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  • #104,041
  • Sep 21, 2022 1:40am Sep 21, 2022 1:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A good time to sell FOMC pump. Sweet spot looking to be somewhere in the 1.0059/80 zone
pa went to 1.0050. I missed my 1.0059 entry. I was wrong about it reaching 1.0059 before FOMC. The euro across the board it week. The eu will either return to 1.0059, or .9780 next. 1.0059 is not looking good now. Its already more than 1/2 way to .9780.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,042
  • Sep 21, 2022 1:43am Sep 21, 2022 1:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here 143.99 on EJ now. Its a yen pair. So some slippage should be expected. Plus the eu still hasn't hit 1.0059 either. Or any eu slippage. Still 33 hs till FOMC {image}
here is the first 200 pips drop on the EJ
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,043
  • Sep 21, 2022 1:48am Sep 21, 2022 1:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa went to 1.0050. I missed my 1.0059 entry. I was wrong about it reaching 1.0059 before FOMC. The euro across the board it week. The eu will either return to 1.0059, or .9780 next. 1.0059 is not looking good now. Its already more than 1/2 way to .9780. {image}
Expect chop, and head fakes.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,044
  • Sep 21, 2022 2:05am Sep 21, 2022 2:05am
eu missed 1.0059 by 9 pips. Next up could be 1.0000.2.+ Still developing. You may want to consider this trend is strong. 1.00x may miss by 9 too. After 2hs+ from now it may run to 1.00x+
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,045
  • Sep 21, 2022 2:23am Sep 21, 2022 2:23am
After those 2hs, and before FOMC. 1.00 may happen. Before eventually the larger .9780. 1.0059 is still valid. Its never been as strong as .9780. Fomc 1% raise odds improved some. That may have held the euro down, away from 1.0059. Those other euro crosses will hit those other numbers at some point. It will take a little longer for the liquid to seek its level. 1.0059 may be a reject place in the future. .9945 also next week may be R area.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,046
  • Sep 21, 2022 2:29am Sep 21, 2022 2:29am
Quoting gatorinla
After those 2hs, and before FOMC. 1.00 may happen. Before eventually the larger .9780. 1.0059 is still valid. Its never been as strong as .9780. Fomc 1% raise odds improved some. That may have held the euro down. Those other euro crosses will hit those other numbers at some point. It will take a little longer for the liquid to seek its level. {image}
hi Gator, with those all bad news about Russia, inflation, and all many issue within europe. is it possible if reach area you mentioned she will fly to 1.03 area? looks like euro will doomed.
  • #104,047
  • Sep 21, 2022 4:15am Sep 21, 2022 4:15am
Quoting hans91
{quote} hi Gator, with those all bad news about Russia, inflation, and all many issue within europe. is it possible if reach area you mentioned she will fly to 1.03 area? looks like euro will doomed.
1.0349 may not be in this conversation yet. The Q is still open. I'm using information 20 years old. I;m finding out brokers dont keep information accurate. I often have differences in price. I dont know if its on purpose or not. I have to go through several brokers and see what ones are closest in numbers. And even when I find these. I have to do it again as time goes on. Because even the 2 that were best end up changing accuracy. I may have to revert back to one i kicked out earlier to get info to match. A never ending process. I have .9803 or 9780. Needing a fill. I think .9780 is the one, slippage could bring it lower.


The larger bounce may be after reaching .9595 (the slippage here may be large, a good time to close shorts. ). It would be against most pressure to return to 1.0349. I'm waiting for something else to pop up.

