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Attachments: The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)
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The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)

  • #681
  • Oct 13, 2022 8:08pm Oct 13, 2022 8:08pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Hi Lynnc, if you are using MT4 can you share the MACD indicator with alert? Tks P.
Have this MACD, maybe you interested
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 36 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_Histogram_WIS mtf.mq4   16 KB | 195 downloads
  • #682
  • Oct 13, 2022 8:13pm Oct 13, 2022 8:13pm
Quoting Alihelmy123
this week not good in trading many big movement in the two direction it is like playing bing bongi am only +1.5%{image}
Weeks like this exists, yeah.
Market was cooking for the CPI news for the whole week.
But you still up by 1.5% which is a good news! First priority is to protect our capital, right.
  • #683
  • Edited 9:47pm Oct 13, 2022 8:22pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting BigKev67
Hello all, I’m enjoying working my way through this strategy and backtesting it - but I’ve noticed that the exit rule of waiting for a colour change leaves a lot of pips on the table as candles retrace in the second half of the hour (I trade off the 1 hour timeframe). I presume the logic of this is that waiting for the colour change is a way to stay in trades longer so you recoup your lost pips when there is a long trend. What are people’s views about the exit rules? Are most of you trading the strategy as written or are there any of you trying...
Hi Big Kev, this is a good question.
Honestly I had the same question mark in my head as well.

Your logic is correct. This system is designed to minimize loss and to ride the trend when there is a long one.
But reading the way you said "candle retrace in the second half of the hour", correct me if I'm wrong but I assume you close your position when candle changes color BUT have not closed yet? Because the decision to close a position is to wait until the candle closes first.

Also the introduction of 5 EMA can help you a lot. If you're in a position then candle changes color but does NOT break the 5 EMA, it could continue to your direction.
Only when candle changes color, closes while breaking the 5 EMA, that you close your position.

As for the alternative exit rules, as I have said before in this thread, I am now setting a fixed pips SL and TP in every trade I take.
But this will deviate from the original system Ali is sharing us, so I will respect him and will not discuss about it.
  • #684
  • Edited 9:48pm Oct 13, 2022 8:32pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Thanks for the clear answer, sorry for late but it a busy week... I will do my change using 1H timeframe to see immediatly my trade (i need a quick feedback) I have to many manoths and 2 years of not consistency, i do not believe in me! I need to rebuild my credibility at my eys of myself. I though the behavioural lesson of ALI and a rigorous method would help me...i keep fighting. I will do my back test as you wrote, great method yours of using both configuration (HA and normal candles) here my 3 lost of this week: vertical red line was...
Hi Paolo,

Ahh, I understand what caused those trades to be losses.
From this whole conversation, we know that there are two types of setup:

  1. A+ setup: when candles align with the Donchian and average channel, MACD crosses, AND it also crosses over the zero level
  2. B setup: the one that you had with all those trades; the MACD crosses but did not cross over the zero level

Pardon me for the random naming of the setups.

Ali actually did give you the advice: only take the A+ setup!
In your case here, you were simply in the wrong side and timing of the market, not because you misinterpret the system.

And if you want, you could follow my way as well on post #664: if MACD is above the zero level, only look for buys. If it is below the zero level, only look for sells. Of course the candles + Donchian + average channel must align as well.

  • #685
  • Oct 14, 2022 12:53am Oct 14, 2022 12:53am
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Hi Lynnc, if you are using MT4 can you share the MACD indicator with alert? Tks P.
Yes of course. This is the one I am using. When the macd crosses it shows red or green. It makes it easier for me to see how long ago the cross was and then I just have to look at when its near or crossing the zero line. By the way, once there is a signal, I switch to m5 to make sure its not due a pullback first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macd.png Size: 17 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MACD_OsMA_4ColorH_2LVar_mtf alerts nmc.ex4   32 KB | 256 downloads
  • #686
  • Oct 14, 2022 1:20am Oct 14, 2022 1:20am
I also think the support and resistance on this system is very very good and thats how I treat it. I mark on H1 the H4 and D1 lines to be sure I am not going to run into something on a higher timeframe before I take the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: resistance.png Size: 17 KB
  • #687
  • Oct 14, 2022 1:37am Oct 14, 2022 1:37am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Hi Big Kev, this is a good question. Honestly I had the same question mark in my head as well. Your logic is correct. This system is designed to minimize loss and to ride the trend when there is a long one. But reading the way you said "candle retrace in the second half of the hour", correct me if I'm wrong but I assume you close your position when candle changes color BUT have not closed yet? Because the decision to close a position is to wait until the candle closes first. Also the introduction of 5 EMA can help you a lot. If you're in...
Thanks JPN. You’ve been a huge help.

I’ve been closing my positions at the close of the candle, as per the rules. What I meant was more the observation that I’ve seen some quite big retracements go against me in the second half of the hour candle, so you’re sitting there watching your pips drain away! I think I might be a man after your own heart in terms of trading psychology - ie I don’t like watching drawdowns so maybe a fixed TP might be more my style.
  • #688
  • Oct 14, 2022 3:29am Oct 14, 2022 3:29am
Quoting BigKev67
{quote} Thanks JPN. You’ve been a huge help. I’ve been closing my positions at the close of the candle, as per the rules. What I meant was more the observation that I’ve seen some quite big retracements go against me in the second half of the hour candle, so you’re sitting there watching your pips drain away! I think I might be a man after your own heart in terms of trading psychology - ie I don’t like watching drawdowns so maybe a fixed TP might be more my style.
I don't wait for an opposite colour to close, I come out if there is a reversal APB (wicks both top and bottom) even if its the same colour I will come out at its close, especially if the macd has also crossed.
  • #689
  • Oct 14, 2022 7:55am Oct 14, 2022 7:55am
Quoting BigKev67
{quote} Thanks JPN. You’ve been a huge help. I’ve been closing my positions at the close of the candle, as per the rules. What I meant was more the observation that I’ve seen some quite big retracements go against me in the second half of the hour candle, so you’re sitting there watching your pips drain away! I think I might be a man after your own heart in terms of trading psychology - ie I don’t like watching drawdowns so maybe a fixed TP might be more my style.
Now I get what you meant, sorry for the misunderstanding.
Yup, at the end of the day trading system should follow your character and your life circumstance, not the other way around.
You can try back/forward testing the fixed pips system to see if it really suits you.

