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The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)

  • #661
  • Oct 11, 2022 7:59pm Oct 11, 2022 7:59pm
Quoting Alihelmy123
{quote} When i told you cut losess if candle color change 90 % don't do this because emotions effect them
I appreciate that you share a lot of psychology.

There is a concept that has been floating around FF for a few years now, that most retail traders entries are completely random. If that's true then how are traders consistently losing money from random entries? Their emotions.
  • #662
  • Oct 12, 2022 12:19am Oct 12, 2022 12:19am
Quoting andy1946
{quote} Also yesterday, I have another set up ➭ Closed 1/2 trade = +2R ➭ The remaining 1/2 trades have moved SL to breakeven and still continue to run. - CHFJPY H1 {image}
A trade that touches your BE level then goes straight to TP.
This is how our emotion is tested hahaha.
Have a nice trading week, Andy.
  • #663
  • Oct 12, 2022 12:56am Oct 12, 2022 12:56am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Yes, this happens. Also because it's daily time frame, losing streak could feel like forever because the length of each trade. Heck, even winning trades could feel like forever as well. For me personally, that's why I never take daily TF trade hahaha. If you need immediate feedback for your trade, 1H is the best time frame to trade on. But narrow down your watchlist if you ever decide to do so. I don't post chart screenshot anymore because I have stated that the way I do the trade, although still within this system, is different (so I don't...
Hi JPN,
Do you take all macd line crosses or just those that also cross the zero-level ?
Thanks for your continuous input here - precious!
  • #664
  • Oct 12, 2022 3:09am Oct 12, 2022 3:09am
Quoting Yaya21
{quote} Hi JPN, Do you take all macd line crosses or just those that also cross the zero-level ? Thanks for your continuous input here - precious!
Hi Yaya how are you, hope everything is going fine there!
Ah yes, so after some time with this system, I noticed some patterns and now here's how I approach the MACD.

  1. If MACD is ABOVE the zero level, I only look for BUY (meaning I look for a cross UP while MACD is already above zero level)

    1. I also do Ali's original system about MACD crossing up the zero level

  2. If MACD is BELOW the zero level, I only look for SELL (meaning I look for a cross DOWN while MACD is already below zero level)

    1. Same thing, I also take the trade when MACD is crossing down the zero level

Of course, price action must be in correlation with the MACD (if MACD shows buy signal, Donchian trend must be green and price should be above the average channel; you know, the basic thing mentioned on page 1).

  • #665
  • Oct 12, 2022 10:36am Oct 12, 2022 10:36am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Yes, this happens. Also because it's daily time frame, losing streak could feel like forever because the length of each trade. Heck, even winning trades could feel like forever as well. For me personally, that's why I never take daily TF trade hahaha. If you need immediate feedback for your trade, 1H is the best time frame to trade on. But narrow down your watchlist if you ever decide to do so. I don't post chart screenshot anymore because I have stated that the way I do the trade, although still within this system, is different (so I don't...
Thanks my friend, sorry for late answer.

We are very similar dear JPNtrader as character.
I am following the ALI dictat but i saw sometimes, for example the daily time frame i closed this week in lost, at some point they were in profit but i tried to fight my istinct to close the trade as ALI advice us but at the end waiting, i closed all three trades in lost.(all 3 at some point in profit but reverted in lost changing color of the candle)
I will try to use 1h even if i think is full of noise that timeframe but not sure. It may be i will try both 1h and 4h.
I have big indecision if set a fixed take profit (the only reason is the fear of revert and loose if at some point in profit the trade)

How are you doing the back test? I ask this because if you work on old chart the they are not so reliable or, i expain better: The MACD repaint so what you see on old chart is not the same MACD of the instant you dive in the trade. Do you use programming language to backtest the strategy? I can program in python.
I wll try to back test the strategy and exit with fixed pips looking if it is so consitent as ALI rules (cut quicly the loos and surf the win)
Thanks for youe time i appreciate your post and your way of thinking.
Another trade on daily revert to lost.
This week -3.5% on four trade, only one is still open (eurusd on daily)
Sorry for my bad english.
Paolo
  • #666
  • Oct 12, 2022 10:42am Oct 12, 2022 10:42am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Hi Yaya how are you, hope everything is going fine there! Ah yes, so after some time with this system, I noticed some patterns and now here's how I approach the MACD. If MACD is ABOVE the zero level, I only look for BUY (meaning I look for a cross UP while MACD is already above zero level) I also do Ali's original system about MACD crossing up the zero level If MACD is BELOW the zero level, I only look for SELL (meaning I look for a cross DOWN while MACD is already below zero level) Same thing, I also take the trade when MACD is crossing...
Hi JPN,
i know you are not posting image anymore but can you post an image just for teaching pourpose on the 2 type of crosses you cited above? Just to be sure if i understood well.

