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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #15,781
  • Nov 9, 2022 12:56pm Nov 9, 2022 12:56pm
M1 & M5 EURO

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Started out with Basic PASR, then Swing PASR and on to Trend PASR
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,782
  • Nov 9, 2022 12:59pm Nov 9, 2022 12:59pm
Quoting bistolis
Bad execution though {image}
Maybe draw trend lines to help
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,783
  • Nov 9, 2022 1:07pm Nov 9, 2022 1:07pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Hey Strat, Yeah golf season is winding down, our course is closing at the end of this week. I thought I would start posting higher time frame trades, tried M1 and M5 but prefer the slightly higher time frames although I still drop to M1 and M5 for better entries on retraces. Just took a long on GU this morning on M30 and closed when the Big Boss informed me we had to go and rake up leaves in the yard. There was still room for more up move but I was only targeting the top of the H4 control candle so that is where I got out. Regards Terry...
I thought I would start posting higher time frame trades

Thank you - maybe it will get others to post

tried M1 and M5 but prefer the slightly higher time frames although I still drop to M1 and M5 for better entries on retraces.

I keep trying longer time frames but I can't handle the draw down.

I was only targeting the top of the H4 control candle so that is where I got out.

You can't beat following your PLAN!

the Big Boss informed me we had to go and rake up leaves in the yard.

The problem with the Big Boss is as they get older they get bigger and bossier!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,784
  • Nov 9, 2022 1:09pm Nov 9, 2022 1:09pm
Quoting TerryDawe
A line chart showing the power of the strat shadow combined with the 9 on H4. Retraces closed right down to the bottom of the shadow followed by a retrace right down the 9. Good thing to switch to line charts occasionally to see where price is closing and taking away all the wicks and tails. Thought this might be of interest to some. Regards Terry {image}
Good thing to switch to line charts

Well said, Terry. I used to watch Line Charts to train myself on SEEING BEYOND THE CANDLES.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,785
  • Nov 9, 2022 1:12pm Nov 9, 2022 1:12pm
Quoting bistolis
Price did not react to my liking, although in the end it almost reached my targets{image}
Price did not react to my liking,

That's why we have to be on our toes and expect the unexpected.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,786
  • Nov 10, 2022 8:14am Nov 10, 2022 8:14am
Quoting Strat
{quote} May I suggest you pay attention to long duration bonds at this point of the cycle? What a coincidence Darko, I was doing the same. Thank you darko (and Radhe). The only thing I know about Bonds is that they trade counter to Stocks. Please post some chart examples to whet my appetite. Thank you. Meanwhile, the $ continues to dive. {image}
Actually, bonds and stocks rally in unison most of the time, except at turning points.
I will try and write something about that in more details, but, in the meantime, here is a chart of the US 10 year Bond.
The bottom line is that bonds will probably rally more in 2023 than stocks and stock indices because we are approaching the terminal rate whereas something can break in the stock market (and cryptos, as evidenced this week)
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  • #15,787
  • Nov 10, 2022 1:37pm Nov 10, 2022 1:37pm
M1 & M5 EURO

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I was really tempted to buy at 5:15am but my discipline is to stay out ahead of News Events. Had I done so, I would have been in Fat City BUT, had the News sent PRICE down, I would have LOST big time as PRICE moved so fast it would have just sliced through any stops. What keeps me on an even keel is what I posted early in these two 2009 threads - Think of what you will LOSE and NOT what you will win.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,788
  • Nov 11, 2022 1:48am Nov 11, 2022 1:48am
Hi Strat

I've dipped in and out of your content over the years and find myself back at your thread, possibly of more interest to me now as I have always favoured shorter TF's.

Like many, over the years I have dabbled with all sorts and until recently I was trading fairly close to what you're advocating here recently, but had fallen into the trap of adding a couple more MA's and a MACD.

Re-reading has reminded me that the simple charts give more clarity.

Took my first trade off the new chart this AM as per attached, 17pips in 20mins. If I was fully re-invested in your methodology, I'd have let it run, by my eye the next S/R is around 1.0250 (S/R levels taken from 1H TF) but I still have a 15 pip TP matra ringing in my ears.

Thanks for staying with this thread, it doesn't have as many followers as it should.
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Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #15,789
  • Nov 11, 2022 1:56am Nov 11, 2022 1:56am
and what do you know......
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Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #15,790
  • Nov 11, 2022 3:33am Nov 11, 2022 3:33am
After seeing 1.0250 firmly rejected at the first ask, I was watching with interest to see if it would hold once broken. It did for a little while then started giving back wso was looking for a PA break under the 1.0250 an MA10.

looks like I got it, but missed it doing some day job work.
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Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #15,791
  • Nov 11, 2022 8:04am Nov 11, 2022 8:04am
Last one from me today.

