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DAX Futures December 2022

  • #1,321
  • Nov 2, 2022 3:02am Nov 2, 2022 3:02am

  1. History tell us that more compressed remain prices before US FED statement/press conference, the more they will explode next

  1. Last summer rally was stopped in rough way by Jackson Hole speech late August

  1. Same for US FED meeting mid June, while on July and September markets went cautious/lower before

  1. US FED members respected silence last 2 weeks, but every time they talked before were all hawkish and tough about inflation


I dont want fall in love with any idea as this is typical main mistake of a retail trader as me, but most probably scenario is to see high prices till tonight and then everything could happen, even 4k on US SP500 and then a fall......

I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,322
  • Nov 2, 2022 3:29am Nov 2, 2022 3:29am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Target around/above 13400 zone for my DA XCFD 13297. I guess I will not trade until tonight 19CET. Better save the bullets for firewoks later........ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69m2dHpSr_4
Target just hit now at 12397, so +100 p DAX CFD=+20 pips FDXM
FLAT and day off for me until 19 CET. See you later.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,323
  • Nov 2, 2022 3:33am Nov 2, 2022 3:33am
Quoting Brixen
History tell us that more compressed remain prices before US FED statement/press conference, the more they will explode next Last summer rally was stopped in rough way by Jackson Hole speech late August Same for US FED meeting mid June, while on July and September markets went cautious/lower before US FED members respected silence last 2 weeks, but every time they talked before were all hawkish and tough about inflation I dont want fall in love with any idea as this is typical main mistake of a retail trader as me, but most probably scenario is...
Hello Brixen, I see you didn't take too much vacation yesterday. I myself used the day to read a bunch of overdue papers sitting on my desk for too long, and experiment a couple of long due ideas. It's all stuff related to AI applied to trading that I'm trying to bend enough for it to be usable. But I digress.

Back to today's business, I remember the big sell offs after the fed statement. However, when analyzing the data, we've had about 50/50 downs and ups, hence it would be dangerous to assume anything up-front. This time I would not trust the first movement either, as it could be that algos will act immediately and then reverse in a matter of minutes.

I'm looking at the earnings reaction as a proxy of mkt sentiment. It's been less harsh than expected which is something to keep in mind.

That being said, I'm still slightly short, despite my resolution to turn bullish from a few days back. The seasonals (both yearly and mid-term) are not in my favor, but as long as we're stuck in a range, although drifting upside, like we've been for a while, I can manage my exposure and vwap nicely. It's all mostly on autopilot so I don't have to spend too much time babysitting it.
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #1,324
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:14am Nov 2, 2022 11:14am
272 just bought 1 DAX CFD

As I wrote yd 13260/280 is a possible support.
But if it will not hold later, we could easily go down for at least 200 pts...
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,325
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:25am Nov 2, 2022 11:25am
Quoting Nicy
{quote} Hello Brixen, I see you didn't take too much vacation yesterday. I myself used the day to read a bunch of overdue papers sitting on my desk for too long, and experiment a couple of long due ideas. It's all stuff related to AI applied to trading that I'm trying to bend enough for it to be usable. But I digress. Back to today's business, I remember the big sell offs after the fed statement. However, when analyzing the data, we've had about 50/50 downs and ups, hence it would be dangerous to assume anything up-front. This time I would not trust...
1. I took half day friday, whole saturday and sunday, a part of monday and yd big part of the day as holiday.
So I guess it was enough as nobody pay my vacation (or last week my illness) and so I have to trade from time to time even on vacation to go ahead.

2. There is a big pressure all around about this FED meeting.
So expectations are probably too high and most of worlwide markets made astonishing rally last 2,5 weeks.
Then as you wrote, seasonality is on bull side, so buy the dips probably it's the right way to face next weeks.
But we saw in the past a real massacre, specially the day after a disappointing US FED meeting/statement.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,326
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:27am Nov 2, 2022 11:27am
Quoting Brixen
272 just bought 1 DAX CFD As I wrote yd 13260/280 is a possible support. But if it will not hold later, we could easily go down for at least 200 pts...
263 added now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,327
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:30am Nov 2, 2022 11:30am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 263 added now
257 filled too now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,328
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:31am Nov 2, 2022 11:31am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 257 filled too now
I hold now 3 DAX CFD 13264.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,329
  • Nov 2, 2022 11:44am Nov 2, 2022 11:44am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} I hold now 3 DAX CFD 13264.
Now I have 4 DA XCFD 261 as 251 was filled too last min
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,330
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:02pm Nov 2, 2022 12:02pm
The zone above 12300 level is becoming a neutral zone for now, but it could be a strong resistance too, specially if US FED dots plot will overcome 5% line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FDAXM15FF.jpg Size: 30 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,331
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:09pm Nov 2, 2022 12:09pm
Quoting Brixen
The zone above 12300 level is becoming a neutral zone for now, but it could be a strong resistance too, specially if US FED dots plot will overcome 5% line. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CNBC.PNG Size: 254 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,332
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:41pm Nov 2, 2022 12:41pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Now I have 4 DA XCFD 261 as 251 was filled too last min
291 closed 2 positions right now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,333
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:42pm Nov 2, 2022 12:42pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 291 closed 2 positions right now
+30 p x 2 DAX CFD=+60 p DAX CFD=+12 pips FDXM
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,334
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:45pm Nov 2, 2022 12:45pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Now I have 4 DA XCFD 261 as 251 was filled too last min
297 closed another DAX CFD 261 right now for +36 p DAX CFD=+7 pips FDXM

I remain with 1 DAX CFD 13261.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,335
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:51pm Nov 2, 2022 12:51pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 297 closed another DAX CFD 261 right now for +36 p DAX CFD=+7 pips FDXM I remain with 1 DAX CFD 13261.
13400 zone potential target on possible 1st spike up.

13220/190 1st potential spike down, and then 13050/090 zone. maybe something slight above 13100 zone
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,336
  • Nov 2, 2022 12:54pm Nov 2, 2022 12:54pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 13400 zone potential target on possible 1st spike up. 13220/190 1st potential spike down, and then 13050/090 zone. maybe something slight above 13100 zone
Placed some orders as indicated previous post, only DAXCFD
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,337
  • Nov 2, 2022 1:02pm Nov 2, 2022 1:02pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} 297 closed another DAX CFD 261 right now for +36 p DAX CFD=+7 pips FDXM I remain with 1 DAX CFD 13261.
Stop at be now after break up 300 zoen and target around 400 zone for my last DAX CFD 261.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,338
  • Nov 2, 2022 1:42pm Nov 2, 2022 1:42pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Stop at be now after break up 300 zoen and target around 400 zone for my last DAX CFD 261.
STOPPED OUT BUT just bought 288 FDXM now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,339
  • Nov 2, 2022 1:43pm Nov 2, 2022 1:43pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} STOPPED OUT BUT just bought 288 FDXM now
Again stop at be on break up 320/330 zone for DAX Futures
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,340
  • Nov 2, 2022 1:44pm Nov 2, 2022 1:44pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: powell1.PNG Size: 231 KB
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