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Where's The Edge?

  • #61
  • Oct 23, 2022 5:56am Oct 23, 2022 5:56am
For me the edge is risk/reward coupled with diversification.

I always win when markets are trending and lose during consolidation phase. My risk management gives me an edge because I win more during trending that what I lose during consolidation.

Diversification gives me another edge because I don't know when a market will trend. While one consolidates, another is trending.

For me, trading is that simple.
Humility will make your life brighter than arrogance.
  • #62
  • Oct 23, 2022 6:02am Oct 23, 2022 6:02am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} The problem here is that ALL you have is open, high, close and low. And you are trying to get the edge averaging that 4 data sets different ways. asic questions. Without which it is simply impossible to trade. p.s. saying you I don't mean you, I mean dreamers around (don't call em traders, they are not).
There only 3 primary colours, yet you can see all the beautiful masterpieces hanging in all the galleries of the world worth Millions.

It is your perception of the Markets that make the trader, maths is only numerical evidence of what has just happened.

Bank traders use data but their belief about the markets make them or break them.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #63
  • Edited 6:21am Oct 23, 2022 6:10am | Edited 6:21am
they say markets are irrational ..but , No they aren't. Sure some price runs can blow through pockets of liquidity but once price stabilizes it's back to the ping pong show.If we look at the table charts on jforex we might be able to see why a computer program could keep track of precise amounts of residual liquidity. It's literally just numbers.A computer could get better odds of catching reactions off of these pockets because it could see the exact amount of liquidity being pushed into the market at any given time. We can see it on the table chart too but we aren't fast enough to keep up..i call this as edge ,..just my assumptions
Blank and Empty
  • #64
  • Oct 23, 2022 6:15am Oct 23, 2022 6:15am
Quoting ryuryu
The problem here is that ALL you have is
open, high, close and low.
And you are trying to get the edge averaging that 4 data sets in different ways.
That's all. Every indicator you are using has only open, high, close and low data.
ONLY. O N L Y There are no other data you all are analyzing.

Hi ryu,

Welcome to the conversation. Always fun to read your input.


This OHCL is also a wonderful qualitative tool, imho, would you agree.

So forget the maths, I mean just observing the candle that is. OHLC.
Reading the charts as it were.
With just our eyes.

Maybe there is an edge for a trader.
Maybe the first edge we have even been shown on the thread, a first if you like.

At least once a day, myself I find, on only the one pair I watch,
that OHLC edge.

No rigorous maths involved.
No quantified nature,
just visuals.

Like what BWilliam has posted here.
Quoting BWilliam
The output can be numerical data or a visual output, example up or down arrow symbol to represent some condition.

Add this to what Shabs recently posted, where the edge could really be us, The Trader

Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
The Human Brain is the best super computer of them all, it's a great pity that we don't harness even 10% of it's power.
Computers will do anything for us what we ask it to do,
but end of the day the analysis is from - YOU

Ryu,
with the visual concept that BWilliam has mentioned,
together with the Trader-You concept that Shabs has brought to the table

Do you think maybe you could NOW visually pick maybe one trade a day from a chart - as an edge.
  • #65
  • Oct 23, 2022 6:29am Oct 23, 2022 6:29am
There are so many edges literally thousands.
Some can read a chart, some cannot.
Those who can read and having the correct MINDSET will make it through sooner or later.

But if you have only bullcrap fillings between your ears, everything else will looks the same to you.
on a postive roll...
  • #66
  • Oct 23, 2022 6:46am Oct 23, 2022 6:46am
Quoting TimeTells
Hi ryu, Welcome to the conversation. Always fun to read your input.
Not so funny like looking at your scam drawings on historical charts based on nothing.

Quoting TimeTells
This OHCL is also a wonderful qualitative tool, imho, would you agree.
These colored rectangles called candles are to impress degen gamblers. And all the "knowledge" and "mystery" around it is purest bullshit for idiots. Candles with no vol data are the same like broken clocks - they show correct time twice a day only.

