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The Swamp

  • #106,001
  • Dec 22, 2022 12:23pm Dec 22, 2022 12:23pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} No Changes to the Fibre short… Dxy couldn’t break and hold below 103.88… 104.58 has always acted more like a slingshot than a wall… If it goes Ill expect dxy to climb quickly to 105.68/106.25… that should coincide with Fibre sliding down below 1.0380 into some decent accumulation zones Commodity currency basket being put on today. I expect them to be resilient against dollar strength
I hope the dow bounces 500/700 before tomorrow's close close, but less than Todays high. So i can short the shit out of it Monday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,002
  • Dec 22, 2022 12:42pm Dec 22, 2022 12:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I hope the dow bounces 500/700 before tomorrow's close close, but less than Todays high. So i can short the shit out of it Monday.
* tried to post a link the the 1974 slasher classic Black Christmas, but it yelled at me*

Then again if we don't get the bounce, or if it engulfs... you know we have the potential to go a LOT higher...
  • #106,003
  • Dec 22, 2022 3:59pm Dec 22, 2022 3:59pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} * tried to post a link the the 1974 slasher classic Black Christmas, but it yelled at me* Then again if we don't get the bounce, or if it engulfs... you know we have the potential to go a LOT higher...
I hope it closes above 33017.x
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,004
  • Dec 22, 2022 4:03pm Dec 22, 2022 4:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I hope it closes above 33017.x {image}
It did slightly. I hope it bounces, but cant get above today's high tomorrow.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,005
  • Dec 22, 2022 6:12pm Dec 22, 2022 6:12pm
Tesla short sellers have collected nearly $14 billion since Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter, making Tesla the most profitable short of 2022

Really hope Elmo buys another company.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #106,006
  • Dec 23, 2022 2:01pm Dec 23, 2022 2:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I hope the dow bounces 500/700 before tomorrow's close close, but less than Todays high. So i can short the shit out of it Monday.
If Dow is unable to climb those 300 points today. It will likely reach back to 32572 the next day. Still time to climb. But if she is failing late. It may be worth a look. If she falls Eu may also test this weeks low again. If today dont get that high, I look for a shorting opportunity.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,007
  • Dec 23, 2022 2:12pm Dec 23, 2022 2:12pm
Quoting longfellow
Tesla short sellers have collected nearly $14 billion since Elon Musk agreed to buy Twitter, making Tesla the most profitable short of 2022 Really hope Elmo buys another company.


Brad is smart enough to know his lane. Musk has not been weaned yet. Henry Ford had the same problem.


“You shouldn't speak until you know what you're talking about. That's why I get uncomfortable with interviews. Reporters ask me what I feel China should do about Tibet. Who cares what I think China should do? I'm a fucking actor! They hand me a script. I act. I'm here for entertainment. Basically, when you whittle everything away, I'm a grown man who puts on makeup.”

― Brad Pitt
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,008
  • Edited 5:22am Dec 26, 2022 5:12am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If Dow is unable to climb those 300 points today. It will likely reach back to 32572 the next day. Still time to climb. But if she is failing late. It may be worth a look. If she falls Eu may also test this weeks low again. If today dont get that high, I look for a shorting opportunity. {image}
A high % of the time when the u.s. 30 can not climb back. The Dow on Monday can re-test Thursday's low. The us 30 did not make that climb. . I dont know if the holiday week's will affect a high % of normal. So take it knowing that. I post this for my Dow trade mostly. As Dow goes (u.s 30) other U.s. equites tend to have a similar down path. As u.s. equites go, other equites often follow that path. Eu and U.S. 30 are usually usd driven. (Stronger usd= weaker equities correlation works often) Stocks down/ eu down. Not always true, but more enough to look for it. So if the U.S30 is falling, the EU may too. Both may have a shot at last Thursday's lows. From there, is open. At least that's the way it looks to me since Friday. 7 days ago before those drops. Both were higher than on Fridays close. A equal size drop, could break down lower than last week's low. The usdx may have a bottom. EU may have a hard time getting to 1.0835 for now, if the usd has a bottom.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,009
  • Dec 26, 2022 5:53am Dec 26, 2022 5:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A high % of the time when the u.s. 30 can not climb back. The Dow on Monday can re-test Thursday's low. The us 30 did not make that climb. . I dont know if the holiday week's will affect a high % of normal. So take it knowing that. I post this for my Dow trade mostly. As Dow goes (u.s 30) other U.s. equites tend to have a similar down path. As u.s. equites go, other equites often follow that path. Eu and U.S. 30 are usually usd driven. (Stronger usd= weaker equities correlation works often) Stocks down/ eu down. Not always true, but more...
The Eu has bottom the past few weeks. The Usd has a bottom the past few weeks. The usd may be setting up a wedge formation for a bounce in the next few weeks, The USD may need to have that drop, to fill in that lower wedge end again. The EU does not show a pretty formation opposite of the one on the usd. That leaves the EU 1.0835 potential still open. The same EU pair with 2 scenarios. With opposite conclusions. Because many want to know what will happen in the next 5 minutes. Both could be right. Fill in the lower usd wedge by rising to eu 1.0805+. Then as the wedge usd bottom is hit. The eu above 1.08.5 may be able to fall. Timing is a bitch. Waiting is a bitch. Being wrong about both is a bitch. But its cheaper than knowing something. And proven wrong with real money. Find something that is lining up today. Is a better option.

