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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #161
  • Oct 17, 2022 10:49am Oct 17, 2022 10:49am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} You can put a name on it if you want. I never pigeonhole myself to one style of trading, as trades can go from scalping, day, swing, position, investment. people like to have a title, I just like money, yes lucky today, can close trades at end of day if you wish, what I would say is carry on with the demo for a month and then you may have a different view as you gain more experience ....
Agreed all what you've said.
But, I like the RED highlight statement.

Must be an enjoyable ways of trading, as one of the famous GOAT once said...........
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #162
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:17am Oct 17, 2022 11:17am
Quoting billytt
Hi Wave, i didnt realise you had your own thread. I'm not stalking you lol. it is refreshing to see you trade on the same wave length as myself... which indies you you use (((JOKING))) as you know. Trade well,.
If you have anything to contribute, please do
  • #163
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:20am Oct 17, 2022 11:20am
Quoting billytt
Hi Wave, i didnt realise you had your own thread. I'm not stalking you lol. it is refreshing to see you trade on the same wave length as myself... which indies you you use (((JOKING))) as you know. Trade well,.
hey billy! good to see u here!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #164
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:21am Oct 17, 2022 11:21am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Agreed all what you've said. But, I like the RED highlight statement. Must be an enjoyable ways of trading, as one of the famous GOAT once said........... {image}
Always said there are two types of traders on this forum, them who want money and them who want to predict and be right.....to everyone "which one are you"
  • #165
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:23am Oct 17, 2022 11:23am
One more before teatime

TRADE 12...U/J....LONG no sl tp +3 ...14875
  • #166
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:25am Oct 17, 2022 11:25am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Always said there are two types of traders on this forum, them who want money and them who want to predict and be right.....to everyone "which one are"
i grew up in a buddhist environment, "being right" and "ego" was always irrelevant. i am a researcher by type, i am interested in the matter. i am a trader since i breathe;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #167
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:37am Oct 17, 2022 11:37am
Quoting Waveskierrob
One more before teatime TRADE 12...U/J....LONG no sl tp +3 ...14875
LONG tp hit +3
  • #168
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:38am Oct 17, 2022 11:38am
Running total +87
  • #169
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:46am Oct 17, 2022 11:46am
Quoting Waveskierrob
Running total +87
Wish i had that patience of yours. Saw you eat a tiny tp of 3pips - /+ through out the day. I can never trade like this. As it would make me go crazy at the end of the day.
Mind i asked?
What to do to get that level of patience?

Apologize in advance, since question is not related to topic of hedging.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #170
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:09pm Oct 17, 2022 12:09pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Wish i had that patience of yours. Saw you eat a tiny tp of 3pips - /+ through out the day. I can never trade like this. As it would make me go crazy at the end of the day. Mind i asked? What to do to get that level of patience? Apologize in advance, since question is not related to topic of hedging.
Patience very relevant to this thread.....where do I get it from, tired of losing ...
  • #171
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:21pm Oct 17, 2022 12:21pm
Quoting Strykes
Great thread, hope to learn from the different ideas here. Although you strictly say 'Trade without Prediction', I could offer you a theoretical way of hedging with some prediction. 1. Buy on support 2. Replace stoploss with a sell order below support 3. TP (2) next level support 4a. Buy if price bounces off support to TP original (1) trade (either (4) TP at (1) and (1) keeps original TP, or (1) & (4) are TP together at (1) entry (so (1) is BE trade)). 4b. Price continues going down and therefore open sell trade (therefore (1) is still opened) 5....
Complete analysis underway... More to come in the subsequent "Educational Post 2". I hope it will resolve potential gaps in your strategy. Input by other members will be a plus. Sit tight till I get back shortly.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #172
  • Oct 17, 2022 12:46pm Oct 17, 2022 12:46pm
Quoting Strykes
Great thread, hope to learn from the different ideas here. Although you strictly say 'Trade without Prediction', I could offer you a theoretical way of hedging with some prediction. 1. Buy on support 2. Replace stoploss with a sell order below support 3. TP (2) next level support 4a. Buy if price bounces off support to TP original (1) trade (either (4) TP at (1) and (1) keeps original TP, or (1) & (4) are TP together at (1) entry (so (1) is BE trade)). 4b. Price continues going down and therefore open sell trade (therefore (1) is still opened) 5....
EDUCATIONAL POST # 2


There are a lot of aspects of this strategy to analyze completely. I am breaking them down to their constituent parts. You may name them as per your TASTE. I will give you my view of how I am seeing it and what is the best way to look at a hedging system from a TPP (third person perspective). By TPP, I mean if you are neither a buyer nor a seller of an underlying instrument at the time of analyzing the chart.

Assumptions

This section deals with the assumptions which you hold in your mind before looking for any trigger or reaching a point of decision to either buy or sell.

1. Mean Position

Here I can see from the picture posted by you that you are assuming the price to revert to its mean position. But you didn’t sort what if it didn’t? Did you evaluate this aspect before developing your system? I think this is the point where most of the traders are hit by their own presumptions. The first and foremost point of interest is to avoid presumptions and see the chart from an objective stand point without expecting the price to hit projected levels, at least in the initial days of your plan.

