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The Swamp

  • #104,561
  • Oct 3, 2022 10:25am Oct 3, 2022 10:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think .99/slip. Or just .9853+20ish to screw shorts. Either way those stops above 9853 are in jeopardy to me. I cant short till above .99.. But need to allow 40ish pips of slip. .99 may be a dud. 1.0349 or 1.0805.5 may be the real thing. That would wean many off the short tet. They will say trend change (lets go long) yadda yadda. I suspect a new LL after, before a 0.93xx bounce to catch late shorts again.
66 is norm. And it is confirmed since 27 held all day long.
  • #104,562
  • Oct 3, 2022 10:48am Oct 3, 2022 10:48am
Quoting xav
{quote} 66 is norm. And it is confirmed since 27 held all day long.
That would take out those with the 10 pip stop. Just enough to get some fresh norm shorts. Norm is often to the pip. But it cant be overshot. I will wait for .99/slip. I;m not so comfortable with it either. Since the .9595 bounce can be 1.0349 or 1.0805.5. Just high enough to get a lot of fresh longs. Trading a hh and b/o. And just high enough to wean short holder now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,563
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:08am Oct 3, 2022 11:08am
Credit Suisse put out a statement claiming they were in better shape than their peers. My question is if they are in better shape than the peers. How does the statement make me fee safe? The sharks are already circling Credit Suisse. And according to Credit Suisse, the peers are even worse off. It may be time to lock the women and children in the basement.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,564
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:13am Oct 3, 2022 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
Credit Suisse put out a statement claiming they were in better shape than their peers. My question is if they are in better shape than the peers. How does the statement make me fee safe? The sharks are already circling Credit Suisse. And according to Credit Suisse, the peers are even worse off. It may be time to lock the women and children in the basement.
Lehmann put out a similar statement 4-5 months before they went
Cheers!!
  • #104,565
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:18am Oct 3, 2022 11:18am
Right now FOMC meeting is keeping eu hostage. I can only think of three possible reasons for an expedited meeting. UK imploding and they need more dollars. CS (and thus Switzerland) imploding and they need more dollars. Or Florida is imploding and they need more dollars.
Once FOMC is out of the way I think either the lid is off of eu and even 66 won't hold it (so 99 is possible), or back down we go.
  • #104,566
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:22am Oct 3, 2022 11:22am
Quoting gatorinla
Credit Suisse put out a statement claiming they were in better shape than their peers. My question is if they are in better shape than the peers. How does the statement make me fee safe? The sharks are already circling Credit Suisse. And according to Credit Suisse, the peers are even worse off. It may be time to lock the women and children in the basement.
I don't think this is a Lehman moment. 1/ CS CDS now is the same level as GM. Is GM going under? Or a simple CDS price level is not that good of a signal. 2/ Lehman had the same CDS levels as Morgan and Chase back when. 3/ Lehman went under because the CEO had no friends on Wall Street and also that whole payback scenario. CS has a lot of friends in both Switzerland and the US. They will get bailed out at worst. Switzerland for sure won't allow it to go under. Not longing CHF though might be the prudent choice.
  • #104,567
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:31am Oct 3, 2022 11:31am
Quoting xav
{quote} I don't think this is a Lehman moment. 1/ CS CDS now is the same level as GM. Is GM going under? Or a simple CDS price level is not that good of a signal. 2/ Lehman had the same CDS levels as Morgan and Chase back when. 3/ Lehman went under because the CEO had no friends on Wall Street and also that whole payback scenario. CS has a lot of friends in both Switzerland and the US. They will get bailed out at worst. Switzerland for sure won't allow it to go under. Not longing CHF though might be the prudent choice.
What we think has little to do with reality. We are influenced by what we hear. We hear what they allow/want us to hear. Its not like they will say things are bad, if they are bad. Sure they are back by a country. They said they are in better shape than their peers. What's that say about the peers? Are the Swiss going to back them? Its all contagious. A heathy firm will need to absorb the crap from another. That weakens them. It even weakens the government backing it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,568
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:37am Oct 3, 2022 11:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} What we think has little to do with reality. We are influenced by what we hear. We hear what they allow/want us to hear. Its not like they will say things are bad, if they are bad. Sure they are back by a country. They said they are in better shape than their peers. What's that say about the peers?
Well, obviously they are lying. CS isn't healthy there is a reason the stock is trading at 3. But I don't think it's a good short here. Thinking forward a bailout is more likely than a Lehman-like collapse. I've been wrong before. Sometimes I'm right. We'll see.
