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  • #18,381
  • Jan 5, 2023 11:30am Jan 5, 2023 11:30am
it could pay well on a big drop, after it clears the IC date....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,382
  • Jan 5, 2023 2:56pm Jan 5, 2023 2:56pm
double vert QQQ 1 dte for tomorrow. NFP could be binary, we'll see.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,383
  • Jan 6, 2023 1:43am Jan 6, 2023 1:43am
every big up or down move last year m/l has been Fed or inflation data related; good vol and sideways action is good for selling premium

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,384
  • Edited 11:36pm Jan 8, 2023 11:19pm | Edited 11:36pm
Bright spot of Monday: I had double RUT calendars - call side Jan6/9 1820. I entered for less than a buck, they were worth $1.30 or so Friday, with RUT closing at 1793. So I've let the long calls run for a shot at glory Monday. Watching /RTY overnight - there is a bit of a spread between /RTY and RUT - about $10 I think. Anyway, RUT 1820 calls touching itm early could go >$10, would be sweet. Everything else I have is set up for a play off the 1/12 CPI...

I am going to need some help, about a 20+ pt gap up would be nice, then a 15+ pt run in the first 90 minutes.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,385
  • Jan 9, 2023 2:22am Jan 9, 2023 2:22am
Quoting The Fool
... I am going to need some help........
....not looking too good. Doji country. Nothing but sideways with a big red/green candle thrown in off any Fed related data read. I should just sell the shit and be happy with it.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,386
  • Jan 9, 2023 2:36am Jan 9, 2023 2:36am
ATR of /RTY dipping back towards 35. I'd be happy to get all of that northbound Monday, give me RUT 1825....maybe alot to ask for a Monday
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,387
  • Jan 9, 2023 11:09am Jan 9, 2023 11:09am
Quoting The Fool
.... give me RUT 1825....maybe alot to ask for a Monday
slow going in Monday midday. Sold half the 1820 calls for $3 net. Holding the rest for a late day rally and $4+....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,388
  • Jan 10, 2023 4:51pm Jan 10, 2023 4:51pm
RUT vert/dagger combo to catch a runner off the CPI. The RUT vert shown I actually did with 10x IWMs. 50c credit for the combo, no downside loss, unlimited (lol) upside....

....if all the long options survive til Monday 1/17, a crazy pop >1900 could pay over $25....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,389
  • Jan 11, 2023 1:17am Jan 11, 2023 1:17am
Quoting The Fool
RUT vert/dagger combo to catch a runner off the CPI. ....
....will add a similar no-cost RUT put combo side, same dates & width as above, but I think this rally will get some legs all the way into Q4 earnings weeks. CPI core is likely going to drop bigger than we have seen and we could see a 5% bull run into early next week. I have Dec12 SPX 4025/4050 bear calls, part of an IC where the put side has already been bot back, and I will get out of those puts tomorrow b4 the close, prolly close to 90% profit if SPX freezes up ahead of CPI Thurs, which is typical.

Easily we could see 4,200 in January. I think we are heading for a breakout of the downslope channel that defined 2022. I think a lot of it will get done in January. Maybe the Fed will throw some meat to the bears on 2/1, but that could be a momentary hiccup. Maybe Q4 earnings will blow, but that will not be fully done until the last week of Jan.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,390
  • Edited 1:58am Jan 11, 2023 1:37am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}.... Easily we could see 4,200 in January.
...that's right. Spoos might not see sub-4,000 for months after Friday. Following are some bullish lotto ticket trades that could get you a lot richer in just a few weeks. Don't risk any money you can't afford to lose. The Fool is wrong at least 1/2 the time, which is why he always trades up, down, and sideways.

50-cent Jan 27/31 SPX call calendar. Risk 50c to make as much as $10, or more, best payday is the last Fri before the next FOMC.
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Jan 27 vertical calls, $100 wide, $4200/$4300, these can be had tomorrow for about $1.50, and could pay up to $98.50 in a crazy bull breakout by 1/27. Some of the biggest paydays I have ever scored trading options have been on these wide, cheap SPX verticals, set to catch a breakout...I'm buying a 20-lot of these mañana...maybe...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,391
  • Edited 7:45pm Jan 12, 2023 1:25pm | Edited 7:45pm
RUT price @ 1872 has gone past the diag short strike. But I am hedged with the call vert. So I can wait and see what tomorrow brings. A little pullback tomorrow, closing under RUT 1870, will be nice....

