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The Swamp

  • #106,061
  • Jan 4, 2023 4:28am Jan 4, 2023 4:28am
Euro zone recession may not be as deep as expected -PMI...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...mi-2023-01-04/
I am who I am
  • #106,062
  • Jan 4, 2023 10:59am Jan 4, 2023 10:59am
It looks like #4 will come today. KM looks to be on a banana peel. A #4 rejection today, may be a Swan song for KM. This is why we cant have nice things.

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,063
  • Jan 4, 2023 11:41am Jan 4, 2023 11:41am
Quoting gatorinla
It looks like #4 will come today. KM looks to be on a banana peel. A #4 rejection today, may be a Swan song for KM. This is why we cant have nice things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2b-2YnfZso
#4 started.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,064
  • Jan 4, 2023 1:08pm Jan 4, 2023 1:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} #4 started.
#4 KM losses. #5 started, KM already lost 5 votes. So #5 is already lost by KM.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,065
  • Jan 4, 2023 3:02pm Jan 4, 2023 3:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} #4 KM losses. #5 started, KM already lost 5 votes. So #5 is already lost by KM.
#6 already lost by KM.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,066
  • Jan 4, 2023 3:33pm Jan 4, 2023 3:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}#6 already lost by KM.
Round 6 KM, kicked to the curve. Adjoined to 8pm tonight.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,067
  • Jan 4, 2023 4:52pm Jan 4, 2023 4:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
Eu looks to want 1.0638/slip. ATM high 1.0635. Current 1.0614.
Add the higher yesterday post to this. PA may want a little higher to 1.0650/slip. There could be R anywhere into 1.07.. 1.0638 may be too light now. Adding 43 pips to 1.0650, lands pa at the year open area, at 1.0694. PA may find R there. 1.0650/94
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,068
  • Jan 4, 2023 5:05pm Jan 4, 2023 5:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bruce Lee Was said to study/trained in this. When i was growing up. A kid playing baseball died from a ball to the chest. My coach hit the ball.
Exactly, it happens in baseball and hockey more frequently than people want to admit. Poor kid…uggh
  • #106,069
  • Edited 5:40pm Jan 4, 2023 5:30pm | Edited 5:40pm
Politics 101. To make a deal. Both sides usually compromise, to get some of what they want. In this case, its the majority party fighting amongst itself. In the proposed compromise, the minority of the majority party got all that was asked for. Yet they refuse to yield. When you get all your asking for, and its not enough. Evidently you dont want to compromise. If this be the case, the odds that some in that same majority party. May make a deal with the minority party. All that is needed is 5 major party crossovers, to make that deal. As crazy as this may sound. Many of these guys are in purple districts. Their god is re-election. The odds are against this. But its possible. Its possible a deal like this. Could weed out all the crazies in both parties. This has a chance to be wild.
Those crossovers would then yield enormous power. A plain Jane , no name could rise.

What's this have to do with trading? If a deal is not made. The debt limit rise, may not come. The usd may suffer. World wise things would be volatile.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,070
  • Jan 4, 2023 5:42pm Jan 4, 2023 5:42pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Pending short at 1.0734 SL 1.0742 TG 1.0275 sounds crazy but those are the trades that hit once or twice a year and make ur whole year
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Its a danger zone for my short from 1.0735… So I covered 30% at the bell at 1.0585… Ill re-engage on a stop order below 1.0520… or if we rise back through 1.0635 again Ill reduce further and re-establish my macro long with the alpha from the short.

This thing is taking me for a ride… 1.0520 never had the bid/ask print below it…. So Im still short, 80% of the initial risk due to re-risking at 1.0585 and using the alpha to reshort above 1.0635( got my fill at 1.0678)…

