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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #1,661
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:48am Dec 15, 2022 3:48am
Quoting Whale
my simple plan.. another last swing high (hope today) before the fall {image}
Thanks Whale.

You chart is 5 step ahead of me.
I only draw two step ahead ( projection).

With BoE Interest Rate, they ( IT) may just want to buy cheap chaep (discount) and sell it expensive later ( on the news).
Here's my newbie chart.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,662
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:51am Dec 15, 2022 3:51am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU Everyday, when opening up the chart, I will be looking for possible LQ zone. Trying to read MM next moves for LQ clear out. I don't really play according to market direction, but am interested on LQ. LQ fueled yesterday moves on US CPI Data release. I realise MM and institutional player do have deep pocket to push price to LQ zone.{image}
I'm making money with you keep it bro
  • #1,663
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:52am Dec 15, 2022 3:52am
Quoting Pat Chiko
GU Scalp long to SRF zone.{image}
GU

Scalping target.
What's next ?.
Are they trying to get more order to built up for later trade, or consolidation mode with high volume changing hand.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,664
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:55am Dec 15, 2022 3:55am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Whale. You chart is 5 step ahead of me. I only draw two step ahead ( projection). With BoE Interest Rate, they ( IT) may just want to buy cheap chaep (discount) and sell it expensive later ( on the news). Here's my newbie chart.{image}
Pat, i wish to had one step of yours


I scratched on my chart again and again every $ucking swing H/L
not an easy PA on 4h/daily (for me)
  • #1,665
  • Dec 15, 2022 3:55am Dec 15, 2022 3:55am
Quoting Romero666706
{quote} I'm making money with you keep it bro
Making money is easy.
The main question is can we make it consistence ?.
Are we strong enough to take up losses ( painful) but not many want to take loss ( some even moved their SL & hope for reversal)

If you follow me, be prepare to take losses...
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,666
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:05am Dec 15, 2022 4:05am
Quoting Whale
{quote} Pat, i wish to had one step of yours I scratched on my chart again and again every $ucking swing H/L not an easy PA on 4h/daily (for me)
H4 structure remain intact.

Want to see next few hours, if they (IT) want to pick up LQ at the bottom to fuel their trade.

I wait a bit to enter.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,667
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:11am Dec 15, 2022 4:11am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} H4 structure remain intact. Want to see next few hours, if they (IT) want to pick up LQ at the bottom to fuel their trade. I wait a bit to enter.{image}
The sideways motion right now appears to suggest that the MM's might take a run at the LQ you pointed out.
  • #1,668
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:18am Dec 15, 2022 4:18am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} H4 structure remain intact. Want to see next few hours, if they (IT) want to pick up LQ at the bottom to fuel their trade. I wait a bit to enter.{image}
GU

I trade based on Structure, then LQ.

Still want to see how IT will play this out.
Trick more seller to commit to short ? and push price higher

OR going sideway , then short all the way down to take out LQ.

As long a H4 structure intact, I will go for the first option.
Now waititng mode, see how it going to play out
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,669
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:19am Dec 15, 2022 4:19am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} H4 structure remain intact. Want to see next few hours, if they (IT) want to pick up LQ at the bottom to fuel their trade. I wait a bit to enter.{image}
my map ATM
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  • #1,670
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:23am Dec 15, 2022 4:23am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU I trade based on Structure, then LQ. Still want to see how IT will play this out. Trick more seller to commit to short ? and push price higher OR going sideway , then short all the way down to take out LQ. As long a H4 structure intact, I will go for the first option. Now waititng mode, see how it going to play out{image}
They are still shorting, bias is buy. We can see positions are almost 50/50. If we manage to get above 50% buyers, price will go down a bit more and then reverse so we can buy with them. In ideal world, we would hold the buy and they will start selling again. This way we could catch some big moves up again.

Let's see how this plays out.

