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Hunting Elephants with a Microscope

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 11, 2023 5:22am Sep 16, 2022 6:30am | Edited Mar 11, 2023 5:22am
Just so everyone can watch the trading in the real time live account.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #2
  • Sep 16, 2022 6:51am Sep 16, 2022 6:51am
Good luck with your thread, looking forward to it. i subscribed
  • #3
  • Sep 16, 2022 9:41am Sep 16, 2022 9:41am
Quoting T721
Good luck with your thread, looking forward to it. i subscribed
Thanks mate...I figured i needed to get all of this stuff down in print somewhere. Hopefully someone will get from benefit from it.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #4
  • Sep 16, 2022 9:49am Sep 16, 2022 9:49am
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Waiting_for_a_Retest_Will_Make_You_a_Better_Forex_Trader_2_3.pdf   238 KB | 235 downloads
  • #5
  • Sep 16, 2022 12:45pm Sep 16, 2022 12:45pm
Quoting T721
{image}
Just the title of the pdf you uploaded will make you a better trader as long as you heed the advice...Cheers
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #6
  • Sep 16, 2022 4:49pm Sep 16, 2022 4:49pm
So lets go through how my charts are setup. I have exactly 2 indicators on my charts and I use 1 measuring tool.
1) I have a pivots indicator that is set to 5 before / 5 after:
A) Pivot Highs, which is those with 5 lower Highs on either side are marked with a small horizontal line that is Green.
B) Pivot Lows, those with 5 higher lows on either side are marked with a small horizontal line that is Red
2) I have a RSI indicator that colors the bars above or below a threshold.
A) The period for the RSI is 3
B) The value for Overbought is 51
C) The value for Oversold is 49

These are the only things on my charts and I will explain how each one is used in the trade decision process.

So, lets start with the very first chart that I posted earlier today of the EURAUD pair.

This chart is the EURAUD Daily chart and shows the last leg down to a fresh LOW
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_daily09162022.png Size: 27 KB

So, with the last leg DOWN making a new LOW, we are looking for retracements in order to get into a LOW RISK SHORT (LRS).
I have placed a standard fib retracement on the last leg down with the .500 .618 and .786. These are the light blue lines. on the daily chart.
- Now that I have my fib retracement marked on my chart, i place an alarm at the .500 level and wait.
- Once the alarm is triggered, I know that I am "in the neighborhood" and ready to start finding an entry.
- So how do I know whether to short at the .500 /618 or .786...... Short answer is I DON'T KNOW in advance.

-- This is where we get out our Microscope and tune down to the 15 min chart.....which I will cover in the next post
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #7
  • Sep 17, 2022 7:57am Sep 17, 2022 7:57am
To continue from the last post, we now know from the daily that we are " in the area" to be looking for a good short.
The 15 min chart had a big bar up to touch the .618 retracement. This alone is NOT a reason for an entry.
We MUST see Price Action that gives us a valid entry.
I am looking for an "M" pattern or a bearish engulfing bar or a shooting star to use as my entry trigger.
The biggest concept that one must grasp is "CONTEXT"
Any of these triggers will work as long as you understand where you are and why you expect sellers.

So I entered the trade and as it went my way, I added at the bottom of the BIG bar up. That appeared to be where the last few buyers were for the push up. Once we breached this, further down we went.

In the next post, we will look at what to do with the trade now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD_15min08162022.jpg Size: 326 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #8
  • Sep 18, 2022 4:13pm Sep 18, 2022 4:13pm
Sunday night and lets look at a few charts so that we can establish some CONTEXT for next week.
We have to know where we in order to know where we are going. If we don't understand context, that fantastic buy signal on the 15 min or 1 hr chart will result in absolutely nothing other than swift a$$ kicking if you are at a weekly H or some other larger timeframe spot.
THE MOST IMPORTANT STATEMENT I WILL EVER POST HERE.......WE TRADE PROBABILITIES NOT CURRENCIES.
READ THAT A GOZILLION TIMES UNTIL YOU UNDERSTAND IT AND LIVE IT EVERY TRADING DAY


So on we go to some charts:

AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_daily2.png Size: 36 KB

Lets get out the microscope and zoom into this bigger structure

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_daily.png Size: 22 KB

Now we set an alarm just above the .382retracement and we wait.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #9
  • Sep 18, 2022 4:41pm Sep 18, 2022 4:41pm
Crude Oil

This market is correcting what was a breakout that ran all the way to 130. Currently in the sweet spot for low risk entries as long as there is a proper trigger with great R:R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crude_daily.png Size: 32 KB


