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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #1,541
  • Dec 11, 2022 12:48pm Dec 11, 2022 12:48pm
Quoting Mr.Moe
{quote} Check my earlier posts. With this style of trading I start woth random entries! One buy and one sell at the same time and then off we go. And Iam bot the obly one who is doin it this way.
Thank you for your answer! What about your exits? Also without looking at price at all? And how do you use time and frequency of opening trades? I guess that you don't buy and sell at every tick no matter the time, even at rollover or even when price barely moves I guess you don't buy and sell at or around the same price over and over again, or do you as long as your random generator tell you to? Sorry for the questions. Just so interesting !!!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,542
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:01pm Dec 11, 2022 1:01pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} If averaging why find the bottom and also, how do we know when the market has hit a bottom?, thanks for your reply in advance...
Hello. I like to believe the market is most weak when it is flat. How does one ifentify a flat market? Well look at the cluster if say 20 candles on any TF, in my case 1m, and if you notice the avg high and low of those candles is less than .1% you are assured that the market isn't going to spike. Once you have a 1m candle which closes with a high and low of anything greater than .5% or higher, I then go to looking for my position.
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Threesome Daddy
  • #1,543
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:07pm Dec 11, 2022 1:07pm
Quoting SingaRich
{quote} Hello. I like to believe the market is most weak when it is flat. How does one ifentify a flat market? Well look at the cluster if say 20 candles on any TF, in my case 1m, and if you notice the avg high and low of those candles is less than .1% you are assured that the market isn't going to spike. Once you have a 1m candle which closes with a high and low of anything greater than .5% or higher, I then go to looking for my position. {image}
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't you trying to predict the market and how are you using hedging and averaging to help you reduce DD and make profit ...cheers
  • #1,544
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:21pm Dec 11, 2022 1:21pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't you trying to predict the market and how are you using hedging and averaging to help you reduce DD and make profit ...cheers
Hedging is used to lock in profits or losses without having to close the original order. This of course could be used during high volitiality moments to avoid losing profits or further losses.

Dca is more like lotto trading and doesn't involve skill at all. You actually would neee deep pockets ane even have to use martingale money management in order to help you weigh your avg price.

Quoting PippityPips
Is there anyone actually making consistent profits with this style itt? I’m sure it’s possible. I have an idea I want to try on demo which involves hedging…. The problems is, at some point you have to pull the trigger: bite the bullet and close one. At that moment you are in effect entering a trade so I think to myself maybe the whole idea is redundant because I am still ultimately choosing a direction.
Hedging makes 0 profits as it is a toól used to minimize risk

Dollar cost avg in a bear market will cost you a lit of time and good nights sleep. A youtube Influencer c alled GEORGE STARted a DCA account YTD he is down over 70%
Threesome Daddy
  • #1,545
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:39pm Dec 11, 2022 1:39pm
Quoting SingaRich
{quote} Hedging is used to lock in profits or losses without having to close the original order. This of course could be used during high volitiality moments to avoid losing profits or further losses. Dca is more like lotto trading and doesn't involve skill at all. You actually would neee deep pockets ane even have to use martingale money management in order to help you weigh your avg price. {quote} Hedging makes 0 profits as it is a toól used to minimize risk Dollar cost avg in a bear market will cost you a lit of time and good nights sleep. A...
When you refer to "doesn't involve skill" are you saying "not predicting" if so you are right, however it does take skill to turn losing positions into profit...
  • #1,546
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:52pm Dec 11, 2022 1:52pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I think see where you are coming from, as I don't use charts I don't know what's high or low and don't want to know as it will give me bias which I steer away from, eg if on a roulette table it comes up black 20 times in a row how many would think it's got to be red this time but it has the same chance of being red as it is black, that's my thinking ...
Hey Rob, what do you use to trade without charts? Or do you just blank out your MT4 charts?
1.02^200
  • #1,547
  • Dec 11, 2022 1:59pm Dec 11, 2022 1:59pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} Hey Rob, what do you use to trade without charts? Or do you just blank out your MT4 charts?
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  • #1,548
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:05pm Dec 11, 2022 2:05pm
Quoting Isabella_D
Hedge is not only a way out of (selfmade) pressure situations, but also to equalize different levels (tf, exaggerated news, unusual swings in underlyings) thank you for opening thread.
plus it is a tool to amplify profits . . after long swing position
each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
  • #1,549
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:12pm Dec 11, 2022 2:12pm
Quoting Macd-rsi
{quote} plus it is a tool to amplify profits . . after long swing position
It could also be a fantastic way to limit losses without stop losses that can be hunted if you had an EA that allowed you to trail price! If anyone finds such a beast, please share!
  • #1,550
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:14pm Dec 11, 2022 2:14pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} It could also be a fantastic way to limit losses without stop losses that can be hunted if you had an EA that allowed you to trail price! If anyone finds such a beast, please share!
what I am practicing, when my position wins for example 750 pips (after a swing of 750 pips) I use repetitive hedge many times, to make profits 1200 pips (even though the pair itself max move was only 770 pips for example)

