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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,881
  • Oct 31, 2022 10:58am Oct 31, 2022 10:58am
Really enjoying the additional layer of your analyses via multiple timeframes HiddenGap!
  • #35,882
  • Edited 5:30am Nov 3, 2022 4:28am | Edited 5:30am
The day after FOMC tends to be a trending day, and today made prefect sense since most pairs have been range bound this week.

AU H1

The FOMC bar obvious weakness.

Today in late Asia price came up on low volume with a perfect ND on the high. If I'm being completely honest I was just messing around today and wasn't paying attention to the markets during Asia, otherwise that ND would've been the perfect entry.

Price pushed through previous day close and I started selling, as price pushed through that close it was on high volume, sellers absorbing any buyers.

As Tom would say, if you're writing a book this is the chart you show.
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  • #35,883
  • Nov 3, 2022 5:33am Nov 3, 2022 5:33am
If you look back at Oct 13th there is clear climatic volume and right now price is hovering around that close, perfect opportunity to take some partial profits. I did do some scalping as well, I just drop down to a M5 chart and look for head fakes. I.E. sell anytime price pops above a SoS, most of the entries CyberForex has shown are head fakes.
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  • #35,884
  • Edited 7:33am Nov 3, 2022 6:55am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting Anotan
If you look back at Oct 13th there is clear climatic volume and right now price is hovering around that close, perfect opportunity to take some partial profits. I did do some scalping as well, I just drop down to a M5 chart and look for head fakes. I.E. sell anytime price pops above a SoS, most of the entries CyberForex has shown are head fakes. {image}
Hi Anotan, thats good that you study my entries with your strong VSA background it would be easy to recognize and analyze the charts i posted. As i said i developed for my hedge fund an unique strategy based on VSA which is "trade like smart money system" so trying to trade like smart money at SM-level ... actualy i have no fun to put my trade here again but because you mentioned my name ok let me put my yesterday trades in GOLD ... i took it even before the news because i already recognized where the SM will bring the price i put several trades but i didnt put buy order at the last selling bar at my best level because it was already late sleeping time hahaha ... i didnt follow the news but it was as expected i got my target (over 400 pips) before the price fall ... the smart money can not hide their footprint hahaha ... easy.

happy trading guys .... back idle ....
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  • #35,885
  • Nov 3, 2022 7:37am Nov 3, 2022 7:37am
Quoting Anotan
If you look back at Oct 13th there is clear climatic volume and right now price is hovering around that close, perfect opportunity to take some partial profits. I did do some scalping as well, I just drop down to a M5 chart and look for head fakes. I.E. sell anytime price pops above a SoS, most of the entries CyberForex has shown are head fakes. {image}
Hi Anotan could you be more specific, is not price supppose to move up when you see a SOS, which means sign of strenght, but you mentioned "sell anytime price pops above sos".

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #35,886
  • Nov 3, 2022 8:05am Nov 3, 2022 8:05am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi Anotan could you be more specific, is not price supppose to move up when you see a SOS, which means sign of strenght, but you mentioned "sell anytime price pops above sos". Thanks Kind regards
The logic behind this statement is that if price is weak, professionals will want to suck in dumb money to fill their orders by creating bullish tests. Also they will use these tests to gauge the markets reaction in order to see if any serious buyers are still around.

I don't know if you/ve spent much time with VZA, I spent a bit of time with it and found it was filled with soo many false entries. But here is AU M5 with the white zone as the Asia Open and the Yellow zone as the London open. Notice how you see multiple bullish tests and either price fails immediately after the test or price comes up a little bit only to fall and resume the main trend. Also notice the lack of bearish tests, because of that its easier to to sell as price is rising off the bullish tests.

Keep in mind when I do this, its just for scalping small positions, either I close them as price dips below the low of the test or wait for a close below the test.

I don't use VZA zones while trading, I'm just showing these zones to illustrate my point.
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  • #35,887
  • Nov 3, 2022 1:00pm Nov 3, 2022 1:00pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} The logic behind this statement is that if price is weak, professionals will want to suck in dumb money to fill their orders by creating bullish tests. Also they will use these tests to gauge the markets reaction in order to see if any serious buyers are still around. I don't know if you/ve spent much time with VZA, I spent a bit of time with it and found it was filled with soo many false entries. But here is AU M5 with the white zone as the Asia Open and the Yellow zone as the London open. Notice how you see multiple bullish tests and either...
Hi Anotan,

Yes I have studied a lot VZA and I agree with you is like many things in trading sometimes the work and you think that is the key to the kingdom and other times they mean nothing.

In any case, they way I understand your above post is, on the higher timeframe you have clear SOW with the massive candle that is also confirmed on the following candles.

Then you drop to lower timeframes and find areas VZA or open, close, basically psycologycal levels.

