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Where's The Edge?

  • #21
  • Edited Oct 22, 2022 12:07am Oct 21, 2022 11:32pm | Edited Oct 22, 2022 12:07am
Quoting GEfx
Not to spoil the stated purpose of this thread, but in reality, there is no such thing as an edge. An edge implies that, if you can discover this one thing about the forex (I assume we're talking about trading the forex, while logged onto Forex Factory), and learn to repeatedly exploit that sigular thing, then you will, over time and within some probability distribution, achieve success. This is not possible. An edge does not exist in the forex. Searching for/believing in an edge (which does not exist) is strictly within the preview of retail forex....

Seriously what a Load of RUBBISH !!!! Time to go and find what the meaning of an edge is??? Every trader that makes money has an edge - the edge is what makes them money. An edge is a pattern that repeats over and over again. There is lots and lots of edges in trading. I will give u one since u have no idea - TRENDS - they happen in all timeframes and in all markets and happen every day of the year and back in time hundreds of years ago. U just need to define what a trend is and enter on pullbacks with a plan and u will make money in the long run - u heard of the Turtle traders - very famous - they traded trends and their edge was trends.

I turned 10k into a 7 figure amount using trends as my edge - i have been trading for 16 years and trade fulltime - to say their is no edges is a joke and i shake my head in disbelief. The one secret is i trade shares as forex is mission impossible with only 1% making money longer term(10 years) while 99% fail. At least in shares it is around 20% odds of making money. Forex does not trend as well as shares as no currency trends can go up 1000% a year like shares can as shares have no limit they can go up where forex does have a limit.

Lithium mining shares have went up heaps in the last couple of years and defied the downturn in shares like this example. Heaps of mining shares going up on the ASX (aussie martket - ) i trade both long term and short term trends
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PLS - Monthly - PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED.png Size: 34 KB

To make money in trading u must have an edge - in a trend if u buy pullbacks u risk a small amount to make a bigger return holding while the trend continues - trends give u a good risk to reward and u can easily get 3 to 1 to even 10 to 1 return plus on risk to make money over a series of trades (100 trades) this is how u grow an account over the longer term. Easy to do but most won't do it as they want 100% winners which is impossible. To make big money u will have losing trades but the winners are far bigger than the losing trades
Trading trends is easy to do but most refuse to do the easy stuff as they think more complex is better which is a joke - They want the HOLY GRAIL which does not exist
  • #22
  • Oct 22, 2022 12:06am Oct 22, 2022 12:06am
Quoting Steven1
{quote} Every trader that makes money has an edge - the edge is what makes them money.
Couldn't have said it better my self...
ri · skuht
  • #23
  • Oct 22, 2022 12:19am Oct 22, 2022 12:19am
Quoting Steven1
{quote}
The one secret is i trade shares as forex is mission impossible with only 1% making money longer term(10 years) while 99% fail.
They want the HOLY GRAIL which does not exist

Quoting GEfx
Not to spoil the stated purpose of this thread, but in reality, there is no such thing as an edge.
I assume we're talking about trading the forex, while logged onto Forex Factory)


Well, now we are getting somewhere.

Steven is saying GEfx is talking a load of rubbish when GEfx posted there is no real edge in Forex.
Then Steven says forex is actually not included in his edge theory as Forex is mission impossible.

I don't see Steven as posting a contradiction, as such, just a misdirection of the purpose of his statement.


Myself, I can only talk about forex at this point.

RCuit agrees with BW (and likely Geps) regarding Quantative studies as being THE sole edge.
(Of course when folks agree with each other they merely assume they are "singularly" correct which is always interesting to read their opinions).

But it likely does NOT help any new trader waiting, in hope, to see this always to be hidden miracle called EDGE.
(and for whatever reason someone who has it wishes to hide it).


The group above have indicated that ONLY Quantative Assessment is in where THE edge lies.
But they did not find it, imho (this, their personal quantitative edge)
UNTIL they looked and searched FOR THEMSELVES.

