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USDCAD - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the fifth upward wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the wave (3) of 5 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the wave 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has ended, and the local correction ii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3380.
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EURUSD - Low gas price in the EU supports the euro

Thus, according to data from the TTF exchange, the price for gas contracts with delivery in February is now 1120.0 dollars per 1.0K cubic meters, which was last observed in June, when the Nord Stream gas pipeline maintained maximum pumping levels. The current low quotations provide an opportunity for countries in the region to conclude long-term deals for supplies in the spring, as the storage facilities are almost full now. Meanwhile, in November, the German producer price index lost 3.9%, which led to a slowdown in growth to 28.2% YoY from 34.5% earlier. On the daily chart, the trading instrument continues its corrective growth and confidently holds in the local ascending corridor. Technical indicators point to continued growth.

Resistance levels: 1.0675, 1.09 | Support levels: 1.0525, 1.032
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AUDUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) formed, a downward correction ended as the second wave (2), and the third wave (3) develops, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the wave (iii) of i has formed, and a local correction has ended as the wave (iv) of i.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will grow within the wave (v) of i to the area of 0.7040 – 0.7142. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6584.
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NZDUSD - The price is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) formed, a downward correction ended as the wave (B), and the wave (C) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (C) has formed and a local correction has started to develop as the second wave ii of 1 of (C).

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.6008 – 0.5890. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6515.
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EURUSD breaches the minor resistance

The EURUSD pair begins today with new positivity to breach the resistance that appears on the chart and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend, opening the way to head towards our waited target at 1.0745. The EMA50 and stochastic provide positive signals that support the expected rise, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.0580. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0570 support and 1.0745 resistance.
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NZDUSD Faces Solid Support

The NZDUSD pair touched 0.6275 level and found solid support there, to show some bullish bias and retest the broken neckline of the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart, waiting to resume the negative trades to break the mentioned level and head towards 0.6130 as a next target. Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.6385 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6250 support and 0.6365 resistance

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair tests 1.2135 level and still below it, and the contradiction between the technical indicators still valid, to continue with our neutrality until the price confirms its situation according to the mentioned level followed by detecting its next destination clearly. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2050 support and 1.2230 resistance.

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ADAUSD - Under pressure from general market negative factors

Last week, the US regulator confirmed the need to continue raising the interest rate and keep it at high levels until at least 2024: investors' expectations for softening hawkish rhetoric did not materialize, and the dollar resumed strengthening against alternative assets. The consequences of the cessation of FTX are expressed, first of all, in the loss of confidence on the part of traders: by the middle of this month, 200.0K BTC worth about 3.4B dollars were withdrawn from the market, not counting other tokens, and soon this process is more likely everything will continue. Also, many cryptocurrency companies associated with the platform are experiencing problems: for example, market maker Auros announced restructuring its activities due to the company losing access to 20.0M dollars blocked on the bankrupt crypto exchange. According to Coinbase's Cryptocurrency Market Outlook 2023 report, market conditions will continue to push investors to leave altcoins for safer currencies – BTC and ETH, and the price of ADA will remain under pressure in the medium term. The trading instrument is moving within the long-term downward channel. Consolidation of the price below 0.2441 (Murrey levels [2/8]) will give the prospect of further decline to 0.2197 (Murrey levels [1/8]) and 0.1953 (Murrey levels [0/8]). The key "bullish" seems to be 0.2929 (Murrey levels [4/8], middle line of Bollinger bands). Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 0.3173 (Murrey levels [5/8]) and 0.3418 (Murrey levels [6/8], the upper limit of the downward channel).

Resistance levels: 0.2929, 0.3173, 0.3418 | Support levels: 0.2441, 0.2197, 0.1953

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Crude Oil - Oil reserves in the USA have sharply decreased again

According to October statistics, the USA holds the lead with 11.971M barrels of oil, Saudi Arabia is in second place with 10.957M barrels, and Russia is in third place, which has significantly reduced production levels, which amounted to 10.66M barrels and is still higher than the 10.599M barrels recorded in August. During the period from January to October, energy production in the Russian Federation managed to increase by 2.4% from last year's figure to 443.2M barrels.
At the same time, oil reserves in the US strategic reserve continue to decline rapidly: last week the indicator adjusted by -3.6M barrels, amounting to 378.6M barrels, which is the lowest value since 1983. In addition, the US Department of Energy announced that in order to replenish the volumes put on the market, the purchase of energy will begin, and the first batch of 3.0M barrels will be delivered in February 2023. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within a descending corridor, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators hold the sell signal, which has weakened somewhat recently

Support levels: 81.20, 75.80 | Resistance levels: 84.6, 89.4

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USDTRY - CBRT Leaves Rates Unchanged

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced its final rate decision of 2022 today at 11:00 am GMT. Market expected the main one-week repo rate to be left unchanged at 9.00%. Those expectations were met with the Bank leaving interest rates unchanged. This comes after 4 straight rate cuts at previous meetings. CBRT sees current rate levels as adequate.

