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DAX 30 - German stock market remains under pressure

Frankfurt's leading index DAX 30 is correcting downward, trading at 12752. Quotes have changed their trend to a downtrend, and weak macroeconomic indicators and growth in the domestic bond market remain the key pressure factors. Experts' forecasts regarding the German economy are pessimistic. The key segment of the economy, the labor market, has been decelerating for the third month in a row: Unemployment Rate increased from 5.4% to 5.5% in August, and the Unemployment Change increased from 2.469 million to 2.497 million, adding 28.0 thousand over the reporting period.

The domestic bond market continues to grow rapidly, putting key pressure on the stock market. The yield on German 10-year government bonds rose to 1.5410% from 0.7610% in the month, 20-year bonds yield rose to 1.622% from 0.959% at the beginning of the month, and the yield on global 30-year bonds rose to 1.627%, which is much higher than 1.001% a month earlier. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is trading within a Triangle pattern, approaching the support line. Technical indicators reversed towards decline: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed the signal line from above, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved to the sales area, forming descending bars.

Support levels: 12528, 11703 | Resistance levels: 12973, 13933

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USDJPY - Growth is possible

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed, and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is developing, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (ii) of v, the USD/JPY pair will grow to the area of 145 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.7.
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XAUUSD - The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the fourth wave of the higher level (4), within which the wave C of (4) formed as a momentum and the fifth wave (5) started. Now, the first entry wave of the lower level i of 1 of (5) has formed, and the local correction has developed as the second wave ii of 1 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will grow within the wave iii of 1 to the area of 1857.25 – 1910.3. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1681.43.

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EURUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level C of (B) develops, within which the fifth wave v of (C) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is developing, within which the wave (v) of v of C is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the EURUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.98 – 0.97. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0082.

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GBPUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level V develops, within which the wave (1) of V forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (1) is developing, within which the wave iii of 5 is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the GBPUSD pair will fall to the area of 1.13 – 1.105. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1887.

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USDCAD - Candlestick Analysis

H4
On the 4-hour chart in the ascending trend channel below the level of 1.3207 there is a formation of a Hanging Man candlestick analysis pattern, signaling an impending price reversal, as well as two Shooting Star patterns, indicating weakening buyer activity. At the moment, above the level of 1.3089, a Three Black Crows figure has appeared, which similarly emphasizes the "bearish" sentiment for the instrument. The most likely is the decline of the asset to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454 after overcoming the lower boundary of the uptrend and the support level 1.3029. An alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3267 with the targets of 1.3425 – 1.3716. D1
On the daily chart at the level of 1.3207 there is a Shooting Star pattern, which is a reversal pattern at the top, as well as the formation of a Hanging Man confirming pattern, which appears in the area of high prices and signals that the asset has reached a local top. In this case, a downward scenario from the support level of 1.3029 seems more likely, and consolidation of the price below it will allow the "bears" to head to the zone of 1.2732–1.2454. Support levels: 1.3029, 1.2732, 1.2454 | Resistance levels: 1.3267, 1.3425, 1.3716

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XAUUSD - demand for physical gold declined sharply

According to the reports of the world's leading mints, primarily the US, August was the weakest month of this year in terms of sales of the precious metal: the US Mint sold 46,000K ounces of gold in the form of the American Eagle coin, which is 28% lower than in July and 66% down from August 2021 and American Buffalo coin sales were 17,500K ounces, down from 39,500K ounces in July.

Another worrying factor for the asset is the outflow of investors from ETFs. Thus, over the past week, metal stocks at the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) trust decreased by 11 tons, demonstrating negative dynamics for the tenth consecutive week, while net capital outflow in August was recorded at 456.0M dollars. Data from trading floors also confirm these changes in investment demand: according to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, the number of net speculative positions in gold decreased to 117.7K from 125.8K contracts. If you pay attention to the dynamics of trading, it is "bulls" that close more deals, which can serve as short-term support for quotes: last week, swap dealers liquidated sell positions by 5,296K, and buyers increased by 1,755K contracts. On the daily chart of the asset, the price is moving within a downward channel and, after reaching the low of the year, is preparing for a local reversal. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal, ignoring a possible local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept well below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is decreasing in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1727, 1802 | Support levels: 1696, 1640

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Crude Oil - growth ahead of OPEC+ meeting

Quotes of Brent Crude Oil are trading around 95, and the asset's volatility is very high ahead of the meeting of representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Last week, the key event was the decision of the G7 countries to introduce new restrictions on the supply of Russian oil: it is supposed to set a price ceiling for raw materials and prohibit the insurance of ships transporting them at a higher cost. Deputy Chairman of the Russian government, Alexander Novak, has already stated that official Moscow will not sell energy resources to those states that use non-market pricing schemes and intends to reorient itself to other regions. Thus, this decision will have almost no effect on the volume of exports of Russian oil in the world, and pressure on energy prices will be minimal.

