Where's The Edge? | Page 10 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

An Edge for an Edge (System Development) 116 replies

What do you mean by "Trader's Edge"? 17 replies

Odds and Edge - Probabilities in Day Trading 1 reply

Trading edge or following the crowd? 9 replies

What's your edge? 23 replies

Attachments: Where's The Edge?
Exit Attachments

Where's The Edge?

  • #181
  • Nov 11, 2022 2:58am Nov 11, 2022 2:58am
Quoting driven18
{quote} RickM practicing SIM scalping to be in tune with the markets before live scalping. You want to be within momentum of the market. You Go Boyyy! The word "Momentum" is very underappreciated and it got nothing to do with any indicators.
hi my friend i am basing my trading strategy on momentum. But the question I always ask myself is this ... how can we measure momentum? I speak of the immediate because I trade now! taking a tick chart is there the possibility to measure when, compared to the rest of the day there is more momentum? If you can measure how do I divide the purchases from the sales to see where the market is unbalanced? thank you...
  • #182
  • Edited 7:26pm Nov 11, 2022 9:33am | Edited 7:26pm
Momentum does not necessarily means Price Action momentum at any given moment.

Read all my posts above on this subject, but to really simplify it, see what worked during the last 3 months, as an example what patterns proved to be successful during a particular time of the day...and use that knowledge to trade the front month. That is my momentum, those patterns will repeat itself during the front month.

I have 200 of the logical conditions and I choose the best performing conditions, as an example August 1 - November 1 and I use those conditions in November.
  • #183
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:08pm Nov 12, 2022 9:08pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Yes yes yes. Supply and demand is veeeerrrryyy good. But we have one little annoying problem: there are no data on forex to get supply or demand. No way you can get it. But yes, supply and demand is very good. But we can discuss your amazing profitable forex supply/demand strategy. For sure. Why not? If we seriously discuss colored lines and correct traders mood. Why not to discuss non-existance thing like supply and demand.
It works well for me. Sarcasm and Closed-minded mentality are definitely no edges to grow in this career as a trader to be honest. Peace.
  • #184
  • Nov 13, 2022 7:48am Nov 13, 2022 7:48am
Quoting driven18
Great Topic Riskcuit! Hello RickM **Here is my Edge** I created an ea that takes into consideration 200 conditions(parameters) using 1 Hour Bar(as an example) across 3 previous months of trading. Conditions can be anything: patterns, session times, various indicators, SL, Trailing's, various TPs, Sup/Res, Pivots, etc...you name it....These 200 conditions are the most important conditions I trade throughout my 10 years experience in trading. Every month I optimize these 200 conditions across previous 3 months and pick the best set of inputs....
Thanks for sharing Driven!

This sounds like a pretty sound method of essentially machine learning, using a 75/25 split on the data (75% for training (last 3 months), 25% for testing (next month)).
ri · skuht
  • #185
  • Nov 13, 2022 11:30am Nov 13, 2022 11:30am
You don't need an 'edge', as that is thought of more as a "competitive advantage" and here there isn't any competition, it's just trading and a simply buy/sell process.

Simple, in that it's not complex as an activity, but harder than people initially realise (as almost everyone finds out), to become moderately or very successful.

Alternatively, you could view "the edge" as be the ability to think clearly about trading, using relatively , having good money management skills, letting good* ...positive trades run and closing off negative positions early (ignore if that's manual or using SL's).

Another seriously important point is "letting positive trades run" which so many people here don't do, as they 'calculate' (lol!) a RR and set a TP. If trade is positive, let it run...as if you close it early you're losing out on great potential to cover any negative trades.



---------------
* I HATE the idea of people viewing trades as good and bad...as if your "bad" trade that gets taken out with one pip move past your SL that then goes positive. That's ridiculous, but you constantly hear about people saying "oh, that was a bad trade, as I'd set my SL too tight".

You can't know where the price will move, but you might be able to track roughly where it seems to be moving/will move (which is why we use PA, indicators, etc. and not just a flashing current price value), and that's what makes some trades work out and others not.
  • #186
  • Edited 12:29pm Nov 13, 2022 12:15pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting Riskcuit
{quote} Thanks for sharing Driven! This sounds like a pretty sound method of essentially machine learning, using a 75/25 split on the data (75% for training (last 3 months), 25% for testing (next month)).
Correct. That 25% for testing is in actuality Live real time trading. After that "market will do what market will do, because market is the authority over any data", but I accepted and am happy about my odds.
  • #187
  • Nov 13, 2022 5:04pm Nov 13, 2022 5:04pm
I traded for years. I tried many tools, timeframes and brokers. The common thread to every possible combination is that the powers that control, cheat, and they don't give a shit if you know it. Sometimes it's blatant, sometime subtle. But it is always there. They know where your stop is, if you have one. FTX, although a different market, is a shining example and it will prove to be just the starting point of showing the cheating and theft that happens every day and the cheaters know you can't do a damned thing about it.

