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EURUSD - Trading near the resistance line of the rising corridor

Yesterday, November data on borrowings in the EU countries were presented, which was poor: the volume of loans to enterprises grew by 8.4% instead of the expected 8.6%, and to the private sector – by 4.1% instead of 4.3%. Today, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of the Spanish consumer price index in December, and, according to analysts' forecasts, the index, harmonized with EU standards, may slow down from 6.7% to 6.0%. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair show corrective growth and are confidently holding near the resistance line of the ascending corridor. Technical indicators point to continued growth.

Support levels: 1.0574, 1.0396 | Resistance levels: 1.0691, 1.0849

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EURJPY faces strong negative pressures

The EURJPY pair surrendered to the negative pressures represented by the moving average 55 consolidation near 142.40 resistance in addition to stochastic exit from the overbought areas, to provide chances to get the negative momentum and notice its crawl towards 140.95, to record the first waited negative target. We expect to face more negative pressures, to form new negative attack and press on 140.25 level, while breaking it will extend trades negatively towards 139.80 followed by reaching the next main target at 138.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 141.70 and 140.25.

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EURUSD gets new positive signal

The EURUSD pair leaned on the EMA50 and begins to provide slight positive trades by today’s open, noticing that stochastic overlaps positively now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the expected bullish trend for the upcoming period, which its targets begin by testing 1.0745, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 1.0840 areas. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active, noting that breaking 1.0640 might press on the price to provide intraday negative trades that target testing 1.0515 areas before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.06 support and 1.0760 resistance.

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USDJPY Resumes the Main Bearish Track

The USDJPY pair faced strong negative pressures in the previous sessions to return to the main bearish channel, and begins today with additional decline to break 130 barrier and open the way to continue the bearish bias on the intraday and short term basis, making the bearish trend dominant in the upcoming sessions, and we expect to target 128.90 followed by 127.85 levels as next main stations.

The EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 130.55 and holding above it, as breaching this level might push the price to test 132.35 areas initially before any new negative attempt.

The expected trading range for today is between 128.60 support and 130.50 resistance

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USDCAD Begins Negatively

The USDCAD pair found solid resistance around 1.3600, to rebound downwards strongly now, on its way to turn to decline and head to achieve negative targets that start by testing 1.3500 and extend to 1.3405 after breaking the previous level. Therefore, we expect to witness more bearish bias today supported by the negative signals provide by stochastic, taking into consideration that breaching 1.3620 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to 1.3680 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.3460 support and 1.3600 resistance.
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BTCUSD - Uncertainty remains in the crypto market

The BTCUSD pair started the first week of the new year with a moderate attempt at growth and reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 16800. Market activity remains subdued due to the loss of investor confidence in digital assets after the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.

Currently, experts are trying to predict the dynamics of "digital gold" in the coming year, but there is no consensus on this issue: according to preliminary estimates, the value of BTC can rise to 250,0K dollars per coin or fall to 10,0K. Nevertheless, most experts are inclined to believe that serious price jumps should not be expected, and the overall situation of the sector will remain rather negative. Pressure on it will continue to be exerted by the course of tightening monetary policy taken by the world's leading central banks, aiming to significantly reduce inflation, and the growth of activity of regulators seeking to limit the activities of crypto companies, thus ensuring greater protection of investors' capital. The main hopes for significant growth are associated with 2024, when a reversal of the policy of the US Fed is expected and the beginning of a significant reduction in interest rates, as well as another halving of BTC, which traditionally has a positive effect on the price of the first cryptocurrency. As for the mid−term outlook, the BTCUSD pair is likely to continue trading within the sideways range of 17500 − 16250 (Murray levels [6/8]-[5/8]). Now the price is testing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands 16800, when consolidated above which it will be able to rise to 17500 (Murray level [6/8]) and 19100 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 16250 (Murray [5/8], the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will increase the prospects for the downward movement of the trading instrument to the area of 15700 (the area of November lows) and 15000 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 16800, 17500, 19100 | Support levels: 16250, 15700, 15000

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Gold Technical Analysis

Gold price faces negative pressure now, to head towards potential test to the key support 1824.50, affected by stochastic negativity, while the EMA50 continues to provide the positive support to the price, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid conditioned by the price stability above the mentioned support and the most important above 1812.25, reminding you that our waited targets begin at 1850 and extend to 1900. The expected trading range for today is between 1830 support and 1865 resistance.
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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil price approached our waited target at 81.60 but it bounced downwards strongly to reach the key support 78.93, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as continuing the negative pressure and breaking this level will stop the correctional bullish trend and push the price to suffer new losses on the intraday basis, while consolidating above it will lead the price to test 81.60 initially. The expected trading range for today is between 78.60 support and 82.00 resistance.

