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  • #661
  • Aug 26, 2022 11:19am Aug 26, 2022 11:19am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote}{quote} . In many cases price does reverse and go the way you want it, but there are enough trades that don't do that to damage your balance significantly. Once they have gone bad it is very difficult to close them with a significant loss, and so we wait and hope and wait and hope and it keeps going worse. Just one or two trades amongst many can cause major losses. I'm speaking from experience here..
these are the words of wisdom from a experienced trader.
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no common trader can anticipate this move.
so 2lots..... book profitn at t1.
move SL at BE for second lot.

at least you wont loose
  • #662
  • Aug 26, 2022 4:57pm Aug 26, 2022 4:57pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I'm not sure about the last sentence. Rajesh - I'm sure I have seen you say something like this before - could you comment? The gap between the LT and 10 EMA channel took place during the initial trend. Now we are just seeing a follow through, so that lack of gap isn't a deal-breaker.
I was just following the pdf that you took the effort to produce. Unless I have misunderstood it, which is more than likely as I am totally new to this thread/strategy, paragraph 4 of the pdf reads as follows:

'We should also be aware of the Guppy rules: (i) the L/T EMA's should not show compression; and (ii) there should be a clear gap between the S/T and L/T groups of EMA's. Dr Walverkar has replaced the S/T group with the 10EMA, but he still advises looking at a standard Guppy chart to check that the gap has appeared.'

Unless I missed previous post to say otherwise within the thread but it has been clarified in https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14114546 by Dr Walverkar.
  • #663
  • Aug 29, 2022 4:52pm Aug 29, 2022 4:52pm
Both charts are for XTI/USD

I believe this would have been a valid entry, would I correct?

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Would this have been correct application of the fib? Shows 50% retracement...

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  • #664
  • Aug 31, 2022 5:16am Aug 31, 2022 5:16am
Not quite ready yet but any thoughts on this?

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  • #665
  • Aug 31, 2022 5:21am Aug 31, 2022 5:21am
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  • #666
  • Edited 9:15am Aug 31, 2022 7:36am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting Bee-Hop
Not quite ready yet but any thoughts on this? {image}
Your questions sparked an unrelated thought that might help.

We get two main types of pullbacks - little ones and big ones (such wisdom and insight ). Some call the big pullbacks refreshes, and it is these that are what Rajesh advocates using for entries. They occur after price has been moving steadily with some small pulbacks along the way. It seems that the interval between refreshes can be anything from 5 bars to 20 bars. So entering after price has been moving steadily for a time starts becoming dangerous because the odds of a refresh happening become greater. If you use a big stop distance (like the swing point before the most recent one) you can survive such a big pullback, and sometimes not even then. So the wisdom in the Walvekar method is to ignore small pullbacks (although Rajesh's recent introduction of a flag pattern pullback is a bit of a curveball) and wait for a clear refresh where price retraces back to or close to the LT EMAs. These often lead to strong subsequent moves. To make things even safer, I advocate for using a stop order so that if price continues retracing you might not get triggered prematurely. The Walvekar entry method of using a break of the 10 EMA channel is another way of achieving a similar thing in that it delays the entry until price has gained momentum (noting that once price is moving outside / beyond the 10 EMA channel, we consider it to be a strong trend).

In the example I posted we have pullbacks and a refresh, but this pair is currently undergoing a monster refresh. Who knows whether this will turn into a proper reversal, or whether it will resume its down move. But given that price has been moving steadily and relentlessly down since the beginning of June, I'm not in the mood for selling now. Let it go further down if it wants, but I'm not keen to get caught in a bullish reversal.
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  • #667
  • Aug 31, 2022 7:46am Aug 31, 2022 7:46am
Quoting Bee-Hop
{quote} I was just following the pdf that you took the effort to produce. Unless I have misunderstood it, which is more than likely as I am totally new to this thread/strategy, paragraph 4 of the pdf reads as follows: 'We should also be aware of the Guppy rules: (i) the L/T EMA's should not show compression; and (ii) there should be a clear gap between the S/T and L/T groups of EMA's. Dr Walverkar has replaced the S/T group with the 10EMA, but he still advises looking at a standard Guppy chart to check that the gap has appeared.' Unless I missed...
The way I have come to understand this is that the initial trend must be formed correctly with a clear gap etc, but thereafter as long as we get a good pullback (refresh) then we can ignore that requirement as having been fulfilled earlier in the trend. As long as price breaks out of the 10 EMA channel (and the RSIs are pointing the correct way etc), then we are good to go. I think the manual can be taken as the "orthodox" position that is being interpreted along the way. It introduces grey areas that will puzzle you, but that's how it is.
  • #668
  • Edited 12:38pm Aug 31, 2022 12:20pm | Edited 12:38pm
try to keep things simple .....
there are no hard and fast rules.

let me try to explain.
guppy is a trend trading system. the trend is decided by the long term guppies.

