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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,901
  • Edited 6:54am Nov 14, 2022 6:35am | Edited 6:54am
Couple of trades..

First trade is based on the concepts shown in the video HG shared.

The only issue with this setup is that in the video, the presenter says to look for narrow spreads when the previous high is tested. In this case the spread wasn't narrow, but there were multiple signs of weakness to confirm this trade.

I think this trade went almost 40 pips in my favor, I traded a small position, a mini lot so I didn't really care about the outcome and ended up just letting the trade come back on me.

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AJ was the trade I was really focused on today, look at that spread on the Sunday opening bar. Really huge spread, professional money had to be active on that bar. I was anticipating price to come up and reject the close but instead price pushed through and tested.

My entries were kinda high, but luckily the pair didn't really put me under too much pressure.

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Can't stress this enough, always look at daily.. Even if you're trading a M1 chart. Look at AJ daily, 92.95 has been acting as support and Friday dips below and closes above the support on high volume. With that information, it should be clear to hold on to any longs.

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  • #35,902
  • Nov 14, 2022 11:44am Nov 14, 2022 11:44am
Trade breakdown.

Step 1

*Important context of trade: Sunday opened with a gap down. Gaps get filled. Not necessarily right away, but at some point all gaps in the ES get filled.

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15 Min (left side)

A. Very interesting bar. This bar leads itself to misinterpretation very easily. It looks like an Up Thrust: It's a wide spread bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar but closes down near the low of its range. However, we must look a little closer. Sellers certainly came in and drove price down after buyers has pushed price up, but the sellers only managed to close the bar at about the same level as the previous close. Additionally, the close is well off the low. If all the volume on this interval represented selling, the close should be lower than the previous bar and closer to the low of its range. This is a sign of strength (SOS).

There is a lot of effort to go lower, but real progress is being made.

5 Min (right side)

A. This bar is essentially the same as the A bar on the 15 min. On the 5 min, the added information comes from the fact that this bar trades down to support (yesterday's mid) and bounces. This is a sign of strength (SOS).

B. A wide spread (although narrower than the previous bar) on increasing volume that makes a lower low than the previous bar and closes near its high. This is Stopping Volume.

Sellers take price lower. Buyers then step in and drive price back up above a known support line and close equal to the previous bar. The only thing that can do this is buying.

From a Wyckoff perspective, this is a Spring. Note we're springing yesterday's mid (YM) and the overnight low (ONL).

Step 2

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Step 3

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Two contextual trade ideas come to fruition: 1. Gap fill 2. Overnight low to Overnight High sweep.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,903
  • Nov 16, 2022 3:07am Nov 16, 2022 3:07am
Anyone place any trades today?

EU M15

Good example today of high volume coming in at odd times.

If you look at yesterday's highest volume bar it was a little after US lunch time which unless its FOMC Wednesday that volume should be lower than US open. I think that volume came in response to the Poland bombing but VSA tells us news is an excuse for professionals to fill orders. Then look at today's Asia volume compared to yesterday's Asia volume, big difference. So this high volume at odd times should have our trader sense tingling.

I didn't label it, but look at today's PA with the cross hairs on it, wide spread up bar closing on the high. Thats absorption, how can you tell? Look at the background, the odd volume yesterday we see a shakeout, plus two bars prior to the absorption you see a shakeout into the high of yesterday's highest volume bar.

From the VZA teachings you usually expect price to test out the mid point of the absorption bar but looks like today price needed to test the lows and it also tested again the highs of the absorption bar. The test on the high was probably the best entry, but I'd rather take failed weakness to be honest.
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  • #35,904
  • Nov 18, 2022 9:13am Nov 18, 2022 9:13am
how to understand it?
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Daytrader
  • #35,905
  • Nov 20, 2022 12:05pm Nov 20, 2022 12:05pm
Quoting trezo
how to understand it? {image}
Against my better judgement.....

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A "bigger picture" thought:

When you see a period of strong price flow in one direction and that strong flow stops or diminishes, the Market tends to want to start flowing in the opposite direction. Hence you hear some traders say, "if the Market can't go any higher, then it's probably going lower." Or vice versa.

A. A wide spread UP bar on Climatic volume that closes off its high with the next bar DOWN. This is Supply. If all that volume had been buying, then the next bar shoot be UP.

B. A narrow spread UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars, closing well of its high. This is No Demand. The Smart Money is not interested in higher prices at this time.

C. A wide spread LEVEL bar on increasing volume that makes a higher high than the previous bar, but closes near the low of its range. Buyers pushed price up, then sellers entered and drove price down. Sellers have not completely taken control of the Market yet, but we note with the Clustering of Closes, buyers are not making any real progress.

D. An increasing spread UP bar on volume less than the previous two bars that closes poorly (closing below its midpoint but off its low). Buyers came in and pushed price higher, but the lack of volume tells us that there is decreasing interest in higher prices and the buyers were not able to close price above the midpoint of the bar. There is No Buying Pressure (NBP).