Then you look like you mentioned previously SOS on the lower timframe and trade when the prices move above SOS.

OK but how do you know that the SOS is not going to make move the Price a lot higher, not necessarily change the trend from bearish to bullish but may want to go to a lot higher área of interest.

Or a more dramatic example how do you know that is not the change of trend, even if the dominant trend is higher time frames, trends alwaways start changing on smaller timframes there is not other way aroud it.

So bascially my question i show do you know when trading agaisnt SOS on lower timeframes that those SOS do not carry enoguh importance.

Thanks
Kind regards
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  • #35,888
  • Edited 7:10pm Nov 3, 2022 5:57pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} OK but how do you know that the SOS is not going to make move the Price a lot higher, not necessarily change the trend from bearish to bullish but may want to go to a lot higher área of interest..
For this AU trade, I wasn't worried about any meaningful pull backs. The background was weak with the FOMC bar, the H1 ND in late Asia and the HV M15 absorption bar pushing through the previous day close. Also the day after FOMC tends to be a trending day, so as long as price stays below the previous day's close I was only looking for sells.

To answer your question in general terms.

My main focus in trading is on High Volume Closes on the H1 chart. If I'm selling a pair and I see a SoS, I want to know why that SoS appeared. I look at my H1 chart and see if that SoS is appearing at a HVC, if it is then I start protecting myself by taking partial profits and getting all my trades to BE.

If I see a SoS appear and it isn't around an HVC or a previous H/L then I would sell as price pushes above it.

Now looking at how do I know if price will rise off the SoS. When strength appears it appears on down bars, this is true for initial strength that stops a down move. For that strength to continue there needs to be increasing volume on the up bars. So if there is a SoS and steady volume (volume above the 13 MA) on up bars then its time to protect the trade.
  • #35,889
  • Nov 3, 2022 10:38pm Nov 3, 2022 10:38pm
UC H1

Yesterday's highest volume bar, that widespread down bar. When you see widespread down bars with PA to the left its usually weakness.

Today in Asia, price was kind enough to push through the HVC and you can even see where price tested the HVC after the push down. Lets see if we can get price to tag the HVC from FOMC.
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  • #35,890
  • Nov 4, 2022 12:35am Nov 4, 2022 12:35am
One of the hardest things to learn in VSA is that after you've seen climatic volume on a down bar, you have to shift your focus to finding high volume up bars to confirm your strength.

If you're seeing repeated high volume down bars, that weakness. If you see low volume up bars after a climatic down bar, thats weakness.

This is UC M5, a lot of HV down bars and look at the up bars, low volume.

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Multi entries are so useful for this type of trading. Seeing repeated weakness? Get your previous entries to BE and continue to build your position. It really isn't hard to turn a snowball into an avalanche.
  • #35,891
  • Nov 4, 2022 1:52am Nov 4, 2022 1:52am
My AU trade I was stopped out today obviously, I did give back quite a bit but still walked away with some profit. I do get greedy when it comes to my TPs.

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UC we just tagged FOMC close, very fast PA as it touched the level so I closed 1/2 of my trades. Going to hold for a bit, I do expect a decent move just based on FOMC. Markets tend to go into a trend after FOMC and CPI.

I'm done for the week, happy weekend.

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  • #35,892
  • Nov 4, 2022 3:40am Nov 4, 2022 3:40am
Quoting Anotan
One of the hardest things to learn in VSA is that after you've seen climatic volume on a down bar, you have to shift your focus to finding high volume up bars to confirm your strength. If you're seeing repeated high volume down bars, that weakness. If you see low volume up bars after a climatic down bar, thats weakness. This is UC M5, a lot of HV down bars and look at the up bars, low volume. {image} Multi entries are so useful for this type of trading. Seeing repeated weakness? Get your previous entries to BE and continue to build your position....
Thanks a lot could not be better explainedˇˇˇˇˇˇˇ
  • #35,893
  • Nov 8, 2022 8:55pm Nov 8, 2022 8:55pm
Question for anyone. Do you trade distributions tops differently from retests? I'm contemplating an early entry but not sure if it's sound trading or just FOMO:
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  1. Distribution hitting the ticker
  2. Waning volume showing sellers aren't interested
  3. Test bar (above avg volume w/ a narrow range, suggesting supply is still present)
  4. No Demand
  5. Trap UpMove
  6. Hidden test showing strength
  7. EvR is showing further distribution w/ smart money selling into the gap higher.
  8. Test on average volume
  9. Diminished range but increase in volume. More selling & weak response to the test

The price action hasn't started rolling over yet. Typically I would wait for a No Demand test of the line below bar #7

However, if I zoom out a bit, it's clear that price isn't exploring new highs, but rather retesting an old one:

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In my limited experiences, my current sentiment is that retests don't redistribute as much as they toe tap the line and head in the other direction in a hurry. What would you do in this situation? There's clear weakness in the BG imo. Price hasn't rolled over yet, but it is retesting a prior high w/ waning volume... All opinions welcome
  • #35,894
  • Edited 12:54am Nov 9, 2022 12:18am | Edited 12:54am
Quoting Macallik
Question for anyone. Do you trade distributions tops differently from retests? I'm contemplating an early entry but not sure if it's sound trading or just FOMO: {image} Distribution hitting the ticker Waning volume showing sellers aren't interested Test bar (above avg volume w/ a narrow range, suggesting supply is still present) No Demand Trap UpMove Hidden test showing strength EvR is showing further distribution w/ smart money selling into the gap higher. Test on average volume Diminished range but increase in volume. More selling & weak response...
Mate you ignored me ... but dont worry i dont care about it so here maybe it helps .... i will try to explain how we trade stocks ... we trade stocks totally different than currencies or commodities ... we never short sell stocks we only buy and holding for the long term (trend following strategy) and it could be weeks or months ... to choose a stock to trade we first run fundamental screener to get potential stocks and put them in watchlist after that we run technical screener looking for pattern to buy. Currently we invest in around 15 stocks and have a watchlist of more than 30 stocks. We use money to invest in stocks from our profit trading in currencies and commodities.

Ok back to your Caterpillar, this stock was a good value investor stock still has potential to go up, its recovery from pandemic condition and because i never short sell stock i would keep it in watch list from the technical side it is at resistance area with a potential for retracement but dont see any selling pressure there, so better waiting to get an opportunity to buy. Mate, there are so many stocks out there with a good potential from technical side this stock is at resistance area maybe some investor took profit and some will hold because there is still upside target for this stock ... imho if you trade stock just pick another stock to trade there are many of them out there.

lets me show you where would my entries and potential exits and target for this stock. I may be wrong ...

Happy trading ...
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  • #35,895
  • Nov 9, 2022 9:57pm Nov 9, 2022 9:57pm
Quoting Macallik
Question for anyone...
Lets start out with VSA.

Bar 1 - Major sign of weakness, gap up on high volume is a VSA principle for start of distribution. Which you were dead on with seeing price was likely to mark up with that ND. So far price isn't responding to weakness.

Bar 7 - Same as bar 1, major weakness.

Bar 8 -Hidden test, what this bar did was dip below a SoW and ended up closing on the highs, basically as price dipped below the SoW no one sold and as a result the market was able to drive price up.

So twice now price has failed to respond to weakness. You know what they say, if price isn't weak it must be strong.

Now lets look at the fundamental side of the US stock market.

We are in the beginning stages of a recession, USD is at 4% interest rate and rumor has it in December we may see at 4.75% with the FED trying to combat inflation. I didn't actually read it, but I saw a headline for Amazon set some record for losing $1T in stock value. Now isn't the time to be buying stocks.

Weak fundamentals and CAT looks bullish isn't a great combination, Tom always says to trade in harmony with the index in this case I would be looking for a stock that looks as weak or weaker than its index.

Going back to interest rates, bonds aren't a bad idea for easy passive income. I've bought a few since interest rates have going up, I'll buy some more once we hit 5%.
  • #35,896
  • Nov 9, 2022 11:46pm Nov 9, 2022 11:46pm
"You know what they say, if price isn't weak it must be strong." is so simple but something I admittedly overlook.

Today, CAT had UHV on a narrow bar down day. It seemed excessive, like potentially accumulation so I think I'll refocus on XLE & energy-related stocks since they look primed for a No Demand retest after today's selloff.

Appreciate it as always Anotan.
  • #35,897
  • Nov 10, 2022 5:10pm Nov 10, 2022 5:10pm
Quoting Anotan
UC H1 ...
Trading against the herd isn't about taking the opposite side of their trades, its being quick to get out of losing trades and taking your time to get out of winning trades.
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  • #35,898
  • Nov 12, 2022 5:11pm Nov 12, 2022 5:11pm
"The study of responses is one of the most valuable in a Tape Reader's (Chart Reader's) education. It is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the Market."- Rollo Tape

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,899
  • Nov 13, 2022 1:11pm Nov 13, 2022 1:11pm
" A trader can make a good living trading only Up Thrusts and Springs." David Weis.

Inserted Video


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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,900
  • Nov 14, 2022 12:34am Nov 14, 2022 12:34am
Quoting HiddenGap
" A trader can make a good living trading only Up Thrusts and Springs." David Weis.
Video is unclear, it would help if the presenter used more arrows to highlight his concepts.

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Thanks for sharing, it did a great job showing how simple trading can really be.
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