Thanks

Paolo
  • #667
  • Oct 12, 2022 9:26pm Oct 12, 2022 9:26pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Thanks my friend, sorry for late answer. We are very similar dear JPNtrader as character. I am following the ALI dictat but i saw sometimes, for example the daily time frame i closed this week in lost, at some point they were in profit but i tried to fight my istinct to close the trade as ALI advice us but at the end waiting, i closed all three trades in lost.(all 3 at some point in profit but reverted in lost changing color of the candle) I will try to use 1h even if i think is full of noise that timeframe but not sure. It may be i will...
This is probably just me but I don't think 1H has many noises. And it's just right when you are daytrading, and/or need an immediate feedback about your trading.
I came from my experience of trading the seconds time frame and 1m time frame so I know what a "real" noise is (but again, market is fractal, the thing you see on 1m happens as well on 1D).

For backtest, I don't use a specific software. I just use Tradingview. But since Tradingview cannot backtest heikin ashi candle, I use two layouts: left layout in heikin ashi, right layout in normal Japanese candle (that shows the same pairs, same time frame, same everything as the heikin ashi).
I just run through the chart for the week, find any signal in the heikin ashi candle, then use the Japanese candle to place my buy/sell tool at the right spot (because in heikin ashi, we don't know where exactly is the price opening/closing).
This way I could gather my backtesting data.

You had a minus 3.5% out of four trade. Could you tell us where the entry point and SL for those trades? With a chart screenshot.

Quoting paolo7
{quote} Hi JPN, i know you are not posting image anymore but can you post an image just for teaching pourpose on the 2 type of crosses you cited above? Just to be sure if i understood well. Thanks Paolo
A quick two examples of the types of trade I take.
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The first one is when MACD crosses the zero level, and the candles are also showing the right color, and also in the right position (in this case, it's a buy scenario, signal candle is above the average channel)

The second one is the scenario where MACD is already above/below the zero level. We see that candle is already below average channel, MACD is also already below the zero level, and there is a cross down on the MACD. If MACD crosses up while it is still below zero level, I won't take the trade.

In fact, for the second scenario, in my rule I would not take this.
I only take trades where the signal candle is the first or the second candle that changes color.
In this one, it's already the third one.

Hope this clarifies!
  • #668
  • Edited 12:50am Oct 13, 2022 12:10am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} The second one is the scenario where MACD is already above/below the zero level. We see that candle is already below average channel, MACD is also already below the zero level, and there is a cross down on the MACD. If MACD crosses up while it is still below zero level, I won't take the trade. In fact, for the second scenario, in my rule I would not take this. I only take trades where the signal candle is the first or the second candle that changes color. In this one, it's already the third one. Hope this clarifies!
Hi Jpntrader, I tried to emulate your very neat and organized chart as much as mt4 will allow, you are absolutely right with regard to having both HA and classic candlestick charts side by side coz the HA does not tell you the Open/ close information unless you overlay the OHLC bar on top. So the first trade is after the second HA candle which is right after the macd cross above zero, so perfect timing. The second trade however you placed your line on the third candle but the crossing below the zero happened one candle before(dotted line), so the entry would have been there, right?
thanks again for all your input and sharing your mindset when trading, much appreciated.
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A few days down the road the signal candle shown on HA would not have been a good entry despite the perfect macd above zero crossing ( see the classic candle chart). A better entry would have been 4 candles later (dotted line).
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  • #669
  • Oct 13, 2022 12:59am Oct 13, 2022 12:59am
Quoting lbtrader
{quote} Hi Jpntrader, I tried to emulate your very neat and organized chart as much as mt4 will allow, you are absolutely right with regard to having both HA and classic candlestick charts side by side coz the HA does not tell you the Open/ close information unless you overlay the OHLC bar on top. So the first trade is after the second HA candle which is right after the macd cross above zero, so perfect timing. The second trade however you placed your line on the third candle but the crossing below the zero happened one candle before(dotted line),...
Hello lbtrader

"you are absolutely right with regard to having both HA and classic candlestick charts side by side coz the HA does not tell you the Open/ close information unless you overlay the OHLC bar on top."
Yeah this is the exact reason. That's why there are lots of times where in HA candle, it seems like the price just pulled back a bit, but in reality (in Japanese candle) SL was already hit

"The second trade however you placed your line on the third candle but the crossing below the zero happened one candle before(dotted line), so the entry would have been there, right?"
Aah.. I might have made a mistake.
Yes I think if I zoom in, the MACD down-cross actually happened one candle before, which is the second candle that changes color, but the cross is so subtle that I didn't see it.
Therefore, it is a valid trade.
Thank you for correcting me!

But yeah, if the MACD cross happen but the candle is already the third one that changes color, almost every time I would skip the trade.