As such decision was expected, market reaction was minor. EURTRY moved lower in a knee-jerk move but has recovered initial losses and now trades a touch above pre-decision levels.

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair faced negative pressure yesterday to attack 1.0580 level but it keeps its stability above it, and begins today with new bullish bias motivated by stochastic positivity, waiting to head towards our main expected target at 1.0745. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain active as long as 1.0580 level remains intact. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0550 support and 1.0710 resistance.

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USDJPY - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 ended, and a downward correction forms as the fourth wave 4, within which the wave of the lower level a of 4 develops. Now, the wave (v) of a is developing, within which the wave v of (v) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the USDJPY pair will fall to the area of 127.36 – 121.67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 138.


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AUDUSD - US economy grew by 3.2% in the third quarter

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of a meeting on monetary policy, in which the head of the department, Philip Lowe, explained why the interest rate was raised not by 50.0 basis points but by 25.0 basis points. Officials looked at two priorities, cost control and household resilience, and concluded that despite high inflation, increasing the rate by 50.0 basis points was inappropriate as it would create additional credit pressure on households.
The key event last night was the data on US gross domestic product (GDP): Q3 figure rose by 3.2% after rising by 2.9% earlier. The upward trend was supported by a stable volume of business investment and an increase in consumer spending due to funds accumulated during the coronavirus epidemic. Against this background, the national currency regained some lost positions and consolidated above 104.000 in the USD Index. Also, statistics on initial jobless claims were released: the value, as predicted, was worse than the previous one, showing 216.0K claims against 214.0K a week earlier. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving below the support line of the local rising channel. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and give a signal to start selling.

Resistance levels: 0.675, 0.688 | Support levels: 0.66, 0.643

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XAUUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, within which the wave v of 1 has ended, and a local correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1719.70 – 1695.85. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1824.
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USDCAD - The price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the upward fifth wave of the higher level 5 and the wave (3) of 5 develop. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (3) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the fourth wave 4 of (3), and the wave 5 of (5) is developing, within which the wave i of 5 has formed, and the local correction ii of 5 has ended.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the USDCAD pair will grow to the area of 1.3978 – 1.45. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3466.

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USDCHF - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the upward first wave (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the second wave (2) of 3. Now, the wave C of (2) has ended, and the upward wave (3) of 3 is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will grow to the area of 0.9900 – 1.0151. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9205.
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USDTRY - Turkish authorities intend to prevent currency fluctuations in the last week of the year

Last week, the main financial regulator of the Republic of Turkey sent out notices to commercial banks asking them to refrain from buying large amounts of US currency for their corporate clients so as not to provoke an increase in the USDTRY pair before the new year. Since the beginning of autumn, the agency has already artificially limited foreign exchange operations several times, focusing on the priorities set by the country's leadership, which believes that only loose monetary policy can lead to economic growth and record inflation is only a temporary problem that will be resolved along with the macroeconomic recovery indicators.

Meanwhile, Turkey is still pursuing its attempts to take a central place in the energy agenda of the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, and the Middle East and reduce its dependence on the supply of resources from outside. Last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of a new gas field in the Black Sea, whose reserves are estimated at 58.0B cubic meters, and the total cost is 1.0T dollars. The total gas volume in Turkish territorial waters has risen to 710.0B cubic meters. On the four-hour chart, the quotes of the USDTRY pair are moving within the next wave of the global side corridor. Technical indicators continue to hold a stable buy signal.

Support levels: 18.68, 18.62 | Resistance levels: 18.74, 18.785
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EURUSD keeps its positive stability

The EURUSD pair fluctuates within sideways trades since yesterday, keeping its stability above 1.0580 level, to keep the bullish trend scenario valid for the upcoming period, supported by stochastic move at the oversold areas, waiting to visit 1.0745 as a main target. We remind you that breaking 1.0580 will press on the price to test the most important support at 1.0515 before any new positive attempt. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0560 support and 1.0710 resistance.

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CAC 40 - Bond growth is the main factor in the correction of index quotes

Thus, the popular 10-year notes are traded at a rate of 3.046%, which exceeds the October year's high of 2.998%, while the conservative 20-year notes are traded at 3.317% while yielding the peak value of 3.420%. The global 30-year bonds' yield is at 3.219% compared to 3.290% in October. Although the values have not yet reached highs, the situation in the global economy and the gradual approach of a recession will most likely support their positions further, provoking a decrease in investment demand for high-risk shares of companies. On the daily chart, CAC 40 quotes continue to trade within the global Expanding formation pattern and are currently developing a new wave of decline. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new sell signal.

Support levels: 6370, 6170 | Resistance levels: 6580, 6810
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XAUUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum, and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, within which the wave v of 1 has ended, and a local correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will fall to the area of 1726.2 – 1699.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1833.20.

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