(Psstt... 15 pips SL/30 pips TP on 1H, 30 pips SL/60 pips TP on 4H on major pair besides the JPY pair, might work)

Did anybody hear a "psstt" or anything?
No? Just me?
Okay then let's move on with our day.

Have a nice weekend, everyone.
  • #690
  • Oct 14, 2022 1:06pm Oct 14, 2022 1:06pm
Hello, i follow this here now for 4 weeks. Tremendous results. I have done it on germany dax40. What is about other indices? Do you mean, that this is at all a good idea?
  • #691
  • Oct 14, 2022 2:14pm Oct 14, 2022 2:14pm
Quoting 1236789
{quote} Have this MACD, maybe you interested {file} {image}
Tks I will try it.
  • #692
  • Oct 14, 2022 2:18pm Oct 14, 2022 2:18pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Hi Paolo, Ahh, I understand what caused those trades to be losses. From this whole conversation, we know that there are two types of setup: A+ setup: when candles align with the Donchian and average channel, MACD crosses, AND it also crosses over the zero level B setup: the one that you had with all those trades; the MACD crosses but did not cross over the zero level Pardon me for the random naming of the setups. Ali actually did give you the advice: only take the A+ setup! In your case here, you were simply in the wrong side and timing...
Tks JPN as always you provide to me always great knolewdge.

Paolo
  • #693
  • Oct 14, 2022 2:24pm Oct 14, 2022 2:24pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Hi Big Kev, this is a good question. Honestly I had the same question mark in my head as well. Your logic is correct. This system is designed to minimize loss and to ride the trend when there is a long one. But reading the way you said "candle retrace in the second half of the hour", correct me if I'm wrong but I assume you close your position when candle changes color BUT have not closed yet? Because the decision to close a position is to wait until the candle closes first. Also the introduction of 5 EMA can help you a lot. If you're in...
It helped a lot this post but still confusion on an important detail, i ask to ALI confirm:

Question:
Have i to close the trade (in lost for example) when candle changed color BUT WAITING THE CLOSE OF the candle it self as JPN said or cut off the lost even if the candle is not closed)?

Sorry JPN i do not want to bypass you, it just a confirm.

Good weekend

Paolo
  • #694
  • Oct 14, 2022 2:26pm Oct 14, 2022 2:26pm
Quoting lynnc
{quote} Yes of course. This is the one I am using. When the macd crosses it shows red or green. It makes it easier for me to see how long ago the cross was and then I just have to look at when its near or crossing the zero line. By the way, once there is a signal, I switch to m5 to make sure its not due a pullback first. {file} {image}
tks Lync i appreciate your help.

Paolo
  • #695
  • Oct 14, 2022 8:36pm Oct 14, 2022 8:36pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} It helped a lot this post but still confusion on an important detail, i ask to ALI confirm: Question: Have i to close the trade (in lost for example) when candle changed color BUT WAITING THE CLOSE OF the candle it self as JPN said or cut off the lost even if the candle is not closed)? Sorry JPN i do not want to bypass you, it just a confirm. Good weekend Paolo
No problem, Paolo.
You did the right think by asking the source directly.
Have a great weekend.
  • #696
  • Oct 14, 2022 8:39pm Oct 14, 2022 8:39pm
Quoting admiral1
Hello, i follow this here now for 4 weeks. Tremendous results. I have done it on germany dax40. What is about other indices? Do you mean, that this is at all a good idea?
To me it's applicable on all pairs and indices.
Tried learning the system on US30 and oil, it worked. But I don't trade indices or commodity so I stay in forex.
  • #697
  • Oct 15, 2022 7:52am Oct 15, 2022 7:52am
The 7 Principles of Consistency
Mark Douglas talks about 7 principles which help beginning traders develop into consistent winners over time. The following are his list of guiding principles…
1. I objectively identify my edges
2. I predefine the risk of every trade
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles. I never violate them.
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #698
  • Oct 15, 2022 7:53am Oct 15, 2022 7:53am
Eliminate the Emotional Risk
Thinking in terms of probabilities also helps remove the emotional risk of trading. Mark Douglas talks about the 5 Fundamental Truths, they are as follows…
1. Anything can happen
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5. Every moment in the market is unique
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #699
  • Oct 15, 2022 7:57am Oct 15, 2022 7:57am
Think in Sample Sizes
It is extremely important to look at the markets in terms of probabilities. This will help you understand your edge and calm your emotions from trade to trade. I like to think in sample sizes of 20 trades. Rather than look at my profit/loss for the day or week, I monitor my p/l in ticks for the last 20 trades.
Each individual trade you make is simply one of thousands of trades that you will make over the course of your trading. If you keep this in mind and limit your risk on every trade then mentally there is no need to fret over one or two losing trades, or even a string of losing trades.
Monitor your last 20 trades. What is your worst string of 20 trades? What is your best string of 20 trades? The numbers may surprise you.
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #700
  • Oct 15, 2022 4:02pm Oct 15, 2022 4:02pm
the cycle of doom

Inserted Video
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
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