E. A wide spread UP bar on increasing volume that closes near its high. This is an outside bar. It makes a lower low than the previous bar, then the buyers stepped in and drove price up to make a higher high than the previous bar. The close is good indicating strength. However, if this was truly strength, then why did it not trade above resistance?

F. This is the Aggressive Wyckoff Up Thrust entry. We see a wide spread bar on increasing volume that makes a higher high above resistance then trades down to close below. ( VSA would call this a Hidden Up Thrust since it closes DOWN and not UP). There is weakness all around and we know the flow to the upside is gone.

G. After two bars that closed DOWN on decreasing volume, the Market wants to Test for conviction (Seller interest/Supply). This bar is tricky because it looks like a Spring. As a high volume Test with the next interval UP, we can conclude that the Test passes. Remember, the Market tests for Supply and a good test doesn't find any.

If you are short from the UT, it's definitely scary and about trade management. But....

H. A narrow range UP bar that closes well of its high (closing below its midpoint) on decreasing volume. While this is not a classic No Demand bar, it shows decreasing volume, a poor close, and little upside progress.

We're actually hoping that the last two bars are forming a weak rally. This can be confirmed by the Wave Volume. Since the Test made a lower low, we're also hoping that this bar will create a Lower High. That's the definition of a down trend: lower lows and lower highs.

I. Bingo. A wide spread DOWN bar on increasing volume that takes out the low of the Test bar and all the lows of the trading range and closes on its low. This is a Gotcha bar. Additionally, a wide spread DOWN bar that occurs 1-3 intervals after a successful Test that closes below the low of the Test bar is No Result From a Test and is a serious sign of weakness.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,906
  • Nov 20, 2022 3:06pm Nov 20, 2022 3:06pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Against my better judgement..... {image} A "bigger picture" thought: When you see a period of strong price flow in one direction and that strong flow stops or diminishes, the Market tends to want to start flowing in the opposite direction. Hence you hear some traders say, "if the Market can't go any higher, then it's probably going lower." Or vice versa. A. A wide spread UP bar on Climatic volume that closes off its high with the next bar DOWN. This is Supply. If all that volume had been buying, then the next bar shoot be UP. B. A narrow...
Good analysis Thank you very much !
Daytrader
  • #35,907
  • Edited 6:16pm Nov 20, 2022 4:52pm | Edited 6:16pm
This week is Thanksgiving in the US.

If you're in the US then I hope you enjoy the holiday with your family and friends! If you're outside of the US then have a great short week!
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  • #35,908
  • Nov 20, 2022 5:09pm Nov 20, 2022 5:09pm
Quoting Anotan
This week is Thanksgiving in the US. If you're in the US then I hope enjoy the holiday with your family and friends! If you're outside of the US then have a great short week! {image}
Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and thank you everyone for contributing to this great thread - I've learnt a lot over the years from you folks.
  • #35,909
  • Nov 21, 2022 10:43am Nov 21, 2022 10:43am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Against my better judgement..... {image} A "bigger picture" thought: When you see a period of strong price flow in one direction and that strong flow stops or diminishes, the Market tends to want to start flowing in the opposite direction. Hence you hear some traders say, "if the Market can't go any higher, then it's probably going lower." Or vice versa. A. A wide spread UP bar on Climatic volume that closes off its high with the next bar DOWN. This is Supply. If all that volume had been buying, then the next bar shoot be UP. B. A narrow...
I have a similar case. I was playing short positions here. Session was weak, and also I think we had a couple of weak signals there.
If you could please give me your opinion.
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Daytrader
  • #35,910
  • Nov 22, 2022 6:48am Nov 22, 2022 6:48am
Quoting trezo
{quote} I have a similar case. I was playing short positions here. Session was weak, and also I think we had a couple of weak signals there. If you could please give me your opinion. {image} {image}
Once you've seen climatic volume on an up bar, you have to switch sides and start looking for increased volume on down bars as well as decreasing volume on up bars. If you see low volume down bars after a climatic selling, price isn't weak! If you see increased volume up bars after climatic selling, price isn't weak!

Lets start with your setup at C1.

C1 - Buying Climax, this is the start of the weakness.

C2 - Low volume down bar, this isn't what you want to see after selling. Look at the next bar, its up and closes above the high of the down bar this is strength! You have to wait for price to break below this strength before you can sell. Look how price stays above the close of test, price isn't weak.

Now lets jump to the left at A1.

A1 - Selling climax

A2 - You have two up bars on increased volume and increased spread. This is exactly what you want to see after a selling climax, buyers are showing you they are interested in higher prices.

A3 - No supply bar, price does drop after that, there's nothing you can do. Depending on how you manage your trades you either take a small loss or it may not hit your stop loss.

A4 - Wide spread up bar on increased volume, this is bullish. That selling climax hasn't gone anywhere, the background just doesn't disappear.

A5 - Two bar reversal, with the down bar on low volume, 2nd attempt to get long.

And now for B1 setup.

