Hedging/averaging trades without prediction | Page 85 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mathematical hedging strategy without a stop loss 22 replies

'Averaging Down Is for Losers' - valid or not? 27 replies

Fast Averaging versus Slow Averaging 1 reply

Averaging 7 replies

Martigale and Averaging Down 4 replies

Attachments: Hedging/averaging trades without prediction
Exit Attachments

Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #1,681
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:24am Dec 15, 2022 6:24am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I was wrong. Will wait until 1.2278 to buy.
The rate announcements for the US and GB return to the status quo, common sense says the pair goes back to the pre-run up level. Since it is FOREX, well we watch the MM's do their thing!

I do believe there will be an opportunity to short this pair soon!
  • #1,682
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:45am Dec 15, 2022 6:45am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Add on news liquidity sweep below. Trying luck buying at discount.{image}
GU

Taking out some weak position.
Leaving strong position open.
Moved stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 054.jpg Size: 238 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,683
  • Dec 15, 2022 7:21am Dec 15, 2022 7:21am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Whale. You chart is 5 step ahead of me. I only draw two step ahead ( projection). With BoE Interest Rate, they ( IT) may just want to buy cheap chaep (discount) and sell it expensive later ( on the news). Here's my newbie chart.{image}
Thanks Pat
Lou Vincii Code
  • #1,684
  • Edited 8:00am Dec 15, 2022 7:46am | Edited 8:00am
to me it is obvious that the market will bottom and then go up, but what does that have to do with the thread title "hedging/averaging trades without prediction"?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #1,685
  • Dec 15, 2022 8:07am Dec 15, 2022 8:07am
Quoting birdland
to me it is obvious that the market will bottom and then go up, but what does that have to do with the thread title "hedging/averaging trades without prediction"?
Well, you know, it's like you have a pet. You keep it on a leash and drag it around with you. Can't help it.
1.02^200
  • #1,686
  • Dec 15, 2022 9:39am Dec 15, 2022 9:39am
Since thread is kinda quiet, info for you my friends. Positions are almost changed. Be ready to buy on low. If price stabilize itself in few minutes, we can go for it. Sadly my analysis is a bit restricted as I am on the phone with no access to PC.

Wish I could give you exact level to buy but sadly I can't. I'm sure you guys can achieve it.

Happy trading!

SF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20221215-163718.png Size: 52 KB
  • #1,687
  • Dec 15, 2022 9:43am Dec 15, 2022 9:43am
Quoting SilentFather
Since thread is kinda quiet, info for you my friends. Positions are almost changed. Be ready to buy on low. If price stabilize itself in few minutes, we can go for it. Sadly my analysis is a bit restricted as I am on the phone with no access to PC. Wish I could give you exact level to buy but sadly I can't. I'm sure you guys can achieve it. Happy trading! SF {image}
I think 1.2222 should be fine to buy from.
Please which indicator shows the short/long on your phone?
  • #1,688
  • Dec 15, 2022 9:51am Dec 15, 2022 9:51am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I think 1.2222 should be fine to buy from. Please which indicator shows the short/long on your phone?
Highly positive. Remember we will see price BELOW the last low on m1 TF before going up. Sentiment is from myfxbook. Updated once a hour.

SF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20221215-165018.png Size: 80 KB
  • #1,689
  • Dec 15, 2022 10:21am Dec 15, 2022 10:21am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} Highly positive. Remember we will see price BELOW the last low on m1 TF before going up. Sentiment is from myfxbook. Updated once a hour. SF {image}
Thanks so much sir.
  • #1,690
  • Dec 15, 2022 10:46am Dec 15, 2022 10:46am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Thanks so much sir.
No problem. I'm here to help. Always willing & always for free. :'D

Be careful. I should had explained that when sentiment is changing, you cannot buy or sell immediately. You will have to deal with even 60 pips drawdown. Always check for extreme low (or high if more people buy of course...). You can go from H4 to H1 and then 30m & 5m and 1m, as you feel comfortable with.

You can see that 1 minute chart is broken and we see no sign of reversal. This is because sentiment didn't changed fully for now. And even if it does, price can go even lower than expected. However with all of above applied, you should be good to go. Also remember you can hedge. Nothing bad will happen to you, if you are against majority. (If you hedge). Also remember you will need to close trade against the trend. Your long-term trade should always be against sentiment.