1 ) this is a random chart of my templete.
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now, why 10 ema channel instead of short term guppies?
here i have removed the long term guppies and the 10 ema channel and short term guppies are in place....
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you can see clearly that the channel and the guppies go hand in hand......
i found 10 ema convinient.... you can replace with 7,8,9... or anythng.
but it is easier to intrprete the channel and color change rather than the short term guppies.

2 ) guppy does not clearly define entry or may be i didnt understand it correctly. so we defined our entry as close of candle beyond the channel.

3 ) a stoploss at the opposite end of the channel is logical, no roket science in that. in a good trend, the price action will not go near the high/low of the entry cande. so even that can be your initial SL.

4 ) to define targets..... i found fib expansion 1.6 gets hit almos all the time. so 2 lots, book profit of 1 lot at T1, move stoploss of second lot to break even.
if T1 is not hit and the trade goes against you, initial SL at entry ie. the other end of ema channel, is hit.... you loose. but this is the risk you have to take in any trade. again i never recommended a SL at swing high/low. for me its a too big a risk. once T1 is acheived, your trade becomes risk free...

5 ) to define the streangth of the trend or momentum. rsi 6/12 come into play and off course the ema channel. as long as the rsi are allighned (and below/above 50 ) and candle close is outside the channel, the momentum is strong, the strength of the trend is strong. so for your risk free second lot, you may ride the momentum or book profits when ever you feel satisfied (or fibo expansion targets ). trailing SL at the opposite end of the channel is the easiest way out( in a strong trend).

6 ) the zig zag in our templete are to define high/lows and to draw fibo retracements. any retracement upto 50% is a healthy retracement. it does not mean it has to be exactly at that levels. but anything below 50% and candle close beyond ema channel in the direction of the trend is a very good entry.

7) about the color coding in our templete..... it is for visual intrerpretation. as long as the 30/60 are above/ below eachother the trend is up/down accordingly. only a crossover will define a change in trend.

8 ) any entry according to our rules close to the LT guppy is a low risk high reward trade. best entries are on the first pullback. in a very strong trend you mightnot get a significant pullback.
here flag trades come into play.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ding-the-trend

9) anything which can support your entry..... flag, trendline break, rsi trendline break, rsi below/above 50, divergence in any indicators, fundamental analysis, news....... etc. etc...... use it.

10 ) all hope trades are hopeless trades. take a calculated risk.

  • #669
  • Edited 5:28pm Aug 31, 2022 5:12pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting Bee-Hop
Not quite ready yet but any thoughts on this? {image}
This is now in play...will monitor the progress

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  • #670
  • Sep 1, 2022 9:12am Sep 1, 2022 9:12am
Quoting Bee-Hop
Hi guys, {image} I believe this meets the rules, please confirm/deny. I have left the chart unmarked so everything can be clearly seen but I will try to explain everything here. We have a change in trend from the green dash line - downtrend. All L/T EMAs are evenly spread. The candle to close beyond the 10EMA channel is the entry candle. RSI 6 and RSI 12 are below 50 level. The fib tool is to be applied from the low of the breakout candle to the high of the recent swing high. Have I misses anything?
Gold melting...
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  • #671
  • Sep 1, 2022 9:21am Sep 1, 2022 9:21am
Quoting walvekarraje
try to keep things simple ..... there are no hard and fast rules. let me try to explain. guppy is a trend trading system. the trend is decided by the long term guppies. 1 ) this is a random chart of my templete.{image} now, why 10 ema channel instead of short term guppies? here i have removed the long term guppies and the 10 ema channel and short term guppies are in place.... {image} you can see clearly that the channel and the guppies go hand in hand...... i found 10 ema convinient.... you can replace with 7,8,9... or anythng. but it is easier...
Hey guys,

@Walvekarraje, what is a pullback? Is there a set of rules to explain or a number of candles that make a pullback a pullback? Or is it a case that you see a retracement and then the first candle that closes above the channel to form the entry candle considered as a pullback having been completed?

