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The Swamp

  • #104,241
  • Sep 25, 2022 8:37pm Sep 25, 2022 8:37pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} Gator do you have 9620 in your chart?
Since .9595 was hit.. the largest thing i have is .9606/06
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,242
  • Sep 25, 2022 8:38pm Sep 25, 2022 8:38pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} my ultimate stop around 0.9666..I take close to 5% risk
stop out.. crazy market
  • #104,243
  • Sep 25, 2022 8:41pm Sep 25, 2022 8:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Mid week at close. Retailers, and hedge funds were net long. We dont know what happened since. Atm it looks like someone closed a lot of longs, or added shorts. I think more shorts will close .9595/50 area. I think more longs will be added there. That is probably a place that tilts the balance to longs. Not that the main trend will change. The last one I see like this was 1250 pips. I think 1.0349 is not so far. At 750 ish pips. {image} {image}
I think this is the balance point. For commercials and hedge funds. .9595/50 area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,244
  • Sep 25, 2022 8:44pm Sep 25, 2022 8:44pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} stop out.. crazy market
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,245
  • Edited 9:14pm Sep 25, 2022 8:49pm | Edited 9:14pm
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If pa rises now with bad usd news. This could be a nice tech bounce. The directional trend down is strong. I have no argument with that. Just know this is the place commercials/NC recognize. Its twin may end up being 1.1145 (next year). Just know the valid retrace could be 1.0805.5. So 1.0349 is not so far. Its just what i have. Right or wrong. Do not overleverage. 2 shrinking quarters is considered a recession.

In the Great Depression, GDP fell by 27% (the deepest after demobilization is the recession beginning in December 2007, during which GDP has fallen 5.1% as of the second quarter of 2009) and unemployment rate reached 10% (the highest since was the 10.8% rate reached during the 1981–1982 recession).

List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/us-...sion-1.6534650
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,246
  • Sep 25, 2022 9:36pm Sep 25, 2022 9:36pm
Man hedgers are tough. GBP were 1250 pips down today, and still hang on. F that. close early with a loss. The GBP is up 250 pips since low.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,247
  • Sep 25, 2022 9:41pm Sep 25, 2022 9:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
Man hedgers are tough. GBP were 1250 pips down today, and still hang on. F that. close early with a loss. The GBP is up 250 pips since low. {image}
near 500 pips drop on the gbp.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,248
  • Sep 25, 2022 9:56pm Sep 25, 2022 9:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{image} If pa rises now with bad usd news. This could be a nice tech bounce. The directional trend down is strong. I have no argument with that. Just know this is the place commercials/NC recognize. Its twin may end up being 1.1145 (next year). Just know the valid retrace could be 1.0805.5. So 1.0349 is not so far. Its just what i have. Right or wrong. Do not overleverage. 2 shrinking quarters is considered a recession. In the Great Depression, GDP fell by 27% (the deepest after demobilization is the recession beginning in December 2007, during...
hi gator, i would like to see bounce near parity as your numbers showed 0.995.
  • #104,249
  • Sep 25, 2022 10:01pm Sep 25, 2022 10:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} near 500 pips drop on the gbp. {image}
I just saw that too... omg.....glad I am not in gbp.....
I took some hit in Eur ...sideline for now...
may trade in US session... try to recover some loss later
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  • #104,250
  • Sep 25, 2022 10:01pm Sep 25, 2022 10:01pm
Quoting hans91
{quote} hi gator, i would like to see bounce near parity as your numbers showed 0.995.
dono.. its about to hit 9668 pool.. Near after it could drop some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,251
  • Sep 25, 2022 10:02pm Sep 25, 2022 10:02pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just saw that too... omg.....glad I am not in gbp..... I took some hit in Eur ...sideline for now... may trade in US session... try to recover some loss later {image}
;
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,252
  • Sep 25, 2022 10:06pm Sep 25, 2022 10:06pm
heads up on .9945.. If pa blows past it 50+ pips. Its probably unprotested by the big boys. End of the month/quarter now.. some rebalancing should come.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,253
  • Sep 25, 2022 10:14pm Sep 25, 2022 10:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its far away. I dont suggest longing it. next week as a general rule. Its better than 50/50 to return to .9945. Next quarter 1.0349 is about 50/50. So if .9595 was to hold (remain untouched). 1.0349 would have a better shot. When .9780 was hit. It usually have a large bounce to follow. The rule of the 11.5% for stops is just my way of taking a s/l. Its not going to influence pa. I have that to save my ass.
Its next week now. .9595 was touched. It completed the .9595 algo. It has a normal reaction to reverse after. The nearest large valid pool is 1.0805.5. A smaller one at .9949
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,254
  • Sep 26, 2022 12:59am Sep 26, 2022 12:59am
just wake up. and saw this bloodbath. hope it starts to climb now.
  • #104,255
  • Sep 26, 2022 1:19am Sep 26, 2022 1:19am
Quoting crowleyjr
just wake up. and saw this bloodbath. hope it starts to climb now.
It will most likely fall till the end of day. London and Newyork must get a taste of that bottom before it rises. If it rises from where without those two sessions touching that bottom then know for a fact that the bottom is not yet in. It then means that it will rise to crash much lower.
  • #104,256
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:28am Sep 26, 2022 4:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since .9595 was hit.. the largest thing i have is .9606/06
.9663+ a little slip may be all it gives on a shallow retrace.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,257
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:39am Sep 26, 2022 4:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Since .9595 was hit.. the largest thing i have is .9606/06
Now largest .9663.x/slip. Near it now. PA traveled more than 25% back to .9949
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,258
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:42am Sep 26, 2022 4:42am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just saw that too... omg.....glad I am not in gbp..... I took some hit in Eur ...sideline for now... may trade in US session... try to recover some loss later {image}
Am with you my friend. That drop has taken my sl as well. But at least good to see bear touched the key support area and its from daily tf
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #104,259
  • Sep 26, 2022 4:50am Sep 26, 2022 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} .9663+ a little slip may be all it gives on a shallow retrace.
normal is more like 9625. If its not normal, than bears are in bad shape. Being in a downtrend, and unable to do a normal retrace. Would not be the best sign for bears. A smaller second pool at 9650.7

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,260
  • Sep 26, 2022 5:11am Sep 26, 2022 5:11am
CHF may looks to test .9911
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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