(...in the trade combo below, the hedge trade is about 30% too small, and the front of the vert needs to be closer to the short strike of the diagonal - 1870 or lower. Not aa problem as the vert is in IWM, but check the spread between IWM and RUT. Live and learn....)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,392
  • Jan 12, 2023 9:53pm Jan 12, 2023 9:53pm
Hi buddy

can you tell me which broker you using
The only prayer you need is Thankyou
  • #18,393
  • Jan 12, 2023 10:41pm Jan 12, 2023 10:41pm
Quoting Formonix
Hi buddy can you tell me which broker you using
no
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,394
  • Jan 13, 2023 6:56pm Jan 13, 2023 6:56pm
Quoting The Fool
(...in the trade combo below, the hedge trade is about 30% too small, and the front of the vert needs to be closer to the short strike of the diagonal - 1870 or lower. Not aa problem as the vert is in IWM, but check the spread between IWM and RUT. Live and learn....)
THAT was a costly mistake, about $1.25 net loss on the RUT call diag. However, I've let all the IWM long calls run for Tuesday, and they (Jan17 $188s) are just $1 otm. So Tuesday could be a happy day. Or not.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,395
  • Jan 14, 2023 8:07am Jan 14, 2023 8:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}THAT was a costly mistake, about $1.25 net loss on the RUT call diag. However, I've let all the IWM long calls run for Tuesday, and they (Jan17 $188s) are just $1 otm. So Tuesday could be a happy day. Or not.....
It looks like you are buying calls and puts? There's really not much upside to that because by buying options you are basically trying to predict unpredictable price moves AND paying for being right AND for being wrong. You are basically paying other people who insure your trades by selling buys and calls to you. And since this is insurance business it's calculated to the tee so that insurers on average make money, otherwise, what's the point of insuring it. I wonder what is there to discuss on 920 pages in this thread? It's very hard to lose money trading options that way.
  • #18,396
  • Jan 14, 2023 10:44am Jan 14, 2023 10:44am
Quoting costos
{quote} It looks like you are buying calls and puts? There's really not much upside to that because by buying options you are basically trying to predict unpredictable price moves AND paying for being right AND for being wrong. You are basically paying other people who insure your trades by selling buys and calls to you. And since this is insurance business it's calculated to the tee so that insurers on average make money, otherwise, what's the point of insuring it. I wonder what is there to discuss on 920 pages in this thread? It's very hard to...
you don't seem to have the slightest ability to recognize what I'm doing. It's all right there on the screen grabs, it's all spreading. In a thread called "Let's Trade Options" and in an "Interactive Trading" forum, it should be obvious this is a place for actual options traders to post. If you don't have some trades to discuss, kindly refrain from posting.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,397
  • Jan 14, 2023 11:11am Jan 14, 2023 11:11am
Quoting The Fool
However, I've let all the IWM long calls run for Tuesday, and they (Jan17 $188s) are just $1 otm. So Tuesday could be a happy day. Or not.....
costos, I'm impressed that, in your 15 yrs of membership here, I have warranted one of your <100 posts. In deference to that, I will offer you some brief instruction on what spreading means, if you're interested.

The leftover piece of the RUT/IWM combo above is 75 $188 long calls. I could have closed those for 50c Friday, but decided to wait and see what the long weekend might deliver for a gap up, as we are obviously in a bull breakout. This is a dominant reason to trade time spreads - to lower the cost basis of buying options and to put yourself in a position to profit from better placement. In the RUT/IWM combo, the IWM vertical serves to mitigate the tail risk of the RUT diagonal, which went on for a $2 credit anyway.

As shown below, a gap up and rally above $190 on Tuesday is going to pay handsomely, knock on wood.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,398
  • Jan 14, 2023 11:37am Jan 14, 2023 11:37am
IWM closed Friday @ $187.05, but a $10 move ah in /RTY suggests it's already knocking on the door of $188. ATR of IWM has been cratering, now siting around $3.30, but she throws off >4$ green candles still now and then. A touch of $192 early Tuesday will pay $3.75 net on a $0.26 risk, so I have stc orders set at $3.75, will adjust Monday late of course. A touch of $192 Tuesday pays the mortgage for 2+ years.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,399
  • Edited 12:55pm Jan 14, 2023 12:36pm | Edited 12:55pm
I get the best trading advice from the astrologists.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/week...100030510.html

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Merc positive and New Moon in Aquarius not til the end of the coming week, but positive results will be coming. Earnings coming in will be better than expected until the mega techs week of 1/23. That will be a turbulent week, followed by FOMC week, and I bet they will back off the hawk. It seems the soft landing is within reach so long as the Fed stays on the goldilocks path. I think spoos 4,100 can be touched no problem in the coming short week, but also may reach for that and get beat back around 4,070. The latter my lower level for credit spread short strikes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,400
  • Jan 17, 2023 2:01pm Jan 17, 2023 2:01pm
Quoting The Fool
A touch of $192 early Tuesday will pay $3.75 net on a $0.26 risk, so I have stc orders set at $3.75, will adjust Monday late of course. A touch of $192 Tuesday pays the mortgage for 2+ years.
....PIPE DREAMS. Monday is a bad day to set up for a breakout, generally. And IWM is a feeble mover anyway, ATR about to dip under $3. This is pretty much a dead market now, with the only good moves coming off Fed/Inflation and a few other data releases. This is where the algos are trading and that's mostly what trades in the short-term....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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