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Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #741
  • Edited 11:36am Oct 24, 2022 11:12am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} 1) "First trade in some time which I believe meets the rules. " this uptrend appears to be exausted. the LT guppy have become flat and horizontal. recommendation is to trade the first or second pullback. these trades have low risk, high reward. here usually the momentum is strong. 2) your entry is also at a very strong resistance ( white arrows) {image} i suggest you keep a tight stoploss. or move your stoploss near to breakeven as early as possible i may be wrong in my analysis. but watch your trade carefully
Excellent price structure analysis, Rajesh.

I find it is so easy to become entranced or captured by the indicators and forget about taking a step back to see the bigger picture. "When in doubt, zoom out".
  • #742
  • Oct 24, 2022 3:51pm Oct 24, 2022 3:51pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} 1) "First trade in some time which I believe meets the rules. " this uptrend appears to be exausted. the LT guppy have become flat and horizontal. recommendation is to trade the first or second pullback. these trades have low risk, high reward. here usually the momentum is strong. 2) your entry is also at a very strong resistance ( white arrows) {image} i suggest you keep a tight stoploss. or move your stoploss near to breakeven as early as possible i may be wrong in my analysis. but watch your trade carefully
Well spotted. How did I miss that. I am too focused on the indicators and forget the rest. Sometime I even forget to look at the RSI and just go with the channel and MA and enter the trade.
Need to focus the mind more.

Thank you Rajesh
  • #743
  • Oct 24, 2022 3:59pm Oct 24, 2022 3:59pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} It's not just you. This method seems to work optimally on H1, perhaps even lower, purely because of the frequency thing. I trade on H4, which is partly why I have not fully adopted the Walvekar method and have kept playing with variations on that theme.
I will drop down to the H1, try my luck there see if it suits me any better.
  • #744
  • Oct 26, 2022 5:14am Oct 26, 2022 5:14am
This is all about trading reversions to the mean (or pullbacks to the long-term EMAs).

This idea might sound too simple, or just plain obvious, but it is quick AND it helps avoid any distraction by whatever indicators we are using. It's a simple question: "Is price close to the EMAs?" If yes, we can have a closer look, if not, just move on.

This pair is far from the EMAs - move on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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But this pair is or has been very close to the EMAs - so it's worth a closer look.
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  • #745
  • Oct 26, 2022 10:14am Oct 26, 2022 10:14am
Quoting Bee-Hop
{quote} I will drop down to the H1, try my luck there see if it suits me any better.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily zigzag printed and stable.
daily candle bearish
H4 all mas turned bearish.
H1 first pullback ti 61.8 fib.
entry candle close at lower ema channel.
entry candle with long upper wick ... price regection. sellers dominating.
all rsi below 50. 6/12 crossover almost done

time to pull trigger.
SL and targets placed
  • #746
  • Oct 26, 2022 10:28am Oct 26, 2022 10:28am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} {image}Daily zigzag printed and stable. daily candle bearish H4 all mas turned bearish. H1 first pullback ti 61.8 fib. entry candle close at lower ema channel. entry candle with long upper wick ... price regection. sellers dominating. all rsi below 50. 6/12 crossover almost done time to pull trigger. SL and targets placed
All the best for the trade!
  • #747
  • Oct 26, 2022 11:05am Oct 26, 2022 11:05am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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momentum is weak. SL shifted to high of the channel
  • #748
  • Oct 26, 2022 11:54am Oct 26, 2022 11:54am
Quoting oohoo
walvekarraje, do you ever have losing trades? I wonder because I do get burned too often even on trades, which follow rules, like this one (long entry marked) {image}
this was my loosing trade

  • #749
  • Edited 11:07am Oct 27, 2022 10:17am | Edited 11:07am
I use stop orders for my entries to avoid getting into a trade where the pullback keeps pulling back and stops me out. Or sometimes I'll get into a trade but price gives one last spike the wrong way, stops me out and then goes the "correct" way. So how do I sit back, wait for that to happen and only then enter? (If it is at all possible to get that right).

That's what I've been practising today. On H1 so that I learn 4 times faster than on H4. Here's an example:

Price is clearly overbought as per the stochastic, but it can continue in that condition for some distance. All the stoch can do is give an indication that there is an overbought/sold condition. It is not definitive. So how far behind the action do I trail my entry? And do I tighten it up as it starts looking like price is about to move?

In this case I have been conservative. The entry is on the second closed candle, so I'm mostly out of danger of a premature entry. But there are clear signs that the dominant trend is now resuming, so I want to get in on that. So perhaps I should now move the entry to the youngest closed candle, not the second youngest. Those are the questions I have been asking myself today using these dummy entries.

I forgot to mention, but the other key question is how far to follow price before it is obvious that it's not going to work? If the price pullback crosses the long-term EMAs completely (as it does, surprisingly often, and still comes back), do you walk away as soon as it closes on the "wrong" side, or wait, or what? My view is to keep the entry at the near edge of the EMAs and, as long as the overall price structure shows that a viable trade is still possible, just to wait and see.

