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Going for it

  • #161
  • Sep 13, 2022 7:55am Sep 13, 2022 7:55am
Take a guess
The current chart, what ever it is, what ever you think it shows or hides, is not enough.
It never where, it never will be.
There must be a guess.
Roughly where its going.
Otherwise you are fucked!
I know that after 12 years of hard work, looking back.
What i mean by that is even if you have an idea of the systematics, even if its seems a good idea.
That doesnt project price into the future.
Only a guess does.
And that is based on lets say "pattern recognition".
Dickheads looking at MA´s will keep being dickheads as long as they keep looking at theyr MA´s.
And im not about to tell them so.
Dickheads dont deserve being told they are dickheads.
And besides, dickheads dont know what it means to be a dickhead, any more then a chicken dont know what it means in human terms that the chicken is a chicken.
Most dickheads will die as dickheads.
Many of them will be born again dickheads.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #162
  • Sep 14, 2022 12:30pm Sep 14, 2022 12:30pm
Quoting yaed
Take a guess The current chart, what ever it is, what ever you think it shows or hides, is not enough. It never where, it never will be. There must be a guess. Roughly where its going. Otherwise you are fucked! I know that after 12 years of hard work, looking back. What i mean by that is even if you have an idea of the systematics, even if its seems a good idea. That doesnt project price into the future. Only a guess does. And that is based on lets say "pattern recognition". Dickheads looking at MA´s will keep being dickheads as long as they keep...
Hi Yaed,

There is more than one way to Trade Sucessfully and to look at Price and how it moves

And of course thousands of ways to Trade unsucessfully

If we are lucky enough to find a Method that works for us it comes down to having a Positive Expectancy, over time, rather than simply relying on Guessing wether Price will go up or down to reach our Target (I hope)

Or am I missing something?

I guess I am one of the "Dickheads" as I use MAs to help with Trade Decisions

Everybody is on their Individual Trading Journey

As we go down the Rabbit Hole we ultimately have to find a Method that works for us as Individuals it will take time to Accumulate the Knowledge to do this

Of course, a lot of Traders, out there, will never find a Method and there are a lot more who don't even know what they are looking for
  • #163
  • Sep 16, 2022 3:18am Sep 16, 2022 3:18am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Yaed, There is more than one way to Trade Sucessfully and to look at Price and how it moves And of course thousands of ways to Trade unsucessfully If we are lucky enough to find a Method that works for us it comes down to having a Positive Expectancy, over time, rather than simply relying on Guessing wether Price will go up or down to reach our Target (I hope) Or am I missing something? I guess I am one of the "Dickheads" as I use MAs to help with Trade Decisions Everybody is on their Individual Trading Journey As we go...
I think that at some point words are not enough.
Only entries and exists are.
What i mean about guessing is that there is no way to be sure.
Or do you make every trades SL 100% of your account?
So there is always en element of guessing.
But the word "guess" is still just a word.
Truth is formless, shapeless and will always escape words.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #164
  • Sep 16, 2022 3:30am Sep 16, 2022 3:30am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Everybody is on their Individual Trading Journey As we go down the Rabbit Hole we ultimately have to find a Method that works for us as Individuals it will take time to Accumulate the Knowledge to do this Of course
The expectation is that we can learn something from each other, even though we are on individual paths.
Otherwise i would keep silent and not write anything here.
And it would seem the same goes for you.
So its both true that we need to forge our own path, but we can still be inspired by others.
Or so it would seem that we assume, otherwise we would act differently.

Also i may add my mood will shift, and so how i write.
About that dickhead thing...
I am sorry.
But i would not recommend anyone to use a moving average for anything and i cant see how anyone would mathematicaly succesfully argue its existence.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #165
  • Sep 16, 2022 11:01am Sep 16, 2022 11:01am
Quoting yaed
{quote} The expectation is that we can learn something from each other, even though we are on individual paths. Otherwise i would keep silent and not write anything here. And it would seem the same goes for you. So its both true that we need to forge our own path, but we can still be inspired by others. Or so it would seem that we assume, otherwise we would act differently. Also i may add my mood will shift, and so how i write. About that dickhead thing... I am sorry. But i would not recommend anyone to use a moving average...

Hi Yaed,

Like you, I started Trading about 12 years ago

I only Trade part time when I can

I see fulltime Trading more as a retirement thing, I'm 60

In the beginning I was reading FF Forums searching for the perfect System to Trade

With time I devloped my own Style of Trading

With a lot of "Tweeking", over time, I eventually devloped a Method that suits me

Now I Trade a Method that has a Positive Expectancy

Every New Trader should be Striving to become an "Independent Thinker"

It's the only way to succeed

Don't worry about the Dickhead thing....
  • #166
  • Sep 26, 2022 3:26am Sep 26, 2022 3:26am
This week i will be trading every day.
The trades i make are similar to the ones i have posted.
So far today i think its 4 wins and a loss.
One i still going.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #167
  • Sep 26, 2022 3:43am Sep 26, 2022 3:43am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Yaed, Like you, I started Trading about 12 years ago I only Trade part time when I can I see fulltime Trading more as a retirement thing, I'm 60 In the beginning I was reading FF Forums searching for the perfect System to Trade With time I devloped my own Style of Trading With a lot of "Tweeking", over time, I eventually devloped a Method that suits me Now I Trade a Method that has a Positive Expectancy Every New Trader should be Striving to become an "Independent Thinker" It's the only way to succeed Don't worry about the Dickhead thing....
"Methods"
I have read all the methods i could from everybody.
Many of the explanations of how people trade are very much in general.
They talk and talk and talk at length.
When they are actualy asked when they enter a trade and exit it, 95% of them start to waver.
And pretty much none of them do exactly what they say.
Still after 12 years i havent read or seen anyone explaining exactly how they trade and then seen it done.
I have seen some who try to eplain in general how they think when they traded and then seen it done.