Which brings us straight back to Shabs
Where he initially put his case that the real edge IS,
and by definition,
the TRADER THEMSELVES


eg the Traders who went down the quantative path, well likely the edge did not turn up in a Fedex parcel on their door.
It was the Trader themselves, who was the edge, and that then went searching.

(and naturally, any assumption that only a quantatative assessment can ever be edge is just an incomplete clarity,
but I can't budge lol until either the trader themselves is proven factually as non existant or is accepted into the mix

- and IF accepted into the mix then maybe we can apportion a percentage guestimate as to how much IS the Trader and how much left is the quantatative).
  • #24
  • Oct 22, 2022 12:42am Oct 22, 2022 12:42am
Quoting TimeTells
To me when I read them, and these are all long term experienced posters, they all (tho referring to it in a slightly different but NOT disparate methodologies) come back to the very thing Shabs pointed out. The trader themselves. Each "methodology' is used individually to arrive at a personal conclusion. So again, to move INTO edge can we get past this "the trader themselves" consideration and what facts or data can we present to eliminate the Trader from the equation?
maybe what you said is relevant to manual trading. is it relevant to automated trading...

I spent some time analyzing data and preparing EAs. then EAs lives its own life - I do not interfere in EA trading in any way (I forget that particular EA even exists.. just let it work, keep VPS up, and running). therefore "edge" is already implemented in EA. This leads to the assumption that "edge" is not in me. Ok I created EA - but you know I create tons of EAs and I dont know which EA will be profitable. I bet on the entire portfolio of my EAs and not a particular entity

For example on account in my signature 51 EAs setups running. Some win, some lose, some break-even. The entire portfolio on this particular account is profitable. And I am now building an ecosystem of such accounts - on each running bunch of EAs. Is that an "edge" that I do? Some it will call "pure luck"... I call it simple usage of math (fluctuations, probabilities, etc)
  • #25
  • Oct 22, 2022 12:49am Oct 22, 2022 12:49am
Quoting gepards
{quote} maybe what you said is relevant to manual trading. is it relevant to automated trading...
For example on account in my signature 51 EAs setups running. Some win, some lose, some break-even. The entire portfolio on this particular account is profitable. And I am now building an ecosystem of such accounts - on each running bunch of EAs. Is that an "edge" that I do? Some it will call "pure luck"... I call it simple usage of math (fluctuations, probabilities, etc)

Excellent gepards, I may be wrong but imho and based only on what you have stated about your multiple EAs as an ecosystem

YOU sir

are the EDGE, you are the creator, instigator, assessor, reviewer, refiner etc, ie

The Trader themself
  • #26
  • Edited 1:18am Oct 22, 2022 1:01am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Well, now we are getting somewhere. Steven is saying GEfx is talking a load of rubbish when GEfx posted there is no real edge in Forex. Then Steven says forex is actually not included in his edge theory as Forex is mission impossible. I don't see Steven as posting a contradiction, as such, just a misdirection of the purpose of his statement.
The way i see things with trading i want to make the most easy way of making money that i can do and follow a plan on for my personal style. Trading is finding your own trading style that u will follow a plan on. The problem with forex is this - my timezone is London session is good for trading. The problem is some days the trend can start early and some days it can be rangebound for the 2 hours before the move happens - i can't be looking at a screen for hours with nothing happening. Also there is lots of fakeouts and whipsaws and news announcements that all affect movement that shares don't have. I need a trend to make money and forex is tough for me - i tried 3 times 10 years ago but only broke even. The problem with forex is no big moves happen each day - When i buy shares for a short term trade i look for a minimum 10% move in a few days - forex does not do that - i grew my account from 10k to 7 figures with ZERO leverage - if forex had no leverage it would be impossible to trade as how often does a move bigger than 1% happen on the daily charts? very rare - realize the current forex movement will compress when markets go into a uptrend - the daily range movement is important for risk to reward - small movement equals small reward for risk in forex which is a BIG REASON why trading forex is so tough - u need big reward to risk to be successful long term to make money. With shares i have 2000 to choose from so can the very best of the best to trade and also there is only a 6 hour window open each day. It is easy to find shares to trade. With markets down for the year if a share is up for the year it is outperforming and a potential to be traded. forex is rangebound a lot of the time - money can be made in forex but for me i think shares is much easier to trade - that is only my opinion but realize trading is finding the market and timeframe that u find most suitable - everybody will have their own preference
  • #27
  • Oct 22, 2022 1:38am Oct 22, 2022 1:38am
Quoting Steven1
{quote}
Trading is finding your own trading style that u will follow a plan on.
Also there is lots of fakeouts and whipsaws and news announcements that all affect movement that shares don't have.
money can be made in forex but for me i think shares is much easier to trade -
that is only my opinion but realize trading is finding the market and timeframe that u find most suitable - everybody will have their own preference

