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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,281
  • Sep 26, 2022 2:46am Sep 26, 2022 2:46am
Quoting kamyab1996
I think the price is predictable because interaction between supply and demand. and price movement toward side more supply or demand that you can see it in market profile in chart.
Of course, supply & demand is such an important calculation here! Besides, we can identified the demand & supply zones by support/resistant levels!
  • #1,282
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:27am Sep 26, 2022 4:27am
Quoting apprendista
{quote} Maybe that's the reason you struggle so much... It's called a profession and as many other high-rewarding profession it does need sacrifices and a genuine obsession to keep up even when everything tells you to quit, that's why 95% of traders fail, only 5% of people (on every endeavor) are willing to do such sacrifices. I agree that informations are poor, there isn't a straight up guide on how to acquire all the knowledge needed to become a professional and most of the people are just trying to sell you crap... But isn't it the same with...
You did not read or maybe did not understand what I wrote. I did not ask anyone to spoon feed me. What I was asking no one bothered to answer. Further more, you yourself mentioned in another thread that you are not a profitable trader. Do you feel qualified to give advice to another such as yourself? Thank you for pointing me to CPs posts. In a lot of his post and in a myriad of ways he literally spelled it out for everyone "Follow the trend". Same thing I said a few post above, only for someone to come along and tell me that it won't work and I need to buy a crystal ball.
  • #1,283
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:02am Sep 26, 2022 5:02am
Quoting Svetul4o
{quote} You did not read or maybe did not understand what I wrote. I did not ask anyone to spoon feed me. What I was asking no one bothered to answer. Further more, you yourself mentioned in another thread that you are not a profitable trader. Do you feel qualified to give advice to another such as yourself? Thank you for pointing me to CPs posts. In a lot of his post and in a myriad of ways he literally spelled it out for everyone "Follow the trend". Same thing I said a few post above, only for someone to come along and tell me that it won't work...
I never explicitly stated whether I'm profitable or not, clearly you took out of contest what I was trying to say. That someone is profitable or not is completely irrelevant since anyone can state it or fake a trade explorer, the only way to know 100% if someone is profitable is by going to their house and watch them trade every day for quite a long time. Or... if what someone is saying resonates with you, you could start to question it... why does this thing resonate with you? Can you prove it otherwise? Am I getting fooled? Am I underestimating some golden information? Going trough this path will lead you to a point where, even if you are not profitable, you are able to separate fluff from gold.

But you are blind, you looked but you didn't see... I shared quite a good amount of golden advices for you in my last post, and all you did was going trough my post history and come up with the most irrelevant piece of information I shared on here thus far? You have been lucky also to receive some other great responses other than mine, and you are still complaining? That's a bad attitude that will lead you nowhere, maybe start to feel grateful for the responses you received.

You have not asked to bee spoonfed and yet you found someone who took his time to help you.

Maybe there's a reason why "follow the trend" is so repeated? Maybe if you open a chart and try to apply those concepts you'll see something, of course buying above a line will not make you profitable, but at least you will be at BE... which is a little better than to be in loss because you don't know what you are doing, am i right? If yes, why? If not, why?

Stop complaining because it only leads where you already are, be humble and grateful so maybe you will end up somewhere else. All the help you need have already reached you or it will come when you are ready.

Good luck.
  • #1,284
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:37am Sep 26, 2022 5:37am
Quoting apprendista
{quote} I never explicitly stated whether I'm profitable or not, clearly you took out of contest what I was trying to say. That someone is profitable or not is completely irrelevant since anyone can state it or fake a trade explorer, the only way to know 100% if someone is profitable is by going to their house and watch them trade every day for quite a long time. Or... if what someone is saying resonates with you, you could start to question it... why does this thing resonate with you? Can you prove it otherwise? Am I getting fooled? Am I underestimating...
You must really like the sound of your voice in real life. Again, you did not read or understand what I was asking and your answer is completely irrelevant.
  • #1,285
  • Sep 26, 2022 9:12am Sep 26, 2022 9:12am
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007
I'm no expert and still learning but I find understanding what the masses do and what indicators and actions the masses USUALLY take can lead to profit. Maybe I'll get burnt by this eventually but it's working well so far. I learn something new every week so this could change if anyone reads this a month from now.
  • #1,286
  • Sep 27, 2022 12:49am Sep 27, 2022 12:49am
Quoting rmcc4444
{quote} I'm no expert and still learning but I find understanding what the masses do and what indicators and actions the masses USUALLY take can lead to profit. Maybe I'll get burnt by this eventually but it's working well so far. I learn something new every week so this could change if anyone reads this a month from now.
I'd argue you'd be more successfully by doing the opposite of what the masses do but follow what the institutional investors do since they're actually the ones that move the market. I'd recommend reading Master the Markets by Tom Williams.
  • #1,287
  • Oct 2, 2022 8:37pm Oct 2, 2022 8:37pm
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007
Maybe a better way to look at this is - There are certain trades that provide a higher probability of success vs others. You need to take a good look at how historical prices move, and the most fundamental way of doing so is looking at OHLC data. That alone would provide a tremendous volume of insights you can get and can be traded as a standalone. A more advanced way of looking at it is analyzing indicators. ANY indicator. But the best way to do both of the mentioned items would be through coding out the scripts yourself. If you can't do it, you can pay someone to do it for you. It is worth the time and money, trust me.
  • #1,288
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:31am Oct 3, 2022 1:31am
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007

