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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #8,481
  • Nov 1, 2022 1:04am Nov 1, 2022 1:04am
Quoting DLTravel
{quote} Thanks a lot for your clarification Alan. It looks more clear to me. Your waves counting is also very interesting too. It seems you are using Elliott Wave Principle, an't you? Althouh in some wave counts I saw wave 2 had a violation, it exceeded the beginning of wave 1. These things lead me to the thought that your wave counts were not pure EWP. Maybe its cousin. I saw that you are using peak/trough of EMA1 to count waves, not peak/trough of price. However, if the wave count can help to eliminate the false signals of Div, and can help to...
I am only using these as a rough guide, and I am interested more in where the pivots fall rather than the wicks. For example, in an uptrend I would not short a wave 3 to 4 because I have a much better distance with 4 to 5.

However, this is always used in the context of where the EMA swing is and what price has to do to get there.
  • #8,482
  • Nov 1, 2022 1:12am Nov 1, 2022 1:12am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I am only using these as a rough guide, and I am interested more in where the pivots fall rather than the wicks. For example, in an uptrend I would not short a wave 3 to 4 because I have a much better distance with 4 to 5. However, this is always used in the context of where the EMA swing is and what price has to do to get there.
Yes, I see.
I applied your wave count style on current GU H1 chart.
Hope it is correct.
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  • #8,483
  • Nov 1, 2022 1:16am Nov 1, 2022 1:16am
See here on this trade I just closed.

Long at 2 based on the 5 min RSI bull div.

Closed on the hour. Because unsure of a pull back here. The bears may pull back to find support and this would be my number 4 ready to go long again.

I should have been in from the 1-hour div at the bottom but I was too busy snoring then.

The target should be the swing high average.
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  • #8,484
  • Nov 1, 2022 1:20am Nov 1, 2022 1:20am
As I said I will not short from position 3 so I have plenty of time for a coffee or two before continuing.
  • #8,485
  • Nov 1, 2022 3:24am Nov 1, 2022 3:24am
Very nice so thank yer Mother fer the rabbit
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  • #8,486
  • Nov 1, 2022 5:36am Nov 1, 2022 5:36am
How many up bars this is going to take is anyone's guess
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We don't want to see a pivot pull back forming point 5 yet.
  • #8,487
  • Nov 1, 2022 6:59am Nov 1, 2022 6:59am
Quoting Nala66
How many up bars this is going to take is anyone's guess {image} We don't want to see a pivot pull back forming point 5 yet.
Hi Al,

I see your target is the last EMA swing high. Do we ignore the last EMA swing low as a possible Zoo point?
I seem to be perceiving Zoo points everywhere and getting lost in the Zoo fog leading to zero trading.

A
  • #8,488
  • Nov 1, 2022 7:54am Nov 1, 2022 7:54am
Quoting Nala66
How many up bars this is going to take is anyone's guess {image} We don't want to see a pivot pull back forming point 5 yet.
Five more bars, master Alan.
  • #8,489
  • Nov 1, 2022 8:33am Nov 1, 2022 8:33am
Quoting LFrZero
{quote} Five more bars, master Alan.
This is really taking its sweet time. I'm off to bed.

It has now bounced at the R1 which it has to overcome.
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  • #8,490
  • Nov 1, 2022 8:38am Nov 1, 2022 8:38am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Hi Al, I see your target is the last EMA swing high. Do we ignore the last EMA swing low as a possible Zoo point? I seem to be perceiving Zoo points everywhere and getting lost in the Zoo fog leading to zero trading. A
Not sure what you are looking at.

On the hour you have a bull div. It has crossed the EMA and the bulls have found support. So, the target is the swing high average.

How hard can that be?