Hi Steve, excellent writeup which I enjoyed to read, thank you.

Your first line in the above

"Trading is finding your own trading style that u will follow a plan on".

Is AGAIN imho referencing The Trader Themself so you, me, geps hopefully, & shabs maybe are all heading down a path that
HAS the Trader as themself in as part of the mix of any EDGE we find for ourselves.

When new folks to forex come in they will look at what threads & systems etc are available, as they believe the answer is in there.
Eventually,(and after many heartaches we ALL went through initially) a trader comes to realise the only added extra advantage we have is ourselves
and what we can make of the whole operations from our own perspective. Then there is breakthrough, then there is realisations and whether
we go down one route or another we must rely on US as the "master edge" imo else we will jump from one system/indi etc to the next (in vain).

There is not, imho, only ONE EDGE to be found,
or as you mentioned any Holy Grail.

We trade on probabilities, within our own methods.

All the best
Pete

ps
The Fakeouts & Whipsaws you say you don't get in shares is terrific while I HAVE made my own home in and amongst these behaviours I call Market Mechanics.
These are Qualitative Studies and can be achieved by the Trader themselves, while also using Quantatative Data of course but just NOT exclusively, a combination of both if you like. (and I think all traders do this to an extent even if they are not aware they do it).
  • #28
  • Edited 3:40am Oct 22, 2022 2:44am | Edited 3:40am
You guys are deep,
you make me feel like I am coming from "Bongo bongo land" ..........
Well can't refrain but accept the fact that " the edge" do exist.
Mathematically proven edge= holy grail...

Does anyone knows why George Soros never wrote a book about his strategies?
Well here is earthed trading quotes of high profitable traders ever walked this planet may be just may be we will find in them what we are looking for......

Jim Simons we have three criteria " if publicly traded, liquid, and amenable we trade it" ......

Stanley druckernmiller " keep your ego aside while trading, if you allow looses to affect your judgement you'll inevitably make a big mistake"......

Bill Lipschutz " it is very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time , which by definition is what you are doing if you are successful trader"

Bruce kovner" swings trader wait for high and lows to excute his entry"...."fundermentalist who say they are not going to pay attention to charts are like doctors who say they are not going to take patients temperature".............

. The HEISENBERG principle
" If something is closely observed, the odds are it is going to be altered in the process, the more the pattern is observed by speculators the more you have the false signals......."
The more the market is product of non speculative activity the more the significance of techinical breakout.

I may single handedly come to conclusion that the "edge" we are looking for is catalyst that makes the odds in our favor, but i guess I'll be wrong to make such convoluted idea , we think differently,we trade differently we lose differently as much as we profit........

