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The Swamp

  • #104,521
  • Sep 30, 2022 11:19am Sep 30, 2022 11:19am
some mixed pa happening. i closed my positions for today, will wait for a better long entry on Monday. happy weekend to everyone.
  • #104,522
  • Sep 30, 2022 11:21am Sep 30, 2022 11:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It just gets worse from here. People dont realize how bad it will get. My Allstate policy went up to 11k per year. I didnt have enough damage the last one for a claim. Yet is went up 4X. If the insurance is that high in Florida. The home prices will need to fall. Oh BTW global warming is fake. Most scientist around the world are lying. Just the ones on Fox News pays, are telling the truth. Just ask one of the cult
Both are lying and both are telling the truth. Its a multi variable issue. Land is surveyed and data is collected the data says this area is not stable for land development they city not wanting to lose money says we dont care. Insurance says ok but the damage will be X. It will be cheaper to move the city and dev. on stable land the city laughs because of the infrastructure built and say sure like that is going to happen. Insurance company ok pay X. Example a subdivision is build the subsidence variable is X. meaning the foundation is going to crack causing the roof to leak in 10-15 years. Do they still build.. Yes Insurance is already calculated in that they will need a roof and supporting struct. under the foundation. Is it the insurance companies fault? or the Cities ?
  • #104,523
  • Sep 30, 2022 12:12pm Sep 30, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Both are lying and both are telling the truth. Its a multi variable issue. Land is surveyed and data is collected the data says this area is not stable for land development they city not wanting to lose money says we dont care. Insurance says ok but the damage will be X. It will be cheaper to move the city and dev. on stable land the city laughs because of the infrastructure built and say sure like that is going to happen. Insurance company ok pay X. Example a subdivision is build the subsidence variable is X. meaning the foundation is going...
Ok. But that whole paragraph has little to do with a rising sea level (global warming. There is no both right. The snow is melting. The water is rising. Lower land will flood more. Higher land will flood more. Warmer water produces more storms. It produces more intense storms. This was never debated 50 years ago. It was just known fact science. This was predicted by scientist over 70 years ago. By the right and left leaning scientist. It wasn't political back then, It was just science. The planning you speak of has little to do with me. I'm in a X zone. Rural on high ground. But yet I have to pay more.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,524
  • Sep 30, 2022 12:21pm Sep 30, 2022 12:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Ok. But that whole paragraph has little to do with a rising sea level (global warming. There is no both right. The snow is melting. The water is rising. Lower land will flood more. Higher land will flood more. Warmer water produces more storms. It produces more intense storms. This was never debated 50 years ago. It was just known fact science. This was predicted by scientist over 70 years ago. By the right and left leaning scientist. It wasn't political back then, It was just science. The planning you speak of has little to do with me....
I got side tracked from what I was actually here for. sorry. I have not forgot about what I said I was going to post here I have been busy so I will post them soon I just want to see what was going on I did not plan on actually saying anything in the forum.
I wanted to setup a data repository a while back about 8 years ago and get it contracted but there was no opening that is why I know about USGS data points and insurance other things of that nature. The repository of sensor data would have been residual income. will start getting some data setup to post here for you it will be in the down time on the weekends when its bare of traders.
  • #104,525
  • Sep 30, 2022 12:34pm Sep 30, 2022 12:34pm
In school we sometimes got to watch educational programs like this. It wasn't political back then. Its just pure science. I have watched a coastline disappear for more time than I care to omit. I have watched large Islands full of beautiful oaks disappear in my lifetime. The coastline is now near the edges of New Orleans. 100 miles closer than before. Its just a fact. High dry places I once hunted are now sea.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,526
  • Sep 30, 2022 2:46pm Sep 30, 2022 2:46pm
I closed my longs.. Back to the salt mine Sunday-Monday.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,527
  • Sep 30, 2022 3:07pm Sep 30, 2022 3:07pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} That is Incredible!!!! . ,, you are a one shot one kill guy .. .. you have balls to hold... I don't....lol
My month is over. Pa is above .9732. That is bullish to. Despite Cot having less overall longs. That spooked me some. Even though I think pa will go to .99 this month and maybe 1.0346 or 1.08055 this quarter. It may be soon. Next week above 9732 is bull pressure to me.. Just in case it falls early week to 9695/69/9690 or 9638. I may have screwed up. My data is still bullish. If I stuck with the none commercial only. I would have held the longs.