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  • #750
  • Oct 28, 2022 3:37am Oct 28, 2022 3:37am
We have a new downtrend, a pullback and the stochastics show a strong overbought condition. But otherwise it's beginning to look as if price is going to turn up.
I have moved my sell stop order up to follow price, but am not going further. Price must come back to me or if the current signs of price going bullish continue, I'll cancel my order.

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  • #751
  • Oct 31, 2022 2:48am Oct 31, 2022 2:48am
First trade of the week. Coming out of a strong consolidation shown by horizontal and close EMAs, then a breakout with the dominant trend, quick pullback, stochs oversold. The stop loss is well below the recent swing low. Entry using a buy stop order.

Notice that the 120 EMA, which I haven't been using recently, is below the EMAs, so in effect it's as if I added an extra EMA to the Guppy long-term line-up. Backtesting shows that this extra layer is worth waiting for.

A weakness is that the pullback did not go fully to the long-term EMAs and this might still happen
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  • #752
  • Oct 31, 2022 4:43am Oct 31, 2022 4:43am
Another one, also a JPY pair.

This pullback to the EMAs looks better than the previous example, looking stronger all round, I think. The 120 EMA in position below the GMMAs reinforces the decent uptrend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #753
  • Oct 31, 2022 9:00am Oct 31, 2022 9:00am
Quoting Spudfan
Another one, also a JPY pair. This pullback to the EMAs looks better than the previous example, looking stronger all round, I think. The 120 EMA in position below the GMMAs reinforces the decent uptrend. {image}
Both this trade and the previous one (AUDJPY) have retraced all the profit gained during the day. Both are close to B/E, both are now sitting on the EMAs. Of course I don't like this at all! But the price structure and GMMAs still look good. Only the stochs are aiming down (but I use those only for entries, nothing else). I have to trust the system now, and if it fails, walk away, there's another one tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #754
  • Nov 3, 2022 1:36am Nov 3, 2022 1:36am
I'm going to be away for a while. Good luck with your trading and see you on the other side!
  • #755
  • Edited 6:57am Nov 15, 2022 2:36am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting Spudfan
I'm going to be away for a while. Good luck with your trading and see you on the other side!
I've been doing some thinking while I am away! Firstly, enough of hiding behind my nickname. My name is Alistair and my new FF name is going to be AlistairC. As per the FF rules I can't use two usernames, so I'm going to change over to the new name soon. Not sure whether all of my Spudfan posts will automatically be updated or whether they will stay with that name.

The other thing is that I have decided to go back to using just the 8 and 21 EMAs that have been my main trading system since a long time ago. This means that I don't fully belong here any more. I will look for a suitable MA Crossover thread or maybe just start my own. This is not a rejection of the GMMAs or of the Walvekar method, not at all, it's just that we must all find what suits our personalities, mindsets and instincts. I'll remain subscribed here so I can stay in touch.

Some history behind my Spudfan name - a trader called Spudfyre came up with an amazing multi-stochastic system that I really liked but could never use successfully. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-thread-theory. The point here is that Spudfyre seemed like a special human being and I admired that, given how much ugly stuff also happens on forums like this. So I became a fan of Spud!

Good luck all!
  • #756
  • Nov 16, 2022 9:02am Nov 16, 2022 9:02am
good luck to you too
  • #757
  • Feb 20, 2023 5:53am Feb 20, 2023 5:53am
new guppy template and indicators.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: superguppy.png Size: 32 KB



1) all the rule of guppy trading system apply.
2) i recommend using this templete on M30 and above .
anyone wishing to trade lower timeframes please change the ma in color indicator setting from M30 to 0.
3) i see this chart without any candelsticks. if you want candelsticks click on the candlestick button on chart (Alt+2) click on APB button see average price bars.
4) entry rule is simple. ema100>ema>150>ema 200 go long if all mas turn blue. opposite for short. first pullback and continuation pattern is the best trade.
5) i trail my SL on ema 9.
6) for targets i use fibo tool as described somewhere in this thread.

Attached File(s)
File Type: rar super guppy.rar   118 KB | 567 downloads

  • #758
  • Feb 20, 2023 8:16am Feb 20, 2023 8:16am
Hi walvekarraje,

Thank you for your tp and indic, but seems not as your post, what I use you post super_guppy.rar file. please look the attachment.Thanks

have a nice day!
reagan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #759
  • Feb 20, 2023 8:27am Feb 20, 2023 8:27am
Quoting walvekarraje
new guppy template and indicators. {image} 1) all the rule of guppy trading system apply. 2) i recommend using this templete on M30 and above . anyone wishing to trade lower timeframes please change the ma in color indicator setting from M30 to 0. 3) i see this chart without any candelsticks. if you want candelsticks click on the candlestick button on chart (Alt+2) click on APB button see average price bars. 4) entry rule is simple. ema100>ema>150>ema 200 go long if all mas turn blue. opposite for short. first pullback and continuation pattern is...
Hi walvekarraje,

Thank you for your tp and indic, but seems not as your post, what I use you post super_guppy.rar file. please look the attachment.Thanks

have a nice day!
reagan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 微信图片_20230220221357.png Size: 74 KB
  • #760
  • Feb 20, 2023 9:02am Feb 20, 2023 9:02am
its working fine on my mt4.
i will post all the settings in few min so you can build your own templete

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