Quoting TimeTells
Maybe there is an edge for a trader. Maybe the first edge we have even been shown on the thread, a first if you like. At least once a day, myself I find, on only the one pair I watch, that OHLC edge. No rigorous maths involved.
Why then no real trades? Why demo? Why you are not trading live?

Quoting TimeTells
Ryu, with the visual concept that BWilliam has mentioned, together with the Trader-You concept that Shabs has brought to the table Do you think maybe you could NOW visually pick maybe one trade a day from a chart - as an edge.
I don't know and never saw that "concepts". And I'll not spend my time for that. Because it is obviously 100% that it is purest finest bullshit. There is no evidence that using "visual concept" it is possible to be profitable. In your dreams yes, for sure. On youtube - too. But not in real life.

But there is good news around. Trading is too hard for average gambler and that average gambler is too lazy to get his butt off the sofa. And dreams of millions using drawing tools are too strong. So real traders will always have the bread and the butter and degen gamblers will always lose.

Edge is Math.
Observer effect
  • #67
  • Oct 23, 2022 6:55am Oct 23, 2022 6:55am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
There is no evidence that using "visual concept" it is possible to be profitable.
Edge is Math.

I trade live ryu, with a real broker, but just not an Ib crypto broker

Math is edge, edge is math ???


Are you stating as a fact that Nothing else other than math can ever be traded profitably.

I use math daily (maybe 20%) but I also trade qualitatively (maybe 80% observation) daily.


If your answer is NO, YOU cannot trade visually with OHLC then don't be so concerned to say that, it is just a fact no problems.

And if you cannot trade without maths of course that is no problem, that is your trading basis.

So again, I ask you, do you think you could successfully make ONE trade a day visually is all I ask.
  • #68
  • Oct 23, 2022 7:39am Oct 23, 2022 7:39am
Quoting TimeTells
So again, I ask you, do you think you could successfully make ONE trade a day visually is all I ask.
You have 1000$. You have opened short position at 1.1111 with 5x leverage (out of 500x). Fees are 0.02%.
What will be your equity and balance if the price now is 1.2222? And if 1.0011 please too.

When you will answer this question I'll try to find time to make that one trade. But you will not answer, as usual. Correct? Instead of posting here exact number you will post 5-6 replies with another portion of blah-blah-blah. Because you don't know the answer.

I don't like to spend my time if I don't get something in return. Here all I see is lie, scam, forex fairy tales told million times and useless talks about non-existent things.
Observer effect
  • #69
  • Oct 23, 2022 7:52am Oct 23, 2022 7:52am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} These colored rectangles called candles are to impress degen gamblers. And all the "knowledge" and "mystery" around it is purest bullshit for idiots. Candles with no vol data are the same like broken clocks - they show correct time twice a day only.
With all due respect, no intention to offend ryuryu
I have been trading using candlesticks for a while now, i am fundermentalist and they are my sweet spot in major economic announcement ( entering and exiting my trades in Dead valley),
I would like to raise a question
Do candlestick worth it? .......Why........?
I know they are so many ways to take a grimpse of PA eg candlestick patterns, volume, liquidity, supply & demand, order flow etc etc etc.....
With regards
I live in the future
  • #70
  • Edited 8:41am Oct 23, 2022 8:27am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
You have 1000$. You have opened short position at 1.1111 with 5x leverage (out of 500x). Fees are 0.02%. What will be your equity and balance if the price now is 1.2222? And if 1.0011 please too. When you will answer this question I'll try to find time to make that one trade. But you will not answer, as usual. Correct? Instead of posting here exact number you will post 5-6 replies with another portion of blah-blah-blah. Because you don't know the answer. I don't like to spend my time if I don't get something in return. Here all I see is...