Basically, it’s not possible to know the exact next move; but it’s all about the probabilities! And traders are making money here according to their own trading skill!
  • #1,289
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:21pm Oct 3, 2022 1:21pm
Because price moves in waves. And if you know where you are on the wave and what trend you are in, you can predict what will happen in the future.
  • #1,290
  • Edited 2:47am Oct 4, 2022 2:33am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting Svetul4o
{quote} You must really like the sound of your voice in real life. Again, you did not read or understand what I was asking and your answer is completely irrelevant.
Hi, then please ask explicitly your questions so maybe someone can give you clearer answers or point you to relevant resources.
  • #1,291
  • Oct 9, 2022 9:42pm Oct 9, 2022 9:42pm
Quoting strongtrader
در زیر 2 سنت من متعلق به تجربه شخصی من است. من تظاهر نمی کنم که حقیقت را در جیب خود دارم، اما از آنجایی...
Hi ST
What s you ideal TF Using ? 0.000000
  • #1,292
  • Oct 9, 2022 11:29pm Oct 9, 2022 11:29pm
Not in all the cases i think. Still some searches and predictions and patterns. Then only you can predict a few. It is all about practice and learning.
  • #1,293
  • Oct 10, 2022 2:06am Oct 10, 2022 2:06am
Quoting hgbcreator
{quote} Hi ST What s you ideal TF Using ? 0.000000
TFs don't matter. As above so below.
  • #1,294
  • Oct 10, 2022 12:25pm Oct 10, 2022 12:25pm
You don't predict price movements you predict price reaction to future events. Hence you should shift your focus at predicting possible development of current fundamental forces or events, like rise in geopolitical risks, central bank change in bias and do it better than collective opinion (i.e. market)
  • #1,295
  • Oct 10, 2022 11:42pm Oct 10, 2022 11:42pm
Quoting pizd0s
You don't predict price movements you predict price reaction to future events. Hence you should shift your focus at predicting possible development of current fundamental forces or events, like rise in geopolitical risks, central bank change in bias and do it better than collective opinion (i.e. market)
This is an oxymoron. Those forces you call fundamentals are effects, not causes. Either ways you do not have a crystal ball, unless you understand that everything is driven by a scheme. If you see the scheme you can predict at least (although not always) the next reaction.
  • #1,296
  • Oct 26, 2022 12:57am Oct 26, 2022 12:57am
All the Forex tools available can be used to determine price movement with focus and accuracy, and even technical and fundamental analysis plays a key role in predicting price action in the Forex market.
  • #1,297
  • Oct 26, 2022 4:44pm Oct 26, 2022 4:44pm
Analyzing price movement within a market using recent price action is a good tool to speculate market price direction. This is a trading techniques by itself that a trader can use to build their tradidng strategies. It is possible to determine current price direction and ride the trend by using long term time frames.
  • #1,298
  • Apr 12, 2023 1:46am Apr 12, 2023 1:46am
You can get better odds if you watch price movement within boundaries you set(vertical/horizontal line/price, within one candle, moving average,open/high/low/close,...anything you decide).
"Trade with the trend" --> it is only moving up and down...but almost always a bit easier to one side and that one is on you to exploit.
practise:
Watch at 1 min(or any other, but you have to see movement) candle and ignore previous candles, price action/structure,indicators...everything else you have on your chart. just watch that 1 evolving candle on the market that has some activity/volatility(usd/jpy or gbp/usd,gold,BTC,oil,...). Trade what you see. It will be so much counterintuitive that you will get brain burns at first
  • #1,299
  • Edited Apr 30, 2023 2:54am Apr 29, 2023 11:50pm | Edited Apr 30, 2023 2:54am
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  • #1,300
  • Apr 30, 2023 7:00am Apr 30, 2023 7:00am
It's not completely possible. It's possible to predict some things that are logical, ie the Fed will raise rates more than the market expects and therefore USD will perform better than the market expects. But you can't predict fat finger trades that move the markets. There's always an inherent element to the markets that's unknowable. Hence the importance of risk management.

If you're able to predict fundamental events like the Fed raises rates more than expected, you're able to predict USD to some degree under the assumption the market reacts logically. Normally it does, but not always. There are cases why you're fundamentally correct but the market doesn't behave as expected for any number of reasons. Again, you lean on risk management.

Finally, if you're able to predict what the market will do you're doing so based on what's happened historically. You're implicitly assuming old relationships will be maintained. This is similar to my point above, but not quite the same and more broadly applicable... For example, you backtest your idea and it performs well. That doesn't mean it has to continue, and setting parameters beforehand to know whether or not old relationships are holding its important. That, and risk management so you don't incur too much of a loss when old relationships break down like they often do.

In short, sometimes you can predict price movement, but you can't be sure in advance for any given trade so plan as if you can't.
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