Lets get out the microscope and dig in a little deeper...If this current bar turns RSI positive then a low risk entry long would be at the high of the 1700 bar with stops .20-.25 below the 83.86 most recent low.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crude_4hr.png Size: 21 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #10
  • Sep 18, 2022 6:34pm Sep 18, 2022 6:34pm
Quoting swingtrade65
This thread is about how to find large winners with minimal risk. This is NOT a set of rules to be followed exactly, rather it is a way of looking at the markets that will provide you with insight as to what is really going on. Before we go any further, I am not some market guru. I have not made millions or even hundreds of thousands trading forex. I have however, paid for many vacations and quite a few college textbooks and tuition fees with my trading. At one time in my life about 30 years ago, I was a paid trader for a private equity group. I...
@Swingtrader65 , I dont know how to set Pivot high ,Pivot low .Can you show me how to set 5 high &5 low .Thanks @Swingtrader65
  • #11
  • Sep 19, 2022 5:16am Sep 19, 2022 5:16am
Quoting munchie
{quote} @Swingtrader65 , I dont know how to set Pivot high ,Pivot low .Can you show me how to set 5 high &5 low .Thanks @Swingtrader65
Munchie...I use Tradingview as my charting and trading platform. There is an indicator called "Pivots" that you can set to whatever length....I use 5/5
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #12
  • Sep 19, 2022 5:19am Sep 19, 2022 5:19am
Quoting swingtrade65
Crude Oil This market is correcting what was a breakout that ran all the way to 130. Currently in the sweet spot for low risk entries as long as there is a proper trigger with great R:R {image} Lets get out the microscope and dig in a little deeper...If this current bar turns RSI positive then a low risk entry long would be at the high of the 1700 bar with stops .20-.25 below the 83.86 most recent low. {image}
No trade trigger and it headed lower. Will continue to watch
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #13
  • Sep 20, 2022 4:26pm Sep 20, 2022 4:26pm
Take a look at this weekly chart of Paychex Inc on the Nasdaq.
You always read about these patterns in books and on websites....It is very cool to see them unfold in real time!
We want to drill into this stock and see if we can find a good LOW RISK entry to the short side.

Very well defined Head & Shoulders

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: payx.jpg Size: 133 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #14
  • Sep 20, 2022 4:41pm Sep 20, 2022 4:41pm
Same thing as above but on a USDJPY 15 min chart. Neckline is a little sloppy but still a nice setup to harvest some pips.
Watch as this unfolds over the coming hours to see how it plays out!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy15min.jpg Size: 158 KB
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  • #15
  • Sep 21, 2022 6:36pm Sep 21, 2022 6:36pm
I know this is a forex thread but I also spend a lot of time trading stocks.
Here is another "M" pattern on the weekly chart that I entered today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxcm.jpg Size: 126 KB
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  • #16
  • Sep 21, 2022 6:48pm Sep 21, 2022 6:48pm
So here is the 15min with the general thought process of this trade.
A) I was aware of the big M on the weekly chart.
B) Initial reaction was down
C) Rebound was capped at previous pivot H levels
D) When next bar doesn't follow through, SHORT @ bottom of that bar with H as the initial stop.
This is how we enter trades with good risk management and LARGE upside potential.
It DOES NOT guarantee the success of any trade, however, it does offer R:R of 2 to 1 at a bare minimum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxcm15min.jpg Size: 120 KB
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #17
  • Sep 25, 2022 3:21pm Sep 25, 2022 3:21pm
Found another Elephant. NZDUSD Weekly
We need to get our microscope out and see if we get a premium entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.jpg Size: 204 KB
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  • #18
  • Sep 25, 2022 3:56pm Sep 25, 2022 3:56pm
Two more to watch...Both are in the retracement zone where we can get low risk entries

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_2022-09-25_18-45-00.png Size: 19 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_2022-09-25_18-45-41.png Size: 20 KB
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  • #19
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:56pm Sep 26, 2022 5:56pm
Anybody finding any Elephants?
Saw a lot of banter about the size of the Cable moves today. Not sure why though. These types of violent moves happen in the FX arena, so get used to it. Do central banks intervene...YES they do! Once again, Get used to it. Anyone who traded the Yen back in the early 90's knew that the BOJ would intervene at what seemed to be the drop of the proverbial hat....guess what, get used to it.

I suppose my real question is not only HOW could you be on the wrong side but more importantly, WHY would you be on the wrong side of the Cable right now. If I am gonna lose, you can bet your a$$ it's gonna be on a short and has been for the better part of this year. SELL THE RIPS .....It really is that simple folks.

Look at this Daily Cable chart and explain to me why would you be buying in the past year?
Since 06/21 there have been a SERIES of 9 LOWER Daily Pivot Highs which means we have been in a DOWNTREND for OVER 1 YEAR in which we have dropped over THREE THOUSAND PIPS yet folks have been BUYING and blowing accounts. The same folks just cannot understand WHY THEY LOSE.

For the Record.....I am NOT some master guru, rather just a guy who has been around the block at least twice and learned to pull some pips from the market.
LESSON: Don't fight the TREND. The EASY money is made shorting retracements in a Bear market and buying pullbacks in a BULL market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cabledaily.jpg Size: 188 KB
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  • #20
  • Sep 27, 2022 4:30pm Sep 27, 2022 4:30pm
LOTS of fun today on the $ pairs. Check out todays action on the TE attached at the top of the thread.
This type of trading can be done on any timeframe. Today was all done on the 15 min chart. This is not my usual style in that I seldom do this many day trades.....my normal trade length is about 15 hours but sometimes i will sit for 1/2 a day and trade.
Embrace the challenge and commit to learning.
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
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