SF
  • #1,671
  • Edited 6:26pm Dec 15, 2022 4:28am | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} Didn't get a chance to hedge with TP?
Initially I was hedging and taking profit with GBPUSD buy trades, but I decided that I wanted to see if I could solely average out of the EURUSD sell basket during a runaway trend. This seems to be the biggest fear of using non-directional based averaging/hedging as a tool. What I'm thinking (and actually doing, lol) is to "stack and roll" the sell trades, i.e. the "stack" is placing pending sell orders below the current price at price points where there are already existing open sell trades. IF the market retraces, the pending orders will get hit leading to a higher BE average price. Currently, all open sell trades and pending orders are stacked at 25 pip intervals (010, 035, 060, 085). The "roll" is that whenever the market moves 25 pips against the closest open sell trade, then a new pending sell order is placed at the price of that closest open trade. I'm also toying with the idea of including TP on these stacked sell trades so that whenever price oscillates within let's say a 100 pip range, then any sell trade opened within that range can hit a 25-50 pip TP as the market retraces to the lower part of the range, and then new pending sell orders will be placed as the market rolls to the top of the range- basically range trading. One problem with the "roll" idea is that taking TPs will lower the BE average price for the sell basket.

Of course, the downside is if the market continues to move against the basket. But hey that's the risk you take to test ideas and it's why you trade a live small-size account in order to those test ideas.
  • #1,672
  • Edited 6:15am Dec 15, 2022 4:31am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I think this mini rally will end around the level you wrote (actually 1.2339) then we should sell back to 1.2278 region.
I think we might see 1.2389
I interpreted this wrongly.
I will now buy if price gets to 1.2278
  • #1,673
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:35am Dec 15, 2022 4:35am
DXY

Weak structure.
Price BO and now RT the zone.
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  • #1,674
  • Dec 15, 2022 4:48am Dec 15, 2022 4:48am
News in few.

UK Inflation Falls From 41-Year High in Run-Up to Boe Rate Decision.
The Bank of England is widely expected to announce a hike of 50bps

Level to watch
The 1.2500 and 1.2600 round figures may test the upward momentum if the price continues stronger after 1.2475 before steering the bulls toward May’s top of 1.2666.

The GBP/USD bulls are losing speed, although the bears want confirmation from 1.2310.
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I come from the future.
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  • #1,675
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:08am Dec 15, 2022 5:08am
GU

Scalp LONG
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  • #1,676
  • Dec 15, 2022 5:54am Dec 15, 2022 5:54am
Quoting Pat Chiko
GU Scalp LONG{image}
GU

One spike on the news please.............

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Hope got luck,,,,,
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,677
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:00am Dec 15, 2022 6:00am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU One spike on the news please............. {image}Hope got luck,,,,,
Highly correct. Be careful, might spike down and then up. I'm 90% sure it will happen. We can see almost a reversal (SELLERS -> BUYERS)

This means only one thing. We can buy somewhere on the low if more people starts buying since they WILL catch the bottom. But after move up they will start selling again, and we will HOLD.

SF.
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  • #1,678
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:17am Dec 15, 2022 6:17am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU One spike on the news please............. {image}Hope got luck,,,,,
GU

Add on news liquidity sweep below.
Trying luck buying at discount.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,679
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:19am Dec 15, 2022 6:19am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I think we might see 1.2389 I interpreted this wrongly. I will now buy if price gets to 1.2278
I was wrong.
Will wait until 1.2278 to buy.
  • #1,680
  • Dec 15, 2022 6:23am Dec 15, 2022 6:23am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} Highly correct. Be careful, might spike down and then up. I'm 90% sure it will happen. We can see almost a reversal (SELLERS -> BUYERS) This means only one thing. We can buy somewhere on the low if more people starts buying since they WILL catch the bottom. But after move up they will start selling again, and we will HOLD. SF. {image}
As said.... It happened... I also bought for fun, however as I'm driving right now, I entered at awful / disgusting price. Good thing to know, if you are sure what is happening, stop going crazy. Or don't go crazy at all. Few years back, I would close this in loss, because I was unsure if I'm on the right side of the market.

I however still believe price will go even lower. As I am still testing something, I'm unable to tell right now. :/
Happy trading guys. Hope everyone is going good. We all post very good info. So use it with caution and be good.

SF
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