Today at 12:00 (GMT+2), the leaders of the OPEC+ countries will discuss the parameters for implementing the oil production agreement for the period from October to the end of this year. According to preliminary information, the cartel intends to maintain the current agreements on a gradual increase in production by 100K barrels per day, which is another positive factor for the market. At least Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak and Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman have already spoken about this. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a downward correction to the global uptrend, and after reaching the July low at 91.00, it is reversing upwards. Technical indicators slowed the decline: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator was close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 97.26, 103.5 | Support levels: 91.48, 85.6

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S&P 500 - Growth in the US bond market is a catalyst for the correction of the index

The US stock market continues to trade in a downtrend, despite the positive corporate reporting. Quotes of the S&P 500 index are currently correcting downwards to the area of 3926.

American automaker Ford Motor Co. reported an increase in sales in August by 27.3% compared to the same period a year earlier, while the total number of cars sold was fixed at around 158.088 thousand vehicles. The same figure for electric vehicles quadrupled to 5.9 thousand cars. The day before, the developer of semiconductor products Broadcom Inc. published its financial results, reporting a 1.7-fold increase in net profit. The company posted 8.46 billion dollars in revenue, beating analysts' estimate of 8.41 billion dollars, and posted earnings per share of 9.73 dollars. The index quotes fell below the support line of the local uptrend, trying to consolidate in the downtrend. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which they have issued recently: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram, holding in the sell zone, is forming descending bars.

Support levels: 3878, 3641 | Resistance levels: 3992, 4180

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The second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, ETH, is trading within a correction to the recent significant decline, consolidating around 1644.

ETHUSD, H4
The four-hour chart of the asset shows that the downward movement is developing within the framework of a possible Step pattern, where the second and last step has almost completed their formation. According to the implementation theory, in this case, the current global trend will continue, and the key support for the price will be the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 1517, the breakdown of which will open the way for quotes to the 1252 area.

ETHUSD, D1
On the daily chart, a corrective upward wave is forming, which has recently consolidated below the support line of the local Flag pattern around 1660. The key support at the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 1517 has not yet been broken, which allows traders to hope to hold their positions at the current values for some time.

Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal, ignoring the local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 1900, 2200 | Support levels: 1517, 1252

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USDCHF - Candlestick analysis

H4
On the four-hour chart, at the resistance level of 0.983, there is the formation of a reversal candlestick analysis pattern Dark-Cloud Cover, as well as a Shooting Star pattern, signaling a shift in forces towards sellers. In addition, it is worth noting the appearance of two Hanging Man patterns at once, which confirm the achievement of the top by the asset, and the Doji pattern above the level of 0.977, which warns of uncertainty in the market and an imminent trend change in the USDCHF pair. Thus, the most likely scenario is the asset's decline to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will intensify the negative dynamics up to the level of 0.9383. An alternative scenario is possible if the "bulls" manage to consolidate their positions above the resistance level of 0.9830, then the price may recover to the zone of 0.9944 – 1.0064. D1
On the daily chart, a Long-Legged Doji candlestick pattern is being formed, which notifies of a price reversal at the top, as well as a Bearish Engulfing pattern, signaling a loss of control over the market by buyers. In the current situation, most likely, the asset will go down to the support level of 0.9693, the overcoming of which will allow quotes to continue moving towards the area of 0.95 – 0.9383.

Support levels: 0.9693, 0.95, 0.9383 | Resistance levels: 0.983, 0.9944, 1.0064

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USDJPY - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 formed and a downward correction ended as the fourth wave iv of 3. Now, the fifth wave v of 3 is forming, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has developed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (ii) of v the USDJPY pair will grow to the area of 145 – 150. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 135.
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Silver - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level develops as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of C of (2) is developing, within which the wave (iii) of v is forming.

If the assumption is correct, the pair XAGUSD will fall to the area of 15.8 – 14.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 20.91.