B1 - Buying climax

B2 - Increased volume and spread on down bars, this is price showing you that sellers are interested.

B3 - Your classic No Demand that allows price to drop off.
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  • #35,911
  • Nov 22, 2022 1:16pm Nov 22, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Once you've seen climatic volume on an up bar, you have to switch sides and start looking for increased volume on down bars as well as decreasing volume on up bars. If you see low volume down bars after a climatic selling, price isn't weak! If you see increased volume up bars after climatic selling, price isn't weak! Lets start with your setup at C1. C1 - Buying Climax, this is the start of the weakness. C2 - Low volume down bar, this isn't what you want to see after selling. Look at the next bar, its up and closes above the high of the...
Thanks for that. This is clear, I think I wouldn't take longs from A# setup cause there was strong downtrend, but it is good analysis.
Daytrader
  • #35,912
  • Nov 22, 2022 9:51pm Nov 22, 2022 9:51pm
I really didn't have any intentions of trading this week but here we are. Even if you trade smallest of time frames, do your analysis on the Daily charts. That daily analysis will tell if its worth holding trades for bigger moves or it can give you obvious trades with little effort like this.

Background is HV weakness but price tested out yesterday showing no one was interested in lower prices.
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  • #35,913
  • Nov 23, 2022 6:38am Nov 23, 2022 6:38am
Quoting Anotan
I really didn't have any intentions of trading this week but here we are. Even if you trade smallest of time frames, do your analysis on the Daily charts. That daily analysis will tell if its worth holding trades for bigger moves or it can give you obvious trades with little effort like this. Background is HV weakness but price tested out yesterday showing no one was interested in lower prices. {image}
Closed this out for a bit of profit.

Daily bar still has a little over 7 hours left till its complete but its looking like the bar is struggling to break the previous high and more than likely price will be up on very low volume which isn't great for bulls.
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  • #35,914
  • Nov 29, 2022 3:14am Nov 29, 2022 3:14am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Closed this out for a bit of profit. Daily bar still has a little over 7 hours left till its complete but its looking like the bar is struggling to break the previous high and more than likely price will be up on very low volume which isn't great for bulls. {image}
Not going to show a follow up chart, but it doesn't pay to try an analyze bars until its completed. That day closed at 1.3880 on increasing volume, I assumed because of the holiday it would be a low volume day and over the next few days price rallied to 1.4080.

Today though on M15 EA great example of after you've seen climatic volume on down bar that any further high volume down bars means continued weakness.

Bar A - This is more hind sight in seeing lack of interest to the upside with the low spread and volume. In reality you expect the market to churn sideways after climatic volume. Any up bars showing lack of interest is expected so that price can fall and form a range for any accumulation.

Bar B- This really should be raising flags though, increased spread on the down bar, the volume is still pretty low but in the back of your mind you should be cautious of any weakness.

Bar C - Nail in the coffin for bulls, the widespread down bar on increasing volume and spread. This bar would've have been perfect if it had closed below the low of the climatic volume and would've been a gotcha bar.
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  • #35,915
  • Nov 29, 2022 8:55am Nov 29, 2022 8:55am
How do you see this ? I got stoploss, but I think my trade was good, maybe next time will be positive
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Daytrader
  • #35,916
  • Edited 5:02pm Nov 29, 2022 4:35pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting trezo
How do you see this ? I got stoploss, but I think my trade was good, maybe next time will be positive {image}
imo it s better to wait for atleast a 50% retrace after such an extended move.
why u didn take the short?
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  • #35,917
  • Edited 3:37am Nov 30, 2022 2:29am | Edited 3:37am
Could be something going on with ECad.

M15 2 bar reversal into the close of a widespread up bar closing on the highs.

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It happens.

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  • #35,918
  • Nov 30, 2022 7:06am Nov 30, 2022 7:06am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} imo it s better to wait for atleast a 50% retrace after such an extended move. why u didn take the short? {image} {image}
I wasn't trading this time, where you marked short etc. I am talking about this correction move on decreasing volume. I took short and got SL.

Also at your second photo, you are showing NQ100 after US session closed Volumes are dried, real cause you are showing tick volume.
Daytrader
  • #35,919
  • Nov 30, 2022 7:30am Nov 30, 2022 7:30am
Quoting trezo
{quote} I wasn't trading this time, where you marked short etc. I am talking about this correction move on decreasing volume. I took short and got SL. Also at your second photo, you are showing NQ100 after US session closed Volumes are dried, real cause you are showing tick volume.
i know it s off hrs, i just wanted to prove a point(entry model). yes tick vol cos it s the only 1 i got at the moment. if u wasn t around to trade the Move then just wait.
yesterday was UC long really nice trade, and now USDCHF long and NAS100 short
PS> Slipage (if u can call it that on NAS with the 3lot entry..but hey, i guess that happens from time to time?
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  • #35,920
  • Nov 30, 2022 7:56am Nov 30, 2022 7:56am
how about that situation?
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Daytrader
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