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USDCHF - the pair has reached a strong resistance level of 0.9850

The USDCHF pair has reached the resistance level of 0.985, and the probability of further growth remains against the backdrop of the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the regulator may raise the rate by 75 basis points, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the EU economy is under pressure: the lack of energy resources, rising inflation, and a slowdown in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and since Switzerland has close economic ties with the EU, negative factors are reflected in the macroeconomic indicators of this country as well. On Monday, Q2 GDP was published: the value consolidated around 2.8% YoY, which was worse than analysts' expectations of 3.0%, and it added 0.3% QoQ compared to the forecast of 0.4%. Thus, the likelihood of further weakening of the Swiss franc remains, and the long-term trend in the USD/CHF pair is likely to continue. For the development of positive dynamics, the "bulls" need to overcome the resistance level of 0.9850 and consolidate above it, and then the target for purchases will be 1.0040 around the highs of May-June 2022. The medium-term trend remains upward. Last week the market participants broke through the target zone 3 (0.9784–0.9771), and the next target for purchases is zone 4 (0.9926–0.9912). The key support is shifting to 0.9729–0.9715, and if the price corrects into this area, then new long positions in the asset should be considered.

Resistance levels: 0.985, 1.004 | Support levels: 0.965, 0.96

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EURUSD - The euro is falling under the pressure of poor statistics

Investors are highly likely to expect a rate hike of 75 basis points. The tighter monetary stimulus will put unprecedented pressure on households and industry, and is likely to slow economic growth, leading to higher unemployment, said Jerome Powell, the head of the department, but he considers these consequences inevitable in the context of the targeted inflation containment. Regulatory speakers signal that the agency will stick to a hawkish policy until consumer prices decline steadily, implying an interest rate hike to 4% by the end of 2022 / beginning of 2023. The long-term trend is downwards. Market participants broke through 0.9950 and consolidated below it, and the next target for the fall is 0.9800, and it is worth opening short positions during the correction from 1. The medium-term trend is downwards, and the "bears" have broken through the target zone 2 (0.9944–0.9923) this week and are trying to keep the price below. If the trading week closes below this range, the next target will be zone 3 (0.9732–0.9711), and the trend's key resistance will move to 1.0096–1.0075.

Resistance levels: 1, 1.03 | Support levels: 0.98, 0.962

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ADAUSD - Candlestick Analysis

H4
The four-hour chart shows the formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern, which included a reversal candlestick Hammer, as well as the appearance at the level of 0.4718 of the Three Advancing White Soldiers and Hammer patterns. The combination of these patterns signals that the asset has reached the bottom level, where buyers have become active. In the current situation, a scenario with the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5831 seems likely, overcoming which will open the way for the "bulls" to the area of 0.7820–0.9362. An alternative scenario is likely in case the "bears" break through the key support level of 0.4159, and then the decline may intensify up to the level of 0.2098. D1
The daily chart shows that the asset has been consolidating for a long time in the range of 0.4159–0.5831, which may indicate a likely upward reversal. In addition, the fact that the asset has reached the area of low prices, where the "bulls" have activated, is also signaled by the formation of Hammer and Inverted Hammer reversal patterns, while another Bullish Engulfing reversal pattern has formed below the level of 0.4718, which included the Inverted Hammer candle. At the moment, the upward dynamics to the level of 0.5831 seems to be the most probable. In case of a breakout of the key resistance level, the asset may recover higher to the area of 0.7820–0.9362.

Support levels: 0.4159, 0.3031, 0.2098 | Resistance levels: 0.5831, 0.7820, 0.9362


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Walmart

Shares of Walmart, the US company that operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, are moving around 135.

On the daily chart, after reaching the support line at 130, the price reversed and began to correct, forming a local channel with boundaries of 130–145. On the 4-hour chart, the uptrend has a high chance of continuation as the underlying Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 134.20 was easily overcome. The next resistance is an intermediate Fibonacci 50.0% correction at 139.3, which will become the target for local growth. Technical indicators confirm the upward momentum: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed an upward bar in the buying zone.