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NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The NZDUSD pair trades with strong negativity to break 0.6275 and form double top pattern that has negative targets that start by testing 0.6130, to suggest the continuation of the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions as long as 0.6275 level remains intact, noting that breaking 0.630 will extend the bearish wave to reach 0.6010 areas as a next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6150 support and 0.6260 resistance

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EURUSD - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level A has completed, in which the fifth wave (5) of A has appeared and the upward wave B is developing. At the moment, the construction of the first wave 1 of (A) of B continues, in which the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed and the development of a local correction as the fourth wave iv of 1 is observed.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will rise to the area of 1.1 – 1.1196. The level of 1.0485 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.
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USDCHF - The possibility of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 is developing, in which the ascending first wave (1) of 3 appeared and the downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. At the moment, wave C of (2) has ended and wave (3) of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the upward dynamics of the USDCHF pair will continue to the area of 0.9900 – 1.0151. The level of 0.9195 is critical and stop-loss for this scenario.
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GBPJPY Under the Negative Pressure

The GBPJPY pair ended yesterday by touching 155.35 level, to approach the previously waited target followed by bouncing temporarily towards 157, noting that the bearish track will remain valid depending on 158.70 level forming additional barrier, to expect gathering the additional negative momentum by reaching 155 level followed by attempting to press on the historical support at 154.55. Any attempt to rally above the mentioned barrier might lead to postpone the negative attack and start the correctional bullish track again, to target 160 as a first correctional station. The expected trading range for today is between 157.6 and 154.6.
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EURJPY Takes Breath

The EURJPY pair started to form intraday sideways trades by consolidating near 138.2 level, attempting to take a breath after suffering additional losses yesterday and touching 137.40 target. We remind you that forming continuous barrier at 138.8 and getting negative momentum by the major indicators will reinforce the domination of the bearish bias for the upcoming period, to keep waiting to resume the negative attack and attempt to reach 136.55 that forms the next target for the negative trades.

The expected trading range for today is between 138.80 and 137.

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ETHUSD - Technical analysis

This week, the price has attempted to grow and is currently actively testing the level of 1250 (Murray level [2/8]), consolidation above which will allow the cryptocurrency to return to the mark of 1325 and try to leave the long-term descending channel to rise to the area of 1500 (Murray level [4/8]). Otherwise, the downward dynamics will increase to the levels of 1090, 1000 (Murray level [0/8]) and 875 (Murray level [-1/8]). Technical indicators allow for the resumption of a smooth decline: the Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone, which can become a catalyst for the reversal of the trading instrument down.

Resistance levels: 1250, 1325, 1500 | Support levels: 1090, 1000, 875
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NZDUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the development of the wave (C) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed, and a local correction is developing as the second wave ii of 1 of (C), within which the wave (c) of ii is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6383.
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AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the development of the third wave (3) started, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) develops. Now, the wave (iii) of i has developed, a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i, and the wave (v) of i is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow to the area of 0.7040–0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6681.

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Gold Price Gathers Positive Momentum

Gold price continues to rise, organized inside new bullish channel that appears on the chart, noticing that stochastic gets rid of its negative momentum gradually, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bullish wave that its next target located at 1900. Therefore, our bullish overview will remain valid and active unless breaking 1820.50 and holding below it. The expected trading range for today is between 1840 support and 1875 resistance.
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Chart of the day - US500

FOMC minutes released yesterday have been rather hawkish with the document noting that US central bankers do not expect rate cuts in 2023. It also noted that while progress has been made in bringing inflation back under control, more rate hikes are needed although a slower pace may be adequate. Release can be seen as hawkish but no major long-lasting market reaction occurred in the aftermath. This can be reasoned with the fact that FOMC minutes have only repeated what the market has already known and has already been pricing in. Taking a look at US500 chart at H4 interval, we can see that the index has been struggling to launch a larger move in either direction as of late. US500 has been trading in a 3,800 - 3,920 pts range since mid-December, awaiting catalyst for the next bigger move. While today's ADP employment report at 1:15 pm GMT is unlikely to be such a catalyst, tomorrow's NFP data may be source of elevated volatility.

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Crude Oil Price Hits the Extended Target

Crude oil price succeeded to achieve our main waited target at 73.30 and fluctuates near it, and we believe that the way is open to achieve more decline in the upcoming sessions, to head towards visiting the recently recorded low at 70.30 as a next main target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain suggested on the intraday and short term basis, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting that breaching 74.20 will push the price to achieve intraday gains that target testing 75.63 before any new attempt to decline. The expected trading range for today is between 71.50 support and 75 resistance.
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EURUSD Tests the Support

The EURUSD pair settles at 1.0515 support line, as the price keeps its consolidation above this level, accompanied by witnessing clear positive signals through stochastic, to believe that the chances valid to resume the main bullish trend, which its targets begin at 1.0625 and extend to 1.0745 after surpassing the previous level. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 1.0515 will push the price to achieve additional decline that targets 1.0425 areas initially. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0470 support and 1.0620 resistance.

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