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DislikedI am back- testing 25 Pairs, mostly uncorrelated. TF: H12 R=2% September. Rules: Entry: as stated on page 1, exactly. Exit: No hard close on candle color, instead, move the stop to above/below that candle. Move the stop again on the next adverse color candle if the market kept running in my favor. Inside candles with color changes are ignored. Not finished yet, but the first 8 trades gave a whopping: 25% growth. 88% winning rate. 1,86 Expectancy. H12 is easy to control, no sleeping with open trades, the only danger is the Sunday night open (EU),...Ignored
DislikedFinished back-testing. Results are more sobering: 11% 42% winners. 0,22 Expectancy 24 Trades Unexpectedly, using a Stochastic/Rsi filter on the 2,5 Days (half a week). 18% 88% winners. Only 8 trades. Clearly better, filtering. My guess is people can use the filter that suits them best: Fibos, trend lines, SR, Planetary cycles... The key is that the basic strategy works. Both back-tests were positive. Even 11% is an excellent performance. Compound it triples the account in a year. Btw. I was using Oanda, one of the brokers I have, where you can calculate...Ignored
DislikedI am back- testing 25 Pairs, mostly uncorrelated. TF: H12 R=2% September. Rules: Entry: as stated on page 1, exactly. Exit: No hard close on candle color, instead, move the stop to above/below that candle. Move the stop again on the next adverse color candle if the market kept running in my favor. Inside candles with color changes are ignored. Not finished yet, but the first 8 trades gave a whopping: 25% growth. 88% winning rate. 1,86 Expectancy. H12 is easy to control, no sleeping with open trades, the only danger is the Sunday night open (EU),...Ignored
DislikedHello all, Wondering if anyone else here is having the same thoughts as me? Maybe because the entry rules are so straightforward, I find myself taking too many trades in my back testing - good ones and bad ones. So I catch some very good ones but give too many pips back with bad ones. Posts tend to concentrate on entered trades - but equally important in any system is learning which trades NOT to take. And thats the part Im still struggling with. Can I ask that people also post the trades that they dont take? The ones that meet the entry rules...Ignored
DislikedHi ALI in the post #6 folllowing this your image you wrote: {image} if your win rate around 50% only you will make money because winner more bigger than losers in the example of this loser setup i will go out before hitting st because the ap candle color change so if you risk 1% you may losse in this trade 0.5% and this winner may give you around 2 % gain here my question: when you close the trade before hitting the SL did you wait the candle close or as soon the candle changed color you closed the trade? Thanks PaoloIgnored
DislikedHi ALI in the post #6 folllowing this your image you wrote: {image} if your win rate around 50% only you will make money because winner more bigger than losers in the example of this loser setup i will go out before hitting st because the ap candle color change so if you risk 1% you may losse in this trade 0.5% and this winner may give you around 2 % gain here my question: when you close the trade before hitting the SL did you wait the candle close or as soon the candle changed color you closed the trade? Thanks PaoloIgnored
Disliked{quote} "Exit: No hard close on candle color, instead, move the stop to above/below that candle." This is giving a new perspective. Thanks man. Do you move the stop above/below the candle that changes color only, or do you do that as well to candles going your direction? You know, to trail the position once it has gained quite the pip amount.Ignored
DislikedHi guys, I've started this strategy this week and took my first trade yesterday. I had to close it down due to color change. I'm eager to hear some feedback on the trade. It close down for a small profit. Thanks for the info Ali I'm glad I run into this system I really like it because it's on the 4hour timeframe so I can have my dayjob and trade at the same time! {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} You must be sick of me at this point.. Apologies but I have to raise my hand again. I mentioned this on my post #664. To recap: If we want to buy, Donchian must be green, price must be above the average channel, and MACD must cross UP, right? MACD is the key for me. If the cross up happens while it is still below zero level, I won't take it. I only take it if MACD crosses up AND crosses the zero level as well (or it touches the zero level when crossing up). The reason?...Ignored
DislikedMy humble 2 cents about this system. - It works! (thanks again Ali). PROVIDED one respects the rules. Like Ali says, this is just a mind game. Interestingly, the original famous Turtle System, was a test made on newbies, decades ago, aiming to prove, that although the system was solid, hardly anybody would follow the rules or make money. Also important, if you have a basket of 10 or 20 pairs, you must make sure you donīt miss any opportunity. Already those days, just missing one trade (the test lasted for a year, some trades for months), would make...Ignored
QuoteDisliked"Also important, if you have a basket of 10 or 20 pairs, you must make sure you donīt miss any opportunity. Already those days, just missing one trade (the test lasted for a year, some trades for months), would make or break the result!!!"
I am emphasizing on number 3.
In Ali's system, we KNOW that the system is profitable, we KNOW that the win rate is around 60% (and winners are bigger than the losers), but we DON'T know when it will win and when it will lose.
How do we overcome that? By taking every signal that presents itself to you! (Making your sample size larger and larger)
Really, after you have a full comprehension of the system (which don't take a long time), it's just a mind game and a probability game.