Your brother
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,528
  • Sep 30, 2022 3:27pm Sep 30, 2022 3:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My month is over. Pa is above .9732. That is bullish to. Despite Cot having less overall longs. That spooked me some. Even though I think pa will go to .99 this month and maybe 1.0346 or 1.08055 this quarter. It may be soon. Next week above 9732 is bull pressure to me.. Just in case it falls early week to 9695/69/9690 or 9638. I may have screwed up. My data is still bullish. If I stuck with the none commercial only. I would have held the longs. Your brother {image}
Well done..thank you!!!! that made my brother very very happy
  • #104,529
  • Sep 30, 2022 3:48pm Sep 30, 2022 3:48pm
Quoting charlienoble
homeowners insurance in Florida may be a thing of the past
Saw damage from hurricane Ian, wow. There will definitely be increased economic activity in a good portion of the country following its devastation.
  • #104,530
  • Sep 30, 2022 3:55pm Sep 30, 2022 3:55pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Well done..thank you!!!! that made my brother very very happy
despite these 2 loses today. I really didnt want to short. Next time i will allow more of the slip b4 entering against my trend. .I refuses to place s/i wide. I traded short with smaller position s. In this case wider than normal. Set for position size.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,531
  • Edited 4:41pm Sep 30, 2022 4:16pm | Edited 4:41pm
Quoting HungryTrade
{quote} Saw damage from hurricane Ian, wow. There will definitely be increased economic activity in a good portion of the country following its devastation.
Yeah people will rebuild. Insurance will. pa X. But once something like this happens. That generational wealth is lost. First off the deductible may be 3%+. Many of these people are not in a flood plane. So did not have flood insurance. Since it was not required. A lot of rebuilding money comes from savings etc. Insurance doesn't cover all that is replaced. Insurance wants to pro-rate personal items. A home owner policy will only cover water entering from the roof/broken window. etc. If the flood water hit the house and knocked it down first. Those people may have no insurance (unless they have a flood policy). Many of those pictures from the live reporters are showing. The waves destroying houses, not wind. Many are underinsured. Instead of the older people are not leaving money to the children. Its spent on new stuff. Been there done this before more than once or twice. Its a generational kick in the nuts. People will owe money to banks for a home. While they rent another home. There will be a housing shortage. Rents will rise. People will over extend credit lines. Many people will just leave the house unrepaired. The bank may take years to take it back. Meanwhile the damage of a leaky roof worsens. The people underinsured will have to build back with newer building codes. Those will cost more. Building material prices will double or more. Labor will do the same. In such a wide spread storm it will take years for many to rebuild. Meanwhile the home next door is falling down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,532
  • Sep 30, 2022 5:09pm Sep 30, 2022 5:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah people will rebuild. Insurance will. pa X. But once something like this happens. That generational wealth is lost. First off the deductible may be 3%+. Many of these people are not in a flood plane. So did not have flood insurance. Since it was not required. A lot of rebuilding money comes from savings etc. Insurance doesn't cover all that is replaced. Insurance wants to pro-rate personal items. A home owner policy will only cover water entering from the roof/broken window. etc. If the flood water hit the house and knocked it down first....