Hi ryu

Let’s do this, as your question has NO bearing to reality, MY reality

(1:500 hmmm okay, I can work some things out in my head about things from there, 1:500 wow okay, good luck)

(I would, by the way never open an a /c at that leverage, but believe me I understand why someone would, if you know what I mean)


I have a local a/c at 1:100 leverage

As I told Kev one day, so he could I guess verify the veracity of my statement as it was in a skype-text format to him lol.
(veracity means honesty ryu, you will know what I mean by that)


I wrote Kev that IF my a/c right now would be $50k then I would trade one single Lot per trade entry, while I may depending on my current chart observations in the flow of price above or below my entry in relation also to my mental S/L, enter with up to an extra say 3 Lots for a max total of four Lots at any one time.

AND

I will also state categorically that I would NOT use any martingale progression should price edge below my price entry point and certainly never up to a degree of say seven martingale progressions. (if YOU know what I mean).

Though I could see someone, maybe, trading a lesser (much lesser) lot size when based on that same $50k and then thinking it was smart trading to martingale after price went behind my entry in the hope that say, a delta flipped again, in my favour this time to rescue my awful trades where my delta-vol signal maybe did NOT run initially as expected to the maths only system I might have been using to effect that initial trade. But just a thought who knows really.

Sorry I digress, just trying to help some new traders comprehend what might happen in the worst of scenarios to a degen gambler trader.


SO, ryu

I have a $50k a/c and I enter 1Lot BUY at YOUR price of 1.1111
(strange price region for me hahaaa as I only trade GBPJPY but I can add up so why not lol)


Now, when price runs 5 pips further, in my favour towards YOUR price of 1.2222, I now enter with just 1 more Lot BUY

BUT for the sake of your maths test here
there is a news report scheduled in the next ¾ hour so I quickly CLOSE both my trades in profit now at 1.2204 just ahead of my Horizontal Line Target at 1.2222 which I believe price WILL reach but by closing a wee bit in advance and from my Qualitative Studies (observational) I expect again NOT to get any slippage.


Now I know how many dollars I will NET from those two trades after $7 commission per trade and a spread of say 0.1
so ryu
How much will my a/c hold after I successfully close those two winning trades.

(as a little clue, but not necessary in your test here, as to how I work out my daily profit on the one pair at each days end is I take my NET profit and divide it by my single LOT size which gives me a P figure which is ‘close enough to a pip - but that number is NOT needed for your maths test today).


Okay, how much money have I got in my account after my two successful winning trades (which I did visually, by the way, no maths this time ).

And to help you in ‘your’ answer just add the dollar profit to my original a/c balance to give you my Equity.


Then when you will answer MY question lol, I will tomorrow show you and other readers here on this thread exactly what a visual edge looks like on Chart,
and not some antsy-pantsy gibberish about EDGE IS MATH lol. I NEED the visuals hahaa .


Just for fun of course.
And as you are the maths King ryu, this will be a breeze for you, everyone will see your answer.

But.
Mate it’s 11.30pm in Oz here and I’m hitting the sack right now lol, so you have about 9 hours to go through my two winning trades and tell me what balance I am starting trading with tomorrow. I am excited to find out.

all the best
Pete
  • #71
  • Edited 10:16am Oct 23, 2022 8:36am | Edited 10:16am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Not so funny like looking at your scam drawings on historical charts based on nothing. {quote} These colored rectangles called candles are to impress degen gamblers. And all the "knowledge" and "mystery" around it is purest bullshit for idiots. Candles with no vol data are the same like broken clocks - they show correct time twice a day only.
You have OHLC & Vol. data = Well Done. I have NO doubt you are successful.

But you still rely on OHLC data to give you Stochastics, Moving Averages & lines on your charts without which you would have No Bias in the market you trade.

Your Black Box Indicator would be useless without that data ?

Other traders have a different way to anlyse data, Technical , Fundamental analysis, I think thay's great, Vive Le Difference.
That's how we grow & learn from each other,

So why call this Bull***t, have you been severely burned trading visual charts or what
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #72
  • Oct 23, 2022 8:37am Oct 23, 2022 8:37am
This thread is overall funny hehe

the "edge" is in the MATH, and data points and YES it DOES EXIST and always remember 1 thing: you trade the PRICE NOT THE TIME !!!