:o)


SF
  • #1,691
  • Dec 15, 2022 10:56am Dec 15, 2022 10:56am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} No problem. I'm here to help. Always willing & always for free. :'D Be careful. I should had explained that when sentiment is changing, you cannot buy or sell immediately. You will have to deal with even 60 pips drawdown. Always check for extreme low (or high if more people buy of course...). You can go from H4 to H1 and then 30m & 5m and 1m, as you feel comfortable with. You can see that 1 minute chart is broken and we see no sign of reversal. This is because sentiment didn't changed fully for now. And even if it does, price can go even...
Wow! This is very very insightful.
Thanks for enlightening me sir. This is really good information. I am grateful sir.
  • #1,692
  • Dec 15, 2022 11:06am Dec 15, 2022 11:06am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} No problem. I'm here to help. Always willing & always for free. :'D Be careful. I should had explained that when sentiment is changing, you cannot buy or sell immediately. You will have to deal with even 60 pips drawdown. Always check for extreme low (or high if more people buy of course...). You can go from H4 to H1 and then 30m & 5m and 1m, as you feel comfortable with. You can see that 1 minute chart is broken and we see no sign of reversal. This is because sentiment didn't changed fully for now. And even if it does, price can go even...
We'll catch the low SF, no worries, just need to find the right TF.
1.02^200
  • #1,693
  • Dec 15, 2022 11:32am Dec 15, 2022 11:32am
Quoting d5400
{quote} We'll catch the low SF, no worries, just need to find the right TF.
That's exactly right!
  • #1,694
  • Dec 15, 2022 11:35am Dec 15, 2022 11:35am
Can you guess where the price was? I think you can paint price chart with order lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 16 KB
1.02^200
  • #1,695
  • Dec 15, 2022 11:38am Dec 15, 2022 11:38am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} That's exactly right!
Sir,
after the sentiment changes, does it now mean that the coming weeks will be bullish?
  • #1,696
  • Dec 15, 2022 12:29pm Dec 15, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Sir, after the sentiment changes, does it now mean that the coming weeks will be bullish?
When price is bullish for long timeframe, most people SELL. Price starts going down, people will start BUYING. So, sentiment changes from sell to buy. We can buy WITH majority. They are right when sentiment changes. They really catch low & high. But in this example, price will go UP and people instead of longing, starts to sell. And we will hold the buy.

You need to understand that price will have to change its direction. It can happen price will go down again. You can take a loss. But when trend is established, you will be able to get long term trade AGAINST the sentiment.

As you can see on the picture, when sentiment changes, it does NOT mean price will have trend against majority immediately. Sometimes we will to buy with them & sometimes we sell.

You need to use stoploss or hedge. As you can see, people are right WHEN SENTIMENT CHANGES. BUT IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR TREND TO BE ESTABLISHED.

ALWAYS USE PRICE ACTION ON HIGHER TF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20221215-192217.png Size: 89 KB


As you can see GBP/USD right now... We will have move up sooner or later... just find good support... H4 or daily chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20221215-192816.png Size: 60 KB

SF
  • #1,697
  • Dec 15, 2022 1:14pm Dec 15, 2022 1:14pm
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} When price is bullish for long timeframe, most people SELL. Price starts going down, people will start BUYING. So, sentiment changes from sell to buy. We can buy WITH majority. They are right when sentiment changes. They really catch low & high. But in this example, price will go UP and people instead of longing, starts to sell. And we will hold the buy. You need to understand that price will have to change its direction. It can happen price will go down again. You can take a loss. But when trend is established, you will be able to get long...
Sir,
you have opened my eyes to something I never might have figured out by myself. I truly am grateful sir.

Thank you.
  • #1,698
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:29pm Dec 15, 2022 2:29pm
Huge moves these past couple of days. Hope my hedgehog friends covered their positions and protected their capital. I have a 2;1 ratio of drawdown and banked £ so ok but only because I was 1:1 leverage.

See you next week, no predicting. Just
  • #1,699
  • Dec 15, 2022 2:35pm Dec 15, 2022 2:35pm
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} When price is bullish for long timeframe, most people SELL. Price starts going down, people will start BUYING. So, sentiment changes from sell to buy. We can buy WITH majority. They are right when sentiment changes. They really catch low & high. But in this example, price will go UP and people instead of longing, starts to sell. And we will hold the buy. You need to understand that price will have to change its direction. It can happen price will go down again. You can take a loss. But when trend is established, you will be able to get long...
This is super interesting. I'm looking at the Myfxbook Sentiment tool now and colour me surprised. Do share with us more insights on how you use this tool.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
  • #1,700
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:28pm Dec 15, 2022 5:28pm
Let me use this opportunity to again say a big thank you to SILENTFATHER who shared a very great trading method with us at completely no cost. Thank you so much sir.
The first bullish H4 candle has been seen since the change in sentiment. Using my VAP method, you can buy at 1.2172 (kindly include space for spread).

Thanks again sir.
3 traders viewing now