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USDCAD - A fall is possible

On the weekly chart the downward correctional wave of the higher level 4 develops, within which the wave (C) of 4 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (C) has formed, a local correction has ended as the wave 2 of (C), and the third wave 3 of (C) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCAD pair will fall to the area of 1.2374 – 1.201. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3224.
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USDCHF - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward fifth wave of the higher level 5 develops, within which the first wave (1) of 5 forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, and a local correction has ended as the second wave 2 of (1), within which the wave c of 2 has developed.

If the assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will fall within the wave 3 of (1) to the area of 0.92 – 0.8916. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9889.
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GBPUSD - Quotes have renewed the minimum of 2020

Members of the US Federal Reserve are unanimous in their opinion that the main interest rate should be further increased, and already at the September meeting, the value can be adjusted immediately by 75 basis points and brought to 3.75 – 4% next year. The regulator's policy implies a reduction in the balance sheet and a tightening of monetary policy to control record inflation and bring it to a neutral indicator of 2% YoY. The US swaps in the market place an 80% chance of a 75 bps rate hike, and the market is pricing hawkish rhetoric from the financial authorities ahead of time. The long-term downtrend for the GBPUSD instrument is likely to continue, and for this, the “bears” need to break the 2020 low at 1.144. After consolidation below it, the next sales target will be 1.13; if it is held, an upward correction with the targets 1.1695 and 1.1770 will begin. The medium-term trend remains downward. Last week the traders broke through the target zone 2 (1.1572–1.1536), and the next sell target is zone 3 (1.1212–1.1176), while the key resistance is shifting to 1.1801–1.1765. If reached, it will be possible to consider new short positions with the first target at the current week's low of around 1.1410.

Resistance levels: 1.1695, 1.1768 | Support levels: 1.144, 1.13

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EURUSD - Market awaiting ECB interest rate decision

Thus, the Q2 EU economy increased by 0.8%, which exceeded the forecasted 0.6%: gross domestic product (GDP) growth amounted to 4.1% YoY compared to 5.4% in the previous period. Nevertheless, it was higher than preliminary estimates of 3.9%, allowing the European Central Bank to continue tightening monetary policy parameters without fear of a possible recession. At the moment, analysts expect an interest rate hike of 75 basis points from 0.5% to 1.25%, but this forecast was made without considering yesterday's GDP data, which means that the agency can act more aggressively by adjusting the value by 100 basis points.

The American currency did not stay at absolute highs for a long time, and by the end of yesterday's trading fell below 110 in the USD Index and is now trading around 109.7. The main reason for the negative dynamics of the asset was the disappointment of investors in mortgage interest rates: the indicator almost reached an absolute maximum of 6%, amounting to 5.94%, and against this background, demand for mortgages in the United States fell to a minimum in 22 years. The index of the number of mortgage applications fell to 258.1 points from 705.6 points at the beginning of the year, and the downward trend continues. The trading instrument is moving toward the support line within the global downward channel. Technical indicators keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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Crude Oil - The market is waiting for India's decision on the introduction of a cap on oil prices from the Russian Federation

Brent Crude Oil is correcting slightly above 88 after losing significantly yesterday amid forecasts from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), as well as due to India's possible entry into the ceiling level discussion of the oil price.

As Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo told Bloomberg, the Indian authorities are currently studying the initiative of the G7 members, which, also to limited pricing, involves a ban on the insurance of ships transporting Russian oil at a higher cost. Investors fear that if restrictions are approved by the key buyer of oil from the Russian Federation, the demand for resources may decrease significantly, which will undoubtedly affect the price. We also recall yesterday's statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stressed that no oil would be supplied to countries that supported the decision to introduce a marginal cost level. On the daily chart, the price is moving within a downwards corridor, gradually approaching the support line. Technical indicators maintain a stable sell signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming down bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 91.53, 98.82 | Support levels: 86.85, 79.95

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Gold - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, a local correction has ended as the second wave ii of 1 of (5) and the third wave iii of 1 of (5) is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow within the wave iii of 1 to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1687.79.