Time is random, price isnt
  • #73
  • Oct 23, 2022 8:53am Oct 23, 2022 8:53am
I just visit my local tarot card reader.
  • #74
  • Oct 23, 2022 9:29am Oct 23, 2022 9:29am
What is the edge this guy has?

Inserted Video
  • #75
  • Oct 23, 2022 10:20am Oct 23, 2022 10:20am
Quoting charlienoble
I just visit my local tarot card reader.
If your account is positive then that's your edge, justt don't walk on any cracks in the pavement or cross a black cat......
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #76
  • Edited 1:55pm Oct 23, 2022 10:42am | Edited 1:55pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You have 1000$. You have opened short position at 1.1111 with 5x leverage (out of 500x). Fees are 0.02%. What will be your equity and balance if the price now is 1.2222? And if 1.0011 please too. When you will answer this question I'll try to find time to make that one trade. But you will not answer, as usual. Correct? Instead of posting here exact number you will post 5-6 replies with another portion of blah-blah-blah. Because you don't know the answer. I don't like to spend my time if I don't get something in return. Here all I see is...
Top of my head :

You are trading 0.05 lots, Loss 111.1 pips = -$55.56 -$1 Equity down to $943.44
You are trading 0.05 lots, Gain 221.1 pips = + $110.55 - $1 Equity up to $1109.55

Is that correct ? My maths is a little rusty,

Edit : Decimal point error on first calc.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #77
  • Oct 23, 2022 10:56am Oct 23, 2022 10:56am
Quoting FocusWinReal
What is the edge this guy has? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmrrWnZimEQ
He's making his money sending signals to his subscribers
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #78
  • Oct 23, 2022 11:05am Oct 23, 2022 11:05am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} He's making his money sending signals to his subscribers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I live in the future
  • #79
  • Oct 23, 2022 11:39am Oct 23, 2022 11:39am
Edge? lols...

Traders NEVER have the edge.

The House owns the edge.

Traders can close trades profitably or they can close trades for a loss.

The House ALWAYS gets their cut on your trade.

Because you just never know when some ass from some central bank is going to need additional time to drop the kids off at the pool and decides to pass the time on the porcelain throne tweeting about economic / fiscal policy oblivious to the fact that such actions tend to turn the results of technical analysis into a booby trap which fills the pool for the stop hunters.
  • #80
  • Oct 23, 2022 2:30pm Oct 23, 2022 2:30pm
Quoting TonyTepeli
{quote} With all due respect, no intention to offend ryuryu I have been trading using candlesticks for a while now, i am fundermentalist and they are my sweet spot in major economic announcement ( entering and exiting my trades in Dead valley), I would like to raise a question Do candlestick worth it? .......Why........? I know they are so many ways to take a grimpse of PA eg candlestick patterns, volume, liquidity, supply & demand, order flow etc etc etc..... With regards
That is good, why not. You are using OHCL and news. This is better than just using more 168 ways to average close price. I'm talking only that candles shows nothing to analyze and all the indicators are just a way to average close price (in most cases). Sometimes it can average high, low and open, but rare.

All we have on forex is open, close, high and low. There is no other data available. You said candlestick patterns, volume, liquidity, supply & demand, orderflow. But in this list only patterns exist. There are no volume data on forex, so there are no data about liquidity, supply-demand and the orderflow. All these "lines" are just dreams based on nothing. When TimeTells say there is supply or demand it is his dream. Because there are no data available to say that. Just dream based on nothing.

Liquidity is liquidity. It is not a line or arrow on the historical charts. For example today it was a day of new coin named APT. I don't know what the heck it is. But the volume of that coin was bigger than BTC and ETH volume. And if yesterday it was a day of XRP, then today XRP will smash you if you will decide to trade it with no volume data analysis.

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Now tell me please how you can pick correct asset to trade using drawing tools? Are you kidding me? There are 25+ 50x leverage coins and 100+ 25x.

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You feel lucky? Let's play the game how to check volume with no volume data. Market conditions changes every few hours. It is just impossible to trade with no vol data. It called gambling, it is not trading.
Observer effect
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