Is the edge within traders themselves......?
I really don't know, let's leave enough space for others to contribute on this matter.
With regards
I live in the future
  • #29
  • Oct 22, 2022 2:50am Oct 22, 2022 2:50am
Quoting Steven1
{quote} Seriously what a Load of RUBBISH !!!! Time to go and find what the meaning of an edge is??? Every trader that makes money has an edge - the edge is what makes them money. An edge is a pattern that repeats over and over again. There is lots and lots of edges in trading. I will give u one since u have no idea - TRENDS - they happen in all timeframes and in all markets and happen every day of the year and back in time hundreds of years ago. U just need to define what a trend is and enter on pullbacks with a plan and u will make money in the...
Finding the edge is what makes the trader - searching for it = chance to study market structure. As you have said far better than most. Trade fast, hard and heavy thats what the edge gives you as well you know. I believe you might agree as Edges are different one thing they are is a repeat zone.
  • #30
  • Oct 22, 2022 3:16am Oct 22, 2022 3:16am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Only trading the markets where you can see the Buyers or Sellers orders just being executed. The edge becomes the trader's ability to understand if any momentum exists and being able to monetize this movement. READ THE BOODLY TAPE It worked 100 years ago and it still works today
Quote
Renaissance's RIEF, RIDA, and RIDGE funds returned a negative 19%, 31%, and 31% in 2020, while the hedge fund's Medallion strategy generated positive returns of 76% over the same time period. That discrepancy seemed to have woken investors up to the fact that the strategy employed by Renaissance's Medallion fund is not even close to that of its three public funds.
Renaissance has always told its investors that its public funds employ a different trading strategy than its private Medallion fund, but not all clients believed them, according to comments...

you can find the full article here.

they use only quantitative data analysis. they do not care about fundamentals - pure math.

I wonder how that 76% was made... it is abnormal consistency for Medallion fund. Those 3 losers is something different, but why to make different if something is consistently working i dont know - maybe because of diversification, layer on layer on layer. 1st layer - 1 EA, 2nd layer - 50 EAs on 1 accounts, 3rd layer - 10 accounts with 50 EAs each, 4rd layer - 100 accounts etc etc etc
  • #31
  • Oct 22, 2022 3:38am Oct 22, 2022 3:38am
Edge is out of FF. Just grab few interesting ideas and develop yours. Mistakes give an edge.
  • #32
  • Edited 6:13am Oct 22, 2022 4:16am | Edited 6:13am
Everytime this type of topic comes up, there's this typical naysaying - it can't be done, it's impossible, nobody know, there's no need for ...

Impossible is where the golden opportunity lie.
Imo anything is possible if you set your mind to it, don't let this impossible talk stymie your potential. Walk away from this impossible naysaying, never inherit other people's negative vibes, it's theirs leave it in their good hands.

There's so much naysaying, market is random, it's impossible. Recognise and detect such negative vibes and flee.

Set your own narrative that talk about the possibles.
And do yourself a favour, surround yourself with like minded individuals that think the same, it's possible. Keep yourself surrounded with the good vibes.

One more thing, you must be aware this Forex business deal with predicting the future event, impossible task. Ofc it is impossible, else all of us traders are millionaires. Only few are able to thrive under this impossible requirement. If you think, any of these strategies on FF, books and YouTube give you this edge solution to this impossible prediction that you can copy from, you are entitled to your opinion. More power to you if that's your story.

I believe in original content that you generate from between your ears which is different from what's available in public domain. Your trading edge that don't yet exist in the forex trading world - that's objectively quantified - the measurable criteria that's required. You have to find yourself and be you. And there's no need to prove to anyone other than to yourself. You'll be a fool to try convince others. If you can figure out the edge you're no fool.

I've wrote my piece, moving on.

Cheers.

*** 2nd video, 11:15 onwards
"If you really want to learn and get better at anything, you have any chance at becoming an expert at anything, you have to be willing to be uncomfortable because thinking takes effort."