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NZDUSD - Candlestick Analysis H4
On the four-hour chart, at the support level of 0.6031, there is a formation of a reversal Bullish Engulfing candlestick analysis pattern, signaling a change in the balance of power towards buyers, as well as a Gravestone Doji pattern, which, as a rule, appears at the top and is reversal. It can also be fixed at the base, but for this it is necessary to obtain additional confirmation. In the current situation, the likely scenario is the growth of the asset to the resistance level of 0.6172, overcoming which will allow the "bulls" to head higher to the range of 0.6453–0.6703. An alternative scenario is likely if the "bears" break through the key support level of 0.6031, and the price may drop to the area of 0.5849–0.5622. D1
The daily chart shows the formation of two Hammer figures, which are reversal and signal that the price has reached the bottom. In this case, long positions can be opened after overcoming the resistance level of 0.6172, when the "bulls" test it. If the buyers fail to hold the level of 0.6031, the negative dynamics may intensify up to the level of 0.5622.

Support levels: 0.6031, 0.5849, 0.5622 | Resistance levels: 0.6172, 0.6453, 0.6703

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Crude Oil - The price is in a correction; a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave c of 2 develops. Now, the fifth wave (v) of c is forming, within which the wave iii of (v) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, Crude Oil price will fall to the area of 77.5 – 62.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 97.6.
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Shares of eBay, an American online retailer, are trading at 44.

On the daily chart, the price, having left the limits of the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 38 – 45, is kept above it, despite approaching the previously passed resistance level. On the four-hour chart, it is seen that the attempt to enter a full-fledged correction failed, the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction level at 50 was not broken, and the quotes received a downward impulse, directing them to the year's low at 40.40, which may be reached in the coming days. Technical indicators have reversed and are holding a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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GBPUSD - The instrument is moving within the global downward channel

Investors are evaluating the announcement of the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss on the abolition from next month of indexation of electricity bills, which will now not exceed 2.5K pounds a year. She also stated the need to expand the sources of electricity supply through increased oil and gas production in the North Sea. Although households have taken the initiative of the official positively, for the economy as a whole, this may become a new problem since 130 – 150 B pounds annually will need to be allocated to finance such a measure. Some experts suggested that these funds would be raised through government loans, which would then be repaid through gradual tariff increases over two years.

In the UK, national mourning has begun in connection with the death of Queen Elizabeth II. The heir to the throne was her son, Prince Charles of Wales, who will be officially proclaimed King Charles III on September 10. The country may enter a new era of change, and it is not yet known how actively the new monarch will be involved in the state's political affairs. The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, reversing towards a local increase. Technical indicators maintain a weakening sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range narrows slightly, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars.

Resistance levels: 1.1652, 1.2 | Support levels: 1.14, 1.115

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Silver - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower-level v of C of (2) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v, and the local correction as the wave (iv) of v.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will fall to the area of 17 – 15.8. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 20.83.

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AUDUSD: consolidation after reaching local highs in August

The AUDUSD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating near 0.6830. Investors are trying to predict the situation in the market after many currencies showed a confident upward rally against the US dollar at the end of last week. So, for only one trading session on Friday, September 9, the Australian dollar recovered to the local highs of August 31.

At the same time, traders were disappointed by the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics from China, where, in particular, a decrease in inflation in August by 0.1% from 0.5% last month was recorded, while the growth rate adjusted from 2.7% to 2.5% YoY with preliminary estimates of experts at 2.8%, which is a signal of a slowdown in the national economy. Following the publication by the analytical company Impact Economics and Policy of information about the inflated costs of post-COVID rehabilitation of citizens in the amount of 3.6B US dollars, the Australian authorities launched a parliamentary inquiry to determine the exact number of people who need medical care after an infection. In particular, according to the information provided, taking into account weekly expenses, which amount to about 100.0M Australian dollars, the losses of the national budget for the year amount to 5.2B Australian dollars. As a result, the authorities will submit a report that will collect expropriated treatments and determine whether those who have been ill will be able to receive payments from the state.