It may run into bear div in which case you would then consider the swing low average.
  • #8,491
  • Nov 1, 2022 9:11am Nov 1, 2022 9:11am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Not sure what you are looking at. On the hour you have a bull div. It has crossed the EMA and the bulls have found support. So, the target is the swing high average. How hard can that be? It may run into bear div in which case you would then consider the swing low average.
I was looking at the previous EMA swing low as a Zoo and it looks to be taking notice of it.
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  • #8,492
  • Edited 9:45am Nov 1, 2022 9:21am | Edited 9:45am
I am quite exciting with Master Alan's wave counting. Definitely I am not familiar with Alan's wave counting method, because he hasn't shared it yet (maybe he will do that someday).

I apply some EWP knowledge to try to explain the current moves of GU then can have some logic expectation on its next moves.

Starting from D1 chart. What we have in D1 chart is a confluent zone around 1.121. Various targets converge there:
- AB = CD
- Alan's Buy Triangle target
- EMA swing high
Thus, logically, we can expect a move to there to test the EMA swing high.

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But, in H4, the trend is down and price came across EMA H4. So, we can expect a pull back to D1 EMA to form wave 4 to 5.
And in somewhere nearby the D1 EMA, I will be happy to see a bull div H4, which may stop the down move and send the price back to the D1 target

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In H1 chart, the move of wave 5 seems come to an end already, and price is heading down to EMA D1 to draw the wave 5 on H4 chart

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Just my 2 cents thought
  • #8,493
  • Nov 1, 2022 9:33am Nov 1, 2022 9:33am
Quoting Nala66
How many up bars this is going to take is anyone's guess {image} We don't want to see a pivot pull back forming point 5 yet.
I am afraid, cable appears to be headed South.
Meditate -> Workout -> Good Food = Good Life!
  • #8,494
  • Nov 1, 2022 10:22am Nov 1, 2022 10:22am
I know we take no notice of news events but I think its prudent to be aware of upcoming announcements. That last Dollar news was good just before the big drop.
  • #8,495
  • Nov 1, 2022 11:44am Nov 1, 2022 11:44am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
I know we take no notice of news events but I think its prudent to be aware of upcoming announcements. That last Dollar news was good just before the big drop.

I am sure Alan would say the hints of good dollar news was right there in the charts prior.
H1 bouncing of bear support, which coincided with 50% of the latest ABCD-target. In a bearish RSI/RSI-div with a 2bar test.
Kinda bearish signs.
It has just hit the D-level on the opposite side.

All easy to spot in hindsight though I admit.
  • #8,496
  • Nov 1, 2022 4:04pm Nov 1, 2022 4:04pm
Hi Guys,

I just wondered if someone could let me know if i am drawing these ABCD patterns correctly.

It's on the 1hr timeframe these two?

All the best,
Bill
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  • #8,497
  • Nov 1, 2022 4:21pm Nov 1, 2022 4:21pm
Quoting fribes
Hi Guys, I just wondered if someone could let me know if i am drawing these ABCD patterns correctly. It's on the 1hr timeframe these two? All the best, Bill {image}
sort of matches the ABCD indi. Do we need to draw these by hand?
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  • #8,498
  • Nov 1, 2022 4:31pm Nov 1, 2022 4:31pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} sort of matches the ABCD indi. Do we need to draw these by hand? {image} {file}
Thanks Alan I tried your indi but think it was an old one. Started the system today didn't do too good but just reviewing so I can follow tracking price better etc. Think I'll write down all the points to be watching and drawing as I get to the desk in the morning.
  • #8,499
  • Nov 1, 2022 7:59pm Nov 1, 2022 7:59pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} I was looking at the previous EMA swing low as a Zoo and it looks to be taking notice of it. {image}
Well, that could well be a theory to look at but in my mind that swing has been done and dusted so move on to the next.
  • #8,500
  • Nov 1, 2022 8:03pm Nov 1, 2022 8:03pm
Quoting 40PipsAlan
I know we take no notice of news events but I think its prudent to be aware of upcoming announcements. That last Dollar news was good just before the big drop.
That may well be the case but the charts themselves tell you the move and the target location the news does none of that.
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