Too many things to mention. A lot of people sadly, will get a rude awakening. Many people who thought they had life by the ass, Will be schooled.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,533
  • Sep 30, 2022 9:13pm Sep 30, 2022 9:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My month is over. Pa is above .9732. That is bullish to. Despite Cot having less overall longs. That spooked me some. Even though I think pa will go to .99 this month and maybe 1.0346 or 1.08055 this quarter. It may be soon. Next week above 9732 is bull pressure to me.. Just in case it falls early week to 9695/69/9690 or 9638. I may have screwed up. My data is still bullish. If I stuck with the none commercial only. I would have held the longs. Your brother {image}
Rethinking this some. .99 is a definite algo. It should go there this month. The close below 9822 today, and the Cot R. Being overall short. Opens up a possible retrace to .9732/46 area. The lager pool south in the area is 9690/89. I think as long as near. and above .9732 is bullish. I see a shot at .9690/slip. I dont like the long from 98 tp 99. where pa sits now. Because it has too much retrace potential. That hurts the R/R. I think i may opt out on .99 tp unless there is a retrace to enter.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,534
  • Oct 1, 2022 10:16am Oct 1, 2022 10:16am
I'm expecting 111.50 to bounce dxy
  • #104,535
  • Oct 1, 2022 10:39am Oct 1, 2022 10:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Rethinking this some. .99 is a definite algo. It should go there this month. The close below 9822 today, and the Cot R. Being overall short. Opens up a possible retrace to .9732/46 area. The lager pool south in the area is 9690/89. I think as long as near. and above .9732 is bullish. I see a shot at .9690/slip. I dont like the long from 98 tp 99. where pa sits now. Because it has too much retrace potential. That hurts the R/R. I think i may opt out on .99 tp unless there is a retrace to enter. {image}
I want to edit. Still in the area below 9690 may be a long. I think above 9678.7 leans bullish. Of course 9732 is above. A possible slip below 9690/slip is normal. The .9678.7 should be a balance point. I'm not calling for a long. Because i do think it will hit .99. But on the chance it may fall first, I will wait for .9690/.9578 area to see how it goes. I acknowledge I may miss a run to .99. But since it didnt close above 9822. and Cot shorts. It leaves the chance open it will fall. Plus it did hit the last target .9807. Those usually retrace some after. Last week's retrace to .973x may not be enough. I may be 100% wrong. I will own that. So i dont want to short. I just want to buy support and tp .99.. or 1.0349. 1.0805.5. If I 'm wrong. Once pa reaches .99/slip... It may retrace. To whatever, the next (unknown atm) level of support is. Second choice 9608/slip
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,536
  • Oct 1, 2022 10:54am Oct 1, 2022 10:54am
if dxy does bounce at 111.50 I want to see if it is corrective or impulsive

* red usd news early next week
  • #104,537
  • Oct 1, 2022 11:05am Oct 1, 2022 11:05am
my thought is once they get everyone buying, dxy could go touch 115 and EU could go touch .9500, then reverse.
  • #104,538
  • Oct 1, 2022 4:24pm Oct 1, 2022 4:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} .9690/.9578 area to see how it goes. I acknowledge I may miss a run to .99. But since it didnt close above 9822. and Cot shorts. It leaves the chance open it will fall. Plus it did hit the last target .9807. Those usually retrace some after. Last week's retrace to .973x may not be enough. I may be 100% wrong. I will own that. So i dont want to short. I just want to buy support and tp .99.. or 1.0349. 1.0805.5. If I 'm wrong. Once pa reaches .99/slip... It may retrace. To whatever, the next (unknown atm) level of support...
typo.. but i will leave it.. The chart is right. 9690/9678
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,539
  • Oct 1, 2022 4:32pm Oct 1, 2022 4:32pm
Quoting charlienoble
my thought is once they get everyone buying, dxy could go touch 115 and EU could go touch .9500, then reverse.
Its not big.. I got some usd possible R pools at 113.28.2 and 113.78.9. add some slip
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,540
  • Oct 1, 2022 4:51pm Oct 1, 2022 4:51pm
How I missed trying to decode Gator's posts
dreams do come true.
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