We’ll see… Target is still valid…. I still have sell stops under 1.0520 to get back to a 100% position
  • #106,071
  • Jan 5, 2023 10:14am Jan 5, 2023 10:14am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} {quote} This thing is taking me for a ride… 1.0520 never had the bid/ask print below it…. So Im still short, 80% of the initial risk due to re-risking at 1.0585 and using the alpha to reshort above 1.0635( got my fill at 1.0678)… We’ll see… Target is still valid…. I still have sell stops under 1.0520 to get back to a 100% position
Filled… only a 24 pip stop…

not my favorite time of day to get filled… 5 min before the Fix…. But, gotta follow the rules
  • #106,072
  • Jan 5, 2023 3:50pm Jan 5, 2023 3:50pm
Wow! Anyone saw the leaked K McCarthy secret meeting video from earlier today?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,073
  • Jan 5, 2023 6:15pm Jan 5, 2023 6:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Round 6 KM, kicked to the curve. Adjoined to 8pm tonight.
Round 7,8, 9,10 and 11 looks like a KM loss. If KM wins, shutdowns in funding government looks like it will happen. Whoever takes KM place will probably have to follow agreements KM made. Probably in late summer we may see that shutdown.

The unlikely wildcard is if moderate leaning GOP, make a deal with Dems. It would just take a handful.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,074
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:05pm Jan 5, 2023 7:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Round 7,8, 9,10 and 11 looks like a KM loss. If KM wins, shutdowns in funding government looks like it will happen. Whoever takes KM place will probably have to follow agreements KM made. Probably in late summer we may see that shutdown. The unlikely wildcard is if moderate leaning GOP, make a deal with Dems. It would just take a handful.
Another thing that could pop up is.. The longer this goes on, life will knock on the door. People may start to leave to attend normal life functions. Wedding, funerals, home to see the family. whatever. If some of those are KM votes. It dilutes the number needed. The other side could sneak in. If 5 or so leave town before KM or another is voted in.

It looks like it will start over tomorrow at noon.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,075
  • Jan 5, 2023 7:55pm Jan 5, 2023 7:55pm
"In 1859 it took a record 44 votes to elect a Speaker. Then two years later, the country split into two and engaged in a Civil War."
Muni loves you all!
  • #106,076
  • Jan 5, 2023 11:31pm Jan 5, 2023 11:31pm
Quoting MuniFX
"In 1859 it took a record 44 votes to elect a Speaker. Then two years later, the country split into two and engaged in a Civil War."
Well some people are playing checkers in a game of 4 dimensional chess. They think they will wake up. With all their ills fixed. They may wake up owning no property, with no money in the bank. If the country would dissolve, the laws would dissolve. All retirement and other social programs gone. They may wake up with other countries influencing whatever comes next. I hear people who never missed a meal, living in a nicer home than their ancestors. Feeling intitled, like they worked harder than the grand parents did. They all want a trophy. Things may not be perfect, but they are better than most. People today live better than many kings of the past. The belly is full, the ac keeps them cool. So lets bitch about others. That's when you got too much time on your hands. Goebbels 101.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,077
  • Jan 6, 2023 12:01am Jan 6, 2023 12:01am
I bought a little one at 1.0512. possible s 0548. I should leave this alone until after NFP.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,078
  • Jan 6, 2023 12:30am Jan 6, 2023 12:30am
Going to bed.. Some light support may be at 1.0511.. But bears needs a day close below 1.0508 s, or it may rise. Some light PP R 1.0556 could attract. But 1.0547/49 r
+ may be a day close needed for bulls. Price being between 1.0548 and 1.0508. May not find some range. Being a NFP Friday. It would be nice for one of these to win for future.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,079
  • Jan 6, 2023 7:10am Jan 6, 2023 7:10am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Filled… only a 24 pip stop… not my favorite time of day to get filled… 5 min before the Fix…. But, gotta follow the rules
well, dodged that one... damn thing corrected to 1.0543(stops at 1.0544 plus spread)

I reduced the position to 50% at 1.0488 with the number coming up today.... sell stops to reengage under 1.0445.... figure its worth risking 43 ticks in order to not get rekt if we rally back to 1.0635

Dxy 105.68 is a daily... 106.25 opens to door to 108.08 again....
  • #106,080
  • Jan 6, 2023 8:24am Jan 6, 2023 8:24am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} well, dodged that one... damn thing corrected to 1.0543(stops at 1.0544 plus spread) I reduced the position to 50% at 1.0488 with the number coming up today.... sell stops to reengage under 1.0445.... figure its worth risking 43 ticks in order to not get rekt if we rally back to 1.0635 Dxy 105.68 is a daily... 106.25 opens to door to 108.08 again....
I left a pending short at 0547.. The bastard missed, up to 0545. Equities are about to get some volume. It could push it again.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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