vidvad's 2023 4-9-18 ema journal

EDIT: To be clear, I will be working out how the 4-9-18 ema method can be used in conjunction with Stacey Burke's method.

I am using this journal to explore a trading system I devised as a result of my experience following and experimenting with rockypoint's latest system. This will take you to the very first post in rocky's thread where he first introduced the more recent system:

Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles | Page 112 | Forex Factory

The system I will be exploring in this thread is very similar to rocky's but I have replaced his 9 ema high-low band with the 4-9-18 ema's of the close. Here is how my chart is set up (please note that I use Ninjatrader as my charting platform and my brokerage I do NOT use MT4 or MT5):


The main focus of the journal is two-fold:

First, I want to explore, define, and trade rule-based set ups generated by the 4-9-18 ema's, both as stand-alone inputs, and also in the context of the swing indicator's support and resistance levels as well as previous day's highs and lows.

Second, I will be live trading the MES/ES (S&P 500 emicro and emini futures contracts) using the system's signals and also employing a planned money management and position sizing regimen to grow account equity through increased position sizing while holding risk more or less constant.

Hi Vidvad.....look forward to following your journal and learning from the insights you offer. Thanks for sharing this with us

I like to compare a time-based candle chart to the Renko HA candles. Both of these charts cover the same exact timeframe, and include all the same price data. The only difference is how that data is collated for presentation on the chart.

10 Brick Renko HA

15 minute candleestick

On the Renko HA I plot the swing indi's S&R levels along with yesterday's high and low, as well as today's pivot point. On the 15 minute I do not use the swing indi. On the time based chart, I also plot the Globex open, as well as last week's high and low.

The 9-18 "Get Ready, Get Set ... Go!" set up which I will refer to simply as the 9-18. The reason for the "ready, set, go" isn't to be cute. I hear myself saying this in my mind as a reminder to wait for the third candle to close. The third canlde closing (and a fourth candle opening) is the signal to sell short at the market when the 9 ema < 18 ema. When the 9 ema> 18 ema, the set up would be for a long trade. This is from last Thursday's CPI news day.

This is also from last Thursday, showing the 9-18, aka "ready, set, go" long trade. Note that price gave a 1st cross signal, i.e. the 4 crossed above the 9 and the 9 has crossed above the 18 ema as price crossed above the pivot point. The ready, set, go, which is a retracement set up, occurred after price pulled back into the level of the pivot.

Yesterday was first red day on MES/ES. We should see a high to low (sell high) trade this morning. We do have three pushes into the levels of the Globex open and the daily pivot, but I usually do not trade, usually before 8 AM. And when there is red news on the schedule at 8:30 AM, I wait until the news is out. Red news this morning:



My trading plan goal for today is 1 to 3 trades before 11 AM using the 4-9-18 Renko HA system.

My money management goal for today is to finish with a closed profit of 6.25 points with minimal commission and fees eating into that profit on 1 MES contract. Not a lot of money and certainly less than I have been accustomed to, but this is all part of my goal to grow position size through the year. Taking a few steps back to make many great strides forward.

EDIT: This doesn't happen often, but of course it happens today that I have to take care of an issue with my business that will take me out of the office. I'm going to miss the NY open and a good part of my timing window it would seem.

Thanks Ed, I'm looking to learn and grow myself.

My approach to the plan I am laying out here in this journal is very much influenced by Mark Douglas's Trade' like a casino" advice. You can listen to his explanation of an exercise he lays out here in this webinar video I found on youtube. I bookmarked it to the section I have been particularly inspired by:

Got back and waited for a set up. I caught this first cross short of +6.25 points. For some reason Ninjatrader "hides" the executions behind the Heikin Ashi candles so I Have to narrow the candles to show the entry and the take profit (or stop loss) executions.


Here are the three setups from today. I was away from the office for the first two, both of which were longs.


"Yesterday was first red day on MES/ES. We should see a high to low (sell high) trade this morning." Strictly speaking, this is not FRD behavior, and yesterday being a US holiday has likely affected how this set-up started and plays out. We had a parabolic move up breaking last week's high and yesterday's holiday session high. If today's close is below today's open (Globex) open, then today would, I believe, qualify as the FRD.

The failed breakout at yesterday's high and last week's high has fallen below today's open. ES is going to trade back to yesterday's low at 3996.75 at the very least today.

I call this my "Stacey Burke" template. If you do not follow Stacey's youtube channel you are missing out on a great resource. I highly recommend subscribing and studying his videos. You can find his channel here: Stacey Burke Trading - YouTube

That closes out my timing window so no further trades for me today even if we get additional setups into the afternoon. I'm going to rewatch that Mark Douglas video I Posted earlier, and I will post some notes on it later. That exercise he prescribes during the last 20 or 30 minutes of that 5+ hour seminar is the foundation of what I hope to accomplish this year.

Today's chart through my timing window:

This signal, should it trigger, is outside of my timing window, but it is a good example of how to trade the system. If the current candle, currently reen, closes green the 4 ema blue dot will appear, and that will be the signal to go long at the market. A 9-18 RSG short did trigger (again, outside of my own personal timeing window) and then the entry candle closed as a green doji. When the entry candle closes opposite of the trade direction, I exit the trade at the market and take whatever the loss happens to be, unless my stop has been hit already, of course.



EDIT: Never closed green, never got the cross signal. Instead it gave a 9-18 RSG short signal.

Looks like the market has decided to stay inside and wait for tomorrow's red news for catalysts. Right now market is working on a FRD today to setup tomorrow.

ES did travel the full of yesterday's range. That low tick shown at this moment is exactly 3996.75

Hi Vidvad...thanks for posting Mark Douglas youtube. I read his book years ago, and so refreshing and insightful to hear him again. If anyone has not heard Mark Douglas before, highly recommended.

"W" price action at yesterday's low & Monday's low, with a spike into last week's high following the BOJ announcement last night.


Current ES market cycle

First Red Day short sale on the YMN was best trade setup for me. Trailing stop with a profit target near last week's low. This is a Stacey Burke style trade set up and I am not claiming I traded it as well as Stacey would have traded it.

Big picture of the YM using hourly candles.

Same principle at play on the YM Dow mini today. Failed breakout of last week's high and First Red Day FRD break of yesterday's low after three pushes into the high of day implies high odds that the YM will go coast to coast of last week's range.

This is how the 4-9-18 worked today in conjunction with the Stacey Burke method.