"Do what you hate to do but do like you love it." ------- unquote Mike Tyson

Inserted Video

Inserted Video
Know what you trade
  • #33
  • Oct 22, 2022 4:39am Oct 22, 2022 4:39am
Quoting BWilliam
Everytime this type of topic comes up, there's this typical naysaying - it can't be done, it's impossible, nobody know, there's no need for ... Impossible is where the golden opportunity lie. Imo anything is possible if you set your mind to it, don't let this impossible talk stymie your potential. Walk away from this impossible naysaying, never inherit other people's negative vibes, it's theirs leave it in their good hands. There's so much naysaying, market is random, it's impossible. Recognise and detect such negative vibes and flee. Set your own...
it is amazing. Total synchronicity. See we wrote a similar ideas at the same time Look I posted minutes ago this thread...wow.
  • #34
  • Oct 22, 2022 7:51am Oct 22, 2022 7:51am
Quoting Riskcuit
It can't be in risk management... It can't be in an indicator... It can't be in the trader... So where the **** is it!?!
Edge is math!

99% here don't know basic math. All they can is to post bullshit day by day with poker faces. But if ask them they will fail to answer basic math questions.
Observer effect
  • #35
  • Oct 22, 2022 8:15am Oct 22, 2022 8:15am
Someone says do not bother, you can just use MACD and RSI then "work on yourself". There are a lot of edges. You can use stochastics too or coin a new term for a market pattern because it doesn't matter, it is always you vs you. Might as well punch yourself in the mirror so "the you" won't any more bother your trading.

Then there are the restless, savage, unrelenting men and women of science, who wants to know the true reason, the root cause, the true nature of the market.

Always thinking, is there a specific reason why price moves from here or is it just random? or perhaps sometimes there is a reason and sometimes random?

This is the edge we all want to know. The true nature of the market.

After this knowledge, we can predict or exploit the market. Eureka moment.

*Some people just gave up, as long as winning is more than losing a little bit, it doesn't matter. A scientific mind cannot tolerate this. The truth door must be ripped open.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #36
  • Oct 22, 2022 8:22am Oct 22, 2022 8:22am
Quoting Steven1
{quote} Seriously what a Load of RUBBISH !!!!

Time to go and find what the meaning of an edge is???

i have been trading for 16 years and trade fulltime - to say their is no edges is a joke and i shake my head in disbelief.

The one secret is i trade shares as forex is mission impossible with only 1% making money longer term(10 years) while 99% fail.
I reread my post after reading yours. I was sure I had clearly stated that my comments were directed towards forex trading, and had provided a definition of the term edge. With that in mind, if you reread my post, you'll see that I framed my comments to prevent someone from jumping to the conclusion to which you jumped.

You also helped make my point. As a trader who successfully exploits an edge in your trading activities,, you admit that your edge is not an edge in the forex, and 99% of traders fail at finding an edge. From my viewpoint, they fail because there is no edge in the forex (as defined in my first post).
  • #37
  • Oct 22, 2022 10:56am Oct 22, 2022 10:56am
Great thread bias of course as the content is total simplicity in one word - Edge.
  • #38
  • Oct 22, 2022 11:12am Oct 22, 2022 11:12am
The edge has to be You, yourself.

You are the edge.

You have to develop a strategy that works for you, your personality, your skill level, your patience level, your risk level.
That is your edge, how you handle the trade. Being able to make decisions under pressure.

Forex Market goes Up, Down or Sideways, surely pretty much any system could work, produce the same results, with only 3 possible outcomes ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #39
  • Oct 22, 2022 1:15pm Oct 22, 2022 1:15pm
Yep thats why the only indicator you use is your mind. They might say thats pure price action. All you need is that which you can see before you. Wonder if a stratergy is part of an Edge.
  • #40
  • Oct 22, 2022 1:32pm Oct 22, 2022 1:32pm
there is no single edge but an individual armed with

patience
the willingness to accept losses
reasonable risk management for the style of trading that suites the trader best
a solid system to used to identify entries and exists that is consistently implemented
a market that is suitable for your trading style ie some markets trend more than others etc

most people fail at the first two items and never REALLY move to the point of figuring out the rest. If the trader is able to master the first two items and work to figure out the last 3 they can be very very successful, unfortunately most people that enter trading are looking for the shortcut and I can say with certainty that there are NONE.
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