  • #104,569
  • Oct 3, 2022 11:48am Oct 3, 2022 11:48am
Quoting gatorinla
At 1.1350 I start looking to short. If this was the eu. 45 pips would be enough slip, The GBP requires more. I will look for entries till about 1.14 tp 1.0916.. So my stop will adjust to tp. that tp is about 430+ pips. I like a risk 1 to 10 reward.. In this case it may be 1 to 8 or 9. A short signal at 1.1375 risk money, and double the reward money at tp. {image}
This is the smaller of a 2 teer short. The larger at 1599. Its import to take the loss if blows past the entry point. This is not a hold loser strategy. If wrong about 1350/slip. 1599 will come later. You will curse me because, you failed to adhere to what's posted. Its not a get in before 1350 strategy. You will lose all the benefit of waiting for good R/R.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,570
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:10pm Oct 3, 2022 1:10pm
Quoting xav
{quote} Well, obviously they are lying. CS isn't healthy there is a reason the stock is trading at 3. But I don't think it's a good short here. Thinking forward a bailout is more likely than a Lehman-like collapse. I've been wrong before. Sometimes I'm right. We'll see.
I just dont want to be on the wrong side. Then slip skips my s/l too much. People better be sure to keep a s/l in these times. I have heard thousands of traders. I dont see anywhere, stating they dont use one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,571
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:14pm Oct 3, 2022 1:14pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 5 now
not 5 yet.. But she is trying.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,572
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:33pm Oct 3, 2022 1:33pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 5 now
Grand Slam Breakfast..
Inserted Video
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,573
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:45pm Oct 3, 2022 1:45pm
decided my tp on my EU long: 9936. i think it needs 9945 but might not get to 9966 for now. we will see, as the blind man says
dreams do come true.
  • #104,574
  • Oct 3, 2022 1:54pm Oct 3, 2022 1:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I just dont want to be on the wrong side. Then slip skips my s/l too much. People better be sure to keep a s/l in these times. I have heard thousands of traders. I dont see anywhere, stating they dont use one.
Everybody has a sl. The only question is whether you can keep trading the day after it was hit. And the only 100% in trading is that your sl will be hit.
  • #104,575
  • Oct 3, 2022 2:08pm Oct 3, 2022 2:08pm
Guys any idea why is gold running so much Today that too both equities and gold jumping huge at same time..
Gold basically covered whole of September losses in 5 days
  • #104,576
  • Oct 3, 2022 2:16pm Oct 3, 2022 2:16pm
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Gold may give a good opportunity to short 1709.65/+slip
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,577
  • Oct 3, 2022 2:31pm Oct 3, 2022 2:31pm
I dont know how slip is normal for gold. Asian normal demand time is now. Nobody buys more gold, than Asia. But high food prices, Covid etc. Is leaving less money to buy gold. It should have less than normal demand. They may be actually selling gold to pay for the rest of inflated living cost. The blue line plus slip may be a shallow tp. The 1557.11/slip should be a tough support area. That's where the better buy may be. 1630.62 may be a smaller buy also. Its not as strong for a long time low. Asia has pumped gold for 40 years. 40 years ago gold was 300 bucks. Take away Asia demand, and 1557.11 may not hold.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,578
  • Oct 3, 2022 2:31pm Oct 3, 2022 2:31pm
Quoting euroboy2208
Guys any idea why is gold running so much Today that too both equities and gold jumping huge at same time.. Gold basically covered whole of September losses in 5 days
Seasonal Asian demand is now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,579
  • Oct 3, 2022 3:45pm Oct 3, 2022 3:45pm
I use 11.5 for eur slip. GBP is more violent. I dont have a GBP benchmark %. using 11.5 its 1.1401.

On gold it would be 1719 rounded. Or 1741 for the 1457 one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,580
  • Oct 3, 2022 3:48pm Oct 3, 2022 3:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know how slip is normal for gold. Asian normal demand time is now. Nobody buys more gold, than Asia. But high food prices, Covid etc. Is leaving less money to buy gold. It should have less than normal demand. They may be actually selling gold to pay for the rest of inflated living cost. The blue line plus slip may be a shallow tp. The 1557.11/slip should be a tough support area. That's where the better buy may be. 1630.62 may be a smaller buy also. Its not as strong for a long time low. Asia has pumped gold for 40 years. 40 years ago gold...
Globally banks are buying and holding more gold physically in reserve. They all withdrew their gold from the US years ago.
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