How long did it take for the money wire to your broker take to show up? Two to three days. Why? The starting point for the cheating is the SWIFT system. They use your money for a day or two. Why? Because they can. Think of a barker at a carnival. Your being called in by the barker. You're smart, you can do it. Live the easy life. Look at this person, how good his life is because he is a successful trader. To answer the question. Where's the edge? They have the edge and the chance of you having one is near impossible. They have the edge and they will not let you have one no matter how smart you think you are or how much you "practice".

Just consider yourselves lucky that you will just lose money and not your freedom and your wealth like Sam Bankman-Fried.
  • #188
  • Nov 14, 2022 5:45am Nov 14, 2022 5:45am
Quoting Sossos
I traded for years. I tried many tools, timeframes and brokers. The common thread to every possible combination is that the powers that control, cheat, and they don't give a shit if you know it. Sometimes it's blatant, sometime subtle. But it is always there. They know where your stop is, if you have one. FTX, although a different market, is a shining example and it will prove to be just the starting point of showing the cheating and theft that happens every day and the cheaters know you can't do a damned thing about it. How long did it take for...
I agree with a lot of this. Than again, there does exist an edge for us small fish too.
And that is to observe the activities of the big fish and pre-empt their next action, recognizing the build up of momentum from these activities. Making an educated guess based on probabilities about their next move. Simply following their actions when they are manifest and obvious is too late and too risky for scalping most of the time.
  • #189
  • Nov 14, 2022 7:59am Nov 14, 2022 7:59am
Quoting Sossos
I traded for years. I tried many tools, timeframes and brokers. The common thread to every possible combination is that the powers that control, cheat, and they don't give a shit if you know it. Sometimes it's blatant, sometime subtle. But it is always there. They know where your stop is, if you have one. FTX, although a different market, is a shining example and it will prove to be just the starting point of showing the cheating and theft that happens every day and the cheaters know you can't do a damned thing about it. How long did it take for...
That is a "bitter" assessment of the "The Edge". There are traders here who are using "The Edge" to be successful.
  • #190
  • Nov 14, 2022 9:05pm Nov 14, 2022 9:05pm
Your edge is in the money management. Their edge is in you using a stoploss. If your trade requires a stoploss, your position size is too big. No matter where you place that stoploss you will lose in the long term.
  • #191
  • Nov 14, 2022 9:58pm Nov 14, 2022 9:58pm
Quoting ashur123
Your edge is in the money management. Their edge is in you using a stoploss. If your trade requires a stoploss, your position size is too big. No matter where you place that stoploss you will lose in the long term.
What a lot of crap.

Are you telling me if you placed a three lot position on the market, you wouldn’t have a stop. If that’s too big, are you saying I should trade for penny’s instead just to make just enough to buy my girl friend a cheap steak for night out.

A stop is there to save your account, accept the loss and move on.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #192
  • Nov 14, 2022 10:09pm Nov 14, 2022 10:09pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} What a lot of crap. Are you telling me if you placed a three lot position on the market, you wouldn’t have a stop. If that’s too big, are you saying I should trade for penny’s instead just to make just enough to buy my girl friend a cheap steak for night out. A stop is there to save your account, accept the loss and move on.
Yes you should be trading pennies instead if your account isn't big enough. Never mind buying your girlfriend steaks with forex money, not until you've built it big enough where it's consistently bringing in bigger and bigger profits as it grows. Then she can have her steak. Till then get her ass in the kitchen and tell her to cook you a nice home made meal.
  • #193
  • Nov 15, 2022 5:01am Nov 15, 2022 5:01am
Quoting ashur123
Your edge is in the money management. Their edge is in you using a stoploss. If your trade requires a stoploss, your position size is too big. No matter where you place that stoploss you will lose in the long term.
Hi ashur123
A kid asked troy ( one of the greatest fighter) : they say your mom is a Goddess, they say you can't be beaten, neither die.
He replied with simple answer: why the heck am I wearing armor?
Stop loss is your armor bud. It takes a gut to hold on a loosing trade and close it...only few ones who understands the risk do that for long run, else it ain't for long-term. Never let one bad trade ruin your trading carrier thus why we use stoplos.
I live in the future
  • #194
  • Nov 15, 2022 7:25am Nov 15, 2022 7:25am
Quoting TonyTepeli
{quote} Hi ashur123 A kid asked troy ( one of the greatest fighter) : they say your mom is a Goddess, they say you can't be beaten, neither die. He replied with simple answer: why the heck am I wearing armor? Stop loss is your armor bud. It takes a gut to hold on a loosing trade and close it...only few ones who understands the risk do that for long run, else it ain't for long-term. Never let one bad trade ruin your trading carrier thus why we use stoplos.
Hi Tony

So true, stop losses save your arse.

