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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,261
  • Nov 3, 2022 8:27am Nov 3, 2022 8:27am
All call side action can be ignored, now fotm. The goal now is to see the put spreads get to next Monday with long legs intact, in which case the p/l shown opens up to possibility of a very large (for me anyway) return. Thinking of rolling down/out the IC puts to mitigate that debit. Dynamic situation with NFP tomorrow, and BTFD always lurking....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,262
  • Nov 4, 2022 7:29pm Nov 4, 2022 7:29pm
Once again alas I get to the edge of Glory and then the market kicks me in the nuts.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,263
  • Nov 5, 2022 3:17am Nov 5, 2022 3:17am
1st cut for next week, I am bullish, but we'll re-assess come Monday......

... let's say what I imagine will happen actually comes to pass on Monday & the market gaps up 50 pts at the open. I will gap up the whole combo. Then buy the call hedge parts b4 they go up in price, and also sell the put vert b4 it cheapens. As the market goes up, sell the call vert and buy the put hedge parts. The task is to get a lot for the short verts and pay not much for the long spreads. Not always easy but you take what you can get and set it up by Monday or Tues.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,264
  • Nov 5, 2022 1:45pm Nov 5, 2022 1:45pm
BABA has been a long slide but recent rumors of the 'official' end of 0-Covid could mean some fast recovery. I wouldn't bet the farm but there are some cheap tix that could pay handsomely on this one.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,265
  • Nov 5, 2022 1:52pm Nov 5, 2022 1:52pm
dunno if this would fill for $0.05, but it would be cheap for sure. I imagine BABA could double in the next year, make it to $100 or better within the next 3 months.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,266
  • Nov 6, 2022 4:03pm Nov 6, 2022 4:03pm
...last week's setup shown for 11/7. I don't expect much, but best case will be a pull back from Friday's late advance. Worst case is a walk away with a few hundred bucks. Lots of long calls out past 4,000, for 11/7 and 11/8, their spread parts all harvested. A healthy move north will put those in some small profit, but it could add up since there are more than a few, but it'd need to be 100 pts north, asking a lot for a Monday...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,267
  • Nov 6, 2022 10:39pm Nov 6, 2022 10:39pm
Nov 11 CPI day sets up a good case for a dbl diag, as iv's will stay elevated into that day, even if spoos rises. Will check the below for no-cost entry on Monday. Definitely will spend something on tail hedges, as potential for volatility post-election is high...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,268
  • Nov 6, 2022 10:58pm Nov 6, 2022 10:58pm
Putting backspreads a day (at least) past the long leg expiry and as close inside the diagonal p/l cone as you can afford will mitigate the diagonal tail risk and possibly open up large profit off one of the ratios. The above still needs to come off 11/11, except the ratios can be left to run and manipulated after the dangerous shorts are gone.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,269
  • Nov 7, 2022 7:26pm Nov 7, 2022 7:26pm
actual SPX trade for the week. I'm leaning bullish and will add otm long calls (11/15 or later) to the mix while I can do that cheaply, maybe a few puts for the left end, for good measure
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,270
  • Nov 7, 2022 7:43pm Nov 7, 2022 7:43pm
adding 20 35c 8/15 4200 calls sweetens up the curve considerably...the shit cant print dojis forever....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,271
  • Nov 7, 2022 7:53pm Nov 7, 2022 7:53pm
Quoting PatienceFx
in MT4 when we place a stop loss then that becomes the premium we pay to take a trade - profit is unlimited and duration is unlimited in options duration is limited so this increases the risk x times for the same profit as MT4 in options premium paid is like commission paid to a broker to trade , its a game of coin toss if y`ou can earn it back so in MT4 we earn more and safely - options helps brokers cheat better
There are only about two people on this site who definitely know what they're doing and The Fool is one of them, and I'm not 100% sure about the other guy.
  • #18,272
  • Nov 7, 2022 8:23pm Nov 7, 2022 8:23pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} There are only about two people on this site who definitely know what they're doing and The Fool is one of them, and I'm not 100% sure about the other guy.
Hey, dont talk about me like Im not in the room
  • #18,273
  • Nov 7, 2022 11:36pm Nov 7, 2022 11:36pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} There are only about two people on this site who definitely know what they're doing and The Fool is one of them, and I'm not 100% sure about the other guy.
Well, thanks mate, & happy trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,274
  • Nov 8, 2022 12:13am Nov 8, 2022 12:13am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Hey, dont talk about me like Im not in the room
How you doin man? Good I hope. I am dug in here & watching the rains roll in now. Til I can't take it no more & will retreat down to SD in Jan-Feb. Trading has been a pleasure, loving all the vol. What's your outlook for the next few months? With so much shit going on in the world, I have a hard ti me thinking ahead more than a few weeks. US equities seem to be setting up for a nice Santa rally. Ukraine war though still a make or breaker. Battle for Kherson, some say, will be Putin's Stalingrad, if so could push the old nut over the edge....sad to think that the worst parts of human history keep repeating.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,275
  • Nov 8, 2022 6:26pm Nov 8, 2022 6:26pm
One breakout to 11/11, please.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,276
  • Nov 9, 2022 2:05pm Nov 9, 2022 2:05pm
Nice. I was trying my hand at double calendars last year. A little more management than I knew how to navigate. I currently have a position on of 3 separate 12-02 3 legged box spreads. Those are basically financing a put buy selling a credit spread. 360 is my aggressive target range. I'll settle for 363-365.
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  • #18,277
  • Edited 3:20pm Nov 10, 2022 2:59pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting JR97
Nice. I was trying my hand at double calendars last year. A little more management than I knew how to navigate. I currently have a position on of 3 separate 12-02 3 legged box spreads. Those are basically financing a put buy selling a credit spread. 360 is my aggressive target range. I'll settle for 363-365. {image}
...yep calendars and diagonals, especially the latter, are a pain to manage, but often it all comes down to the endgame just b4 expiry. In the combo below, the diagonal will start to hurt more and more as SPX approaches the short strike. But, in a perfect finish, SPX will be at 3,990 or so at the 11/11 close, the 11/11 short calls can be bought back for 10c, and the 4,025 11/14 long calls will sell to close for $10 or better. Anyway, that's the fantasy plan.

I appreciate you posting the trade above, I will comment pretty soon, when I have a minute....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,278
  • Nov 10, 2022 3:02pm Nov 10, 2022 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
One breakout to 11/11, please.....
this is what was expected and traded for a lowering CPI read. Hey I didn't expect a 5% jack, but I'll take it. Just need some follow through overnight and into Friday. Ideally, there will be a stalemate at 4,000 at the Friday close.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,279
  • Nov 10, 2022 3:19pm Nov 10, 2022 3:19pm
I have RUT call calendars to watch for tomorrow, also.....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,280
  • Nov 10, 2022 7:54pm Nov 10, 2022 7:54pm
This has been a wild year and I learned a thing or two. Look at that chart of IV on the weekly candle chart. 4,155 will be a 50% recovery of the entire Jan-Oct down move. I'd say that is possible in December, if the pieces keep falling into place. If we see an end to war in Ukraine, 2023 will prolly be a very positive year, maybe we can revisit 4,800 or higher.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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