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  • #18,321
  • Dec 21, 2022 3:23pm Dec 21, 2022 3:23pm
LAST trades of the year positioned for a nice little Santa rally into next week, another rejection off the 200d sma @ about 4,050 would be swell.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,322
  • Dec 21, 2022 3:59pm Dec 21, 2022 3:59pm
Quoting The Fool
LAST trades of the year positioned for a nice little Santa rally into next week, another rejection off the 200d sma @ about 4,050 would be swell.
Yep, my guess is right to 395. they crushed calls today so maybe the early year end rebalancing is largely over
  • #18,323
  • Dec 22, 2022 12:19am Dec 22, 2022 12:19am
Quoting Wulfgar
Yep, my guess is right to 395. they crushed calls today so maybe the early year end rebalancing is largely over
Best of what I have for spoos Santa rally is below, some of it needs to come off early. 4000 is possible Friday, if I see that I'll grab the cash, maybe leave half of that 10 lot wide vert for next week
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,324
  • Dec 22, 2022 1:06am Dec 22, 2022 1:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 4000 is possible Friday,
...oh hell yes it is Santa. Get off the fruit cake and kick some a$$. Been a while since we seen some a them face-ripping green candles, but they are doable - there's 5 of them~100+ basterds since 10/13. Now let's gitter dun.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,325
  • Dec 22, 2022 11:32am Dec 22, 2022 11:32am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Best of what I have for spoos Santa rally
...Once again, done in by good data...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,326
  • Dec 22, 2022 12:11pm Dec 22, 2022 12:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...Once again, done in by good data...
Welp, maybe the fact they crushed all the calls was the tell....

Rough out there... Im 100% long.... praying for a rally, if I don't get one Ill just swap risk

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  • #18,327
  • Dec 22, 2022 1:35pm Dec 22, 2022 1:35pm
I won't be surprised if we claw back 1/2 of this down move in the last 2 hrs. Anyway I bot some Dec22 3810/3840 bull call verts, in for 45c I want 4$ back
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,328
  • Dec 22, 2022 1:39pm Dec 22, 2022 1:39pm
Quoting The Fool
I won't be surprised if we claw back 1/2 of this down move in the last 2 hrs. Anyway I bot some Dec22 3810/3840 bull call verts, in for 45c I want 4$ back
You know the game dude.... if we rip tmmrw, but less than todays high....next week is a blood bath

If we engulf... rally on

If we sell off more, and hold the lows over the weekend..... its a gigachad rally

I got 3735-3670 as a macro accumulation zone.... who knows if we get there...
  • #18,329
  • Dec 22, 2022 1:44pm Dec 22, 2022 1:44pm
gawdammit I want 3830 in the last 10 minutes! I will crush my enemies into the ground!

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,330
  • Dec 22, 2022 2:01pm Dec 22, 2022 2:01pm
Quoting The Fool
gawdammit I want 3830 in the last 10 minutes! I will crush my enemies into the ground! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7HD2xG92-0
...chickened out and took $3. Nevertheless, a welcome if small consolation to close an otherwise disappointing day...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,331
  • Dec 22, 2022 2:26pm Dec 22, 2022 2:26pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...chickened out and took $3. Nevertheless, a welcome if small consolation to close an otherwise disappointing day...
same, Im mostly pissed because I was up during London last night and thought about hedging for a red day today..... the key word being "thought"
  • #18,332
  • Dec 22, 2022 2:54pm Dec 22, 2022 2:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...chickened out and took $3. Nevertheless, a welcome if small consolation to close an otherwise disappointing day...
Did just what I thot - 3810 went to $12+ and 3840 died at $0. no guts no glory.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,333
  • Dec 22, 2022 2:55pm Dec 22, 2022 2:55pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} same, Im mostly pissed because I was up during London last night and thought about hedging for a red day today..... the key word being "thought"
..I knew that big raft of data was coming, Santa rally hopium got the best of me. I recovered on the scalp....live to trade another day. Happy Holidays bro...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,334
  • Dec 22, 2022 2:58pm Dec 22, 2022 2:58pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Did just what I thot - 3810 went to $12+ and 3840 died at $0. no guts no glory.....
...I usually miss the glory on these scalps. Sometimes I nail a perfect finish on a calendar. I should try shooting them more often. As seen, $0.45 to $12 net was a quick >$10g winner, a 20+ bagger, coulda shoulda....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,335
  • Edited 11:34pm Dec 22, 2022 11:21pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} ... if we rip tmmrw, but less than todays high....next week is a blood bath If we engulf... rally on If we sell off more, and hold the lows over the weekend..... its a gigachad rally I got 3735-3670 as a macro accumulation zone.... who knows if we get there...
...Just need some ambiguous to weak data to start the day, and we recover most/all of Thursday's loss. If we approach 3,900+ to close Friday, and the ice storm is over by 12/27, then hells yes we can get to 4,000+ next week on freaky thin volume moves. I am hanging in on all the call spreads shown above, may roll some of it down a bit and out to 12/30, or add to it. I will look at some RUT lotto tix, like the combo below. If she can get a good start tomorrow, RUT might make 1880 to close the year.

@12/30 calendar expiry....
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@1/3/23 if let calendar long calls run
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,336
  • Dec 23, 2022 1:11am Dec 23, 2022 1:11am
common theme I hear is, "ok give us a bit of Santa rally so we can position for the big dump in Q1." Downside targets to line up for post Q1 earnings: QQQ at least down to the pre-pandemic high, which was $237, just 10% lower than today's price (Qs below $200 conceivable); SPX - $3,300 or lower; RUT <$1,300. How bout AAPL <$90? NVDA <$85?

I might super-bear the Qs but I want a better entry...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,337
  • Dec 23, 2022 7:19am Dec 23, 2022 7:19am
aaaarrrgghhh more data for the goodnews = badnews mill...if PCE numbers come in warm to hot, we will repeat yesterday. Santa needs some help getting the slay off the ground.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,338
  • Dec 23, 2022 7:37am Dec 23, 2022 7:37am
Homie Claus just can't catch a break
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,339
  • Edited 3:01pm Dec 23, 2022 2:51pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...I usually miss the glory on these scalps. Sometimes I nail a perfect finish on a calendar. I should try shooting them more often. As seen, $0.45 to $12 net was a quick >$10g winner, a 20+ bagger, coulda shoulda....
...With 20 minutes left, I paper bought a Dec23 SPX call vert 3845/3850, for 35c. Bot at the bottom of a run of 4 red 5-min candles. Almost paper closed at $1 net profit, let's see if the close works better.....

....a tp to close @ $1.50 would've filled

....she just missed closing itm, missed by a few cents. Similar trade at 3840/3845 woulda made 5 bucks or more. These scalps are very worthwhile, especially on high volume days, put on in the last 90 to 20 minutes or so....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,340
  • Dec 23, 2022 3:34pm Dec 23, 2022 3:34pm
Quoting The Fool
These scalps are very worthwhile, especially on high volume days, put on in the last 90 to 20 minutes or so....
...you are going to have some total losers, but you are going to have some $5, $10, maybe even $20 winners also. Ideal results will depend on getting into as wide a long vertical as you can afford, sometime in the last 1/2 hr or so, and the long strike goes itm while the short strike dies at $0.05. I look for $25 or $20 wide SPX verts - if you hit those right, as you can see, even at expiry those can be worth >$25. One of these days I'm going to hit one of those and turn a $1k bet into $25k+ in 20 minutes or less....Attachment g

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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