Atm, I dont have any reason to long. 1.00 may be a short. Next week that may be .9945.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,048
  • Sep 21, 2022 4:25am Sep 21, 2022 4:25am
The trend is down. All your indicators are bearish. An interest rate hike is coming. Yet it may run back to 9957, 1.0 or 1.0059. just to rip your face off.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,049
  • Sep 21, 2022 5:08am Sep 21, 2022 5:08am
Day 210, in Putin's 3 day war against Ukraine. Putin threatens West with a non-bluff. That was over 4hs ago. That may have weakened the eur earlier https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...er-2022-09-21/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/russ...ilization.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,050
  • Sep 21, 2022 5:31am Sep 21, 2022 5:31am
Quoting gatorinla
The trend is down. All your indicators are bearish. An interest rate hike is coming. Yet it may run back to 9957, 1.0 or 1.0059. just to rip your face off.
That would be fun to watch. But certainly 9955 or your 9957 is the next key to me
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #104,051
  • Sep 21, 2022 8:37am Sep 21, 2022 8:37am
no trade this morning.... sideline.. wait for FMOC..
Eur bearish from M5 to month....
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  • #104,052
  • Sep 21, 2022 8:49am Sep 21, 2022 8:49am
A 75 bp increase and a pump then the sell-off is what i'm hoping. Placed some short orders, waiting...
  • #104,053
  • Sep 21, 2022 8:49am Sep 21, 2022 8:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Cot also had the eur looking weaker on crosses. It may Gap down. Like last weeks gap up. Don't over risk. Have a s/l of no more than 1%. This is a yen pair. You have to plan a s/l before hand. A short is counter trend. For those yellow lines to be valid. Slippage can not be more than 50 pips above each yellow level. This is a wide scalp entry. But one trying to get a position trade on a bounce. When in those yellow levels look for your favorite indi entry. Void it if it dont look right. If you blow your account trading a yen pair...
Eur as advertised across the board.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,054
  • Sep 21, 2022 8:54am Sep 21, 2022 8:54am
Quoting crowleyjr
A 75 bp increase and a pump then the sell-off is what i'm hoping. Placed some short orders, waiting...
I agree about the pump and dump - or sell the rumor and buy the fact.

What short order have you placed - what pair? Just curious as I am expecting the USD to retrace back to the 109.5 area by EOD
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #104,055
  • Sep 21, 2022 9:00am Sep 21, 2022 9:00am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I agree about the pump and dump - or sell the rumor and buy the fact. What short order have you placed - what pair? Just curious as I am expecting the USD to retrace back to the 109.5 area by EOD
I've had positions that 've been hedged before. So i'm looking after somewhere profitable for them.

AU-NU sell limits placed some high and UC buy limit placed some low. Not gonna trade EU today i guess.
  • #104,056
  • Sep 21, 2022 9:40am Sep 21, 2022 9:40am
Quoting hans91
{quote} hi Gator, with those all bad news about Russia, inflation, and all many issue within europe. is it possible if reach area you mentioned she will fly to 1.03 area? looks like euro will doomed.
The eu is very bearish. The best chance for a large bounce is when .9596 is reached. Allow some slippage. eu hasn't kit a number this large in over 20 years. I dont have a past bounce to compare it to for slippage or bounce. 1.0349 would be possible. Although its hard to see the eu rising that much using fudis. 1.0805 would be a like number. Neither has finished developing. When pa reaches .9596 it would be time to look for a bottom. You dont want to catch the falling knife. It can go deeper. But like i said. I have nothing to compare this large one to. But its time to look for something building some bullish tendencies. It could be a quick move North, it could spend a year consolidating/range there. To me, its a place to close shorts. Then let things develop. As time goes on. 1.0349 or 1.08055 may develop. If it does, The next largest support is 0.7701. With some others smaller, but substantiable levels at 0.9335 and 0.9069. Any one could flip pa more many months+.

What I was looking at with 0.9780, is a baby level comparably. These smaller levels like .9898, have proven bounces of 300+ pips. .9596-area, should be able to produce larger bounces.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,057
  • Sep 21, 2022 10:09am Sep 21, 2022 10:09am
unreal wasted opportunity. The average was 1.06xx last week.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,058
  • Sep 21, 2022 10:25am Sep 21, 2022 10:25am
The last time here was Sept 6. Following NFP on Sept 2. A 0.75% rise was baked in the future. Today is that future. If its just 0.75% today, the baked in amount. Pa has a chance to bounce, if its not a 1.0% raise. It likes to drop below the previous low. To catch those longs s/l 20ish pips below the low.

Atm none of us know that new rate number. A dump before the release, could be opposite of a pump before. Its often opposite of the news direction.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,059
  • Sep 21, 2022 10:43am Sep 21, 2022 10:43am
NY AG going after Orange man hard.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #104,060
  • Sep 21, 2022 11:37am Sep 21, 2022 11:37am
Protests starting in Russia.
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