2. Chart Structure

This part of your strategy is great. You assume that a chart shows structural aspects of the market where the potential areas of liquidity are and where the SR levels are. The problem which I am thinking about at this point is that you are amalgamating the chart structure and then looking for the first assumption to be fulfilled to completely close your hedge trade set (By Hedge Trade Set I mean that you are grouping your trades into down trend buy sells and uptrend buy sells – More on this later since it is an advanced topic and cannot be covered within few lines)

3. Direct Hedge

A lot of traders think that a direct hedge is like buying and selling the underlying instrument or asset at the same price level whereas a few of them believe that there may be a gap between a sell and a buy order based on certain parameters. Both of them are good but to me personally I think a direct hedge at the same price level is considered more fatal than a direct hedge with a gap. Your system shows that that there is a gap in the direct hedge which is a great aspect of your assumption about direct hedge.

to be continued in the next post....
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #173
  • Oct 17, 2022 1:04pm Oct 17, 2022 1:04pm
Quoting WizardTrade
{quote} EDUCATIONAL POST # 2 There are a lot of aspects of this strategy to analyze completely. I am breaking them down to their constituent parts. You may name them as per your TASTE. I will give you my view of how I am seeing it and what is the best way to look at a hedging system from a TPP (third person perspective). By TPP, I mean if you are neither a buyer nor a seller of an underlying instrument at the time of analyzing the chart. Assumptions This section deals with the assumptions which you hold in your mind before looking for any trigger...
Educational Post 3: WHAT IT IS & WHAT IT IS NOT

Hedging technique is a Poka-yoke (Term Taken from Toyota Production Systems – TPS, which deals with mistake-proofing) technique which helps you when the initial trade i.e., buy or sell doesn’t work out well. Instead of using an SL you use a counter order to cover the loss or at least some of it and then let the counter trade run in the intended direction of the market flow.

Hedging technique is not a trading strategy but a trading philosophy of dealing with the losing trades when you have not expected the moves counter to your positions held. This technique requires a good homework with a demo account at least for 3-4 weeks of trading then to see how to develop your lot sizing schedule to cover losing trades and turn them into winners.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #174
  • Oct 17, 2022 1:06pm Oct 17, 2022 1:06pm
Quoting WizardTrade
{quote} Educational Post 3: WHAT IT IS & WHAT IT IS NOT Hedging technique is a Poka-yoke (Term Taken from Toyota Production Systems – TPS, which deals with mistake-proofing) technique which helps you when the initial trade i.e., buy or sell doesn’t work out well. Instead of using an SL you use a counter order to cover the loss or at least some of it and then let the counter trade run in the intended direction of the market flow. Hedging technique is not a trading strategy but a trading philosophy of dealing with the losing trades when you have not...
My next two posts will cover the Role of Chart Structure and Money Management. The last post in the series will be all visual to elaborate the concept of your hedging strategy and tweaks needed to make it a robust system including hints for the lot sizing.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #175
  • Oct 17, 2022 9:16pm Oct 17, 2022 9:16pm
For whom want to try this strategy (in demo first please) here the EA (put this in "Expert" folder, not Script).

source : https://www.mql5.com/en/code/14371

@Rob you could put this EA on first page if you want.

R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea_image.png Size: 8 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 buysell.mq4   18 KB | 398 downloads
File Type: ex4 buysell.ex4   33 KB | 316 downloads
  • #176
  • Oct 17, 2022 9:58pm Oct 17, 2022 9:58pm
Quoting randu
For whom want to try this strategy (in demo first please) here the EA (put this in "Expert" folder, not Script). source : https://www.mql5.com/en/code/14371 @Rob you could put this EA on first page if you want. R. {file} {file} {image}
This EA or the strategy is bound to fail in trending markets where if mean position is not attained for a longer period of time as famous saying goes "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". We have to circumvent this problem. Think around those lines and you can make this strategy a holy grail.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #177
  • Oct 17, 2022 10:42pm Oct 17, 2022 10:42pm
Quoting WizardTrade
{quote} This EA or the strategy is bound to fail in trending markets where if mean position is not attained for a longer period of time as famous saying goes "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". We have to circumvent this problem. Think around those lines and you can make this strategy a holy grail.
I just want to help with those EA which open Buy and open Sell at the same time.
As some people says, this is not as common trading.
For me it's just fun gaming.

Just my 2 cent :
You could try it at Daily Open candle. Open same position with TP 3 pips both side

Sorry for my bad englis....





for bonus.... +95 while typing this comments
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  • #178
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:08pm Oct 17, 2022 11:08pm
Quoting randu
{quote} I just want to help with those EA which open Buy and open Sell at the same time. As some people says, this is not as common trading. For me it's just fun gaming. Just my 2 cent : You could try it at Daily Open candle. Open same position with TP 3 pips both side Sorry for my bad englis.... for bonus.... +95 while typing this comments {image}
Nice profit. Looking forward to this strategy's long term success. Let's see.

Nvm about English It's the brain that matters the most.
WARNING: This post warps space and time in its vicinity.
  • #179
  • Oct 17, 2022 11:58pm Oct 17, 2022 11:58pm
Right now its looking great strategy but here is few more questions??

1. MM what is the maximum lot size to trade a 100$ account according to you?
2. what is the best way to tackle trending market?? (Because sometime we thought at certain point market reverse but it don't so how we tackle that point)
3. Till now what pairs you find best to trade that strategy?
  • #180
  • Oct 18, 2022 12:33am Oct 18, 2022 12:33am
To Waveskierrob,

Very interesting yesterday for you. Great job in making those pips (even though it's demo account). What I would love to see is for you to purposely trade big news events, be on the wrong side of the market and attempt to hedge your way back to profits. Basically it's a good simulation of those 'fat fingers' or unannounced news that shoots price up and down massively.

One question is why GU? I would've thought Indices like US30 would be good with direct hedging/scalping due to very low spreads relatively speaking. Spreads/Commission on 1min charts on Indices is like a 5min charts for GU (at least for me). Unless you're focused more on hedging rather than looking at different markets.

Keep it up!
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