaller containment 1.0787/1.088x. The latest 24h 12h 6h ect closed below 1.0835.. But not below 1.0787. PA made a hh yesterday. I hasn't made a lower low. Those hh breakouts are getting minimal. Its compressing. b/o direction has merit both ways. Most will see just the North. The South has some reasons too.

refilled on shorts at this bounce.

Closed for +40 pips

I dont know how the official debt release will be taken today. Its already common knowledge. That could launch the eu higher at any time. To do that pa has to take/hold/ and close the larger time frames above 1.0835. It could fall back to 1.0710/1.070 and take off higher. It could also be absorbed since the FED has to mid summer. That would let it fall deeper. That support at 1.0787 is smaller than 1.0710/1.07. 1.0787 can support.
The debt ceiling is reached today. It will make the news each day until solved. The Fed can move money around until mid summer before default. If a deal is not reached before that. It will affect the world. Equity markets will fall.. The USD may get a kick in the balls. What the nutz do in the house is a unknown. When they do it, or not is a unknown. Meanwhile expect volatility as deals look to made, then fail. If the default occurs, it may yield market lows, and mass layoffs worldwide. Don't fight a rise in the eu. Don't fight those larger closes above 1.0735. The debt ceiling overtime starts today. 1.0710 had a 50/50 shot at Friday's close. The debt ceiling is today, It hasn't made it back to 1.0710. Its may be harder now, than yesterday. It may be harder after Friday closes, if it has not by then. As the future days and weeks go on. It may still be a spot to long with relatively small stop. 1.07 may be the spot for 2023. That debt ceiling increases the odds 1.0835 breaks. It increases the odds 1.07 will hold support. It increases 1.1186 odds.