Gold - entered at the highlighted candle, not the strongest, but USD pairs seemed to be trending well ( contemplated taking the euro, but it had an extended run, with minimal pullbacks).

tested my resolve when it pulled back, very much so when closing below the 10, but the following candle pushed north, on the close of which Ipulled my SL to BE. I can't bear the thoguht of a 10-15 pip winner going back into drawdown.

It came back to take me out at BE (but well inside my opening SL) before going straight up to where my TP was at 1765. I suppose better BE than taking a loss.
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Getting there, slowly but surely...
  • #15,792
  • Nov 11, 2022 11:00am Nov 11, 2022 11:00am
Hi Strat,

I have not commented on any posts for a long time within FF, I was new to all the PASR threads, it's an honour to communicate with you, I haven't read the entire thread of Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading, which I believe is the original thread from 2009. My initial question is....

From 2009 it appears to me that you were working with Big Boss (Monthly) Boss (Weekly) and Worker (Daily) and taking trades on the daily from info gained from Boss & Big Boss, but within this thread of "Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading" recently I am only seeing you posting M1 & M5 charts, it seems.

I did see in the original thread that you were studying the M5 timeframe, back in 2009 I think I am right in saying and you were applying PASR to M5.

I am on the cusp of retirement from my regular business, so I am wanting to focus on PASR for as long as it takes to become proficient, it would be nice to know, to what degree you now focus on the original higher TF's or these lower TF's if you wouldn't mind letting me know please?

I hope you are well, have a good weekend.

Thanks
  • #15,793
  • Nov 11, 2022 12:17pm Nov 11, 2022 12:17pm
M1 & M5 EURO

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Screwed up on my first trade at 5:02am (13:02 chart time). As I look back now, I have no idea what I was doing or why I even took that trade. That made me go into conservative trading and risk management mode until I got my trading brain back in gear.

Fortunately, PA today was slower than Harry Maguire!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,794
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:11am Nov 12, 2022 9:11am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Actually, bonds and stocks rally in unison most of the time, except at turning points. I will try and write something about that in more details, but, in the meantime, here is a chart of the US 10 year Bond. The bottom line is that bonds will probably rally more in 2023 than stocks and stock indices because we are approaching the terminal rate whereas something can break in the stock market (and cryptos, as evidenced this week) {image}
Thanks darko, I'll see if my 2 brokers trade Bonds and T Notes then I'll check them out.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,795
  • Edited 9:41am Nov 12, 2022 9:25am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Edlich
Hi Strat I've dipped in and out of your content over the years and find myself back at your thread, possibly of more interest to me now as I have always favoured shorter TF's. Like many, over the years I have dabbled with all sorts and until recently I was trading fairly close to what you're advocating here recently, but had fallen into the trap of adding a couple more MA's and a MACD. Re-reading has reminded me that the simple charts give more clarity. Took my first trade off the new chart this AM as per attached, 17pips in 20mins. If I was fully...
I've dipped in and out of your content over the years and find myself back at your thread,

Welcome back and thank you for the appreciation

had fallen into the trap of adding a couple more MA's and a MACD.

These attract the newbies and "Get Rich Quick" fools because they look so good in history but in REAL TIME...............well we know what happens

Re-reading has reminded me that the simple charts give more clarity.

Spot On, all other additions cause confusion and are just food for our "Little People".

I still have a 15 pip TP mantra ringing in my ears.

There is nothing wrong with that if that is your style and you can make a consistent living with it.

Thanks for staying with this thread, it doesn't have as many followers as it should.

I can only think it is because we don't have the squiggly lines, arrows and flashing lights plus PASR traders have to use their trading brain which most on these public trading threads don't have. Maybe those hiding in the background have the balls to tell us why.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,796
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:29am Nov 12, 2022 9:29am
Quoting Edlich
After seeing 1.0250 firmly rejected at the first ask, I was watching with interest to see if it would hold once broken. It did for a little while then started giving back wso was looking for a PA break under the 1.0250 an MA10. looks like I got it, but missed it doing some day job work. {image}
Make sure to watch PRICE structure - higher highs and higher lows with the Strat Shadow trend.