And i try here to explain how i do it.
I dont know how to explain it better then i have here.
My broker kept calling me before asking me how i do it.
I tried telling the guy that there are no simple answer i can give him.
Maybe kind of like a good muay thai fighter cant exactly explain how they fight.
It just cant be put into words.
Because its not a matter of words, its a matter of experience, practice, long hours, the correct adjusted mindset and so on.
And good sleep, exercise, stable human relationships, not using stimulants, a general creativity in ones life and so on.
But also, once you get it, those things become a little less important and you just do pretty much what you know.

The reason i try to explain how i do it is because i have met people who try to share and i am innspired by them.
But really, maybe 10% of how i trade actually comes from other people.
The rest price taught me.
For 12 years.
So i think price is DEFINITELY the best teacher.

All these labels like "Price action trading", or "Swing trading" or "Scalping" are to me more or less meaningless.
It has hundreds of names and we can invent more names as we go along.
You buy or sell and close when you think its time to.
What you call it only matters in terms of what you are trying to convey.
I have seen people arguing at length over what to call certain types of trades.
Rather pointless.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #168
  • Sep 26, 2022 3:50am Sep 26, 2022 3:50am
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My signature is: "Classified".
  • #169
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:45am Sep 26, 2022 4:45am
I have a SUPER, SUPER boring meeting at 14:30 london time.
If i dont kill myself with a double barrel shotgun during the meeting i will be back tomorrow for more trading...
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My signature is: "Classified".
  • #170
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:16am Sep 26, 2022 5:16am
It kind of works out since i think price needs to drop for another 42 minutes or so before i start to buy it.
But then its the ECB conference or what ever they call it...
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #171
  • Sep 27, 2022 5:16am Sep 27, 2022 5:16am
I was tired today so i slept for a while.
I have closed two positions, one win, one loss.
One is still going.
Concentrating on lifting some weights and muay thai today.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #172
  • Sep 28, 2022 1:36am Sep 28, 2022 1:36am
I bought right before i left to drive my son to school.
Closed for + 15 right away as i got home.
Nice day to trade.
Price is hitting a new low.
No annoying news.
Im a bit tired, even though i slept 10 hours.
Time to sell soon.
And then in 4 hours buy again.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #173
  • Sep 28, 2022 1:42am Sep 28, 2022 1:42am
On another note...
Im listening to this while trading.
Inserted Video

I should add neither of these guys represent my views.
Zeihan thinks of states too much as cohisive units.
Which i dont agree on, think Vanguard and Black rock for instance...
But he is quite learned on demographics.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #174
  • Sep 28, 2022 3:58am Sep 28, 2022 3:58am
Quoting yaed
STRATEGIES I am critical of this idea of finding "a strategy". In my experience its an illusion. Many strategies have elements that is rather sound and logical. But none of them seem to do much good on the whole. I dont care to actually ARGUE my point since there is nothing to be gained from that. I am not a one to ARGUE strategies, since they are illusory. If there WAS a strategy it would be: Buy low, sell high. Close on good profit or hurtfull loss. Close when you are wrong. Or correct enough in a matter of normal circumstances. Dont wish or hope...
nice
  • #175
  • Oct 2, 2022 1:02pm Oct 2, 2022 1:02pm
MWA

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This is the type of stuff that apparently my mind does at 6 AM while rather drunk after a party in the company of a beautiful woman...
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #176
  • Oct 3, 2022 4:02am Oct 3, 2022 4:02am
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My signature is: "Classified".
  • #177
  • Oct 7, 2022 5:40am Oct 7, 2022 5:40am
So we are right back at the .98 somewhere there.

I got a bit of my ass handed to me because if carlessness and wavering focus.
And some other issues.
But im still alive and 3 weeks of hard work and clear focus will take care of that.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #178
  • Oct 7, 2022 5:55am Oct 7, 2022 5:55am
NFP in 95 minutes.
Might turn the whole thing on its head.
Or its ass.
But there is still a war in Ukraine.
And the chinese has been able to cover up theyr failing economy and old population...
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #179
  • Oct 18, 2022 7:50am Oct 18, 2022 7:50am
Guess what?
Still around the .98
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #180
  • Oct 18, 2022 1:25pm Oct 18, 2022 1:25pm
The concept of "Lift" and "Cap"
I remember watching Nunix trade.
It was a sublime experience.
She seemed unable to do anything wrong.
Pricewise that is.
Unfortunately shes not around any more.

It seems to me now that she was able to anticipate the 50-100 or even mutli day moves of 200+.
She needs to be able to have done so based on the same data that is availiable to me.
And on good times i can do something similar.
With weeks on end without much of any loss.
Though i cant recreate her ability to catch the 50+ pip or 200 pip moves.

It seems to me now that what she was able to do was to understand what i now would term "Lift" and "Cap".
Lift is when price looks like a triangle with the hypotenus as a roof.
And cap is when price looks like a triangle with the hypotenus as a floor.
By that i mean:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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What to call this makes no difference.
Dont get stuck on the words i use.
Understand the concept.

So when you see lift you get ready to buy and when you see cap you get ready to sell.
However there is always the problem of fake breakouts and such.
So if price goes up/down the red line and then goes back behind it again the trade gets iffy.
But cap and lift is quite reliable.
More so then range breakouts.
My signature is: "Classified".
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