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FTSE 100 - the stock market shows an upward trend

The key event, which continues to influence all segments of the UK market, remains the results of the elections for the post of Head of the Conservative Party and of the British government, which were won by Liz Truss, who until now held the position of Secretary of Foreign Affairs. She overtook her main opponent, former finance minister Rishi Sunak, with 81.326 thousand votes. The official will have a rather tense start to her post as the national economy is in dire need of support and the population is counting on additional subsidies to pay for skyrocketing electricity and heating bills. Incumbent officials resigned ahead of the formation of a new cabinet: Home Secretary Priti Patel, Government Minister of State Nigel Adams, Home Office deputy head for security Stephen McPartland and Culture Minister Nadine Dorries. It is still difficult to assess what innovations in domestic policy will be adopted, but experts are confident that Liz Truss will continue the course of the previous Prime Minister Boris Johnson and serious changes should not be expected.

The index quotes are traded within the global side channel, approaching the lower border. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal, which has not weakened even against the background of the current upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations continues expanding and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms descending bars.

Support levels: 7177, 6994 | Resistance levels: 7335, 7565

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AUDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C ended and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C, within which the wave C of (2) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of C has formed, a correction has developed as the fourth wave iv of C, and the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the wave (iii) of v is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the AUDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.66 – 0.645. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.701. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Shares of The Walt Disney, the leader in the global entertainment industry, are on a corrective downtrend at 110.

On the daily chart, the quotes have left the global downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 80–108, having overcome the resistance line at 107 with a gap that can be worked out this week. On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that despite the working out of the price gap of 108–117, the downside movement potential is limited. The most promising at the moment looks like a possible reversal and subsequent growth of the asset with the consolidation above the initial correction level of 23.6% Fibonacci around 117. Technical indicators hold a buy signal despite a significant slowdown: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range actively narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.

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NZDUSD - A fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B. Now, the wave C of (B) is forming, within which a local correction has ended as the fourth wave of the lower level iv of C and the fifth wave v of C is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the NZDUSD pair will fall to the area of 0.58 – 0.5474. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6259.

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XAUUSD - Quotes failed to consolidate at the August highs

Gold prices are moderately declining, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The XAU/USD pair failed to consolidate on Tuesday at its local highs of August 30, reacting to the publication of positive macroeconomic statistics from the US. The downtrend in demand for gold, which began in early August, is still observed. According to the report of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week the number of net speculative positions in the precious metal corrected from 125.8 thousand to 117.7 thousand, thus, the tendency for sellers to reduce their positions continues. "Bears" still hold the lead in market positions, but the number of positions of "bulls" has also significantly adjusted, amounting to 21.925 thousand against 53.688 thousand for sellers. This week, buyers liquidated 0.615 thousand contracts, while sellers liquidated 2.989 thousand. Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a moderate decrease. The price range widens marginally, following the resumption of "bearish" momentum in the ultra-short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards after a short rise at the end of the last trading week, indicating the risks of the development of "bearish" dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 1700, 1720, 1730, 1752.87 | Support levels: 1688.5, 1675, 1660.1, 1644.3

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USDCAD - Pending Bank of Canada interest rate decision

The Canadian currency could not resist the pressure from the US dollar for a long time, and the USDCAD pair reached annual highs of around 1.322. Even today, the direction of quotations may change after the Bank of Canada announces its decision on the interest rate.

Most experts suggest that 75 basis points will increase the rate, and the interest rate will reach 3.25%, making it the highest among the world's leading economies. Several experts are confident in a more serious change in value against the backdrop of positive data on Canada's gross domestic product (GDP), which added 0.8% in the second quarter, which allows the regulator to act more aggressively without fear of a recession in the economy.

The US dollar topped 110 in the USD Index for the first time since 2002 and is currently holding at 110.4 following the release of the non-manufacturing PMI, which hit 56.9 in August, well above analysts' forecast of a decline to 55.1 points. Today, members of the US Open Market Committee Thomas Barkin and Loretta Meister will make speeches, from which traders expect hints on further actions of the regulator in the field of monetary policy and, in particular, on the issue of changing interest rates. On the daily chart of the asset, the trading instrument is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries 1.2700–1.3400, approaching the resistance line. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.3223, 1.338 | Support levels: 1.3118, 1.2887

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XRPUSD - Downward dynamics

The XRP coin is moving within a corrective sideways channel, reversing downwards, and is currently at 0.3166.

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, the local downward wave is a narrow corridor within which the price rebounded from the resistance line at 0.3417 and reversed downwards with the target at the lower border of the 0.27 range. Technical indicators gave a signal to sell: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone. D1
On the daily chart, a sideways channel forms with dynamic boundaries of 0.2950–0.4240, while the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.2950. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars. In general, both charts indicate a likely continuation of the downward movement, the global target is to exit the sideways channel and decline to a historical low of around 0.2350.

Resistance levels: 0.3520, 0.4215 | Support levels: 0.2950, 0.2350

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