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The Swamp

  • #104,941
  • Oct 15, 2022 2:58pm Oct 15, 2022 2:58pm
Jinping is expected to be back...Time for Aud to fly with huge wings
China expected to grant Xi 5 more years, no major changes | AP News
  • #104,942
  • Oct 16, 2022 3:45pm Oct 16, 2022 3:45pm
Quoting sidhgenius
Jinping is expected to be back...Time for Aud to fly with huge wings China expected to grant Xi 5 more years, no major changes | AP News
Is 5 more years going to stop the Covid lockdown?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,943
  • Oct 16, 2022 3:47pm Oct 16, 2022 3:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Is 5 more years going to stop the Covid lockdown?
Might take forever!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #104,944
  • Oct 16, 2022 4:01pm Oct 16, 2022 4:01pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} Might take forever!
The world is talking about a recession. A recession will hurt commodity export economies more.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,945
  • Oct 16, 2022 4:16pm Oct 16, 2022 4:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The world is talking about a recession. A recession will hurt commodity export economies more.
If Xi secured a 3rd term and we see a policy change to open up, it will certainly help. But will he? Don’t know. Unlike GFC back in 2008, we don’t see a cooperation between the US and China
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #104,946
  • Oct 16, 2022 6:53pm Oct 16, 2022 6:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {quote} My targets are against the trend. Plus the news this week is probably pointing to another 3/4% raise. Know this before trading with what i posted. I did think pa would go to .9602/slip before a rise (earlier this week). But when it closed above, .9702 yesterday. After cpi, I had to risk it. This is playing off .9595/slip to me. .9595 is in a 22 year algo. I think it deserves respect. The last one like it bounced 1250 pips. It was much less old than 22 years. That leads me to believe 1.0349 or 1.0805 is reasonable. Now if the week...
1250/2 =625. .9595+.0625=1.022. That's 1/2 of the last similar situation. That's below the usual pong moves like 1.0349, 1.0805.5 or 1.1xx. If the past repeats. A bounce from that .9595 is still in the future. A bounce large enough to put. A large amount of shorts underwater hundreds of pips. For this to be wrong, pa needs to be below .9702. Being wrong will not hurt my feelings. I'm just stating with areas like .9595 has done in the past. Market makers know its there. Disguising what they are doing, is to their advantage. Pa is gearing up to a large move. Had pa reached .9602 last week i would a lot more confident. Especially with Fridays close above .9702.
I may be wrong. But there's no wiggle room for me. I dont like being against the trend, Cot, and a .75% expected interest rate raise. I could just wait for a bounce to short. The potential was worth a shot for me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,947
  • Oct 16, 2022 7:29pm Oct 16, 2022 7:29pm
Eur/gbp may have a sweet spot to short it. If last weeks low holds, it should hit .8737.. Short TP .850x area. .8737/42ish sweet spot.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,948
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:08pm Oct 16, 2022 9:08pm
gold to me is looking to go to 1659.68/1662.07. I'm opting out of shorting ATM. I would like to short 1673 R. I may be wrong. This week 1673.5 may be R. 1678.x overshoot.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,949
  • Oct 16, 2022 9:27pm Oct 16, 2022 9:27pm
1.0349 would be nice. For dumb money to break even.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,950
  • Oct 16, 2022 10:12pm Oct 16, 2022 10:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
1.0349 would be nice. For dumb money to break even. {image}
"Avg. Long Price / Distance From Price" just increased with 100 pips which means a lot of lower levels long trades were closed while the higher levels long trades are still alive with high DD...also a real break even is far away from 1.0349 level because of many days of negative swap (there are already 9 weeks with price under the 1.0349 level which means 63 pips away for a real break even ~ 1.0412)...
I am who I am
  • #104,951
  • Oct 17, 2022 2:13am Oct 17, 2022 2:13am
Quoting gatorinla
I closed my longs.. Back to the salt mine Sunday-Monday. {image}
time to slowly put them back in just until the end of the month looks good I could be very wrong on this. You feedback is appreciated!
  • #104,952
  • Oct 17, 2022 4:06am Oct 17, 2022 4:06am
Quoting imwim
{quote} "Avg. Long Price / Distance From Price" just increased with 100 pips which means a lot of lower levels long trades were closed while the higher levels long trades are still alive with high DD...also a real break even is far away from 1.0349 level because of many days of negative swap (there are already 9 weeks with price under the 1.0349 level which means 63 pips away for a real break even ~ 1.0412)...
That's close to where I figure too. To hold those longs. I also figure many are hedging. They are holding zombie trades.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,953
  • Oct 17, 2022 4:11am Oct 17, 2022 4:11am
Not a lot of news this week
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,954
  • Edited 4:57am Oct 17, 2022 4:46am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting q_import
{quote} time to slowly put them back in just until the end of the month looks good I could be very wrong on this. You feedback is appreciated!
.9595/slip was a position long to me. Its been a few weeks now. Nothing changed. Possible position short 1.0349/slip 1.0805.5/35. Another of equal size as .9595 may be forming at 1.1xx. Tp below 93xx/slip

1.0349+ wont show up in most info till its too late. Its already took 1/2 that move.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,955
  • Oct 17, 2022 5:05am Oct 17, 2022 5:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} .9595/slip was a position long to me. Its been a few weeks now. Nothing changed. Possible position short 1.0349/slip 1.0805.5/35. Another of equal size as .9595 may be forming at 1.1xx. Tp below 93xx/slip 1.0349+ wont show up in most info till its too late. Its already took 1/2 that move. {image}
1.0805.5 pool

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,956
  • Oct 17, 2022 5:18am Oct 17, 2022 5:18am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,957
  • Oct 17, 2022 5:27am Oct 17, 2022 5:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0805.5 pool {image}
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R 50% .9767.7. It could be an entry later.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,958
  • Oct 17, 2022 5:37am Oct 17, 2022 5:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image}R 50% .9767.7. It could be an entry later. {image}
Thanks for sharing Gator, interesting chart!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #104,959
  • Oct 17, 2022 7:26am Oct 17, 2022 7:26am
Quoting johncen
{quote} Thanks for sharing Gator, interesting chart!
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,960
  • Oct 17, 2022 7:28am Oct 17, 2022 7:28am
news in a minute.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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