and in this way, my SL is just to lose 100 pips out of my 750 pips , if it goes in wrong direction . . then stop entire process . . since hedged position is double lots of original position . .
each day 10%,,,, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/1371538
  • #1,551
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:20pm Dec 11, 2022 2:20pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} {image}
So do you see individual trades, or just whole position with average price?
1.02^200
  • #1,552
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:24pm Dec 11, 2022 2:24pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} So do you see individual trades, or just whole position with average price?
....can use both but mostly average price (aggregate) then close when in profit
  • #1,553
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:32pm Dec 11, 2022 2:32pm
Quoting Macd-rsi
{quote} what I am practicing, when my position wins for example 750 pips (after a swing of 750 pips) I use repetitive hedge many times, to make profits 1200 pips (even though the pair itself max move was only 770 pips for example) and in this way, my SL is just to lose 100 pips out of my 750 pips , if it goes in wrong direction . . then stop entire process . . since hedged position is double lots of original position . .
Impactful and beautiful diversification ! Of course, timing is key ! Nice share mate !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,554
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:34pm Dec 11, 2022 2:34pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Thank you for your answer! What about your exits? Also without looking at price at all? And how do you use time and frequency of opening trades? I guess that you don't buy and sell at every tick no matter the time, even at rollover or even when price barely moves I guess you don't buy and sell at or around the same price over and over again, or do you as long as your random generator tell you to? Sorry for the questions. Just so interesting !!!
I start around Frankfurt open. Trigger my trades and have an initial TP of 5 pips, no SL. When my TP gets hit I enter a new position in that direction, again with 5 pip TP. Depending on how far the other position is in DD I then mostly start to enter a average trade. Mostly when it ist around 15 to 20 Pips minus.
I want to be pretty much out of the market around noon and thats where my average party starts. Mostly around that time, my pairs start to range and I dry to load as much average trades up I need to end the session green. Of course Iam closing a big bunch of loser trades but overal Iam green.
That works for me so far.
  • #1,555
  • Dec 11, 2022 2:39pm Dec 11, 2022 2:39pm
Quoting Mr.Moe
{quote} I start around Frankfurt open. Trigger my trades and have an initial TP of 5 pips, no SL. When my TP gets hit I enter a new position in that direction, again with 5 pip TP. Depending on how far the other position is in DD I then mostly start to enter a average trade. Mostly when it ist around 15 to 20 Pips minus. I want to be pretty much out of the market around noon and thats where my average party starts. Mostly around that time, my pairs start to range and I dry to load as much average trades up I need to end the session green. Of course...
Thanks a lot ! And very very well done !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,556
  • Dec 11, 2022 3:34pm Dec 11, 2022 3:34pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
TRADE 1 and 2, went LONG and SHORT waited 5 mins and both tp's were hit, if only one of the tp's was hit I would have put the same trade on the one that was hit and then waited another 5 mins. TRADE 3 went SHORT was preparing to go SHORT again no sl no tp 20 pipis away from original SHORT and would have also place LONG no sl +2 tp, but it did go in my favour and hit original tp
while I’m not new to trading, I’ve never hedged before.

I just can’t get my head round how you can have two simultaneous trades and tp on both unless at some point you choose a direction (effectively entering a normal unhedged trade).

I may very well be too stupid to grasp this. So be it.
  • #1,557
  • Dec 11, 2022 3:40pm Dec 11, 2022 3:40pm
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} while I’m not new to trading, I’ve never hedged before. I just can’t get my head round how you can have two simultaneous trades and tp on both unless at some point you choose a direction (effectively entering a normal unhedged trade). I may very well be too stupid to grasp this. So be it.
Essentially the two opposing trades limit your loss in stage 1. In stage 2 you come up with a strategy to enter a new profitable trade. In stage 3 you figure out the most profitable way to exit the two opposing trades.
  • #1,558
  • Dec 11, 2022 3:49pm Dec 11, 2022 3:49pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Essentially the two opposing trades limit your loss in stage 1. In stage 2 you come up with a strategy to enter a new profitable trade. In stage 3 you figure out the most profitable way to exit the two opposing trades.
this is what I mean, why not just skip to stage 2 from the start?

it seems like this is a way for people to ‘always be in a trade’ addicted to trading sort of thing.
So you can’t not have a trade on, so enter both directions and figure it out later… no?
  • #1,559
  • Dec 11, 2022 3:58pm Dec 11, 2022 3:58pm
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} this is what I mean, why not just skip to stage 2 from the start? it seems like this is a way for people to ‘always be in a trade’ addicted to trading sort of thing. So you can’t not have a trade on, so enter both directions and figure it out later… no?
You don't have to go LONG and SHORT at the same time, you can pick a direction or just flip a coin, then if trade goes into loss use hedging and averaging to get back in to profit
  • #1,560
  • Dec 11, 2022 4:00pm Dec 11, 2022 4:00pm
Quoting PippityPips
{quote} this is what I mean, why not just skip to stage 2 from the start? it seems like this is a way for people to ‘always be in a trade’ addicted to trading sort of thing. So you can’t not have a trade on, so enter both directions and figure it out later… no?
If your hedging transaction is a limit order that gets entered into if the market reverses it essentially permits you a stop loss that won't get stop hunted thus essentially protecting the original trade. In this case the market reverses from the stop hunt and the profitable trade that you would not have otherwise had appears !
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