Except


Aussie Dollar Flash crash in January 2019.

I was on holiday trading in Gardiner, a town at the edge of Yellowstone National Park trading a portfolio of 6 Algo's on the Aussie & Euro dollar.
A sudden surge down of price around 4% in the morning when liquidity was extremely thin (traders still on holiday mostly) caused a major gap down in price over all nearby stop losses including my one as well. The gap down was something like 700 pips and caused a Margin call on my account.

$35,000 fuckin dollars down the tube.

Sometimes even a Stop Loss ain't going to save your arse.
That was the day I decided to create a big bonfire and started throwing my EA's on the fire and smiled as they burned to a crisp.

F......k Algo's, still it was another 12 months before I mostly ceased all Algo trading.

Tha was the day the sun came out and I could breathe again.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #195
  • Nov 15, 2022 7:25am Nov 15, 2022 7:25am
Quoting TonyTepeli
{quote} Hi ashur123 A kid asked troy ( one of the greatest fighter) : they say your mom is a Goddess, they say you can't be beaten, neither die. He replied with simple answer: why the heck am I wearing armor? Stop loss is your armor bud. It takes a gut to hold on a loosing trade and close it...only few ones who understands the risk do that for long run, else it ain't for long-term. Never let one bad trade ruin your trading carrier thus why we use stoplos.
To each their own. If you feel the stoploss is working for you, use it. How many times has your stoploss been hit just by a couple pips only to reverse and go in your favor after? Stoploss is the brokers take profit and the fact that 90%+ traders use it and 90%+ traders lose in forex in the long run isn't a coincidence. Stoploss isn't armor, it's more like the garbage poison injections the governments forced on the masses. They told us we need it and it'll protect us, meanwhile it has obliterated the immune system and caused more harm than any other drug manufactured in the last 100 years. Whatever the mass population does never ends well. Stoploss is one of those things.
  • #196
  • Nov 15, 2022 12:17pm Nov 15, 2022 12:17pm
Quoting ashur123
{quote} To each their own. If you feel the stoploss is working for you, use it. How many times has your stoploss been hit just by a couple pips only to reverse and go in your favor after? Stoploss is the brokers take profit and the fact that 90%+ traders use it and 90%+ traders lose in forex in the long run isn't a coincidence. Stoploss isn't armor, it's more like the garbage poison injections the governments forced on the masses. They told us we need it and it'll protect us, meanwhile it has obliterated the immune system and caused more harm than...
Hi buddy,
I personally trade volatile markets( news) that most traders don't, there are occasion i use stoplos and it work fines for me. Else i hedge my position without stoplos.
Whatever work for u it's okay.
Best of lucky Buddy!
I live in the future
  • #197
  • Nov 16, 2022 4:52am Nov 16, 2022 4:52am
Isn't he playing with U2 anymore?
  • #198
  • Nov 16, 2022 7:58am Nov 16, 2022 7:58am
Quoting Munster
Isn't he playing with U2 anymore?
Lieber Munster
Ich verstehe nicht!
I live in the future
  • #199
  • Nov 16, 2022 9:15am Nov 16, 2022 9:15am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Tony So true, stop losses save your arse. Except Aussie Dollar Flash crash in January 2019. I was on holiday trading in Gardiner, a town at the edge of Yellowstone National Park trading a portfolio of 6 Algo's on the Aussie & Euro dollar. A sudden surge down of price around 4% in the morning when liquidity was extremely thin (traders still on holiday mostly) caused a major gap down in price over all nearby stop losses including my one as well. The gap down was something like 700 pips and caused a Margin call on my account. $35,000 fuckin...
why blame EAs on flash crashes? even when manual trading you can't do anything in case of a flash crash...

what you can do... use >10 accounts >2 brokers and split your capital versus various symbols/strategies..
  • #200
  • Nov 16, 2022 10:06am Nov 16, 2022 10:06am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Tony So true, stop losses save your arse. Except Aussie Dollar Flash crash in January 2019. I was on holiday trading in Gardiner, a town at the edge of Yellowstone National Park trading a portfolio of 6 Algo's on the Aussie & Euro dollar. A sudden surge down of price around 4% in the morning when liquidity was extremely thin (traders still on holiday mostly) caused a major gap down in price over all nearby stop losses including my one as well. The gap down was something like 700 pips and caused a Margin call on my account. $35,000 fuckin...
Thanks for sharing your story Rick.

SL and TP are just a safeguard, but at volatile times the slippage can be huge. Sometimes for good mostly for bad. Once my TP was hit but executed at +10 pips from where I put it, extra money but not good track record for the broker in my impression.

And.... Gardiner!!! Woking Panda, YNP arch, Boiling River. Good memories and great place to stay and trade!

Trade well
0 traders viewing now