EU 1.0805+ and usdx -102.73 may line up later. For a position style trade.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,010
  • Dec 26, 2022 6:37am Dec 26, 2022 6:37am
My targets are close to and somehow confirm yours so I thought it was interesting enough to drop a short post.

Mine are at 1.0802 and 1.0855 and taking the last spike to 1.073x into account it could even go higher but I want to remain conservative and if we reach the first it will be enough for me to close partially my longs.

Didn't make any geometrical analysis, I just trade on the side of actual momentum on H1 and it still says to remain long, it's just costing me some swap.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #106,011
  • Dec 26, 2022 7:10am Dec 26, 2022 7:10am
I put a sell order for EU at 1.0804. Staying away from it otherwise. Currently watching UJ for a short towards 130
  • #106,012
  • Dec 26, 2022 5:08pm Dec 26, 2022 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If Dow is unable to climb those 300 points today. It will likely reach back to 32572 the next day. Still time to climb. But if she is failing late. It may be worth a look. If she falls Eu may also test this weeks low again. If today dont get that high, I look for a shorting opportunity. {image}
The open has a gap up. Not the best sign for a drop. The EU also has a gap up open. This is a holiday week. But most often the odds for the Monday drop is above 90%. For the following Monday. The holiday makes this a Tuesday. Lets see how it plays out. If it keeps with the 90+%. it will be about 730 point drop at open levels.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,013
  • Dec 26, 2022 7:00pm Dec 26, 2022 7:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The open has a gap up. Not the best sign for a drop. The EU also has a gap up open. This is a holiday week. But most often the odds for the Monday drop is above 90%. For the following Monday. The holiday makes this a Tuesday. Lets see how it plays out. If it keeps with the 90+%. it will be about 730 point drop at open levels. {image}
I took a shot..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,014
  • Dec 27, 2022 7:46am Dec 27, 2022 7:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I took a shot.. {image}
it may have started.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,015
  • Dec 27, 2022 7:51am Dec 27, 2022 7:51am
[quote=gatorinla;14266947]{quote} The open has a gap up. Not the best sign for a drop. The EU also has a gap up open. This is a holiday week. But most often the odds for the Monday drop is above 90%. For the following Monday. The holiday makes this a Tuesday. Lets see how it plays out. If it keeps with the 90+%. it will be about 730 point drop at open levels. {image}[/qu
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ote]

In this case it may drop 850ish points.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,016
  • Dec 27, 2022 7:59am Dec 27, 2022 7:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A high % of the time when the u.s. 30 can not climb back. The Dow on Monday can re-test Thursday's low. The us 30 did not make that climb. . I dont know if the holiday week's will affect a high % of normal. So take it knowing that. I post this for my Dow trade mostly. As Dow goes (u.s 30) other U.s. equites tend to have a similar down path. As u.s. equites go, other equites often follow that path. Eu and U.S. 30 are usually usd driven. (Stronger usd= weaker equities correlation works often) Stocks down/ eu down. Not always true, but more...
drop that ass.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,017
  • Dec 27, 2022 8:10am Dec 27, 2022 8:10am
gap filled.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,018
  • Dec 27, 2022 8:16am Dec 27, 2022 8:16am
eu close an h below 0623 may aid a drop
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,019
  • Dec 27, 2022 3:42pm Dec 27, 2022 3:42pm
[quote=gatorinla;14267526]
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The open has a gap up. Not the best sign for a drop. The EU also has a gap up open. This is a holiday week. But most often the odds for the Monday drop is above 90%. For the following Monday. The holiday makes this a Tuesday. Lets see how it plays out. If it keeps with the 90+%. it will be about 730 point drop at open levels. {image}[/qu{image}ote] In this case it may drop 850ish points.
The holiday week, and a large gap open. May have hurt this. The last one a few weeks back. I netted over 400 points. This one I had moved my stops down and only got 40. This is a Monday trade. But since Monday was closed, I carried it into Tuesday. I still want to see how it ends up.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,020
  • Dec 28, 2022 5:55am Dec 28, 2022 5:55am
since it hasn't run to 1.0805. It may find a bowel of Wheaties at or below 1.0560. I will wait for it, or 1.0805 next. The 12 h closed below 1.0639. That got my attention a little. Its not big, but there is a algo at 0560. It may be a ideal spot to head fake. 1.0560/slip. Ideal in its free to not get it triggered, making it free. Or better for a run to 1.08 in pip count. Not that its a short trade it. I'm not calling it a short. Pa above 1.0639 is bullish to me. I think its going to 1.0805 or more. But there is always the chance it tries to shake people out first.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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