A few days down the road the signal candle shown on HA would not have been a good entry despite the perfect macd above zero crossing
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For me, I would not take it if the candle does not break the average channel, no matter how good the MACD cross is.
Experience taught me the hard way
  • #670
  • Oct 13, 2022 1:23am Oct 13, 2022 1:23am
Quoting jpntrader
For me, I would not take it if the candle does not break the average channel, no matter how good the MACD cross is. Experience taught me the hard way
Not only that, but the DC (sorry not shown here)was still bearish, so absolutely right, on the 4 th candle it turns bullish and the trade would be with the trend.
  • #671
  • Oct 13, 2022 3:55am Oct 13, 2022 3:55am
Hello all,
I’m enjoying working my way through this strategy and backtesting it - but I’ve noticed that the exit rule of waiting for a colour change leaves a lot of pips on the table as candles retrace in the second half of the hour (I trade off the 1 hour timeframe).
I presume the logic of this is that waiting for the colour change is a way to stay in trades longer so you recoup your lost pips when there is a long trend. What are people’s views about the exit rules? Are most of you trading the strategy as written or are there any of you trying alternative exit rules?
  • #672
  • Oct 13, 2022 5:23am Oct 13, 2022 5:23am
I like this strategy on the H1. I like to have an alert on the cross so I am using another macd which makes it easier to see the cross. Last week I was using it on a separate account to try it out. These were my stats from Friday 30th September till Thursday 6th October. Not a huge sample but a very good start.

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  • #673
  • Oct 13, 2022 9:18am Oct 13, 2022 9:18am
this week not good in trading many big movement in the two direction it is like playing bing bongi am only +1.5%
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Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #674
  • Edited 11:31am Oct 13, 2022 10:46am | Edited 11:31am
Hi,
Very interesting system! I think this could work but I seem to run into a problem. Whenever I try to use your template I get a black screen. Does anybody know how I can fix this. I've put all the indicators in the indicator folder and the template in the template folder but for some reason I get a black screen. Please can somebody help me?

Or does anybody have some set files on the indicators? Thanks!
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  • #675
  • Oct 13, 2022 1:12pm Oct 13, 2022 1:12pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} This is probably just me but I don't think 1H has many noises. And it's just right when you are daytrading, and/or need an immediate feedback about your trading. I came from my experience of trading the seconds time frame and 1m time frame so I know what a "real" noise is (but again, market is fractal, the thing you see on 1m happens as well on 1D). For backtest, I don't use a specific software. I just use Tradingview. But since Tradingview cannot backtest heikin ashi candle, I use two layouts: left layout in heikin ashi, right layout in...

Thanks for the clear answer, sorry for late but it a busy week...
I will do my change using 1H timeframe to see immediatly my trade (i need a quick feedback)
I have to many manoths and 2 years of not consistency, i do not believe in me! I need to rebuild my credibility at my eys of myself.
I though the behavioural lesson of ALI and a rigorous method would help me...i keep fighting.
I will do my back test as you wrote, great method yours of using both configuration (HA and normal candles)

here my 3 lost of this week: vertical red line was my entry, exit on change color
very bad week!
last week 2 win 3 lost
this week this three lost and one still open, all on daily

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thanks JPN

i will keep following your experience and smart advice.
Paolo
  • #676
  • Oct 13, 2022 1:16pm Oct 13, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting Alihelmy123
this week not good in trading many big movement in the two direction it is like playing bing bongi am only +1.5%{image}
If a boss like you had a week so and so a scarse trader as me can be happy to have lost only 3.5%

Why are you making more than 5 trades per week? just because it is FOMC race or because you are the real boss and can make whatever you want? Simple curiosity

Thanks for sharing

Paolo
  • #677
  • Oct 13, 2022 1:19pm Oct 13, 2022 1:19pm
Quoting lynnc
I like this strategy on the H1. I like to have an alert on the cross so I am using another macd which makes it easier to see the cross. Last week I was using it on a separate account to try it out. These were my stats from Friday 30th September till Thursday 6th October. Not a huge sample but a very good start. {image}{image}
Hi Lynnc,

if you are using MT4 can you share the MACD indicator with alert?

Tks

P.
  • #678
  • Oct 13, 2022 2:17pm Oct 13, 2022 2:17pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} If a boss like you had a week so and so a scarse trader as me can be happy to have lost only 3.5% Why are you making more than 5 trades per week? just because it is FOMC race or because you are the real boss and can make whatever you want? Simple curiosity Thanks for sharing Paolo

i took only this week 6 trades the number of open traders because i open every day trade with 0.01 and close it because i must trade 10 day
and i sometimes add to my win positions small lot
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #679
  • Oct 13, 2022 2:22pm Oct 13, 2022 2:22pm
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Thanks for the clear answer, sorry for late but it a busy week... I will do my change using 1H timeframe to see immediatly my trade (i need a quick feedback) I have to many manoths and 2 years of not consistency, i do not believe in me! I need to rebuild my credibility at my eys of myself. I though the behavioural lesson of ALI and a rigorous method would help me...i keep fighting. I will do my back test as you wrote, great method yours of using both configuration (HA and normal candles) here my 3 lost of this week: vertical red line was...
in the begining focus in more moving pairs like aud usd gbp usd gbpjpy eurjpy eurusd
usdchf chfjpy cadjpy audjpy
and take trades after broken macd zero level in the direction of turtle
all of us make mistakes but we must learn from it
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #680
  • Oct 13, 2022 2:25pm Oct 13, 2022 2:25pm
[quote=paolo7;14179317]{quote} If a boss like you had a week so and so a scarse trader as me can be happy to have lost only 3.5%
sometimes i get lose weeks like you
but i focus in long term plan
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
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