Thanks for posting
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,797
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:40am Nov 12, 2022 9:40am
Quoting Edlich
Last one from me today. Gold - entered at the highlighted candle, not the strongest, but USD pairs seemed to be trending well ( contemplated taking the euro, but it had an extended run, with minimal pullbacks). tested my resolve when it pulled back, very much so when closing below the 10, but the following candle pushed north, on the close of which I pulled my SL to BE. I can't bear the thought of a 10-15 pip winner going back into draw down. It came back to take me out at BE (but well inside my opening SL) before going straight up to where my TP...
PA would have been too erratic for me to trade but looks like you did well. I think you will find the 9 MA is better than the 10 but it is only a minor difference and is your choice.

I can't bear the thought of a 10-15 pip winner going back into draw down.

That is your style and mine too except mine is any draw down because of my position sizing.

I suppose better BE than taking a loss.

Yes indeed- always.

Last one from me today.

I appreciate your posts, thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,798
  • Nov 12, 2022 10:16am Nov 12, 2022 10:16am
Quoting JaguarJaguar
Hi Strat, I have not commented on any posts for a long time within FF, I was new to all the PASR threads, it's an honour to communicate with you, I haven't read the entire thread of Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading, which I believe is the original thread from 2009. My initial question is.... From 2009 it appears to me that you were working with Big Boss (Monthly) Boss (Weekly) and Worker (Daily) and taking trades on the daily from info gained from Boss & Big Boss, I am only seeing you posting M1 & M5 charts, it seems. I did see in the original...
Welcome Jaguar man!

From 2009 it appears to me that you were working with Big Boss (Monthly) Boss (Weekly) and Worker (Daily) and taking trades on the daily from info gained from Boss & Big Boss,

Correct. The higher the time frame, the more accurate are PA, candles, patterns, PRICE structure etc. The big disadvantages are the size of the SL and the frequency of set ups. These time frames were the best to illustrate PASR to those wanting to learn it.

but within this thread of "Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading" recently I am only seeing you posting M1 & M5 charts

Yes. My addiction to trading leaves me with no patience to trade any time frame higher than M15. M5 produces 288 more trading opportunities than D1 and trading M1 allows me to trade larger position sizes while maximising profits and reducing losses. The disadvantage to this is the focus and concentration required on the charts which is why I only trade EUR Futures (DOW Futures if EURO is inactive) and try (very difficult for me) to restrict my trading time to 3 hours.

I think I am right in saying and you were applying PASR to M5

I ONLY trade PASR - I have no clue how to trade in any other way.

I am wanting to focus on PASR for as long as it takes to become proficient

Sorry but "proficient" is not the same as "consistently profitable". There are many who are proficient in trading but can't trade their way out of a wet paper bag - Van Tharp is one of many so called experts/gurus etc.

Let us know how we can help and if the longer time frames are your interest, maybe strike up a relationship with TerryDawe on here as he understands and trades PASR really well (hope you don't mind, Terry).

I am on the cusp of retirement from my regular business

Good luck and good health with that.

Thank you for your interest - E Type or XK120?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #15,799
  • Nov 14, 2022 7:01am Nov 14, 2022 7:01am
Hello everyone.

Just a thought as I am looking at weekly charts to prepare for the week.
Dax is only down 12% year to date and, while we have potentially bullish inflows for Q4 due to seasonality and hopium of central bank pivots, I will pay great attention to the 14800-15000 zone which would be a gift for a swing short for 2023 as far as I am concerned.

Germany is a great place to invest when the ECB pumps free money and China buys their products and, more importantly, energy is cheap. None of these seem to be the current situation going forward and expensive energy will impact most of the Dax components.

EURUSD has contributed to the Dax relative outperformance so far, but given that USD cannot stay that elevated structurally, that relative advantage is bound to go away eventually and the companies' real performance will start leading perceptions.

If history is a guide, the March 2020 lows should be re-tested in 2023, which means a whopping 45% return from my 14800-15000 levels where I would consider shorts.

Just my 2 cents
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  • #15,800
  • Edited 7:41am Nov 14, 2022 7:28am | Edited 7:41am
With regards to USD, we remain on a bullish trend and, using DXY, 104-105 should be a very solid support which is at a confluence of both a horizontal strong support and the Daily 200 moving average.

Not only is this relevant to me from a PASR perspective, but also in line with macro fundamentals as EUR (60% of DXY) is a monkey currency and JPY has been a joke for the last decade thanks to a paralyzed BoJ. Kuroda leaves office in March 2023 and he won't change stance now at the risk of losing face. It will be the next governor's job to clean his mess IMO

A stronger USD will likely drive back stocks down, further stifling commerce and the hope of cheap energy as all commodities are priced in USD
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