On Thursday, Australian investors are focused on the report on the national labor market for August, and analysts predict an increase in employment by 50.0K after falling by 40.9K last month. On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse in the horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic shows a confident upward direction, but at the moment, it is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6853, 0.69, 0.695, 0.7 | Support levels: 0.680, 0.675, 0.67, 0.665

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The Home Depot

On the daily chart, the correction is developing within a wide corridor with dynamic boundaries of 350 – 290.

On the four-hour chart, after reaching the support line, the quotes reversed upwards, breaking the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 298. Holding the trading instrument above it is a key factor for the continuation of the upward trend, the target of which is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 315. Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range narrows actively, and the histogram of the AO oscillator, trading in the sell zone, forms new rising bars.

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USDCAD - Candlestick analysis H4

On the four-hour chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, there is the formation of Hanging man and Shooting star reversal models of candlestick analysis, as well as the appearance of the Three black crows trend continuation pattern at 1.302. At the opening of the trading session, the “bulls” tried unsuccessfully to restore their positions, which is confirmed by the “Bearish” belt hold figure. However, in the current situation, the continuation of the downward dynamics of the asset to the support level of 1.2960 is likely, the breakdown of which allows the “bears” to head lower to the area of 1.2661− 1.2322. If the buyers hold the support level of 1.2960 and the price reverses upwards, the growth to the resistance level of 1.3214 is expected, the breakout of which will become a catalyst for the movement to the area of 1.3412−1.3729. D1
On the daily chart, under the resistance level of 1.3214, a series of Shooting star and Hanging man reversal candlestick patterns are formed, which signal that the price has reached the local high and the market is under the control of the “bears.” Also, the Three black crow's downtrend continuation model has formed, and in this situation, most likely, a further decline in the asset in the range of 1.2960–1.2322 is expected.

Support levels: 1.2960, 1.2661, 1.2322 | Resistance levels: 1.3214, 1.3412, 1.3729

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USDCHF - Franc seized the initiative in the pair

At the end of last week, unemployment data was published: the figure has been holding at 2.0% for the third consecutive month, which is the average for Switzerland, recorded even before the coronavirus pandemic. The manufacturing sector corrected by –0.5% after seven quarters of growth, primarily due to falling exports in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Analysts suggest that in August, the producer price index will add 0.1%, significantly yielding to the early summer indicator of 1.0–1.2%, while the value may continue to correct and consolidate below 6.3% YoY, reflecting the second month of negative dynamics in a row.
Despite achieving 108.5 points in the USD Index, the US dollar is trading above the average value at the beginning of the year. As for the local dynamics, it will completely depend on tomorrow's publication of data on consumer prices. Analysts assume that the energy component of inflation will weaken its influence, and the indicator will drop from 8.5% to 8.1%, while the core value, which does not consider fuel and food prices, will adjust from 5.9% to 6.1%. On the daily chart, the price is trading within a downwards corridor, and technical indicators are already ready for the next reversal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the buying zone, is ready to cross the transition level.

Support levels: 0.9539, 0.9412 | Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.977

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Dow Jones - Dynamics in the bond market hinder the growth of the index

Due to the lack of fundamental news, the focus of investors is still on the message from the manufacturer of construction and mining equipment Caterpillar Inc. on the settlement of a dispute with the US Internal Revenue Service relating to the payment of fees totaling 2.4B dollars by the Swedish division of the company. The proceedings lasted more than a year, and investors will finally be able not to fear that the issuer's debt burden will increase since all penalties have now been lifted.

Nevertheless, the key factor influencing the quotes of the Dow Jones index will soon be the dynamics in the bond market. Already, auctions will be held for the placement of three-month, six-month, three-year, and ten-year treasury notes and bills. Given the current high bond prices, there is no doubt that rates in all categories will significantly exceed previous performance. Thus, the last placement rate on ten-year notes was 2.755%, and now they are traded above 3.34%. The growth of yield is an unconditional negative signal for the stock market, rapidly losing its investment attractiveness.

The trading instrument shows corrective dynamics without a specific direction. Technical indicators continue to hold a sell signal, which periodically weakens: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range remains quite wide, and the AO oscillator histogram forms new rising bars in the sell zone.

Support levels: 31813, 30990 | Resistance levels: 32557, 33300

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