What would consider as a the pullback in the image attached, the yellow circle or the green circle? I suppose one could enter on the first (yellow) but would potentially get stopped out but could enter again on the last green candle (green circle).

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  • #672
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:28pm Sep 2, 2022 12:28pm
new trade
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target 1
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all according to rules.
  • #673
  • Sep 2, 2022 12:53pm Sep 2, 2022 12:53pm
Quoting Bee-Hop
{quote} Hey guys, @Walvekarraje, what is a pullback? Is there a set of rules to explain or a number of candles that make a pullback a pullback? Or is it a case that you see a retracement and then the first candle that closes above the channel to form the entry candle considered as a pullback having been completed? What would consider as a the pullback in the image attached, the yellow circle or the green circle? I suppose one could enter on the first (yellow) but would potentially get stopped out but could enter again on the last green candle (green...
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in your example in the yellow and green circle, rsi 6 has not crossed above 12 and both not above 50.... so no trade.
  • #674
  • Sep 3, 2022 5:28am Sep 3, 2022 5:28am
I was not taking into account the RSI as I was concentrating on what is a pullback, I dont believe I explained myself very well, hence the confusion. However, your last post has cleared up what I was trying to ask. Sometimes a image can explain more than just words.

Have a great weekend all.
  • #675
  • Sep 6, 2022 12:12pm Sep 6, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} welcome to the group. just to recap our entry rules for you {image} here is a UC trade just identified oncharts. 1) established downtrend from 24 aug 2) strong resistance at 50% fib.... 8 candles touching it almost to the pip. 3) our entry candle marked by green vertical line. at this candle.... a) long term guppy magenta in color well allighned and spaced... downtrend b)strong bearish candle closing decisively below ema channel. c) ema chanel red lower line yellow upper line.... suggesting downtrend.( if upper line was also red...
Hello Walvekar!
Why not an earlier entry as marked on my chart?
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  • #676
  • Sep 6, 2022 12:29pm Sep 6, 2022 12:29pm
Thanks to people keeping this thread alive, especially Walvekar and Spudfan.
  • #677
  • Sep 6, 2022 2:34pm Sep 6, 2022 2:34pm
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Hello Walvekar! Why not an earlier entry as marked on my chart? {image}
No reason not to, as far as I can see. However, I have started trading only in the direction of the timeframe one higher, and in this example H4 is bullish. I marked your H1 candle on 25 Aug with a vertical line and this is what it looks like on H4. No short for me. I think Rajesh does not need to do this as carefully because T1 calculated using the Walvekar method is in most cases close by, so, if you follow the method correctly, price is highly likely to reach it, regardless of dominant trend direction. But if you go for slightly more distant targets, then the dominant trend takes on greater importance. Neither method is right or wrong, it's just what is a good fit for you.

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  • #678
  • Sep 7, 2022 2:46pm Sep 7, 2022 2:46pm
i made a very stupid mistake today.

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took this trade at start of downtrend ( not according to our rules, but on strong resistance, and divergence )
first order instead of a sell order a buy order got executed.( my mistake)
second order was proper.
realised it just now.

any suggestions of how to correct this mistake?
  • #679
  • Sep 7, 2022 3:05pm Sep 7, 2022 3:05pm
Quoting walvekarraje
i made a very stupid mistake today. {image} took this trade at start of downtrend ( not according to our rules, but on strong resistance, and divergence ) first order instead of a sell order a buy order got executed.( my mistake) second order was proper. realised it just now. any suggestions of how to correct this mistake?
Welcome to being human! Mistakes happen.

I think you have two options, although by now you are a long way in loss.

1. All indications are that the USD will continue being bullish for some time, so you can live in hope that it will. Have a look at H4 - price might bounce off the Guppy 60 EMA, which is where it is now. The Guppy EMAs on H4 are clearly bullish - trust the system and it might pay off. But D1, oh my, it is going down
2. The other option - look for the close button, close your eyes and press it.
  • #680
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:37am Sep 8, 2022 5:37am
Quoting walvekarraje
i made a very stupid mistake today. {image} took this trade at start of downtrend ( not according to our rules, but on strong resistance, and divergence ) first order instead of a sell order a buy order got executed.( my mistake) second order was proper. realised it just now. any suggestions of how to correct this mistake?
Would it not be best to just close the buy trade? You have the sell the trade which will negate some of the loss of the other trade. Overall you will still be in a loss but only slightly.
What do you think?
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